Taking up your point about South West market size for Dublin these are the CAA stats for the route for the past four years prior to the pandemic. I've included BOH as Bournemouth/Poole and Dorset are included in the huge (area-wise) Government Region of the South West, even though realistically BOH is a South Coast airport.DUB is a strange route from the southwest. I suppose the airport that does best passenger wise is BRS as they support 2 operators to DUB in Aer lingus and FR.BOH has a bit of a hit and miss operation as Aer lingus and FR in the past has operated DUB and pulled the service. It would be nice to know what the passenger up take to BRS from the South west,but as a stand alone service from EXE has and will struggle for what ever reason.I have a feeling that Aer lingus have or will be doing the Dub route but like a lot of other routes from every where struggle due to covid 19. Now is not the time to start a new service from where to where with this covid thing going on.As any new route that start has lowish passenger numbers and with covid 19 around its makes any routes have lower passenger numbers and hope airlines hang on to what ever route they struggle on,but airlines are a buisness and they have to make money or the route gets pulled.Perhaps FR will try Dub from EXE when things pick up and if also FR are still at Exe in some way.
Aer Lingus Regional operates from Newquay to Dublin (currently suspended because of the pandemic effect with NYQ temporarily closed to airline traffic) so EXT could be an option. I doubt that there would be a big enough market from EXT for both Aer Lingus Regional and Ryanair to compete. The former would be a better option in my opinion given its US connectivity at DUB and the possibility of a more frequent service in time (say 2 x daily), whereas Ryanair at best would be unlikely to be more than a single daily flight on the 189-set B737-800s and point-to-point only.EXT under Flybe i believe was a daily flight. I can't see Aer Lingus operating to Exeter especially as I think Blue Islands is going to operate the route in the future i believe?
Let’s not forget aer lingus are currently operating from EXT on the Belfast route and we have an aer lingus owned maintenance subsidiary also based at EXT. that in mind I wouldent rule aer lingus out of more domestic routes from Exeter just yet.EXT under Flybe i believe was a daily flight. I can't see Aer Lingus operating to Exeter especially as I think Blue Islands is going to operate the route in the future i believe?
Have I misunderstood this part of your post? I ask because according to the CAA stats EXT-BHD did not operate in April, May, June or July in 2020, when from April to June no passengers were shown at the airport at all.EXT’s Belfast route is the only route that has not ceased to operate during the whole pandemic and has appeared to be a fairly full flight on the multiple times I have seen it come in.