CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Birmingham Aviation]

The general increase in flights will account for much of it. As Mullion said, mainly the easyJet, Ryanair and Jet2 services. The European mainline carriers seem a bit stagnant at the moment.

All these low cost carriers will carry about 3,4 million during winter.
I’m talking about international airlines ur Turkish,Pegasus,Emirates,Saudia and Qatar

 

[HPsauce]

I can't see great improvements this year from those carriers to affect the forecast 14m by next April.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I’ve heard rumours of AI B77W operating this winter due to high demand.

 

[LichfieldBlue]

Last year was a leap year so the daily average in February 2024 was 26438 pax. Extrapolating that out to compare Feb 25 the average daily pax was 29277. So a growth of 10.8% year on year for the comparable month, which seems very healthy. Or have a missed something?

 

[IanFarquharson]

I’ve heard rumours of AI B77W operating this winter due to high demand.

News to me !

Last year was a leap year so the daily average in February 2024 was 26438 pax. Extrapolating that out to compare Feb 25 the average daily pax was 29277. So a growth of 10.8% year on year for the comparable month, which seems very healthy. Or have a missed something?

Thats correct for February
March average daily pax was 30,538
April average daily pax will be around 36,500
May avergae daily pax will be around 41,500

 

[rollo]

That sort of increase would come from european not long haul, so must be likes of

Yes that's got to be correct the three additional aircraft that EasyJet and Ryanair are basing will make up the bulk and any long haul would add a relatively small but welcome increase For comparison Saudi carried circa 6400 passengers in February while a single 737 operating say three rotations at a load factor of 80% equates to around 840 passengers for a single day or 26000 per month even averaging out at 2.5 rotations that's 750,000 additional passengers.

The real volume increases for the forseable future so far as I can see realistically must come from Easy or Ryanair, long haul adds prestige LCC adds volume

BHX will pretty much know what is already in the pipeline to make their forecast.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I’m just wondering how the airport is going to hit 14 million this year.
HP said Ryanair,Jet2,Tui and EasyJet will be the majority holder of numbers and that’s correct.

Winter is busy in the months of November and December.
January,February are the quieter months.

The 4 lcc only hold majority of probably around 7/8 million passengers annually and rest of European airlines make up for around 2/3 million and international airlines 3/4 million.

Remember we could have Austrian airlines back this year.Thats if they will ever comeback.

I really want to know how they are wanting to hit 14 million this year

 

[rollo]

It go

I’m just wondering how the airport is going to hit 14 million this year.
HP said Ryanair,Jet2,Tui and EasyJet will be the majority holder of numbers and that’s correct.

I really want to know how they are wanting to hit 14 million this year

Patience may be needed but It's got to come from EasyJet ( 5 based in winter?) and Ryanair they will have (hopefully)bigger winter programmes while Jet2 will add little in terms of additional volume and TUI are stagnating at best.

In the end its a forecast not a certainty however the airport are best placed to know.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I’m just wondering how the airport is going to hit 14 million this year.
HP said Ryanair,Jet2,Tui and EasyJet will be the majority holder of numbers and that’s correct.

Winter is busy in the months of November and December.
January,February are the quieter months.

The 4 lcc only hold majority of probably around 7/8 million passengers annually and rest of European airlines make up for around 2/3 million and international airlines 3/4 million.

Remember we could have Austrian airlines back this year.Thats if they will ever comeback.

I really want to know how they are wanting to hit 14 million this year

They are saying 13.8m by 31 March 2026

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

They are saying 13.8m by 31 March 2026

Cheers Ian.

I’m interested to know what to expect this winter.
EasyJet new routes:Already have Derry and Lanzarote.
Jet2 city/Christmas markets:Tallin,Cologne and more frequencies on Funchal ,Porto and Canary Islands.
Ryanair uploads on other routes like Bucharest,Krakow,Paris and Budapest.

Don’t know how we will hit that 13.8

 

[Scottie Dog]

I appreciate that you have probably had enough of statistics, but here is my take on the CAA February data.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Cheers Ian.

I’m interested to know what to expect this winter.
EasyJet new routes:Already have Derry and Lanzarote.
Jet2 city/Christmas markets:Tallin,Cologne and more frequencies on Funchal ,Porto and Canary Islands.
Ryanair uploads on other routes like Bucharest,Krakow,Paris and Budapest.

Don’t know how we will hit that 13.8

Quite easy when you do the maths

31.03.26 = 13,800,000
31.12.24 = 12,848,000
Increase = 952,000

952,000 divided by 15 months = 63,467 pax per month

63,467 divided by 30 day in month (average) = 2,116 pax per day

2,116 = 1,058 departing & 1,058 arriving

1,058 divided by 190 sets (average Ryanair & Esayjet config) = 5.568

So all we need is 6 extra departures per day

We have 2 extra Easyjet and 1 extra Ryanair both doing 2 departures per day

So sorted !

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Thank you Ian.

Been looking numbers for Amritsar,Delhi,Dubai,Doha and Jeddah.

They continue to impress

 

[AdamHussain07]

Is there any way to see the data for the Saudia flights? I’d be curious to know how they’re doing.

Thought I’d mention that both of my flights in January and December were quite full to the rafters.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Is there any way to see the data for the Saudia flights? I’d be curious to know how they’re doing.

Thought I’d mention that both of my flights in January and December were quite full to the rafters.

The answer is above !

6,381 pax in February
24 sectors
266 pax per flight

 

[AdamHussain07]

The answer is above !

6,381 pax in February
24 sectors
266 pax per flight

Oh, thank you very much. I’ve got to say that those are some very promising numbers. Especially as a good chunk of those flights were on a 787-9 (298 seater) and some 787-10 flights sprinkled in.

 

[Hassaan]

What's BHX's current capacity? I read something like them being able to handle 17 million passengers.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Today should be BHX's busiest ever April daily figure and the rolling 12m figure back at record levels.

It is been a tough 7.5 years to get back above 13.060m

What's BHX's current capacity? I read something like them being able to handle 17 million passengers.

BHX should see August at around 1.525m pax, so if there are no issues at this level then the terminal capacity is just over 18mppa

 

[Matt995]

February 2025 estimated load factors:-

Airport	February Passengers	February Seats	February Load Factor
AGADIR (AL MASSIRA)	6,259	7,073	88%
ABERDEEN	3,958	6,318	63%
ALICANTE	26,351	30,920	85%
AMRITSAR	7,518	8,192	92%
AMSTERDAM	46,611	56,929	82%
ANTALYA	10,493	12,856	82%
ARRECIFE	20,309	24,327	83%
ATHENS	1,601	1,890	85%
BARCELONA	19,138	22,260	86%
BEAUVAIS	7,732	10,776	72%
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST)	13,220	15,928	83%
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	28,944	35,208	82%
BERGAMO	3,314	3,892	85%
BERGEN	133	189	70%
BERLIN BRANDENBURG	5,260	6,064	87%
BOA VISTA (RABIL)	4,312	4,536	95%
BRIDGETOWN	10,487	11,130	94%
BRUSSELS	3,343	5,928	56%
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI)	14,156	15,274	93%
BUDAPEST	9,643	11,618	83%
BYDGOSZCZ	6,006	6,522	92%
CANCUN	4,657	5,170	90%
CHAMBERY	5,387	7,371	73%
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON)	2,075	3,040	68%
COPENHAGEN	1,979	3,066	65%
CORK	5,836	7,310	80%
CRAIOVA	2,734	2,928	93%
DELHI	5,858	6,144	95%
DOHA HAMAD	13,732	14,224	97%
DUBAI	47,735	57,704	83%
DUBLIN	66,601	77,478	86%
DUSSELDORF	7,353	14,042	52%
EDINBURGH	27,701	37,249	74%
ENFIDHA - HAMMAMET INTL	4,767	5,811	82%
ENONTEKIO	679	756	90%
FARO	10,833	13,377	81%
FRANKFURT MAIN	14,898	23,166	64%
FUERTEVENTURA	14,839	17,670	84%
FUNCHAL	4,213	4,880	86%
GENEVA	22,883	32,274	71%
GLASGOW	9,330	12,252	76%
GRENOBLE	2,407	3,213	75%
GUERNSEY	2,234	3,900	57%
HURGHADA	5,200	5,646	92%
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE	2,616	3,024	87%
INNSBRUCK	5,023	6,368	79%
IRELAND WEST(KNOCK)	2,916	3,418	85%
ISLE OF MAN	1,140	2,736	42%
ISTANBUL	16,582	18,743	88%
ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	4,744	6,582	72%
JEDDAH	6,381	8,450	76%
JERSEY	1,982	2,976	67%
KEFLAVIK	4,262	5,628	76%
KITTILA	179	189	95%
KRAKOW	16,151	17,873	90%
KUUSAMO	1,239	1,323	94%
LA ROMANA	2,535	3,125	81%
LAS PALMAS	12,565	15,204	83%
LISBON	5,201	6,112	85%
LODZ LUBLINEK	3,097	3,418	91%
MADRID	3,488	3,892	90%
MALAGA	22,583	27,454	82%
MALTA	8,388	9,972	84%
MARRAKESH	10,552	11,641	91%
MILAN (MALPENSA)	2,389	2,976	80%
MONTEGO BAY	2,346	2,450	96%
MUNICH	7,327	10,800	68%
MURCIA INTERNATIONAL	4,504	5,340	84%
OPORTO (PORTUGAL)	4,336	5,151	84%
PALMA DE MALLORCA	4,250	5,608	76%
PAPHOS	3,606	4,519	80%
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	30,303	36,607	83%
PLOVDIV	1,520	1,890	80%
POZNAN	2,637	3,088	85%
PRAGUE	4,890	6,000	82%
ROME (FIUMICINO)	5,252	5,942	88%
SALZBURG	2,588	3,024	86%
SEVILLE	3,047	3,426	89%
SHANNON	4,434	5,388	82%
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)	6,638	7,134	93%
SOFIA	7,586	8,476	89%
STUTTGART	333	624	53%
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	34,468	41,012	84%
TIRANA	90	219	41%
TOULOUSE (BLAGNAC)	1,452	1,512	96%
TREVISO	1,701	3,088	55%
TURIN	3,958	5,086	78%
VALENCIA	2,391	3,024	79%
VENICE	1,464	1,890	77%
VERONA VILLAFRANCA	5,097	6,301	81%
VIENNA	1,411	1,890	75%
ZURICH	5,231	9,586	55%

 

[Nethercote2019]

February 2025 estimated load factors:-

Airport	February Passengers	February Seats	February Load Factor
AGADIR (AL MASSIRA)	6,259	7,073	88%
ABERDEEN	3,958	6,318	63%
ALICANTE	26,351	30,920	85%
AMRITSAR	7,518	8,192	92%
AMSTERDAM	46,611	56,929	82%
ANTALYA	10,493	12,856	82%
ARRECIFE	20,309	24,327	83%
ATHENS	1,601	1,890	85%
BARCELONA	19,138	22,260	86%
BEAUVAIS	7,732	10,776	72%
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST)	13,220	15,928	83%
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	28,944	35,208	82%
BERGAMO	3,314	3,892	85%
BERGEN	133	189	70%
BERLIN BRANDENBURG	5,260	6,064	87%
BOA VISTA (RABIL)	4,312	4,536	95%
BRIDGETOWN	10,487	11,130	94%
BRUSSELS	3,343	5,928	56%
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI)	14,156	15,274	93%
BUDAPEST	9,643	11,618	83%
BYDGOSZCZ	6,006	6,522	92%
CANCUN	4,657	5,170	90%
CHAMBERY	5,387	7,371	73%
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON)	2,075	3,040	68%
COPENHAGEN	1,979	3,066	65%
CORK	5,836	7,310	80%
CRAIOVA	2,734	2,928	93%
DELHI	5,858	6,144	95%
DOHA HAMAD	13,732	14,224	97%
DUBAI	47,735	57,704	83%
DUBLIN	66,601	77,478	86%
DUSSELDORF	7,353	14,042	52%
EDINBURGH	27,701	37,249	74%
ENFIDHA - HAMMAMET INTL	4,767	5,811	82%
ENONTEKIO	679	756	90%
FARO	10,833	13,377	81%
FRANKFURT MAIN	14,898	23,166	64%
FUERTEVENTURA	14,839	17,670	84%
FUNCHAL	4,213	4,880	86%
GENEVA	22,883	32,274	71%
GLASGOW	9,330	12,252	76%
GRENOBLE	2,407	3,213	75%
GUERNSEY	2,234	3,900	57%
HURGHADA	5,200	5,646	92%
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE	2,616	3,024	87%
INNSBRUCK	5,023	6,368	79%
IRELAND WEST(KNOCK)	2,916	3,418	85%
ISLE OF MAN	1,140	2,736	42%
ISTANBUL	16,582	18,743	88%
ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	4,744	6,582	72%
JEDDAH	6,381	8,450	76%
JERSEY	1,982	2,976	67%
KEFLAVIK	4,262	5,628	76%
KITTILA	179	189	95%
KRAKOW	16,151	17,873	90%
KUUSAMO	1,239	1,323	94%
LA ROMANA	2,535	3,125	81%
LAS PALMAS	12,565	15,204	83%
LISBON	5,201	6,112	85%
LODZ LUBLINEK	3,097	3,418	91%
MADRID	3,488	3,892	90%
MALAGA	22,583	27,454	82%
MALTA	8,388	9,972	84%
MARRAKESH	10,552	11,641	91%
MILAN (MALPENSA)	2,389	2,976	80%
MONTEGO BAY	2,346	2,450	96%
MUNICH	7,327	10,800	68%
MURCIA INTERNATIONAL	4,504	5,340	84%
OPORTO (PORTUGAL)	4,336	5,151	84%
PALMA DE MALLORCA	4,250	5,608	76%
PAPHOS	3,606	4,519	80%
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	30,303	36,607	83%
PLOVDIV	1,520	1,890	80%
POZNAN	2,637	3,088	85%
PRAGUE	4,890	6,000	82%
ROME (FIUMICINO)	5,252	5,942	88%
SALZBURG	2,588	3,024	86%
SEVILLE	3,047	3,426	89%
SHANNON	4,434	5,388	82%
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)	6,638	7,134	93%
SOFIA	7,586	8,476	89%
STUTTGART	333	624	53%
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	34,468	41,012	84%
TIRANA	90	219	41%
TOULOUSE (BLAGNAC)	1,452	1,512	96%
TREVISO	1,701	3,088	55%
TURIN	3,958	5,086	78%
VALENCIA	2,391	3,024	79%
VENICE	1,464	1,890	77%
VERONA VILLAFRANCA	5,097	6,301	81%
VIENNA	1,411	1,890	75%
ZURICH	5,231	9,586	55%

Air India & Qatar both doing great again but still no sign of more expansion