Virgin Atlantic

[Aceshigh]

These figures are nothing short of transformational BUT are they all jumping on 1 2 specific flights OR all the Virgin routes?

I only ask as those Winter cutbacks become even more absurd?

 

[ethanegcc]

Well, from reading on PPRUNE, 57 passengers joined the SFO outbound and MCO/LAS are the big transfer destinations.

 

[Dobbo]

Well if MAN can position itself as the hub for UK transfers it'll do okay. The SE runway debate looks like being kicked further down the road so MAN has more time to put its plans in action.

 

[groobs]

From experience having been on plenty of early morning DUB-MAN flights with EI I'd say there are plenty connecting onto the MCO and LAS Virgin flights out of Manchester.

 

[ethanegcc]

Following on from this, I thought I'd take a look at what connections were available through Manchester (bear in mind this is on google flights when there are many other options available):
On DUB-LAS/MCO/ATL/BOS/SFO, a Manchester connection with Virgin Atlantic was the cheapest option, with decent connection times (2hr30mins)

DUB-JFK could also be done with a Virgin connection.

Via Manchester is clearly the best option for Scotland with consistently the lowest prices and low transfer times. ABZ/EDI-BOS/ATL/JFK/SFO/MCO/LAS all came out as the cheapest and most convenient option.

In addition to this, if people in the south could be encouraged to travel from their local airport e.g. SOU and connect, MAN is a great proposition to those people to. SOU to all the Virgin Manchester destinations was doable and a low price, beating all of the other (but somewhat limited options) to Southampton.

I also checked Dusseldorf (as a European comparative) and, even then, with many more convenient connection opportunities, Virgin Atlantic via MAN appeared on the list for the likes of ATL, SFO and BOS

This is exactly the kind of traffic we need to make these routes work through stormy waters and, if this programme can be expanded, the routes will do well. With the TP, hopefully connections through Manchester will become an even more attractive prospect.

 

[Land23R]

Ethan, did you happen to check how those prices from DUB/GLA/EDI etc. via MAN compared to prices from MAN itself?
In the past, it's been suggested that a non-stop flight is more expensive than a connecting flight and sometimes flying via LHR say from MAN can be cheaper than flying direct. (edited for getting it the wrong way round!)

If this were the case, is there a somewhat strange situation where flying to some of those US destinations from MAN would be cheaper via DUB on EI or even a US legacy than non-stop, just as those Irish pax are flying to MAN first? I'd be surprised if it were true for TCX but with VS fares possibly.

The other aspect is through-ticketing. I assume it works for flybe from GLA/EDI etc. with code-sharing whereby pax can remain airside at MAN. But pax from DUB connecting to VS at MAN presumably have to check in and clear security again.

 

[David_itl]

Interesting thread on airliners.net about Delta ending thier Philadelphia service to Heathrow in March. One poster has come up with "The MAN focus city is arguably not very successful". Using the US Statistics, I've done this analysis of the various routes by DL and VS last year. Any non-standard cities I've appropriated to the relevant route but there are still 4 flights I couldn't relocate but in the grand scheme of things will be inconsequential

 

[Coathanger16]

In the past, it's been suggested that a non-stop flight is more expensive than a connecting flight and sometimes flying via LHR say from MAN can be dearer than flying direct.

I've heard comments like this many times before.

On certain sites I've heard of people say flying from they're local airport to an airport outside the UK (e.g. Dublin) the night before, then the next day catching a flight from say DUB-LHR-XXX as its apparently cheaper than their local-LHR-XXX or from LHR-XXX.

Its mad how fares work these days.

 

[ethanegcc]

So, actually, arguably, the MAN focus city has a 10% higher load factor than that from London and I think has done reasonably from a standing start. There is masses of disparagement across Airliners.net for Manchester and it's successes and whilst, we on F4A, may be too optimistic, comments such as 'These flights (to LAX and SFO) are nothing to be excited about' are, quite frankly, vindictive and myopic. Just because the flights are seasonal, does not mean they are nothing to be excited about.

 

[Dobbo]

VS/DL development of MAN as a focus City is going to be a long term project if it is to succeed.

This year we have seen a "Big Bang" of JFK, SFO and BOS. It looks like these will continue next summer (after a down winter) and we look for positive trends in 2018 and the following winter.

In the grand scheme of things, a 2/3x weekly rotation to SFO and BOS is not a big deal. To MAN it is, because it is the start of what we hope will be increased connectivity via direct flights to amongst ofhter places the West Coast.

Manchester and the north is growing in relative economic significance. There are challenges ahead, and no-one really knows what is in store from Brexit and the present political polarisation of the UK. There may be a decline in services but MAN is and remains well placed to deal with any uncertainty and we hope the TP will be largely delivered by 2019.

In the meantime, VS and DL can try to grow their offer from MAN, in the face of
Runway constraints in the south east, and hopefully these routes will stick for the long term.

 

[ethanegcc]

VS/DL development of MAN as a focus City is going to be a long term project if it is to succeed.

I completely agree and, this, is why the Manchester hub can't be blamed for every downfall of the VS/DL partnership on airliners.net (which it wrongfully seems to be).

No new route from the UK to the US is a big deal to, let's say, China, but the context in which the poster we refer to said 'it's nothing to be excited about' inferred he/she meant the people potentially using the service on both ends of the route. To those people, it is a massive deal and a link to the Silicon Valley with two airlines for the 20th biggest airport in Europe, not a capital, not an economic or business powerhouse, nor an airline hub can not be disguised for the great wealth of global connectivity it gives to Manchester. Yes, the services are seasonal. Yes, the services may not (yet) be attractive to business travellers who value frequency. But this is the first year of service from a standing start, and two airlines have joined the route. The services look to be returning for Summer 2018, which is great news, and that gives the routes some time to mature as the period of uncertainty begins to pass.

New routes take time to mature and build to a daily frequency. Take Cathay Pacific at Manchester, a massive success. Started off 4x weekly; we then waited a couple of years for the service to 'bed-in' and it increased to 5x weekly this June. It is now increasing to daily from December. Just because a new route is seasonal in it's first year, doesn't mean it should be written off as 'unsuccessful'

 

[Land23R]

Interesting comment on A.net about revenue/yields to which Dobbo has correctly pointed out the high percentage of premium seats on the Virgin A333. As regards fares generally, those shown on the VS web site usually look pretty expensive to me, although I know others have mentioned that cheaper fares are available through other booking engines and agents, and perhaps Virgin Holiday packages also work out with a reasonable air fare content.

Going back to the original issue of transfer pax, it would be interesting to know how many long haul pax MAN are losing to short haul connections to DUB/LHR compared to the number of transfer pax we are gaining (which seems to be growing in significance), and which routes are affected. e.g. on SFO, how many pax are still opting for an indirect routing from MAN rather than the non-stop flights - maybe because frequency is an issue or possibly loyalty schemes with BA?

 

[David_itl]

Premium demand ex-LHR is undoubtedly higher but unless each and every frequency of their routes has upwards of 70% take up, would there be such a hardship in dropping a frequency to some of those destinations? Fewer economy seats to sell down there would mean a greater chance of passengers using the non-LHR routes. I'd also want to get the the non-LHR routes to have fares pegged to be no more than the LHR fare level (and ideally a little bit less) so that the LHR-connecting passenger would be disadvantaged in terms of both time and money.

 

[Dobbo]

How very socialist David!!

Perhaps when VS and a few others get bedded in and attract a decent two way flow of business traffic, we'll see fares drop. I expect the bargain basement fares to IAH for a time have helped SQ, so maybe that is what it will take to get VS settled in on the likes of SFO (possibly LAX in future) which is a risk they obviously don't have to and probably don't want to take...

 

[ethanegcc]

Virgin's San Francisco and Boston routes will resume on 25th/26th May 2018 respectively.

This is a shorter season but it does seem that the routes will resume in a volatile market, and, as some said they wouldn't return full stop, this is better than nothing.

 

[User001]

Those routes won't be back in 2019.

Who they think they are fooling if they think those routes will do well with a June/July/August/September schedule is beyond me.

It's even shorter than the TCX season!

 

[ethanegcc]

Those routes won't be back in 2019.

Who they think they are fooling if they think those routes will do well with a June/July/August/September schedule is beyond me.

It's even shorter than the TCX season!

It's very similar to the TCX season, to be fair to Virgin. I do think they have some hope in 2019, as *hopefully* there will be some more stability and they will be able to expand to a longer season. In addition, is there a timeline for pre-clearance?

 

[Land23R]

But don't forget SFO was pushed as a great business link, not just seasonal leisure. Considering some were hopeful that the route would soon go year round, to have the period of operation reduced to 4 months is hardly encouraging.

And this comes after a winter schedule that sees ATL/JFK reduced to 4/3 x weekly, albeit on a larger a/c than DL used.

I'm no longer sure that it can simply be referred to as 'consolidation'.

 

[User001]

I'm with you Land23R on this one, I fail to see any positive on this.

As you say, we have the winter reductions which have been well documented, but to see SFO/BOS go from March-Oct, down to March-Sept, and now down further from essentially June-Sept, there is nothing positive to look for in that, in fact, given this latest cut has only just happened after being on sale from March 2018 originally, I actually have doubts these routes will run in 2018. I think it will be cut completely, with just ATL/JFK and the beach fleet remaining.

I believe VS cocked up on these routes, by stating these routes were one thing but then not actually giving the route a chance to offer that actual demographic, as well as the fact BOS was purely a way to keep utilisation of the A330 up, these routes were doomed to fail from the start.

I know that's unusually negative from me, but, I've go to say it as I see it, I, not just the 'MAN cheerleader' some people think I am.

 

[Jerry]

If VS do scrap those routes eventually, could they be used for other routes possibly to the East? VS does Delhi from LHR. Also they could look at the Caribbean more possibly.