Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

Is that one back for summer 19?

It looks like it restarts on the 25th April 2019 and Cancun on the 23rd March and Sanford on the 22nd March 2019.

 

[Marko1]

Punta Cana does return in April 2019 on a one off at the end of the month. I'm guessing it would then continue onwards into summer 2019. Hurghada has been scheduled at twice a week for a while I think as was Orlando and Cancun

 

[Jerry]

Orlando and Cancun

I wouldn't be surprised if Cancun went to 2 weekly in 2019 and i also wonder if they will look at introducing Montego Bay in 2019 as well.

 

[forest1979]

If we get another LH and I think Montego Bay is a good shout, surely that’s a based 787 fur the summer at least? Would be great to get some double frequencies on cancun or Orlando

 

[Jerry]

If you look at BHX in the summer Orlando is only 1 weekly while Cancun and Punta Cana are 2 weekly. If they added a weekly Montego Bay then 2 weekly for CUN and PUJ 1 weekly for SFB and 1 weekly for SAL would be a based 787 schedule.

 

[superking]

I think you will find SAL being operated by a 787 this coming summer.

 

[superking]

Sorry if this is wrong forum.
I see the Turkish and Greek routes started to operate. Are these routes starting earlier this year as easter is a little earlier.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Sorry if this is wrong forum.
I see the Turkish and Greek routes started to operate. Are these routes starting earlier this year as easter is a little earlier.

The summer routes that seem to be operating with easyJet and Ryanair appear the same as last April, ie Heraklion and Chania respectively. Other easyJet Greek and Turkish routes (except Athens which is year-round) wil be starting towards the end of this month or early May.

What does seem different this year is Thomas Cook's earlier start to the Dalaman season with three departures shown on Mayfly for this week. easyJet doesn't begin its Dalaman service until the end of April - the same applies with Bodrum and various Greek island departures with EZY. I can't see any TUI flights to Greek island or Turkish destinations in Mayfly this week. I presume they wil begin later this month or in early May.

 

[Marko1]

Looking at jet 2 2019 release for bhx can't help wish we could have some of that too

 

[Jerry]

Maybe they'll look at BRS for 2020 or beyond. I think eventually they'll expand into the South West and hopefully South Wales as well.

 

[Aviador]

I can't believe this slipped under the radar but Airbus have cancelled the planned production of the 800 series of the Airbus 350. This means airlines will have fewer aircraft types to choose from and reduced options from airports with short runways. Likewise, airports with short runways will have fewer airlines to approach to discuss operating new long haul routes.

 

[Seasider]

The "spin doctors" never announce negative news.

 

[Jerry]

I wouldn't be surprised if they quietly cancel the A330 800neo as well in the end.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I can't believe this slipped under the radar but Airbus have cancelled the planned production of the 800 series of the Airbus 350. This means airlines will have fewer aircraft types to choose from and reduced options from airports with short runways. Likewise, airports with short runways will have fewer airlines to approach to discuss operating new long haul routes.

Even with aircraft that can use airports with shorter runways not all airlines will operate them there.

Thus far TUI seems to have no qualms about using the 787-8 at BRS even though Cancun is sometimes too far to reach without a MAN fuel stop. The unanswered question is which other airlines that operate the type will also be prepared to use them at BRS? Qatar would have been ideal with its 787-8s to Doha which is well in range, but it's highly unlikely that either Emirates or Etihad with the larger versions of the 787 or the A350-900/1000 in the case of Etihad would look to use them at BRS.

 

[Marko1]

To be honest it's all a bit academic . I think Qatar starting from Cardiff across the water more or less kills off a Middle East Route for the foreseeable future and given that Birmingham cannot sustain a daily New York also means I cannot see that happening again any time either. Given that there's no mention of a runway extension in the master plan consultation I think Bristol is content to have some long haul charter with the tui Dreamliner and that is it . What does however concern me is post 757 on the medium charters and the existing runway .

 

[TheLocalYokel]

To be honest it's all a bit academic . I think Qatar starting from Cardiff across the water more or less kills off a Middle East Route for the foreseeable future and given that Birmingham cannot sustain a daily New York also means I cannot see that happening again any time either. Given that there's no mention of a runway extension in the master plan consultation I think Bristol is content to have some long haul charter with the tui Dreamliner and that is it . What does however concern me is post 757 on the medium charters and the existing runway .

What I will find interesting is the airport's 'take' on the runway situation when it publishes the draft of its new master plan later this spring.

In the current master plan, produced in 2005, the 'no runway extension' was justified, not only on the cost and environmental burden, but on the new type of aircraft (the B787 and A350 were highlighted) then in development that the airport believed would be able to use the current runway on long haul with no load penalty.

We now know that the larger versions of these aircraft, the ones that many airlines are now settling on, almost certainly cannot use BRS in any meaningful way. I wonder therefore how the airport will 'sell' the idea of long haul in the future from the current runway.

 

[Marko1]

Winter 18/19 is looking really promising with significant increases from easyJet , Ryanair and tui. New routes include Valencia (2 weekly ) , seville ( 5 weekly ), Limoges (2 weekly) , knock (3 weekly), Naples (2 weekly ) , Catania (2 weekly), nice (2 weekly), marrakech (weekly), Hurghada ( 3 weekly ) , Lleida ( weekly) and Reykjavik ( not new but increases to up to 5 per week) . Together with frequency increases on a number of routes.

Only decreases are on flights to las palmas ( decrease of one) and lanzarote (decrease of two ).

 

[Marko1]

Apart from easyJet, tui and Ryanair, it all seems a little quiet on the route development front . It almost feels the growth is somewhat organic and to be expected. Doesn't seem to be any surprises at the moment ??

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Apart from easyJet, tui and Ryanair, it all seems a little quiet on the route development front . It almost feels the growth is somewhat organic and to be expected. Doesn't seem to be any surprises at the moment ??

It seems that Robert Sincalir's point about relying on existing carriers for growth (made in an aviation magazine a year ago) is being played out to the letter at the moment.

Ignoring third party carriers that can be anyone a tour operator or airline enters into a contact with, the last new airline was BACF that began operations last summer and will be back this summer. I think that WOW was the one before that, with Wizz before WOW. WOW has gone and Wizz's four routes are down to just one. Incidentally, that one route - Katowice - is still not bookable for next winter but neither it seems are any routes from KTW at present.

I've not heard even a hint that another airline might be in the frame. I've heard some what I consider dopey rumours about other things at the airport: the golf course is being bought by the airport to enable expansion of the airport site; the Silver Zone surface car park, already massively expanded last year, will be doubled in size (cars will be parked as far away as Redhill were that to happen); Ryanair is to base six aircraft; Jet2 definitely won't be coming.

This last lot came from someone I encountered at the airport recently who I had never previously met. He works there and told me he is a self-confessed aviation nut when I struck up a conversation with him.

I say dopey rumours, although the last two might conceivably have some basis although I've not heard them from others who I would regard as having a decent track record.

 

[Jerry]

Apart from easyJet, tui and Ryanair, it all seems a little quiet on the route development front . It almost feels the growth is somewhat organic and to be expected. Doesn't seem to be any surprises at the moment ??

It seems that Robert Sincalir's point about relying on existing carriers for growth (made in an aviation magazine a year ago) is being played out to the letter at the moment.

I think in a way what in BRS's greatest strength becomes when trying to attract new European airlines is thier biggest weakness and that is having such strong presence from both Easyjet and Ryanair. That is bound to make some airlines pause especially if a lot of people from the BRS catchment are still willing to travel to Heathrow especially on routes where there is only on daily flight. I'm an example of that, if Easyjet had a mid afternoon return at the latest from Madrid on Fridays instead of 23.00 i would be looking to fly with them, instead i'm going to fly with BA to LHR because the extra frequencies mean i get better flight times. I'd be surprised if a new airline turned up at BRS in the next couple of years.