CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Coathanger16]

Even worse, there is an interview with Ken O Toole which suggests STN will overtake MAN in the next financial year.

I guess with the loss of Monarch at Manchester and the huge amount of expansion that Jet2 is putting in at Stansted, it makes it a possibility.

 

[Comet]

The sad demise of MON made that almost inevitable.

I strongly suspect that KOT's move to STN was MAGs way to ensure that happened and the demise of MON makes that so much easier. STN will probably gain from the MON collapse where MAN is a loser.

I have felt for a long time that MAG view STN as their premier airport and the one most likely to swell the coffers rather than MAN. STN has big expansion plans and aims to become No2 ahead of LGW. MAN has the TP which many people view as too little too late and as the airport admits does not constitute expansion in the way many on here including me would like. I therefore fear MAN will before too long become No4 again and MAG will put more effort into STN over MAN

 

[Aviador]

Influx of foreign students sees Manchester Airport's passenger numbers rise
• September sees 2.8m passenger use the UK’s global gateway in the North

• Growth attributed to thousands of students jetting into the Northern hub to start university

• Foreign students arrived from across the globe including Far East, Middle East and USA

• Rolling annual passenger numbers now at more than 27.6m

An influx of students arrived into Manchester Airport during September ahead of the start of the new term at universities across the North of England.

Thousands of international students arrived from around the globe, boosting passenger numbers at the UK’s third largest airport.

Students arrived from the Far East, Middle East, USA and all over Europe to some of the 25 universities inside the airport’s catchment area. Representatives from 18 different institutions were on hand to welcome students to the UK, including the universities of Leeds, Sheffield, Huddersfield, York, Liverpool, UCLAN, Bolton, Manchester and Bangor.

Following the summer peak period, lots of passengers also took advantage of cheaper prices to make the most of the last of the Mediterranean sun.

More than 2.8m people travelled through the airport’s three terminals in September. It sees the airport’s annual rolling total reach 27.6m people, a year-on-year increase of 11%.

Andrew Cowan, CEO of Manchester Airport, said: “One of the key selling points of the Northern Powerhouse is the fact there are so many universities providing world class education and research.

"Giving international students quick and easy access to the towns and cities they have chosen for their studies is an example of Manchester Airport playing its role as the UK's global gateway in the North.

"It was great to play host to so many different universities from across the patch during the past month and to welcome thousands of international students to the North for the first time."

September saw an increase in aircraft movements by 6%, with more than 19,800 take offs and landings. Cargo also increased last month with 10,688 tonnes carried, an increase of 9%, which sees the annual tonnage rise to 123,600.

MAG’s other airports also performed well last month, especially London Stansted which had its busiest ever summer season.

 

[User001]

Manchester was Faro's 2nd busiest route in 2Q2017 with over 116,000 seats. Gatwick was first with 176,000 seats.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Not really certain where this sits, so I'll start here and leave Aviador to move it if he so decides?

The old Monarch slots at Manchester have not, as yet, been re-allocated and so the following reduction in movements/passengers can be expected:

Peak Week

154 movements or 30,956 passengers

Full Winter Season

2,928 movements
588,722 passengers

 

[Scottie Dog]

Is this the longest gap that there has been in the CAA updating the monthly stats? Supposedly the last scheduled update for August should have been on 13th October, having previously been done on 22nd September.

Can you tell I'm suffering from statistical withdrawal symptoms - any remedies,apart from trying to work out Summer 2018 movements for easyJet, Jet2 and various others!!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Is this the longest gap that there has been in the CAA updating the monthly stats? Supposedly the last scheduled update for August should have been on 13th October, having previously been done on 22nd September.

Can you tell I'm suffering from statistical withdrawal symptoms - any remedies,apart from trying to work out Summer 2018 movements for easyJet, Jet2 and various others!!

In recent months the CAA seemed to be getting better, or at least less worse, at providing stats quicker, or perhaps less slowly. After they adopted their new website early last year they were all over the place with their publication of stats with some airports not shown for 2-3 months after the month in question.

This summer they've improved with August's 'league table' published on 22 September (as you point out) which is almost back to the 'old days' when the first batch of airports would be published around the 15th of the following month. But in the old days the missing airports from the first batch were usually included in an updated league table within a week or two (as I know that you are aware of course, but other readers might not be). The fact that no further update has occurred in the next month suggests the CAA is slipping back into its slothful ways of last year and early 2017.

 

[User001]

It's also worth pointing out that AMS has now reached above 1 million passengers carried per year. Dublin and Dubai not far behind...

 

[Dobbo]

It'll be interesting to see the stats (individual and collective) when available.

In the mid term, there is reason to believe MAN's passenger numbers may be able to tread water following Monarch's collapse until some lost capacity can be replaced. Depends on airline pricing and the strength of demand, but it is possible. Let's see.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The CAA have finally updated the August stats. I'll just post figures for the missing domestic airports:

Aberdeen - 18,546 +1.6832%
Belfast City - 26,945 +16.984%
Belfast International - 20,393 -1.024%
Inverness - 7,181 +14.274%

According to my spreadsheet that gives a moving total of 27,398,080 compared with the published CAA figure of 27,493,488. Obviously there must be a monthly variance and I will try reviewing my monthly figures over the next few weeks.

 

[Land23R]

Just a heads up that the September CAA stats are finally out. Haven't time to digest them just now but will look later.
Did notice that EK were up 8%, CX 6% I think, and HU also up.

 

[Dobbo]

Can anyone add a link? Looks like the website has received an overhaul, keeps telling me the webpage cannot be found!

 

[Scottie Dog]

Firstly thanks for the heads up. Secondly I'm away until next weekend so I will have to twiddle my thumbs in anticipation until next Sunday!

 

[Dobbo]

Found them.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles..._12_1_Intl_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

SQ on MAN-SIN looks to be extraordinarily high. 189 passengers per sector, 75% load factor excluding SIN-IAH traffic.

The flip side is that MAN-IAH is about 112 passengers per sector, about a 44% load factor.

Assuming SIN-MAN has 100% load factor including SIN-IAH traffic (unlikely, but probably not too far off the mark) you are looking at an additional 63 passengers per sector, roughly a 70% load factor.

MAN - IAH remains a challenge, but I hope they can agree a codeshare with someone at IAH - that would make connecting to other points in the US ex MAN much easier. However, much of the Houston are has been devastated by hurricanes so in the circumstances not too bad.

 

[Dobbo]

The numbers on SFO and LAX look strong, no indication on load factors, as does BOS.

Toronto and Vancouver are up again.

Looking east, Beijing up 22% against 2016 (remember we now know 2016 performed roughly 15% ahead of projections).

Oman is slightly disappointing with roughly 70% load factor. Let's see how they do over the winter, which should be a better time for them.

 

[Land23R]

Re IAH, which month was it when some flights were cancelled due the hurricane?

 

[Dobbo]

Not September - I'm pretty sure it was the final week of August where rotations were cancelled.

 

[Land23R]

Just to add a few average loads and where easily determined the LF

CX: A/L = £240 (based on 44 sectors) LF = 85.9%

HU: A/L = 176 (based on 60 sectors) LF = 82.8% if all flights B788 which I suspect they weren't.

WY: A/L = 149 (60 sectors) LF = 69.1%

SV: A/L = 195 (42 sectors Jeddah)

EK: A/L = 470

EY: A/L = 305

QR: A/L = 204 (based on 140 sectors - we seemed to get 3 flights on one Friday as well as the usual Sat/Mon.

ATL: A/L = 211 (58 sectors) LF = 80%

ORD: A/L = 149 (58 sectors) Not sure of a/c types - B757/B767.

EWR: A/L = 142 (60 sectors) LF = 83.9%

PHL: A/L = 172 (60 sectors) LF = 66.7%

Of the US routes, JFK, LAS, LAX,and BOS were up. ATL, ORD, MIA, EWR, PHL and MCO were down on Sep. 2016.

Apologies for any errors due to wrong number of sectors.

 

[Dobbo]

MAN continues to grow in October. Obviously the full impact of Monarch's demise has not yet been felt, but it gives cause to believe the trajectory can remain an upward one.

• Rolling 12 month total: 27,732,67
• October 2017 total: 2,404,521
• Year on year growth: +3.1%

Still larger than STN, so reason to believe that position can be comfortably maintained while the Monarch capacity is back filled.

http://mediacentre.magairports.com/mag-growth-continues-into-the-autumn/

 

[Land23R]

This is an interesting paragraph:

"Passenger growth at Manchester in October was affected by Monarch ceasing trading, with year-on-year growth down from 7.4% in September. Monarch had accounted for 5.4% of flights from Manchester in September, averaging 250 flights per week. MAG has seen strong interest from airlines to take over the slots operated previously by Monarch so they can operate new services at Manchester next year".

Given Monarch's demise, 3.1% in October was very satisfactory in my view.