DUB is a strange route from the southwest. I suppose the airport that does best passenger wise is BRS as they support 2 operators to DUB in Aer lingus and FR.BOH has a bit of a hit and miss operation as Aer lingus and FR in the past has operated DUB and pulled the service. It would be nice to know what the passenger up take to BRS from the South west,but as a stand alone service from EXE has and will struggle for what ever reason.I have a feeling that Aer lingus have or will be doing the Dub route but like a lot of other routes from every where struggle due to covid 19. Now is not the time to start a new service from where to where with this covid thing going on.As any new route that start has lowish passenger numbers and with covid 19 around its makes any routes have lower passenger numbers and hope airlines hang on to what ever route they struggle on,but airlines are a buisness and they have to make money or the route gets pulled.Perhaps FR will try Dub from EXE when things pick up and if also FR are still at Exe in some way.
 
DUB is a strange route from the southwest. I suppose the airport that does best passenger wise is BRS as they support 2 operators to DUB in Aer lingus and FR.BOH has a bit of a hit and miss operation as Aer lingus and FR in the past has operated DUB and pulled the service. It would be nice to know what the passenger up take to BRS from the South west,but as a stand alone service from EXE has and will struggle for what ever reason.I have a feeling that Aer lingus have or will be doing the Dub route but like a lot of other routes from every where struggle due to covid 19. Now is not the time to start a new service from where to where with this covid thing going on.As any new route that start has lowish passenger numbers and with covid 19 around its makes any routes have lower passenger numbers and hope airlines hang on to what ever route they struggle on,but airlines are a buisness and they have to make money or the route gets pulled.Perhaps FR will try Dub from EXE when things pick up and if also FR are still at Exe in some way.
Taking up your point about South West market size for Dublin these are the CAA stats for the route for the past four years prior to the pandemic. I've included BOH as Bournemouth/Poole and Dorset are included in the huge (area-wise) Government Region of the South West, even though realistically BOH is a South Coast airport.

Annual passenger numbers to Dublin from the below airports:

2016

Bournemouth 3,013
Newquay 21,753
Exeter 35,682
Bristol 399,094
Total 459,542

2017

Bournemouth 149
Newquay 24,028
Exeter 38,041
Bristol 429,794
Total 492,012

2018

Bournemouth nil
Newquay 29,156
Exeter 35,587
Bristol 429,127
Total 493,870

2019

Newquay 30,534
Exeter 32,947
Bournemouth 47,188
Bristol 421,494
Total 532,163

In total then it's give or take half a million annual passenger journeys in recent years. The overwhelming majority use Bristol: 86.8%, 87.3%, 86.9%, 79.2% between 2016 and 2019 respectively.

How many the Bristol total includes from the catchments of the other airports is not information that is publicly available, therefore it's not possible for a judgement to be made as to how many could be realistically captured by those other airports if extra services were available, although in 2019 when BOH contributed far more substantially the BRS percentage of the overall larger total fell.

Airlines would know the origin and final destination of most of their passengers but it appears thus far that they have decided they are better served as businesses by the current arrangements when it comes to linking Dublin. It remains to be seen what the post-pandemic era brings to the industry generally and to airports and their individual routes specifically.
 
EXT under Flybe i believe was a daily flight. I can't see Aer Lingus operating to Exeter especially as I think Blue Islands is going to operate the route in the future i believe?
 
EXT under Flybe i believe was a daily flight. I can't see Aer Lingus operating to Exeter especially as I think Blue Islands is going to operate the route in the future i believe?
Aer Lingus Regional operates from Newquay to Dublin (currently suspended because of the pandemic effect with NYQ temporarily closed to airline traffic) so EXT could be an option. I doubt that there would be a big enough market from EXT for both Aer Lingus Regional and Ryanair to compete. The former would be a better option in my opinion given its US connectivity at DUB and the possibility of a more frequent service in time (say 2 x daily), whereas Ryanair at best would be unlikely to be more than a single daily flight on the 189-set B737-800s and point-to-point only.
 
EXT under Flybe i believe was a daily flight. I can't see Aer Lingus operating to Exeter especially as I think Blue Islands is going to operate the route in the future i believe?
Let’s not forget aer lingus are currently operating from EXT on the Belfast route and we have an aer lingus owned maintenance subsidiary also based at EXT. that in mind I wouldent rule aer lingus out of more domestic routes from Exeter just yet.
EXT’s Belfast route is the only route that has not ceased to operate during the whole pandemic and has appeared to be a fairly full flight on the multiple times I have seen it come in.
 
EXT’s Belfast route is the only route that has not ceased to operate during the whole pandemic and has appeared to be a fairly full flight on the multiple times I have seen it come in.
Have I misunderstood this part of your post? I ask because according to the CAA stats EXT-BHD did not operate in April, May, June or July in 2020, when from April to June no passengers were shown at the airport at all.

The other months' passenger totals are shown as below - with March the first month when the pandemic effects began to be felt (as at other airports):

January 1157
February 1487
March 177
August 183
September 1011
October 723
November 451
December yet to be published
 
Obviously the pandemic continues to cast uncertainty around airport and airline plans but this press release sets out the flight programme (FLY) intentions at EXT for this year and next. The press release contains a link to the FLY programme for 2021 and 2022. If the pandemic is under control by next year it might be hoped that the programme will be expanded in 2022.

 
Obviously the pandemic continues to cast uncertainty around airport and airline plans but this press release sets out the flight programme (FLY) intentions at EXT for this year and next. The press release contains a link to the FLY programme for 2021 and 2022. If the pandemic is under control by next year it might be hoped that the programme will be expanded in 2022.

One can only hope! I have read somewhere this week that new airlines are routes are waiting to act, but their plans have all sat on ice for 12 due to obvious reasons.

I would hope to see KLM and BA to make an appearance with a LCY and AMS route and growth from Ryanair and aer lingus with a Dublin route. Tui, we know arnt afraid to offer up the goods when the passenger numbers allow. 2020 was due to a TUI boom for Exeter, but unfortunately Covid made sure that wasent going to happen.

Exeter seems to be the only airport in the south at the moment that is failing to grab new operators and routes. Newquay is currently better connected than Exeter, lets hope management decide to pull their fingers out soon.
 
One can only hope! I have read somewhere this week that new airlines are routes are waiting to act, but their plans have all sat on ice for 12 due to obvious reasons.

I would hope to see KLM and BA to make an appearance with a LCY and AMS route and growth from Ryanair and aer lingus with a Dublin route. Tui, we know arnt afraid to offer up the goods when the passenger numbers allow. 2020 was due to a TUI boom for Exeter, but unfortunately Covid made sure that wasent going to happen.

Exeter seems to be the only airport in the south at the moment that is failing to grab new operators and routes. Newquay is currently better connected than Exeter, lets hope management decide to pull their fingers out soon.
EXT had been doing particularly well pre-Flybe cessation and pre-pandemic. It had managed to get above its pre-'noughties' recession annual passenger total in the previous 12 months (something not achieved by larger airports at Liverpool, Newcastle, East Midlands and Cardiff) and looked set fair to continue passenger growth.

You mentioned TUI's planned 2020 expansion. There is no reason to suppose that it would not have continued to grow in 2021, or equally that when some sort of normality returns TUI will not resume its upward path.

DUB with Aer Lingus Regional would provide passengers with transatlantic connectivity - I doubt that Ryanair and Aer Lingus Regional on the Dublin route would be sustainable - and AMS with KLM an even greater international connectivity spread. Both hubs would be invaluable to travellers.

Post-pandemic will be a step into the unknown with airlines and airports. As with the 'noughties' recession the rate of recovery probably won't be a balanced one across the country's airports, with some airports doing considerably better than others. EXT has a lot going for it now to ensure that it is up with the better performers as the industry comes to grips with getting back on an even keel.
 
With reference to Aer Lingus and the Dublin route they haven't really replaced any of the lost Flybe Dublin routes from Exeter, Cardiff or Southampton. They've replaced some of the lost Flybe Belfast routes, sadly not all but don't seem interested in Dublin. With Ryanair operating out of BOH maybe they are EXTs best option in the future.
 
EXT had been doing particularly well pre-Flybe cessation and pre-pandemic. It had managed to get above its pre-'noughties' recession annual passenger total in the previous 12 months (something not achieved by larger airports at Liverpool, Newcastle, East Midlands and Cardiff) and looked set fair to continue passenger growth.

You mentioned TUI's planned 2020 expansion. There is no reason to suppose that it would not have continued to grow in 2021, or equally that when some sort of normality returns TUI will not resume its upward path.

DUB with Aer Lingus Regional would provide passengers with transatlantic connectivity - I doubt that Ryanair and Aer Lingus Regional on the Dublin route would be sustainable - and AMS with KLM an even greater international connectivity spread. Both hubs would be invaluable to travellers.

Post-pandemic will be a step into the unknown with airlines and airports. As with the 'noughties' recession the rate of recovery probably won't be a balanced one across the country's airports, with some airports doing considerably better than others. EXT has a lot going for it now to ensure that it is up with the better performers as the industry comes to grips with getting back on an even keel.
I quite agree EXT was doing incredibly well pre Flybe collapse- that said as someone who owns multiple business’s my self, I cant help but think- putting your eggs into one basket so to speak, is not good business.

which is exactly what Exeter had done with Flybe. As a result, we have many routes un-catered for. Will we see other airlines take up Ex Flybe routes? That’s down to management.

I think KLM will come on board at some point this year with AMS and I’m sure TUI’s offering will expand again over time. Tui have based an aircraft at Exeter for as long as I can remember, even through the air2000, first choice and Thompson days.

Ryan air’s plan with Exeter im not so sure of. I can’t help but wonder if they have been offered stupidly low costs to use Exeter for a period of time. I can’t help but think once this “cheap fee’s period” ends, they will up and leave, they certainly seem to be very cautious about offering too many routes here.

In my opinion management is Exeter’s biggest downfall. I know the previous MD has left... whether he has been replaced I don’t know - what Exeter needs is a MD with some fire in their belly! Regional connectivity is great, but we need European routes and more than a handful to put Exeter on the map.
 
I quite agree EXT was doing incredibly well pre Flybe collapse- that said as someone who owns multiple business’s my self, I cant help but think- putting your eggs into one basket so to speak, is not good business.

which is exactly what Exeter had done with Flybe. As a result, we have many routes un-catered for. Will we see other airlines take up Ex Flybe routes? That’s down to management.

I think KLM will come on board at some point this year with AMS and I’m sure TUI’s offering will expand again over time. Tui have based an aircraft at Exeter for as long as I can remember, even through the air2000, first choice and Thompson days.

Ryan air’s plan with Exeter im not so sure of. I can’t help but wonder if they have been offered stupidly low costs to use Exeter for a period of time. I can’t help but think once this “cheap fee’s period” ends, they will up and leave, they certainly seem to be very cautious about offering too many routes here.

In my opinion management is Exeter’s biggest downfall. I know the previous MD has left... whether he has been replaced I don’t know - what Exeter needs is a MD with some fire in their belly! Regional connectivity is great, but we need European routes and more than a handful to put Exeter on the map.
I don't believe that Matt Roach, the previous MD, has yet been replaced. The owners need someone to take the helm on a permanent basis as the industry (hopefully) recovers from the pandemic effects but I'm sure they are more aware of that than I am.

EXT was greatly in thrall to Flybe as you point out. For several years Flybe operated all the scheduled routes except the one to the Isles of Scilly with Scilly Skybus. I meant to make the point about relying heavily on one customer in my previous post but overlooked it.

Although there are still some former Flybe routes to be filled a positive aspect is that the likes of Loganair, Blue Islands, Aurigny and Aer Lingus Regional have stepped in to fill a number of the Flybe voids, leaving EXT much less reliant on one airline for the majority of its scheduled routes.

Most regional airports rely on ancillary revenue streams such as car parking and retail to drive the business these days which obviously requires footfall through the terminal. The quickest way of achieving that is with a decent low-cost airline network.

That really means easyJet, Ryanair, Jet2 or Wizz Air, although Jet2 is perhaps more akin to TUI these days and anyway is setting up a base along the M5 at that airport to the north of EXT. So if Ryanair doesn't increase its EXT presence Wizz might see an opportunity. Its UK company is increasingly beginning leisure flights to the usual sun spots and a few months ago announced a Cardiff base, initially with one aircraft. Other than a Polish route with its Hungarian company Wizz doesn't serve Bristol so the airline might see an opportunity to try to drive some BRS customers to the airports either side of it.
 

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