Longhaul from Bristol

[forest1979]

With Jet blue entering the trans Atlantic market in 2021, do we see an opportunity there?
Of course it’s all about London but it does show the market opening up from legacy carriers.
It’s been a bit of a drought as far as Bristol and possible long haul routes are concerned.. it would be nice to think the BRS team still have ambitions..
Any speculation or rumours out there?

 

[Jerry]

With Jet blue entering the trans Atlantic market in 2021, do we see an opportunity there?
Of course it’s all about London but it does show the market opening up from legacy carriers.
It’s been a bit of a drought as far as Bristol and possible long haul routes are concerned.. it would be nice to think the BRS team still have ambitions..
Any speculation or rumours out there?

I think you only have to look at where Delta has launched flights to from Boston to get an idea of where JetBlue will go. Gatwick, Manchester and Edinburgh are the likely candidates.

 

[Marko1]

With Jet blue entering the trans Atlantic market in 2021, do we see an opportunity there?
Of course it’s all about London but it does show the market opening up from legacy carriers.
It’s been a bit of a drought as far as Bristol and possible long haul routes are concerned.. it would be nice to think the BRS team still have ambitions..
Any speculation or rumours out there?

It is interesting to note that press releases these days never seem to mention any long haul ambitions. The fact that Birmingham and Belfast couldn’t retain their links to the US suggests a return is highly unlikely. I’m wondering how much of a blow the failure to acquire a Middle East route has played too.

Personally I think it’s probably better on getting a German route back that wasting time on long haul

 

[Kernow Bravo]

With all the ramifications of the 737 Max issues, I would imagine that the FAA will be minded to scrutinise both the 737 Max and the A32x neo in microscopic detail. After all, both are comparatively small airframes with large engines, and there are suggestions that this incompatibility is a root cause of the protracted Max grounding.

Politically the FAA will need to be seen to be doing a meticulous job and they will want to paint this as an industry-wide issue, rather than simply hanging Boeing out to dry, however deserving of such treatment they may be.

With this in mind I would be very surprised if Jet Blue are able to start TATL service in 2021 other than with widebodies and I don't think that was their plan. Even if they do start with 787/A350, we all know the BRS constraints in that regard.

Definitely agree from a BRS perspective that more (and more frequent) connections to nearby hubs allied to competitive pricing relative to non stops ex LHR is the way to go. ZRH would be a great place to start as the Brexit risks are mitigated to a certain extent.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

We aren't aware of the airport's current thinking about long-haul. The current master plan, published 13 years ago, reckoned that demand for scheduled long-haul was limited and suggested that only four routes would be likely to be viable: three to the USA including New York (which was being operated at the time by Continental to Newark) and one to the Middle East. Long-haul charter was thought then to be in more demand (but charter flights would doubtless have a lesser frequency than scheduled long-haul).

Until the new master plan is published we won't know if the airport's views on long-haul have altered.

Qatar was always going to be the MEB3 airline with equipment that could operate from BRS, so the inability to secure the route must have come as a disappointment to the airport. One of a number of reasons why the airline opted to go to CWL was the length of the BRS runway, or so it was hinted. Operationally there should be no reason whatever why a B787 could not operate BRS-DOH without load penalty - TUI's operate longer sectors non-stop to Florida and Cancun (most of the time with this destination - occasionally adverse winds dictate an outbound fuel stop). It seems though that the BRS runway doesn't satisfy Qatar's runway criterion in terms of length.

Whether the failure to attract Qatar has any bearing on other long-haul scheduled routes such as the USA is a moot point. The likelihood is that it plays little if any part. If a bigger airport such as BHX is struggling to get itself a transatlantic scheduled route then BRS is not likely to be ahead in that queue.

In recent years I've come round to the view that BRS should concentrate on what it is undeniably good at: servicing the short-haul market with an extensive array of routes many of which are business passenger orientated, and providing frequent connectivity to hubs such as AMS, DUB and BRU with the latter returning next week. FRA is desperately needed again both for its hub provision and because it's a major European business centre.

Direct scheduled long-haul is relatively easily reached from the Bristol area in very large doses at LHR, whose popularity with the Bristol region was another of the Qatar CEO's reasons for not choosing BRS for his airline.

In addition, as has been said, Zurich would be another welcome addition but easyJet would be the most likely airline which would not help connectivity there. Finally, Turkish Airlines has long been tipped to make an appearance at BRS. Istanbul is not a long-haul route in itself but it feeds into a lot of long-haul routes flying east which is something currently lacking at BRS. Turkish would to an extent compensate for not having one of the MEB3 but not completely so.

 

[Jerry]

I'm not sure if I have asked this before but was Bristol to new York subsidised in any way by any organisation or a local authority?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm not sure if I have asked this before but was Bristol to new York subsidised in any way by any organisation or a local authority?

It was reported in the press that BRS gave Continental incentives. For example, this extract is taken from a Houston, USA, newspaper report about the route:

Airport authorities also offered Continental incentives to begin the service, including an agreement to suspend landing fees for the first three years.

There were also stories that the South West Regional Development Agency (regional development agencies no longer exist - they have been replaced in part by local enterprise partnerships) also provided the airport with financial support for infrastructure to enable CO to operate. Quite what that money was actually intended for I don't know - there was a suggestion that it was for such things as check-in desks although the rumoured sum involved would have paid for more than that.

If money was paid it must have been perilously close to illegal state aid under EU rules, although whether the SWRDA's status as a non-departmental public body made any difference I don't know. I wouldn't have thought so as the development agencies were set up and funded by central government.

I wrote to the SWRDA at the time seeking information but their reply was a typical government department/'quango' obfuscation and I was little wiser after receiving it.

Perversely, when BRS submitted their previous major expansion planning applications that were approved in 2011 the SWRDA was one of the formal objectors, as was the Bristol city council.

I'm not aware of BRS receiving any public money for anything other than the rumoured SWRDA contribution since being privatised. In the early decades of city council ownership at Lulsgate the Bristol rate payers regularly came to the rescue of the then loss-making airport.

 

[Jerry]

It was reported in the press that BRS gave Continental incentives. For example, this extract is taken from a Houston, USA, newspaper report about the route:

Someone put the info in a comment elsewhere on Facebook obviously about Cardiff airport and I'm not surprised that the airport waived landing fees for them as I suspect that often happens with new routes that airports will deem important. I know this is more Cardiff but it was also suggested that Bristol wouldn't report Cardiff for any government help with routes and airlines because there was help with that route in the past. Personally I doubt that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Someone put the info in a comment elsewhere on Facebook obviously about Cardiff airport and I'm not surprised that the airport waived landing fees for them as I suspect that often happens with new routes that airports will deem important. I know this is more Cardiff but it was also suggested that Bristol wouldn't report Cardiff for any government help with routes and airlines because there was help with that route in the past. Personally I doubt that.

I would not be surprised if the SWRDA had provided some funding for the CO route, although not directly to the airline, but I was never aware how much. £1.5 million was rumoured at the time. How they got around the state aid rules I don't know.

Since your earlier post I've done a Google search but I can't find anything to substantiate that. In their reply to my letter the SWRDA didn't deny providing funding to BRS in connection with the CO route, neither did they confirm it.

Instead they gave an outline of their purpose and their objectives in their area which were.

1. to further economic development and regeneration
2. to promote business efficiency and competitiveness
3. to promote employment
4. to enhance the development and application of skills relevant to employment
5. to contribute to sustainable development.

If BRS did receive public funding via SWRDA it was never challenged so would not amount to a 'skeleton in the cupboard' if BRS ever decided to pursue anything at CWL they believed to be illegal state aid.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

Air Transat targeting “cost conscious” business travellers – Business Traveller

The Canadian low-cost carrier wants to use its new A321LRs and increased UK frequencies to court SMEs…

www.businesstraveller.com

This might be an outside bet for BRS, but Air Transat is an airline with A321 LR aircraft on order, who are targeting budget conscious SMEs. Their commercial director for the UK and Ireland is quoted as saying:

“We want to drive awareness that people in the regions have good connectivity to Canada rather than having to fly or drive down to Heathrow.” Currently they are flying to Canada ex LGW, GLA, MAN & DUB.

Notwithstanding the potential acquisition of Air Transat by Air Canada, which from a competition perspective must be questionable, maybe this is an avenue for BRS to explore, particularly in a post-Brexit world?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Air Transat targeting “cost conscious” business travellers – Business Traveller

The Canadian low-cost carrier wants to use its new A321LRs and increased UK frequencies to court SMEs…

www.businesstraveller.com

This might be an outside bet for BRS, but Air Transat is an airline with A321 LR aircraft on order, who are targeting budget conscious SMEs. Their commercial director for the UK and Ireland is quoted as saying:

“We want to drive awareness that people in the regions have good connectivity to Canada rather than having to fly or drive down to Heathrow.” Currently they are flying to Canada ex LGW, GLA, MAN & DUB.

Notwithstanding the potential acquisition of Air Transat by Air Canada, which from a competition perspective must be questionable, maybe this is an avenue for BRS to explore, particularly in a post-Brexit world?

There is nothing like the volume of UK-Canada flights that were operating 15-20 years ago, when many smaller airports had a Canada route, invariably Toronto at the smaller airports. I read sometimes that this is because many passengers were VFR, and as the earlier generations fade away there is no longer such a demand for flights.

Speaking of long-haul from BRS generally, because of the seeming indefinite delay of the publication of the new master plan (the draft is yet to be published for consultation) we don't know the current airport policy regarding the subject.

I set out the airport's thinking on long-haul when it pubished the current master plan in 2006 at #425 above in which it will be seen that there was thought then to be limited demand for direct scheduled long-haul, although charter long-haul might be more viable, and so it has proved to be the case to some extent with TUI's transatlantic services, but no scheduled ones (although in 2006 BRS did have a regular NYC scheduled service with Continental to Newark).

 

[Severn]

I'm sure BRS would love to bring back a scheduled North America route, and I thought I'd compile a list of UK airports (outside of London) that have scheduled flights to North America. Interestingly now that Norwegian has ended transatlantic flights from the regions, Primeria and Thomas Cook now defunct, that only leaves London, Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow with connections to North America from the UK.

I didn't include TUI in the list as although you can book flight only options, it's not really a scheduled airline which provides usable flights to business and leisure passengers (plus most of their long haul flights don't appear in the search engines like skyscanner and google flights). Their flights don't provide any onward connections which is whyI've greyed out MCO flights too.

I chose a week in August 2020 (as there are a number of seasonal routes) and below shows the weekly departures:

Belfast (BFS)
-- USA
MCO - 1x VIR B747

Glasgow (GLA)
-- USA
JFK - 7x DAL B757
EWR - 7x UAL B757
MCO - 2x VIR B747
-- Canada
YYZ - 5x TSC A330 / 3x ROU B767
YHZ - 6x WJA B737

Edinburgh (EDI)
-- USA
PHL - 7x AAL B757
BOS - 7x DAL B757
JFK - 7x DAL B757
EWR - 7x UAL B757
IAD - 7x UAL B757
ORD - 7x UAL B757
-- Canada
YYZ - 4x ROU B767

Manchester (MAN)
-- USA
PHL - 7x AAL B767
BOS - 7x DAL B757
EWR - 7x UAL B767
IAH - 5x SIA A350
MCO - 14x VIR B747(13) & A330(1)
JFK - 7x VIR B747
ATL - 7x VIR A330
LAS - 6x VIR A330
LAX - 3x VIR A330
-- Canada
YYZ - 7x ROU B763 / 5x TSC A330
YVR - 3x TSC A330

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Scotland seems very well provided for. Whether that's because it's a long way from London I don't know.

Interestingly, the population of Scotland is only a few hundred thousand more the than that of the government region of the South West. With LHR 'just up the road' when it comes to long haul in terms of overall journey times (surface and air) I suppose that is the main reason for BRS's lack of transatlantic long haul - that in the inability to handle anything like a B 777 if there was a big demand.

I know that you use LHR on occasions, Severn - in another post you said you were at LHR today. Do you find it much of a hassle to reach from the Bristol area?

 

[BRSregular]

Edinburgh is probably well served as the tourists love it. I was in Edinburgh in October and the Americans were lapping up the bagpipes, whisky and cashmere!

and re LHR, the worst thing about going there at the moment is that endless 50mph roadworks stretch from Reading

 

[Kernow Bravo]

and re LHR, the worst thing about going there at the moment is that endless 50mph roadworks stretch from Reading

At the risk of digressing a little further, one benefit we have from this part of the world is that our most convenient London rail terminus is Paddington, where the Heathrow Express also terminates. Many people will overlook the GWR/HEx option due to the often extortionate fares on the latter, in favour of making the M4 trek, per the quoted comment.

However, Heathrow Express has recently undertaken a fare restructuring programme, which can be advantageous for those able to book a reasonable time in advance:

How to book online with Heathrow Express

Looking to book online with Heathrow Express for an upcoming holiday or business trip? This handy guide explains exactly how you can do that.

www.heathrowexpress.com

Crucially, the advance fares (starting at £5.50 single, then increasing incrementally) are now offered on weekdays as well as at weekends, subject to availability.

If you are able to plan your journey well in advance, to my mind this is worth investigating, particularly given the new GWR timetable introduced last month, as referenced elsewhere in this forum.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Edinburgh is probably well served as the tourists love it. I was in Edinburgh in October and the Americans were lapping up the bagpipes, whisky and cashmere!

and re LHR, the worst thing about going there at the moment is that endless 50mph roadworks stretch from Reading

GLA has a decent transatlantic programme too. My wife and I regularly visit Scotland and spend a lot of time in both Edinburgh and Glasgow (our favourite Scottish city - we prefer it to Edinburgh) and it's certainly true that the country does attract a lot of overseas visitors including North Americans. It must be supposed that the volume is sufficient to maintain a quite impressive array of transatlantic long haul.

Re the M4, the work is to convert a 32-mile stretch into a 'Smart Motorway' although there are conflicting views regarding the safety aspects. There are already sections of motorway converted to 'smart' including stretches of the M4 and M5 around Bristol. Whether it really helps the traffic flow is open to argument. At least when it's done the 50 mph speed limits should be removed.

At the risk of digressing a little further, one benefit we have from this part of the world is that our most convenient London rail terminus is Paddington, where the Heathrow Express also terminates. Many people will overlook the GWR/HEx option due to the often extortionate fares on the latter, in favour of making the M4 trek, per the quoted comment.

However, Heathrow Express has recently undertaken a fare restructuring programme, which can be advantageous for those able to book a reasonable time in advance:

How to book online with Heathrow Express

Looking to book online with Heathrow Express for an upcoming holiday or business trip? This handy guide explains exactly how you can do that.

www.heathrowexpress.com

Crucially, the advance fares (starting at £5.50 single, then increasing incrementally) are now offered on weekdays as well as at weekends, subject to availability.

If you are able to plan your journey well in advance, to my mind this is worth investigating, particularly given the new GWR timetable introduced last month, as referenced elsewhere in this forum.

A direct spur from the GWR main line into LHR is still under active consideration with Network Rail charged with developing a plan. It would see four trains per hour in each direction between Reading and Heathrow taking as little as 26 minutes to cover the journey. That would make it possible to reach Heathrow by rail from Bristol in not much more than 90 minutes and a little longer from Taunton.

That would be good for travellers but not for any hopes that BRS might still harbour of getting a transatlantic scheduled route. Part of the reason for the Bristol region's vibrant economy is its location at the western end of the so-called M4 corridor with LHR in relatively easy reach.

Western Rail Link to Heathrow - Network Rail

A proposed new direct rail link from the West to Heathrow will improve journeys to Britain’s busiest airport and help increase economic productivity in the Thames Valley. As part of our Railway Upgrade Plan the Department for Transport asked us to develop plans to build a new 6.5km rail link...

www.networkrail.co.uk

I came to the view some time ago that BRS should concentrate on what it's good at - building further on an already very decent short-haul programme. Any long haul scheduled transatlantic programme would never be huge and the Continental BRS-EWR route was always on borrowed time once the airline had gained access to LHR, something it didn't have when it began the EWR route from BRS. It switched its LGW-EWR service to LHR when it gained LHR rights so the BRS closure was inevitable (with the BRS aircraft moved to LHR to become a fifth daily service from there).

As Severn pointed out, even from EDI and GLA a lot of the transatlantic routes are seasonal (summer only), so unless the nature of aviation changes it seems extremely unlikely that BRS would get even a seasonal transantic scheduled route, let alone a year-round one meaning that business travellers and others would still have to use LHR in the winter.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

Time will tell whether the 3rd runway at LHR is stopped. If that is the case, the market circumstances may eventually become similar to the mid naughties when Bermuda II artificially limited UK/US carrier's access at LHR to BA, VS, AA & UA for operations to/from the USA.

Should capacity limits constrain LHR access in future, the market conditions may again encourage TATL from regional airports such as BRS, by which time Boeing may have sorted out the 737 Max issues to safely operate such routes.

 

[tpm]

What seems remarkable to me is that both Glasgow and Edinburgh have multiple(?) daily services to JFK/EWR even though they are within short driving distance from each other. Would have thought twice-daily flights (for each airline) from one location would make for a better product than flights at roughly the same time from two separate locations within spitting distance.

 

[Jerry]

What seems remarkable to me is that both Glasgow and Edinburgh have multiple(?) daily services to JFK/EWR even though they are within short driving distance from each other. Would have thought twice-daily flights (for each airline) from one location would make for a better product than flights at roughly the same time from two separate locations within spitting distance.

In a way 2 separate markets. Glasgow has very strong links with the Republican Irish community, is closer to the UK submarine base at Faslane, while also being the access point for the western highlands. Edinburgh has a financial community with Royal bank of Scotland and itself is a massive draw for American tourists not to mention being good access for Stirling and the more historical sites at Bannockburn and further on at St Andrews. Its also quite possible that many tour operators may start in one city and end in the other.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Time will tell whether the 3rd runway at LHR is stopped. If that is the case, the market circumstances may eventually become similar to the mid naughties when Bermuda II artificially limited UK/US carrier's access at LHR to BA, VS, AA & UA for operations to/from the USA.

Should capacity limits constrain LHR access in future, the market conditions may again encourage TATL from regional airports such as BRS, by which time Boeing may have sorted out the 737 Max issues to safely operate such routes.

As far as BRS is concerned they would have to get their current 10 mppa planning cap raised to take advantage. It would be ironic if the LHR third runway failed to progress because of planning decisions and BRS expansion was also blocked because of the planners.