Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

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Can we clarify what JFK is ?

Unless I missed it I'm not sure even what huge represents?
 
By my recknoning, Houston is around 143 average load. Down from what we've been used to but considering the situation in Houston, I don't think we should hold much weight on that figure.

Philadelphia - 190
Newark - 148

Although I'm not sure of how many sectors were operated, Vancouver seems around 285-307 which is very good. If someone can provide some clarity on how many sectors there were it would be good.
 
Newark - 148

Based on all B752, that is an average load factor of 87.5% Against the massive numbers to JFK this is pretty good.

Worth tracking this number, as it may support the rumours of an upgague to this service.
 
Delved into the US T100 passengers stats for January to March to get the airline per route per month breakdown. I've ignored the Jet2 Newark charter and a Thomson charter to Sanford:

21768171_10213296859432625_9216345909858876740_n.jpg
 
Cheers @David_itl for your work on this. Some interesting points:
  • It demonstrates the outbound nature of the market. A number of seasonal routes started in March (e.g. VS - SFO/BOS or AA JFK). The discrepancy between the outbound (from Manchester) to the inbound (to Manchester) on these routes is huge. The outlier to this is MIA. I cant explain this other than as part of a fly drive issue?
  • By way of contract, the year round service to EWR from UA seems pretty stable across the board. Averaging over 80% is generally a decent sign, so if the yield is good and UA want to pick up some of the premium traffic from AA the rumoured upgague may yet come to pass.
  • If you flew MCO-MAN on TCX in March, you might as well have had a private jet!
 
Time for my monthly review, however before I do, here is an update on the July Part 1 figures:

Monthly passenger - 3,029,332
Annual Total - 15,807,622
Moving Annual Total - 27,264,874
 
Manchester Statistics - August 2017 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

No new routes to report

Three domestic statistics are currently missing from the CAA report for August.

Belfast City, Belfast International and Inverness are again missing from the initial monthly statistics for August.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics

Monthly passengers - 3,165,031 + 7.9%
Annual Total- 18,972,653
Moving Annual Total - 27,493,488 + 11.6%

Monthly Movements - 19,948 + 4.8%
Moving Annual Movements - 195,422 + 10.6%

Manchester Statistics -August 2017 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

PALMA............................................. 134,269
ALICANTE......................................... 110,724
AMSTERDAM..................................... 93,846
DUBAI................................................ 89,852
DUBLIN.............................................. 86,998
MALAGA............................................ 85,602
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 82,094
FARO.................................................. 75,785
ORLANDO.......................................... 63,063
IBIZA................................................... 61,575
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 56,263
HEATHROW....................................... 55,815
BARCELONA....................................... 54,532
ARRICIFE............................................ 50,165
DALAMAN.......................................... 50,097
NEW YORK JFK................................... 43,441
ABU DHABI......................................... 42,573
PAPHOS.............................................. 41,637
HERAKLION........................................ 39,139
MAHON............................................. 36,439
CORFU................................................ 35,419
FRANKFURT........................................ 34,813
LAS PALMAS....................................... 33,757
DOHA................................................. 32,728
RHODES.............................................. 32,045

CAA statistics for August are provisional.

Manchester Statistics - August 2017 (Part 3)

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
TOULOUSE.......................................... 7,863............. 7,863.................. 0.................... 220.02
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)...................... 28,774.......... 28,774................... 0................... 161.92
CAGLIARI................................................ 240..................................... 240................... 155.32
MIKONOS............................................ 6,425............. 6,425................... 0.................. 139.47
HAMBURG........................................ 30,146........... 30,146.................. 0.................... 119.08
OPORTO............................................. 9,221............. 9,221................... 0.................... 115.39
BOSTON............................................ 10,449........... 10,449.................. 0.................... 115.35
SPLIT................................................. 14,384............ 12,291........... 7,219.................... 99.252
CUNAGUA........................................... 5,528............. 5,528................... 0.................... 98.492
OLBIA................................................. 6,252.............. 4,784.......... 1 ,468..................... 98.413
DUBROVNIK...................................... 20,294............ 20,294................. 0...................... 93.129
KRAKOW........................................... 13,802............ 13,802.................. 0..................... 90.425
ILHA DO SAL CAPE VERDE.................. 5,820............... 5,820................. 0..................... 85.883
HURGHADA........................................ 8,764.............. 8,764.................. 0.................... 81.074
SALONIKA......................................... 11,249.............. 7,848............ 3,401................... 69.362
CATANIA (FONTANAROSSA)............... 7,523.............. 6,068........... 1,455.................... 64.725
LOS ANGELES...................................... 7,694............... 7,694................. 0.................... 46.972
GDANSK.............................................. 4,636............... 4,636................. 0.................... 45.011
NEWQUAY......................................... 10,545............ 10,545................. 0.................... 44.769
BILBAO................................................ 7,288.............. 7,288.................. 0.................... 43,804
LISBON.............................................. 26,419............ 26,419................. 0..................... 43.621
GIBRALTAR........................................ 11,241............ 11,241................. 0..................... 43.435
BOA VISTA.......................................... 5,828............... 5,828................. 0..................... 41.732
PREVEZA............................................ 11,755.............. 8,335........... 3,420.................... 38.473
LAS VEGAS......................................... 17,061............. 17,061................ 0..................... 37.473

CAA statistics for August are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - August 2017 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_Pax 2016……..Total Pax 2017……% change
VIENNA…………………. 10,007……….…………… 10,891……………….. +8.8338
BRUSSELS……………… 15,807……………………. 16,729……………….. +5.8329
BEIJING…………………… 9,287………………….… 12,117.………………. +30.473
PRAGUE………………… 11,886……………………. 13,942…….…………. +17.298
COPENHAGEN………. 29,356……………………. 27,987……………….. -4.663
HELSINKI………………... 9,711…………….……... 10,356……………….. +6.642
PARIS (CDG)…………… 53,366……………………. 56,293…………….... +5.4848
DUSSELDORF…………. 19,761………..………….. 23,715……………….. +20.009
FRANKFURT MAIN…. 38,613……………………. 34,813….…………….. -9.841
MUNICH………………… 30,469..…………………. 33,324………………… +2.8061
HONG KONG………….. 10,543….………………… 11,112 ……….……… +5.3969
KEFLAVIK………………….. 7,839……………………… 9,823………………… +25.309
DUBLIN…………………… 90,135……………………. 86,998………….……. -3.48
MILAN (MALPENSA).. 14,017……………………. 17,239……………….. +22.986
ROME (FIUMICINO).. 12,348..………………….. 12,806……………….. +3.7091
AMSTERDAM…………. 91,456…………………….. 93,846.……………... +2.6133
ISLAMABAD……………. 25,268..…………………… 15,409………………. -39.02
LISBON …………………… 18,395…………………….. 26,419………..…….. +43.621
DOHA…………………….. 33,989…………………….. 32,728………………. -3.71
JEDDAH……………………. 8,074………………………. 9,101……………….. +12.72
SINGAPORE……………. 10,450………………………. 7,715……………….. -26.17
MADRID…………………. 14,963…………………….. 15,240………………. +1.8512
STOCKHOLM (ARN)… 13,254…………………….. 17,467………………. +31.787
GENEVA…………………. 19,286…………………….. 21,052….………..... +9.1569
ZURICH……………………. 9,548……………………… 10,929………………. +14.464
ABU DHABI…………….. 44,633……………….……. 42,573…..…………. -4.615
DUBAI…………………….. 81,321.……………………. 89,852………………. +10.491
ATLANTA……………….. 13,577…….……………….. 12,960………………. -4.544
CHICAGO…..…………… 10,127…………………….. 10,418………………. -2.793
HOUSTON……………..………… 0………………………. 4,981………………. +0.00
NEW YORK (JFK)……… 38,119…………………….. 43,441………..……. +13.962
NEW YORK (NEWARK). 9,152………………………. 9,180………………. +0.3059
PHILADELPHIA………… 11,758……………………… 11,796……..………. +0.3232
HEATHROW……………. 58,179……………………… 55,815……………… -4.063

CAA statistics for August are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - August 2017 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 25 destinations - July 2007 versus July 2017

Foreign airport...........................August-07...........August-17
PALMA.............................................. 118,879................. 134,269
DALAMAN.......................................... 83,056.................. 50,097
MALAGA............................................ 74,337.................. 85,602
ALICANTE........................................... 71,168.................. 110,724
HEATHROW....................................... 71,142.................. 55,815
FARO.................................................. 63,529.................. 75,785
DUBLIN............................................... 61,398.................. 86,998
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 56,374.................. 82,094
SANFORD.......................................... 50,775.................... 7,949
AMSTERDAM..................................... 50,751.................. 93,846
DUBAI................................................ 48,693.................. 89,852
IBIZA.................................................. 48,136.................. 61,575
LARNACA........................................... 46,059.................. 24,885
PAPHOS............................................. 44,084.................. 41,637
HERAKLION........................................ 42,332.................. 39,139
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 43,298.................. 56,293
RHODES............................................. 36,712.................. 32,045
MAHON............................................. 36,455.................. 36,439
ORLANDO.......................................... 30,016.................. 53,840
ARRECIFE........................................... 33,933.................. 50,165
CORFU............................................... 33,761.................. 35,419
ZAKINTHOS........................................ 32,897.................. 29,337
BODRUM........................................... 31,547.................. 12,217
GATWICK........................................... 30,800.................. 0
FRANKFURT....................................... 30,733.................. 34,813

CAA are statistics for August are provisional.
 
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For a slightly different exercise I thought I would compare percentage change on the routes from Liverpool, with the percentage change for the same routes from Manchester. All figures are taken from the CAA database for August 2017.

Obviously Manchester has a far higher passenger throughput on nearly all the routes, which is why I have looked at percentage changes. Both Belfast Airports and also Inverness have, as yet not published figures for August.

Foreign Airport...Liverpool Pax_2017.%_change...........Manchester Pax_2017..%_change
ALICANTE.........28999..............38.92402............110724..............12.341721
AMSTERDAM........19093..............-12.773539..........93846...............2.613279
ARRECIFE.........7582...............5.305556............50165...............3.897852
BACAU............2556...............4.840033
BARCELONA........24036..............-17.484294..........54532...............2.045323
BARI (PALESE)....3233...............0
BELFAST CITY.....0..................-100................0...................-100
BELFAST INTL.....0..................-100................0...................-100
BERGAMO..........3722...............0...................14494...............1.385003
BERGERAC.........6097...............29.420505...........1284................6.291391
BERLIN (S'FELD)..4971...............-0.460553...........28774...............161.915165
BIGGIN HILL......75.................0
BODRUM (MILAS)...1731...............-38.703966..........12217...............26.234759
BORDEAUX.........5533...............7.876779
BOURNEMOUTH......58.................0...................142.................-31.40097
BRISTOL..........2..................0
BUCHAREST........5360...............12.43969............0...................-100
BUDAPEST.........6030...............105.241661..........12776...............10.96057
CITY OF DERRY....3233...............-57.28066
CLUJ NAPOCA......2265...............-19.908062
CORK.............5947...............-17.87046...........10287...............20.938161
CRAIOVA..........4387...............0
DUBLIN...........36248..............-25.380324..........86998...............-3.480335
EDINBURGH........0..................-100
FARO.............24864..............6.579793............75785...............-3.866401
FRANKFURT MAIN...321................682.926829..........34813...............-9.841245
FUERTEVENTURA....4773...............3.580729............24045...............-3.258902
GDANSK...........5737...............-4.953612...........4636................45.010948
GENEVA...........7597...............-15.626388..........21052...............9.156901
GIRONA...........3169...............0...................16714...............32.28334
HAMBURG..........0..................0...................30146...............119.084302
IBIZA............5772...............22.782387...........61575...............1.731459
INVERNESS........2..................0
IRELAND WEST.....7361...............-0.928668...........3236................-19.05953
ISLE OF MAN......19842..............8.65185.............15523...............-0.85585
JERSEY...........11574..............-13.21236...........5993................0.13367
KATOWICE.........4712...............9.83683
KAVALA...........218................0...................2768................3.360717
KOS..............0..................-100................22624...............29.472359
KRAKOW...........8580...............-3.541315...........13802...............90.424945
LARNACA..........5538...............76.819923...........24885...............-9.850022
LAS PALMAS.......3303...............128.423237..........33757...............6.603297
LISBON...........5194...............-6.633112...........26419...............43.620549
LONDON CITY......0..................-100................484.................0
LUBLIN...........2961...............0
LUTON............0..................-100................0...................-100
MADRID...........7942...............-2.288386...........15240...............1.851233
MAHON............3498...............-19.733823..........36439...............-4.382167
MALAGA...........30061..............11.522909...........85602...............-2.4912
MALTA............4780...............-5.533597...........23036...............-9.045682
MARRAKESH........2865...............0...................6369................-14.510067
MUNICH...........56.................0...................31324...............2.806131
NANTES...........2611...............7.581376............3071................-21.175565
NAPLES...........4191...............2.56975.............20756...............33.564994
NEWQUAY..........518................7.69231.............10545...............44.76936
NICE.............11337..............11.081717...........8274................6.76129
NIMES............3112...............-1.643489
OPORTO...........2845...............-12.488465..........9221................115.3936
PALMA............32497..............12.781981...........134269..............-1.177605
PARIS (CDG)......5036...............-24.914269..........56293...............5.484766
PERPIGNAN........0..................0...................78..................0
PISA.............2904...............-9.476309...........12320...............19.379845
POZNAN...........3212...............-1.321045
PRAGUE...........6138...............158.987342..........13942...............17.297661
REUS.............3236...............0.278897............18956...............9.1118
RHODES...........5981...............-5.929538...........32045...............-4.426019
RIGA.............3056...............5.089409............5042................8.546825
ROME (FIUMICINO).6447...............0...................12806...............3.709103
SANDEFJORD(TORP).0..................-100................2780................0
SEVILLE..........58.................0...................18956...............9.11184
SKOPJE...........370................0...................511.................0
SOFIA............2823...............0...................6012................35.895118
SPLIT............339................0...................14384...............99.251974
SZCZECIN.........3253...............14.140351
TALLIN........... 0.................-100
TATRY-POPRAD..... 131...............0
TENERIFE (SOUTH). 4750..............-5.170693...........82094...............-8.478355 VENICE........... 196...............0...................19969...............-9.433534
VILNIUS.......... 0.................-100
WARSAW (CHOPIN).. 4569..............4.986213
WARSAW (MODLIN).. 6362..............35.824082...........4618................-7.621524
WROCLAW.......... 4940..............5.061676............4645................0
ZADAR............ 148...............0...................4153................27.627535
ZAKINTHOS........ 3081..............17.550553...........29337...............1.737412
 
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We'll probably find out the stats for
September at some point this week. Likely to remain in growth, but Monarchs demise might mean October falls to negative growth (it'll be interesting to see) before any new capacity kicks in from EasyJet, Jet2 or TUi.
 
I'm expecting October to be about -3% ish. Yes Monarch went under, but we have about 7% growth to buffer some loss, and a lot of Monarch passengers booked onto other carriers with it being relatively short notice and wanting to either keep their holiday or not loose a seperate hotel booking (don't forget only 5% of Monarch pax were on a package).

It will be a shame to enter the negative numbers after years of growth, but I suppose this time had to come eventually, can't grow forever, there has to be dips too.
 
Exactly - from recollection the early winter growth was larger than the summer? So we may get over the 0% mark, but now feels sa good a time as any for a negative month month.

With all the plans from EasyJet, TUi, and Jet2, it seems unlikely to last long. Add in announced and planned expansion from the likes of CX, Oman and I think the trajectory will slow slightly, but will continue to be on the right lines.
 
If it hadn't been for Monarch going into administration, we could well have hit 28m in the calendar year.
Seems highly unlikely now.
 
True, we would have only needed about 90k more pax per month to hit the magic number.

Such a shame to be so close but the industry doesn't care about sentiment.

Might still be achievable in 2018, bit probably not until about August time.
 
MAN's place in Europe... article is from Ireland:


"The capital's (Dublin) airport handled 3.07 million passengers in August, which was 6.6pc higher than in August 2016, according to new figures from Airports Council International (ACI). ACI said that the fastest-growing large European airport - which includes gateways that handle more than 25 million passengers a year - was Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport, which saw numbers in August soar 19.6pc to 4.1 million.

At Istanbul Ataturk, traffic was 10.6pc higher at 6.6 million. At Manchester, passenger traffic was 7.9pc higher in August at 3.1 million. At Oslo traffic rose 7.1pc to 2.5 million."

Alas we won't be featuring in this top 5 fastest growing major airport for a little while


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dublin-airport-racks-up-growth-36214744.html
 
Even worse, there is an interview with Ken O Toole which suggests STN will overtake MAN in the next financial year.
 
Capacity replaced by 2019?
"For Manchester Airport Group (MAG), Monarch accounted for around 1.4 million of its 55.9 million total passengers in the 12 months to end-March 2017. MAG anticipates that all of this will be backfilled in in 2019 as the Monarch slots and routes have excess demand and can be covered by other airlines"

"The failure of Monarch Airlines will dent revenue at such airports as Gatwick and Manchester in the short-term, but their credit profiles are unlikely to be weakened as other airlines should take up capacity quickly, according to Fitch Ratings....

These airports are primarily origination and destination (O&D) airports that rely on demand related to their catchment area, rather than hub airports. Higher O&D traffic usually results in significant services from multiple airlines, provides a strong indication of future demand and indicates a higher likelihood that replacement services will be introduced if an individual carrier fails.

"Experience from previous airline failures supports this view and shows that an O&D airport's landing slots can generally be quickly refilled after an airline bankruptcy."


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/monarch-airlines-collapse-should-only-hit-uk-airports-short-term-1642946
 

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For some weird reason, my days off work tend to involve being out of my flat by 5am and not getting back until 10pm. Back to work and the regular "fix" of 7.40am to 7.15pm hours
Heatwave Mk2 next week?
Some explosive weather build-ups currently in the North of England. What is it like where you are?
LBA: B737-300 G-GDFK empty down to Paris at 16:15 to operate the return LS268 back to Leeds 20:00 ETA where it will then operate the delayed LS265 to Malaga 20:40ETD
LBA: Albastar B737-800 EC-MUB positioning in tommorow afternoon from Gatwick 15:45 to operate a charter to Lourdes/Tarbes on Friday afternoon 14:00 AP7721 STC
I don't believe I am quite covering enough roles at work. Its now 4 on a bad day, 5 on a good day and there is scope for a 6th and 7th role. Still on minimum pay but had the biggest payrise in the company,

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