CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[IanFarquharson]

Very good MAN October figure at just 7.25% lower than Oct 2019 which was 2,499,153
Oct 2018 was 2,547,034
But yes great to see airports getting back to pre covid levels.

 

[IanFarquharson]

October 2022

HEATHROW	5,893,221​		up		93.6​	%
GATWICK	3,357,779​		up		196.8​	%
STANSTED	2,338,638​		up		74.5​	%
MANCHESTER	2,316,232​		up		92.5​	%
LUTON	1,328,090​		up		73.3​	%
EDINBURGH	1,172,305​		up		99.6​	%
BIRMINGHAM	967,609​		up		92.7​	%
GLASGOW	684,379​		up		77.1​	%
NEWCASTLE	439,216​		up		95.8​	%
BELFAST INT	438,274​		up		18.0​	%
LIVERPOOL	360,621​		up		66.3​	%
EAST MIDLANDS	353,217​		up		65.9​	%
LEEDS BRADFORD	336,376​		up		89.9​	%
LONDON CITY	301,737​		up		102.7​	%
ABERDEEN	194,594​		up		39.5​	%
BELFAST CITY	175,105​		up		56.5​	%
JERSEY	122,062​		up		9.5​	%
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD	89,824​		up		46.8​	%
BOURNEMOUTH	75,960​		up		60.6​	%
INVERNESS	74,522​		up		24.4​	%
CARDIFF WALES	73,572​		up		199.4​	%
SOUTHAMPTON	61,929​		up		40.1​	%
GUERNSEY	61,596​		up		32.9​	%
PRESTWICK	52,275​		up		177.8​	%
ISLE OF MAN	50,288​		up		51.8​	%
EXETER	36,117​		up		42.7​	%
NORWICH	34,559​		up		117.9​	%
SUMBURGH	23,387​		up		18.4​	%
TEESSIDE	16,662​		up		41.1​	%
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON)	14,677​		up		89.3​	%
SOUTHEND	13,124​		down		-46.6​	%
KIRKWALL	12,006​		up		14.7​	%
STORNOWAY	9,751​		up		20.6​	%
HUMBERSIDE	8,941​		up		169.7​	%
ISLES OF SCILLY (ST.MARYS)	7,305​		down		-15.9​	%
LANDS END (ST JUST)	5,525​		down		-15.9​	%
ALDERNEY	4,305​		down		-7.7​	%
DUNDEE	4,075​		up		30.9​	%
BENBECULA	3,060​		up		24.4​	%
ISLAY	2,654​		up		30.7​	%

Post automatically merged: Dec 16, 2022

October 2022 v October 2019 (PRE Covid)



STN – down 5.9%

MAN – down 7.3%

LBA – down 10.1%

EDI – down 10.4%

GLA – down 11.1%

BHX – down 12.3%

LGW – down 15.2%

BFS – down 15.4%

LHR – down 15.7%

EMA – down 16.4%

LTN – down 20.1%

LPL – down 21.7%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Here is my first of many versions of the CAA data for October:

Load Factors based on data from FR24 and Planspotters.net

View attachment 27301


View attachment 27302
View attachment 27303

 

[Scottie Dog]

The next set of data for October is given below. For a comparison I have included the airport's official data for that month, together with my take which is based upon the CAA files:

View attachment 27331


View attachment 27333

View attachment 27334

View attachment 27335

 

[IanFarquharson]

MAG November

STN - 1,834,490 down 2.9% on November 2019
MAN - 1,629,848 down 10.7% on November 2019
EMA - 145,832 down 30.0% on November 2019

Rolling 12m

MAN - 22,549,936
STN - 22,369,425
EMA - 3,110,931

 

[mullion]

This Christmas should bring traffic very close to pre pandemic loads as I believe loads
ex MAN are very good

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've finally been able to get hold of a copy December's airport stats!

View attachment 27476

Finally, for now, here is my take on December 2019 versus December 2022:

View attachment 27478

 

[IanFarquharson]

Nov 22 v Nov 19

STN – down 2.8%

LHR – down 10.7%

MAN – down 10.8%

BRS – down – 14.1%

LBA – down 14.7%

EDI – down 15.0%

BHX – down 19.6%

LTN – down 20.0%

GLA – down 23.1%

BFS – down 23.9%

LGW – down 26.5%

EMA – down 29.9%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Based on the CAA data and the available seats (using FR24) I have calculated the following load factors. Note that Houston and Addis Ababa appear low as the flights are split between an additional airport (Singapore & Geneva respectively)

View attachment 27496

View attachment 27497
View attachment 27498

 

[IanFarquharson]

MAN market shares of Total UK Pax

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

January

8.80%​

8.51%​

8.46%​

8.31%​

7.59%​

7.74%​

8.09%​

8.41%​

8.33%​

8.41%​

February

8.89%​

8.61%​

8.52%​

8.35%​

7.46%​

7.77%​

8.36%​

8.53%​

8.41%​

8.66%​

March

8.76%​

8.53%​

8.60%​

8.20%​

7.74%​

7.57%​

8.28%​

8.53%​

8.43%​

8.49%​

April

8.82%​

8.60%​

8.23%​

8.18%​

7.80%​

7.91%​

8.18%​

8.45%​

8.67%​

8.56%​

May

9.75%​

9.36%​

9.40%​

9.03%​

8.73%​

8.94%​

8.87%​

9.21%​

9.50%​

9.31%​

June

10.11%​

9.70%​

9.50%​

9.03%​

9.05%​

9.16%​

9.61%​

9.63%​

9.82%​

9.67%​

July

10.06%​

9.60%​

9.29%​

8.86%​

8.80%​

9.19%​

9.58%​

9.54%​

9.78%​

9.78%​

August

10.52%​

9.94%​

9.58%​

9.25%​

9.06%​

9.35%​

9.60%​

9.73%​

10.06%​

10.08%​

September

10.39%​

9.94%​

9.67%​

9.34%​

9.06%​

9.45%​

9.69%​

9.81%​

9.93%​

9.94%​

October

9.75%​

9.32%​

8.93%​

8.33%​

8.28%​

8.57%​

8.98%​

9.16%​

9.39%​

9.19%​

November

8.46%​

8.28%​

8.34%​

7.58%​

7.78%​

8.11%​

8.49%​

8.38%​

8.39%​

8.46%​

December

8.45%​

8.27%​

8.07%​

7.31%​

8.32%​

8.04%​

8.29%​

8.38%​

8.46%​

8.53%​

Total

9.50%​

9.15%​

8.97%​

8.56%​

8.41%​

8.60%​

8.93%​

9.08%​

9.22%​

9.20%​

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

January

8.53%​

9.16%​

9.00%​

9.27%​

9.21%​

8.98%​

10.35%​

February

8.74%​

9.18%​

9.16%​

9.41%​

9.48%​

8.80%​

11.27%​

March

8.75%​

9.14%​

9.26%​

9.28%​

9.38%​

8.90%​

10.62%​

April

9.14%​

9.43%​

9.24%​

9.67%​

7.09%​

6.75%​

10.25%​

May

9.53%​

9.92%​

9.57%​

9.86%​

4.87%​

6.19%​

10.52%​

June

9.97%​

10.21%​

10.14%​

10.37%​

5.72%​

6.42%​

10.58%​

July

10.08%​

10.31%​

10.11%​

10.50%​

9.43%​

8.03%​

10.66%​

August

10.33%​

10.57%​

10.29%​

10.80%​

9.94%​

9.50%​

10.98%​

September

10.29%​

10.48%​

10.21%​

10.62%​

11.11%​

10.08%​

11.49%​

October

9.70%​

9.62%​

9.74%​

9.64%​

10.24%​

10.52%​

10.48%​

November

9.14%​

8.99%​

9.16%​

9.15%​

9.54%​

10.03%​

9.82%​

December

9.16%​

9.16%​

9.36%​

9.21%​

9.49%​

9.91%​

Total

9.55%​

9.77%​

9.68%​

9.90%​

9.53%​

9.45%​

 

[Scottie Dog]

A very interesting review Ian. Thank you.

 

[IanFarquharson]

A very interesting review Ian. Thank you.

Market share wise 2022 was MAN best year ever.

 

[Scottie Dog]

January 2023 statistics as per the MAN website

View attachment 27750

My comparison with 2019 will follow tomorrow - even Scottie Dogs need to rest.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Comparison as promised:

View attachment 27752

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I'm starting to fear that S23 will be 'just OK' versus S22 rather than stellar. The programmes of the four main short-haul based carriers will be crucial. We need healthy growth from Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 and TUI. On long-haul, we already know that Virgin is a huge disappointment. Aer Lingus UK will upgauge one of the two based aircraft giving a respectable capacity increase. There is only one new name expected for S23 - a modest programme to Turkey by Southwind Airlines (if it goes ahead). And set against that, we've already lost one carrier in the form of FlyBe 2.0.

EasyJet has confirmed an extra based aircraft, taking their total to 21. And I believe that they will all be A320/A20N - no smaller A319's - so they're doing their bit. Jet2 and TUI are both mature operations focusing on leisure routes. I expect them to offer broadly similar programmes to S22. That's good, because they're both big players at MAN, but I don't anticipate substantial growth from them - especially if we're in a recessionary environment. What Ryanair do will be crucial. The most recent ACL report suggested a sixteenth based aircraft (+1) and a substantial increase in programmed flights. But the concern is that the programme on sale so far doesn't tally with that scale of growth, and whilst several other airports (including near neighbours) have seen press releases announcing additional based aircraft, MAN has not. One of my analyst friends [credit: MANFOD] even suggests that the MAN programme currently on sale looks like a reduction from S22. Hope not - but we need a positive announcement from Ryanair VERY SOON. If Ryanair don't grow their Summer programme from MAN, we must expect overall growth to flatline - at a level way below 2019 figures.

Post-covid air travel resumed in earnest in March 2022. Once the February stats are in (should be massively up) we start to see year-on-year comparisons where the difference will be much more marginal. S22 saw a huge wave of travel voucher redemptions as customers finally made long-postponed trips. That has largely worked through the market now. The success of S23 relies on totally new bookings coming in during a period of elevated economic stress.

Taking a broad overview, Southwind Airlines is (potentially) a new but low frequency addition. But more than offsetting that, it looks like Corendon Airlines will operate a smaller programme than last year. There are NO other new names expected at this stage. MAN's scheduled programme to the US is in the pits - covid aside, bumping along at a level not seen here in 20 years. Every Virgin announcement seems to be another cutback, US carriers are focusing on cities favoured by US-domiciled tourists (ie. not MAN). The only modest increase is the Aer Lingus UK upgauge of one based aircraft. SIA frequency to Houston is reduced. TUI serves Florida as before. Capacity to the Caribbean has not been backfilled from the Thomas Cook days, and US-instigated restrictions hitting travel to Cuba have hurt MAN as well. We do have operations to the Caribbean and Mexico, but not on the scale of S19. There is still nothing to Western Canada; Eastern Canada has crept back thanks to Air Transat. Air Canada has once again opted for a minimalist peak-Summer operation only - very underwhelming commitment as usual from them.

Traffic through the Gulf region has been a highlight. The third daily Emirates A380 will boost the stats as it works through the calendar; Qatar Airways looks back to full strength too. Etihad remains once daily; no sign of the second daily being restored. Welcome contributions from Saudia, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air too. Add to these increased capacity through the twin Istanbul hubs of THY and Pegasus. BUT, BUT ... we mustn't overlook the elephant in the room here. All those passengers who used to board around ten high-density B777's per week to Pakistan have had to be absorbed onto those aforementioned carriers. So whilst the capacity on those Gulf routes is back, the composition of seat sales has changed. There is less capacity available for destinations in Asia and Australasia. And don't forget we also had Oman Air pre-covid. No sign of them resuming. Jet Airways was never backfilled; traffic to India must use one-stop options over the UAE or Istanbul as well. Thank goodness for Bangladesh Biman!

Direct services to the Far East are weak. Singapore Airlines is the bright-spot, hopefully thriving and increasing capacity to Singapore (but reducing frequency to Houston). Cathay has been throttled by covid rules only very recently lifted. Hopefully bookings can now come back in volume for them. Hainan - whilst welcome - is a token low-frequency operation, a shadow of its heyday. Rumoured new names such as Thai International and Juneyao won't be seen at MAN in S23.

Ethiopian to Addis via Geneva is a rare gem in MAN's African network. Carriers formerly seen on MAN schedules including EgyptAir, RAM, Air Arabia Maroc and Nouvelair Tunisie should be wooed again by MAG. Likewise El Al to Tel Aviv. EasyJet is doing fantastic business on that route ... just what do El Al need to see before they resume?

Meanwhile, the Baltics and Eastern Europe are overshadowed by the proximity of total war. The tragedy playing out there pushes all aviation concerns discussed here into complete insignificance, but this is the airport thread and we must stick to topic. There is no prospect of services to Moscow or Minsk in the foreseeable, and a resumption of Kyiv (and formerly announced Odesa) services is not feasible.

So I am cautious re S23. Strong points are UAE / Arabian Gulf, Türkiye, Spain. Weak points are USA, Caribbean, Western Canada, Baltics / Ukraine, SE Asia (except Singapore), non-stop Pakistan and India. Also domestic UK, though this is a multi-layered story. Northern Ireland, IOM, Channel Islands, Newquay all look strong. Services to London and Southampton are capacity-starved. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Exeter, Norwich and Southend are amongst recent destinations no longer served from MAN. EasyJet has dropped their two Scottish routes to Aberdeen and Inverness, Loganair continues on these. Scottie Dog's stats above show domestic pax down 43.3% year-on-year ... the loss of FlyBe and the reallocation of BA's LHR slots to other routes ex-London account for most of that pain. Though MAN's terrible on the ground offer for domestic - international interline doesn't help one bit. Getting domestic carriers transferred into T2 with state-of-the-art supporting transfer facilities should be an absolute top priority in my view. We need to scrape afew more fossils off Mr Cornish's wallet before its too late to recover.

The next ACL update for S23 is expected soon. The first thing I'll be looking at is the Ryanair programme. If it shows a reduction (catastrophe), watch out below. If it's a modest increase, pax totals for MAN as a whole should see cautious progress. Substantial Ryanair increase ... we can dream! But if you're holding out for a boom year, your expectations may need to be scaled back.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I would say MAN is doing well at down just 8% for January 2023 v 2019, BHX was down 18%

 

[IanFarquharson]

December 2022

HEATHROW	5,950,200​		up		90.6​	%
GATWICK	2,593,235​		up		150.1​	%
STANSTED	1,852,146​		up		105.3​	%
MANCHESTER	1,728,481​		up		90.5​	%
LUTON	1,086,141​		up		82.4​	%
EDINBURGH	895,789​		up		104.9​	%
BIRMINGHAM	698,784​		up		105.1​	%
BRISTOL	513,877​		up		89.1​	%
GLASGOW	427,858​		up		53.7​	%
BELFAST INT	312,912​		up		9.2​	%
LIVERPOOL	252,884​		up		75.7​	%
NEWCASTLE	252,620​		up		88.0​	%
LONDON CITY	251,458​		up		186.8​	%
LEEDS BRADFORD	188,706​		up		152.6​	%
BELFAST CITY	165,298​		up		75.5​	%
ABERDEEN	158,127​		up		41.3​	%
EAST MIDLANDS	153,922​		up		101.6​	%
JERSEY	92,342​		up		23.5​	%
SOUTHAMPTON	54,120​		up		74.9​	%
GUERNSEY	50,251​		up		47.0​	%
INVERNESS	49,826​		up		27.2​	%
ISLE OF MAN	49,492​		up		40.3​	%
CARDIFF WALES	38,402​		up		148.0​	%
BOURNEMOUTH	37,013​		up		90.6​	%
EXETER	23,442​		up		55.3​	%
NORWICH	20,950​		up		71.3​	%
SUMBURGH	16,671​		down	-6.2​	%
PRESTWICK	16,446​		up		138.4​	%
NEWQUAY	16,405​		up		240.0​	%
CITY OF DERRY	12,896​		up		13.7​	%
TEESSIDE	10,992​		up		89.6​	%
KIRKWALL	9,137​		up		8.6​	%
HUMBERSIDE	8,960​		up		98.6​	%
STORNOWAY	7,739​		up		12.3​	%
ALDERNEY	3,412​		up		19.1​	%
DUNDEE	2,961​		up		30.7​	%

2022 Totals

% is compared to 2019 annual totals i.e. pre-pandemic

Heathrow – 61,611,838 down 23.8%

Gatwick – 32,835,381 down 23.0%

Manchester – 23,364,471 down 12.2%

Stansted – 23,290,097 down 17.2%

Luton – 13,325,052 down 26.9%

Edinburgh – 11,250,211 down 23.7%

Birmingham – 9,597,462 down 24.1%

Bristol – 7,948,941 down 11.3%

Glasgow – 6,517,585 down 26.3%

Belfast Int – 4,818,214 down 23.3%

Liverpool – 3,490,844 down 30.2%

Leeds – 3,288,635 down 17.6%

East Midlands – 3,186,367 down 31.8%

 

[David_itl]

Just had a quick peek at the December 2022 breakdown and my head hurts looking at Ethiopian's stats! 7371 passengers and based off what the schedule was meant to be, 11618 available seats which means 63% loads.

It really would be good to know how many passengers routed MAN-GVA so we could see what kind of business they are doing on that bit as if we go off what they tended to prior to the change to GVA with 5th freedom rights, they were carrying around 4000 passengers to ADD.
I would be astonished if the 3000 passenger increase could be attributed to just the 5th
freedom sector as it would mean they are picking up around 88 passengers per flight on that alone.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Old age has obviously started to catch up with me as David's post has reminded me that I have not posted by usual "load-factor" sheets for December 2022.

Better late than never - or so they say!!

View attachment 27846


View attachment 27847
View attachment 27848

View attachment 27849

 

[David_itl]

The MAD loads ;looks like they've been strapping passengers to the wings! The one thing we can confidently state is that Aer Lingus must be doing a lot better on their Barbados roure than last winter