2020 - a defining year for Bristol Airport's future?

[TheLocalYokel]

Those who follow aviation generally and Bristol Airport in particular will probably be aware that the past 35 years have been a period of almost unbroken growth for the airport, from 1986 when fewer than 500,000 passengers were handled to 2019 when the total will be just under nine million. The last five years have seen annual passenger numbers rise by over 40%.

The BRS ownership and management have a short to mid-term aim of handling 12 mppa - by the middle of the coming decade if things move as they hope - with 20 mppa a longer term aspiration. With the 12 mppa figure in mind they submitted infrastructure expansion plan applications to the local authority to enable such a number to be handled, together with a request for the current 10 mppa planning limit to be raised to 12 mppa. A year later and the local authority has still not set a date to determine the merits of the planning and annual capacity cap applications.

So clearly the first hurdle to be overcome if the airport is to progress is the ability to grow beyond 10 mppa. There are also ancillary issues relating to planning with limits set on night movements and a night noise quota, both of which are very close to being breached in the summer period (BST). The airport has asked the local authority for the seasonal limits, with winter (GMT) being generally underused, to be removed and spread throughout the year but with no overall increase. Within the last couple of years the airport also successfully applied to become a level 3 slot coordinated airport but only in summer and only between the hours of 2300 and 0700 in order to better regulate the night movements.

BRS also saw the demise of two of its important airlines in 2019 - flybmi and Thomas Cook - which together accounted for well over half a million passengers a year. Some of that lost capacity has already been replaced and more is due to be put back in 2020 with TUI and easyJet expanding their programmes.

Climate change is becoming an ever more dominant subject, with the aviation industry clearly in the sights of activists and others who are concerned. The industry is often disproportionately blamed for its part in producing greenhouse gas emissions but there is no doubt that the issue is beginning to strike a chord with many people, so that might become a brake on aviation growth across the country.

Brexit is another uncertainty at the moment when it comes to future travel between the UK and the European Union.

Hopefully a shorter term issue is the Boeing 737MAX but its problems do seem to be causing some airlines headaches in sourcing sufficient replacement aircraft whether leased, bought or ACMI. Ryanair appears to have reduced its presence at some airports because of the issue.

So whilst the last three issues are generalised, and do not potentially affect BRS in isolation, they could play a part in the airport's fortunes over the coming year, with some of them probably in evidence beyond 2020.

However, it's abundantly clear that by far the most important factor is the current passenger cap of 10 mppa. We might not get a final answer to that in 2020 if the local authority rejects the airport's application and the latter then appeals to the Planning Inspectorate whose decision would not be made known almost certainly until some time in 2021.

If any appeal was to fail the owners would be stuck with a vibrant facility unable to grow further because of external decisions unrelated to the health of the business.

 

[kraktoa]

With the Green Party winning just 1 seat and the Lib Dems ( we will ban domestic flights) losing seats in the GE, the climate change agenda will have lost some ground and momentum. Ex Rebellion think they have bigger fish to fry in London based airports and that activity at Bristol will not give them the world wide exposure they seek. So from this angle the airport can breathe easier. It no doubt will be an eventful decade which ever side wins.

The current CEO is an eloquent and Intelligent man. Very effective speaker unlike the previous antipodean incumbent I think. He could take the airport places.

 

[Jerry]

The whole environment issue might actually help Bristol in a way. If people fly less because of flight shaming that may well help to slow their growth down giving them more time to get the planning permission through for 12 million passengers.

 

[Jono577]

As much as I am all for trying to solve Climate change, the extra 2 million that BRI want to increase seem to seem pale into insignificance when you look at Beijing Daxing International Airport It was stated that it would consist of 7 runways, 6 for civilian use and 1 for military purposes. Construction has been completed as of September 2019 with a capacity of handling 75 million passengers by 2025 and they are already talking of making it larger and having to build more to keep up with demand. So perhaps Rebellion should go to China and get them to stop!! Just a though.

 

[forest1979]

Slightly off topic but about the future.. does anyone think Qatar would move its operation from CWL to BRS? Not suggesting based on anything specific (or to be controversial to CWL followers) but simply about traffic numbers through the airport and caption area..

different question but again thinking about where the airport is going... What are the comparative airports (passenger numbers) around Europe that are not summer traffic heavy and which have more than just Europe as it’s scheduled offering..

 

[forest1979]

Some time ago it was reported that the airport (going back a few years) was ensuring that they were 787 and A350 ready.. clearly we know about 787 operations but A350? Doable for ME traffic?

 

[Marko1]

Any rumours of anything new coming for 2020. I see easyJet has yet to fill the Thomas cook slots and if jet2 are to base somewhere new in 2021 it shouldn’t be long to hear about that too.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As much as I am all for trying to solve Climate change, the extra 2 million that BRI want to increase seem to seem pale into insignificance when you look at Beijing Daxing International Airport It was stated that it would consist of 7 runways, 6 for civilian use and 1 for military purposes. Construction has been completed as of September 2019 with a capacity of handling 75 million passengers by 2025 and they are already talking of making it larger and having to build more to keep up with demand. So perhaps Rebellion should go to China and get them to stop!! Just a though.

China is on a huge airport-building fest.

China Plans To Build An Astonishing 200 New Airports In The Next 15 Years

China has never done anything small. When it wanted to build a new train line, it built miles…

simpleflying.com

And India is not far behind.

Indian Airports: India plans to open 100 airports in five years

In order to revive economic growth, India is planning to open 100 additional airports by 2024.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Slightly off topic but about the future.. does anyone think Qatar would move its operation from CWL to BRS? Not suggesting based on anything specific (or to be controversial to CWL followers) but simply about traffic numbers through the airport and caption area..

different question but again thinking about where the airport is going... What are the comparative airports (passenger numbers) around Europe that are not summer traffic heavy and which have more than just Europe as it’s scheduled offering..

I doubt very much that Qatar would switch from CWL to BRS. I don't see any imperative that would drive such a move. Nothing seems to have changed since Qatar made its decison to operate from CWL with a clear implication that it would also be seen as the West Country's ME airport given that the airline's CEO quoted CWL as having a catchment of over six million people, twice the population of the whole of Wales.

As to your second point, I'm not totally clear about the question you are asking.

Some time ago it was reported that the airport (going back a few years) was ensuring that they were 787 and A350 ready.. clearly we know about 787 operations but A350? Doable for ME traffic?

Clearly BRS is able to operate 787s - with the 8 series as well as the 9 series having operated from the airport. Given that Doha, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are all significanty closer than Florida and Mexico there would seem to be no operational impediment to operating these aircraft to the ME although the MEB3 airlines might want an air bridge I suppose. As far as I know, no version of the A350 has operated to BRS therefore it would need someone with technical knowledge to comment on that aircraft type and its usefulness or otherwise to BRS.

 

[Jerry]

Slightly off topic but about the future.. does anyone think Qatar would move its operation from CWL to BRS? Not suggesting based on anything specific (or to be controversial to CWL followers) but simply about traffic numbers through the airport and caption area.

I don't see that happening. The question should be if BRS in the future could attract Emirates or Turkish.

 

[superking]

When the terminal was extended it was said at the time it would take the B787 series and the Airbus A350 series as they did some modifications for the Airbus aircraft. Heard nothing on that front since that was announced,or I missed it.Back along there was talk of BRS talking to an unnamed airline with A350 aircraft doing long haul and that has gone quiet as well.

 

[forest1979]

That’s what I remember. Be interesting to know now with the 350 being popular and more options with airlines available.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2020 is certainly a defining year for the airport's future, at least in the short term, but no-one expected the catastrophic virus effects.

I've sometimes used a caveat of unexpected catastrophic events when musing on airports' future growth (not just BRS). I never really believed that one would arrive with the ferocity of the virus.

 

[Marko1]

I think this winter is going to be very ropey. If the canaries are not put back on the air bridge list there would be no tui and virtually no easyJet. The way easyJet is cutting left right and centre I don’t think they can be relied upon this winter . To give credit to Ryanair they appear to have operated everything they planned to operate this summer.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think this winter is going to be very ropey. If the canaries are not put back on the air bridge list there would be no tui and virtually no easyJet. The way easyJet is cutting left right and centre I don’t think they can be relied upon this winter . To give credit to Ryanair they appear to have operated everything they planned to operate this summer.

easyJet were certainly more cautious than Ryanair at BRS when services began to restart in early July. By August easyJet was operating at least twice as many daily flights as Ryanair, more on some days.

You are right about Ryanair eventually operating nearly all the routes they had in their programme before the virus struck, albeit some were at reduced frequency. The only route that didn't operate was the new one to Brest (a first for BRS by any airline so far as I can determine). I thought that Brest was an odd choice even before Covid. Dinard didn't work for Ryanair so why would Brest?

In a 'normal' winter easyJet had developed a wide-ranging programme with the Canaries obviously important but not pivotal. Whatever they are currently showing for winter cannot be relied upon because no-one can foretell the virus ramifications throughout the coming winter, and that also applies with other airlines and other airports.

I posted elsewhere recently that it took BRS six years to regain the passenger numbers it lost because of the major recession earlier this century, and BRS rode out that recession better than most UK airports. Some airports have yet to regain their pre-recession passenger numbers a decade later. Given that the pandemic has been far, far worse than the recession in its affect on aviation we can only hope that the industry can somehow come through it relatively unscathed.