Virgin Atlantic

[Dobbo]

Just a quick note of all the PR for the new MAN-SFO route which starts later this month.

Publicity under the hashtag #MANFRAN

Lets hope the route (and also TCX's route starting in May - I think) is a success.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Strange choice. When I saw that hashtag I immediately thought of Ryanair's newly-announced Manchester to Frankfurt schedule!

 

[Dobbo]

It does set up Ryanair for some ambush marketing... #MANFRA

Perhaps it doesn't quite have the same ring to it...

 

[Dobbo]

It sounds like DL are preparing the ground for a full transfer of MAN operations to VS. The story/rumour is that DL emoted ground staff are in a redundancy process.

Obviously, we hope the DL staff are towards the front of the Queue for the equivalent positions at VS.

If true, this seems to indicate JFK being taken over year round by VS, as per ATL. I gather there is a chance SFO will be year round as it has sold well, but BOS I gather has not sold as well as expected.

 

[ethanegcc]

One thing that annoys me about the pprune forum, is the constant 'DL are ceasing ops'. They are not ceasing operations. It is a metal neutral codeshare agreement which currently means that JFK will be taken over by Virgin Atlantic from Manchester and then handed back to DL for the winter season.

If SFO goes year round, I'd be very pleased but amazed. Given many airlines cautious attitudes towards MAN lately, I can't see it but if it does, great.

 

[Land23R]

When staff are made redundant, it's hard to argue it's business as normal, despite the partner/codeshare agreement. Like Dobbo, I hope some of the staff find positions at Virgin if they are recruiting to meet the extra flight operations.

I think TCX's experience with Boston suggests demand is there for a short summer season. VS starting so early surprises me and even in peak season using a/c with 266 and 322 seats to fill, a total of 4 weekly flights may be too much capacity. Hope I'm wrong but it does sound as if the VS flights to BOS are not selling well.

On SFO, I was a bit concerned at the lack of comment on advance bookings so it's more reassuring if the flights are selling ok.

 

[Jerry]

It makes sense for Delta to have the Manchester US routes flown by Virgin especially during the summer as it helps release aircraft for other seasonal routes or to increase frequencies or capacity for routes out of JFK or ATL. It also helps to expand Virgins operations at MAN.

 

[Dobbo]

When staff are made redundant, it's hard to argue it's business as normal, despite the partner/codeshare agreement. Like Dobbo, I hope some of the staff find positions at Virgin if they are recruiting to meet the extra flight operations.

I'm slightly surprised that it is a redundancy situation given that the overall level of business under the JV is increasing. I suspect part of the consultation will involve new roles created at VS, but who knows.

 

[Land23R]

Our friend User's latest post on pprune does not make good reading. SFO and BOS now ending 30 Sep. apparently. He even expresses concern whether they will return next year.

I said BOS might be a short summer seasonal route but I did think it might go into the first 2 weeks of October because of the Fall colours to be seen in New England.
Whether any escorted tour companies had booked seats on the flights I'm not sure.

 

[ethanegcc]

I noticed that when attempting to book. This is very bad news as I thought SFO was doing well? BOS hasn't been too encouraging from the start but I thought San Francisco was doing greatly - rumours of year-round? Very disappointed.

 

[ethanegcc]

Wrong year for US expansion?

 

[Dobbo]

That would be disappointing, and a very different story to what has been out there previously.

I'd thought SFO was underpinned by corporate contracts, but maybe that's not the complete picture.

 

[ethanegcc]

We are hearing a lot of conflicting rumours from PPRuNe from our friend though such as the first post talking about the possibility of going year-round and one further down the page suggesting it might not return. I have no doubt that his information is very well sourced and always reliable but I suppose we will just have to wait and see. Things can and possibly have clearly changed and that is understandable but hopefully the SFO service is still selling well.

 

[thunderchild]

Our friend User's latest post on pprune does not make good reading. SFO and BOS now ending 30 Sep. apparently. He even expresses concern whether they will return next year.

I‘m really not sure how you can go from a route selling well with the hope of going year round to suddenly ending earlier than planned and not expecting to come back next year all in the space of a few hours. Something doesn't add up there and I can’t help but feel that sometimes hopes and expectations are unfairly raised a little too high. This year was always going to be tough for the US market so it was inevitable MAN would face a few bumps in the road and to be honest I think it was irrational to think otherwise - the Trump/Brexit effect is starting to take hold.

Having said that if a route is being seasonally trimmed to meet demand (which in the case of SFO isn’t really surprising given two carriers are going head to head on a previously un-served route) then I don’t necessarily see it as a bad thing. It’s certainly better than both VS and TCX fighting it out all season and both losing out and/or pulling the route leaving SFO un-served again.

 

[Dobbo]

Thunderchild makes some valid points.

Another issue is the overall utilisation of the aircraft. We knew SFO was doing well but BOS was not where VS wanted it to be. Remember the A330 running these routes did 3 rotations to each of BOS and SFO. If BOS struggles, there is an issue with making SFO work because the overall utilisation of the aircraft means it would be better used elsewhere.

Hopefully VS can find a way to make SFO work next year, but the information is that it wont be with BOS...

 

[Land23R]

Thunderchild said:
"Something doesn't add up there and I can’t help but feel that sometimes hopes and expectations are unfairly raised a little too high. This year was always going to be tough for the US market so it was inevitable MAN would face a few bumps in the road and to be honest I think it was irrational to think otherwise"

Wise words in my opinion. It's now reported on pprune that MAN-JFK on VS only goes daily mid July until September (not sure what date) and initially 6 x weekly. And there is no confirmation yet of what is happening in winter. It seems odd if DL are laying off staff in May only to require them again for a B757 ops. in winter. I'm beginning to wonder whether even the 5 based VS a/c will be required this summer and be fully utilised or whether schedules will be juggled to manage with just 4 at times. And how winter will finish up on US schedules generally is anybody's guess.

Fortunately, long haul going east still looks brighter but MAN's hopes of decent growth in 2017 still depend mainly on the likes of Ryanair, Easyjet, Jet2, TCX etc. performing well and the picture there is still hopeful provided LFs are maintained.

 

[thunderchild]

Has the VS take over for JFK in the winter been confirmed?

Given DL have historically operated MAN-JFK over the winter with a mix of 757/767 the sudden jump to a VS A330 is perhaps too much in the current climate - especially if a full daily operation can only be maintained in peak summer.

If DL staff are being laid off I'm wondering if JFK is actually going to be seasonal for VS/DL for the time being?

 

[ethanegcc]

JFK can't go seasonal with VS/DL. In my opinion, Delta should just offer a daily 767 service all year (perhaps with a couple of drops in winter). This is ridiculous and it seems the logic is falling apart. The Delta aircraft structure is better for the New York routes and I have always thought this. They should be operating the 767 on a daily basis, rather than attempting a larger aircraft with odd frequencies. Virgin are doing ad-hoc frequency changes all over the network and it doesn't help.

Another point raised is that BOS is the issue, but SFO doing well. I think they should make a solid business orientated SFO route at 4x weekly year-round. I have always thought they went too far with changing the DL service to VS on the JFK route.

 

[ethanegcc]

DL is still showing daily 757-200 for the MAN-JFK route in winter. Delta are offering a daily 767-300 from March 26th to May 25th (when they end). In my opinion, this was working well and should have just been continued. Another possible option is that in Summer 2018, VS operates two JFK services and DL operates the other five, thus allowing an A330 to still be utilised with 4x weekly SFO?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Reading between the lines it looks like Delta just want to pull out of Manchester and are happy for Virgin too take over, I dont see a problem here as long as someone (Virgin) picks up the route(s).
BHX would love Virgin or Delta !