Flybe

[Finger66]

I would guess the operating costs of a Dash may be a bit more supportive of point to point traffic, albeit high landing costs at LHR. That might give them a bit of time to look at interlines. VS or Star may be interested as may take business away from BAs over the hill connections. But who knows? It probably does all depend if these are just slot sitters as I think the demand is there with the right times!

 

[LBAYORKIE]

If they are slot sitters then I suppose Flybe won't have any incentive to negotiate a code share. However if they do announce cooperation with an alliance its a strong indication they have a commitment to the route.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I flying from Heathrow in September but am reluctant to book my connecting flight with Flybe, so could end up going from Manchester! There doesn't seem to be a phone number for Flybe help and they don't seem to respond on their Facebook page. Bit of a black hole.

 

[White Heather]

I flying from Heathrow in September but am reluctant to book my connecting flight with Flybe, so could end up going from Manchester! There doesn't seem to be a phone number for Flybe help and they don't seem to respond on their Facebook page. Bit of a black hole.

It's MAN that's the black hole. Passengers go in and are never seen again!
Why reluctant to book with Flybe?

 

[LBA4EVER]

It's MAN that's the black hole. Passengers go in and are never seen again!
Why reluctant to book with Flybe?

You mean the passengers are never seen again flying from LBA haha
The usual "we just fly from MAN"

 

[KARFA]

I can only assume they want it all on one ticket to protect the connection with the onward flight from LHR, and the MAN-LHR allows that, but as BE doesn't codeshare with anyone that wouldn't allow it?

Basically if you booked BE to get down to LHR you wouldn't have any protection for any onward connection. Any checked bags would not be checked through and you would have to collect them and go landside to re-check them.

 

[AirBingley]

Well hopefully around the launch of LHR I'm hoping for a blaze of glory on some code share news as I'm pretty sure they know they will need to do this to be commercial and make those slots pay

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I can only assume they want it all on one ticket to protect the connection with the onward flight from LHR, and the MAN-LHR allows that, but as BE doesn't codeshare with anyone that wouldn't allow it?

Basically if you booked BE to get down to LHR you wouldn't have any protection for any onward connection. Any checked bags would not be checked through and you would have to collect them and go landside to re-check them.

Absolutely correct. I wanted to enquire if they had any interline agreements in the offing.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Absolutely correct. I wanted to enquire if they had any interline agreements in the offing.

Without interline agreements they are only going to get point to point bookings. BA will always be the best chance of this route succeeding because of through ticketing and the number of connections they offer.

 

[lbaspotter]

Seems like Flybe can't please everyone because we've now got the ideal schedule we all wanted and have being crying our for, since bmi days. Early morning departure and late evening return.

Now if only it was British Airways!

But what's a to say if BA see Flybe hurting MAN services they eventually have to return to LBA to counter the competition. "Could be a win win situation all around"

 

[Aviador]

Seems like Flybe can't please everyone because we've now got the ideal schedule we all wanted and have being crying our for, since bmi days. Early morning departure and late evening return.

Now if only it was British Airways!

But what's a to say if BA see Flybe hurting MAN services they eventually have to return to LBA to counter the competition.

An interesting theory but in fairness usually if an airline retreats to Manchester it stays in Manchester. We have seen this time and time again with other routes and services, not just from LBA but also LPL.

 

[KARFA]

It is an important consideration if you are wanting to use the route to connect onwards, and I think without connecting passengers the route will not be sustainable long term. I think it is critical that BE do come up with a codeshare agreement with one of the main alliances.

 

[lbaspotter]

An interesting theory but in fairness usually if an airline retreats to Manchester it stays in Manchester. We have seen this time and time again with other routes and services, not just from LBA but also LPL.

In reality BA only came to LBA after they took over BMI and needed to use up the slots. We had 4:daily to start with but it was proven to be just a slot sitting exercise. One only has to look at the pax figures and the cuts which happened. We were down to 10x weekly when the service was suspended.

Yes I agree BA are the best for airline for the route due to the connections offered.

But how many times have we on here cried out for an early morning departure and late return? Which Flybe are now providing.

 

[KARFA]

In reality BA only came to LBA after they took over BMI and needed to use up the slots. We had 4:daily but it was proven to be just a slot sitting exercise. One only has to look at the pax figures.

For a slot sitter it lasted quite well at 8 years despite BA having lots of opportunities to use the planes and crew elsewhere

I had been keeping a watch on the passenger numbers on the CAA site over the years and I know the number of flights. I had assumed 5 rows of CE on average for the A319s since domestic CE started in April 2017 - that means 133 seats per flight. Based on that these are my guestimate figures for loads since it started in 2012:

2012 from December - 20,328 -> 27%
2013 - 118,717 -> 44%
2014 - 132,325 -> 54%
2015 - 148,796 -> 60%
2016 - 160,703 -> 60%
2017 - 162,042 -> 64%
2018 - 103,706 -> 76%
2019 - 100,189 -> 76%
2020 to March - 20,328 -> 71%

I don't think 76% odd loads even with sub optimal flight times is poor.

 

[lbaspotter]

For a slot sitter it lasted quite well at 8 years despite BA having lots of opportunities to use the planes and crew elsewhere

I had been keeping a watch on the passenger numbers on the CAA site over the years and I know the number of flights. I had assumed 5 rows of CE on average for the A319s since domestic CE started in April 2017 - that means 133 seats per flight. Based on that these are my guestimate figures for loads since it started in 2012:

2012 from December - 20,328 -> 27%
2013 - 118,717 -> 44%
2014 - 132,325 -> 54%
2015 - 148,796 -> 60%
2016 - 160,703 -> 60%
2017 - 162,042 -> 64%
2018 - 103,706 -> 76%
2019 - 100,189 -> 76%
2020 to March - 20,328 -> 71%

I don't think 76% odd loads even with sub optimal flight times is poor.

So now ask the question, why they haven't BA come back?

Because BA are not interested in LBA.

Instead the airport's CEO Vincent Hodder has seen BA left the door wide open and offered Flybe a deal they couldn't refuse. Now they are providing a service we have all cried out for since bmi left the LBA-LHR route?

 

[KARFA]

So now ask the question, why they haven't come back?

Because the route was heavily dependent on connections, and many of those long haul routes from LHR have not recovered yet.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

In reality BA only came to LBA after they took over BMI and needed to use up the slots. We had 4:daily to start with but it was proven to be just a slot sitting exercise. One only has to look at the pax figures and the cuts which happened. We were down to 10x weekly when the service was suspended.

Yes I agree BA were the best for airline for the route due to the connections offered.

But how many times have we on here cried out for an early morning departure and late return?

The BA route was probably marginally viable at best. A based aircraft with an early departure and late return would have resulted in more bookings however theres no way this extra traffic would have covered the cost of basing the aircraft.

FlyBe have set themselves up for a fall if they cant get a tie up with one of the alliances.

 

[lbaspotter]

As you say BA's service relied heavily on North America connections. The USA & Canada has been open for months now but we see no return to LBA.

So come on, let's be honest if BA wanted to keep that market they would have been back by now? They are not, simple as!

 

[KARFA]

The BA route was probably marginally viable at best.

I think it really depends on how you internally assign any fares between the short haul connection and the long haul flight - any domestic connection route can be made to look very profitable or a complete basket case depending on how you move that particular slider on the spreadsheet.

If I remember correctly BA's service relied heavily on North America connections. The USA & Canada has been open for months now but we see no return to LBA.

So come on, let's be honest if BA wanted to keep that market they would have been back by now? The not!

US-UK traffic and CA-UK is still not really back to normal yet.

EDIT: and LBAYORKIE makes the point below that many of the routes to Asia/Far East/China/HK remain effectively closed sadly.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

If I remember correctly BA's service relied heavily on North America connections. The USA & Canada has been open for months now but we see no return to LBA.

So come on, let's be honest if BA wanted to keep that market they would have been back by now? The not!

I dont know about that, the only person I knew was using it regularly was flying to/from Hong Kong.