Interesting thoughts.

With regard to BE, after a period of flux, it would appear to me that the business model finally is clear and make sense. they are a high frequency short-haul regional airline specializing in high frequency city routes and niche holiday routes. Getting bigger equipment therefore is unlikely to fit within their business model.

Lets stick with Berlin and BHX and MAN here as an example.....

BE fly 10x weekly to Berlin from BHX, 2x daily on Mon, Wed and Fri, great for business but not so great for the city break market who tend to go Fri-Sun. A weekend away in Berlin this October flying Fri-Sun is currently costing £145 rtn. Not shocking but also not that cheap. Based on the fact that that the E175 carries 88 pax, that equates to 1,760 seats being provided between BHX and Berlin in a week.

EZY fly 9x weekly to Berlin from MAN, 2x daily on Fri and Sun, not so great for business but perfect for city breakers who normally travel Fri-Sun. The same weekend as above in October is currently costing £112, again not dirt cheap, but £30 would likely be enough to through it for many people. Based on the fact that EZY 320 carry 180 pax, that equates to 3,640 seats being provided between MAN and Berlin a week. To add to that, as of November, FR will add a daily flight between MAN and Berlin increasing weekly capacity to an impressive 6,160 seats!!!

In terms of capacity and competition, BHXs 1,760 seats Vs. MANs 6,160 seat per week wins hands down, in terms of choice, options and availability. Now don't get me wrong, I do not encourage a race to the bottom, where yields suffer and the viability of the route get bought into question, but if BHX is to win back market share back from MAN, this is the type of things they needs to address.

BE could increase BHX - Berlin to 16x weekly compared to the current 10x weekly.... making is 2x daily normally (great for business) with 3x daily Fri and Sun (great for city breakers), increasing weekly capacity to 2,820 seats weekly, and adding upto 55,000 pax annually to the BHX tally.... not new units needed, just the "same old" E175 they know and love, they just need more of them...!!

failing all the above, bring on Jet2, Mon, Ryr for some more competition!!!!
 
Here we go Neil, Alicante total pax in 2015 from UK = 4,376,558
BHX has 6.9% of the market

GATWICK ALICANTE 760,840
LUTON ALICANTE 212,983
SOUTHEND ALICANTE 98,759
STANSTED ALICANTE 224,251
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL ALICANTE 114,865
BIRMINGHAM ALICANTE 301,301
BOURNEMOUTH ALICANTE 59,211
BRISTOL ALICANTE 271,540
CARDIFF WALES ALICANTE 78,110
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON) ALICANTE 4,152
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD ALICANTE 38,311
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL ALICANTE 379,415
EDINBURGH ALICANTE 150,000
EXETER ALICANTE 22,147
GLASGOW ALICANTE 190,522
HUMBERSIDE ALICANTE 1,384
ISLE OF MAN ALICANTE 225
LEEDS BRADFORD ALICANTE 272,104
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) ALICANTE 214,309
MANCHESTER ALICANTE 630,636
NEWCASTLE ALICANTE 234,633
PRESTWICK ALICANTE 75,859
SOUTHAMPTON ALICANTE 41,001
 
Amsterdam = 2015 pax from the UK was 8,889,589
BHX market share 6.3%

GATWICK AMSTERDAM 977,713
HEATHROW AMSTERDAM 1,587,605
LONDON CITY AMSTERDAM 488,104
LUTON AMSTERDAM 418,006
SOUTHEND AMSTERDAM 214,462
STANSTED AMSTERDAM 300,571
ABERDEEN AMSTERDAM 306,004
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST) AMSTERDAM 26,084
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL AMSTERDAM 101,894
BIRMINGHAM AMSTERDAM 563,915
BOURNEMOUTH AMSTERDAM 13,081
BRISTOL AMSTERDAM 384,482
CAMBRIDGE AMSTERDAM 508
CARDIFF WALES AMSTERDAM 129,186
DURHAM TEES VALLEY AMSTERDAM 105,636
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL AMSTERDAM 45,275
EDINBURGH AMSTERDAM 621,195
EXETER AMSTERDAM 43,621
GLASGOW AMSTERDAM 425,444
HUMBERSIDE AMSTERDAM 121,893
INVERNESS AMSTERDAM 33,179
JERSEY AMSTERDAM 73
LEEDS BRADFORD AMSTERDAM 250,568
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) AMSTERDAM 227,383
MANCHESTER AMSTERDAM 853,427
NEWCASTLE AMSTERDAM 380,012
NORWICH AMSTERDAM 142,409
PRESTWICK AMSTERDAM 95
SOUTHAMPTON AMSTERDAM 127,764
 
Barcelona 2015 pax from UK was 4,112,334
BHX market share was 4.7%

GATWICK BARCELONA 1,338,598
HEATHROW BARCELONA 673,519
LUTON BARCELONA 181,503
SOUTHEND BARCELONA 59,826
STANSTED BARCELONA 490,068
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST) BARCELONA 10,456
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL BARCELONA 37,924
BIRMINGHAM BARCELONA 193,334
BRISTOL BARCELONA 132,045
CARDIFF WALES BARCELONA 19,813
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL BARCELONA 80,915
EDINBURGH BARCELONA 121,895
GLASGOW BARCELONA 35,961
HUMBERSIDE BARCELONA 335
JERSEY BARCELONA 171
LEEDS BRADFORD BARCELONA 76,461
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) BARCELONA 232,096
MANCHESTER BARCELONA 284,365
NEWCASTLE BARCELONA 66,279
PRESTWICK BARCELONA 76,770
 
Faro had 3,441,837 pax from the UK in 2015
BHX market share was 6.1%

GATWICK FARO 749,514
HEATHROW FARO 17,019
LONDON CITY FARO 4,815
LUTON FARO 220,089
SOUTHEND FARO 93,956
STANSTED FARO 183,016
ABERDEEN FARO 6,953
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST) FARO 59,053
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL FARO 113,758
BIRMINGHAM FARO 208,693
BOURNEMOUTH FARO 33,533
BRISTOL FARO 272,715
CARDIFF WALES FARO 22,235
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON) FARO 2,902
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD FARO 17,884
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL FARO 235,491
EDINBURGH FARO 99,255
EXETER FARO 27,678
GLASGOW FARO 96,754
JERSEY FARO 603
LEEDS BRADFORD FARO 188,599
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) FARO 169,490
MANCHESTER FARO 424,396
NEWCASTLE FARO 110,283
PRESTWICK FARO 55,961
SOUTHAMPTON FARO 27,192
 
Malaga had 4,619,704 pax from the UK in 2015
BHX market share = 6.3%

GATWICK MALAGA 1,041,356
HEATHROW MALAGA 19,514
LONDON CITY MALAGA 51,879
LUTON MALAGA 254,198
SOUTHEND MALAGA 81,673
STANSTED MALAGA 356,908
ABERDEEN MALAGA 4,246
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST) MALAGA 54,456
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL MALAGA 117,770
BIRMINGHAM MALAGA 290,778
BOURNEMOUTH MALAGA 66,422
BRISTOL MALAGA 299,986
CARDIFF WALES MALAGA 67,920
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD MALAGA 38,495
DURHAM TEES VALLEY MALAGA 35
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL MALAGA 275,056
EDINBURGH MALAGA 144,401
EXETER MALAGA 22,478
GLASGOW MALAGA 165,154
JERSEY MALAGA 699
LEEDS BRADFORD MALAGA 231,108
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) MALAGA 194,064
MANCHESTER MALAGA 556,720
NEWCASTLE MALAGA 169,855
OXFORD (KIDLINGTON) MALAGA 35
PRESTWICK MALAGA 72,088
SOUTHAMPTON MALAGA 42,410
 
Palma total pax from UK in 2015 was 4,609,840
BHX market share = 5.5%

GATWICK PALMA DE MALLORCA 710,848
HEATHROW PALMA DE MALLORCA 123,584
LONDON CITY PALMA DE MALLORCA 34,479
LUTON PALMA DE MALLORCA 246,102
SOUTHEND PALMA DE MALLORCA 45,058
STANSTED PALMA DE MALLORCA 320,455
ABERDEEN PALMA DE MALLORCA 28,163
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST) PALMA DE MALLORCA 11,480
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL PALMA DE MALLORCA 137,405
BIRMINGHAM PALMA DE MALLORCA 254,763
BOURNEMOUTH PALMA DE MALLORCA 102,678
BRISTOL PALMA DE MALLORCA 288,943
CARDIFF WALES PALMA DE MALLORCA 78,579
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD PALMA DE MALLORCA 56,609
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL PALMA DE MALLORCA 326,998
EDINBURGH PALMA DE MALLORCA 157,056
EXETER PALMA DE MALLORCA 49,179
GLASGOW PALMA DE MALLORCA 214,190
HUMBERSIDE PALMA DE MALLORCA 8,262
ISLE OF MAN PALMA DE MALLORCA 2,283
JERSEY PALMA DE MALLORCA 3,695
LEEDS BRADFORD PALMA DE MALLORCA 226,386
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON) PALMA DE MALLORCA 181,544
MANCHESTER PALMA DE MALLORCA 666,403
NEWCASTLE PALMA DE MALLORCA 227,063
NORWICH PALMA DE MALLORCA 29,789
PRESTWICK PALMA DE MALLORCA 53,941
SOUTHAMPTON PALMA DE MALLORCA 23,905
 
You're on fire Ian!!!

Casing points bellow:

  • EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL ALICANTE 379,415
  • BIRMINGHAM ALICANTE 301,302

  • EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL FARO 235,491
  • BIRMINGHAM FARO 208,693

  • EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL PALMA DE MALLORCA 326,998
  • BIRMINGHAM PALMA DE MALLORCA 254,763

Forget MAN, that after all is of a different scale and in some respects different markets. EMA on the other hand is smaller and in direct competition with BHX!
 
Many thanks Ian, some very interesting numbers. It goes to show that despite all of the great work that has been done so far there is still a long way to go.

The sun routes make for poor viewing, this is bread an butter stuff and Palma in particular is pretty dismal. I hope that we'll see this route from Vueling and/or Norwegian in 2017.
 
Chicago is an interesting one. We managed a near 10-year long service before (operated by AA and then PIA for a short while).
 
my "unofficial list" of regular scheduled or charter destinations served from Birmingham since 1986:-

Destination Airport
CountryCurrently Served By BHX
AberdeenUKYes
AgadirTunisiaYes
AlgheroItalyNo
AlicanteSpainYes
AlmeriaSpainYes
AmritsarIndiaYes
AmsterdamHollandYes
AntalyaTurkeyYes
AntwerpBelgiumNo
AqabaJordanYes
ArrecifeSpainYes
ArubaArubaNo
ArvidsjaurSwedenNo
AshkhabadTurkmenistanNo
AthensGreeceYes
AugsburgGermanyNo
AvignonFranceNo
BanjulGambiaNo
BarcelonaSpainYes
BasleSwitzerlandNo
BastiaCorsicaNo
BeijingChinaNo
BelfastNorthern IrelandYes
Belfast CityNorthern IrelandYes
BergenNorwayYes
BergeracFranceYes
Berlin BrandenburgGermanyYes
Berlin TegalGermanyNo
BerneSwitzerlandNo
BiarritzFranceNo
BillundDenmarkNo
BishkekKyrgyzstanNo
Boa VistaCape VerdeYes
BodrumTurkeyYes
BolognaItalyNo
BolzanoItalyNo
BordeauxFranceYes
BourgasBulgariaYes
BratislaviaSlovakiaNo
BresciaItalyNo
BrestFranceNo
BridgetownBarbadosYes
BrusselsBelgiumYes
BucharestRomaniaYes
BudapestHungaryYes
BydgoszczPolandYes
CaenFranceNo
CancunMexicoYes
CataniaItalyYes
ChamberyFranceYes
ChaniaGreeceYes
ChicagoUSANo
ChisinauMoldovaNo
Cluj-NapocaRomaniaNo
CochinIndiaNo
Cologne BonnGermanyNo
ColomboSri LankaNo
ComisoSicilyNo
CopenhagenDenmarkYes
CorfuGreeceYes
CorkRep Of IrelandYes
CraiovaRomaniaYes
CuneoItalyNo
DalamanTurkeyYes
DallasUSANo
DeauvilleFranceNo
DelhiIndiaYes
DetroitUSANo
DinardFranceNo
DjerbaTunisiaNo
DohaQatarYes
DonegalNorthern IrelandNo
DubaiUnited Arab EmiratesYes
Dubai World CentralUnited Arab EmiratesNo
DublinRep Of IrelandYes
DubrovnikCroatiaYes
DundeeUKNo
DushanbeTajikistanNo
DusseldorfGermanyYes
Dusseldorf WeezeGermanyNo
East MidlandsUKNo
EdinburghUKYes
EindhovenHollandNo
EnfidhaTunisiaYes
EnontekioFinlandYes
ErcanNorth CyprusNo
ExeterUKNo
FagernesNorwayNo
FaroPortugalYes
FlorenceItalyNo
ForliItalyNo
FrankfurtGermanyYes
Frankfurt HahnGermanyNo
FuerteventuraSpainYes
FunchalMaderiaYes
GalwayRep Of IrelandNo
GdanskPolandNo
GenevaSwitzerlandYes
GenoaItalyNo
GeronaSpainYes
GibraltarGibraltarNo
GlasgowUKYes
GoaIndiaNo
GothenburgSwedenNo
GrazAustriaNo
GrenobleFranceYes
GuernseyUKYes
GuryevKazakhstanNo
GuterslohGermanyNo
HamburgGermanyNo
HanoverGermanyNo
HelsinkiFinlandNo
HeraklionGreeceYes
HurghadaEgyptYes
IbizaSpainYes
InnsbruckAustriaYes
InvernessUKNo
IslamabadPakistanNo
Isle Of ManUKYes
IstanbulTurkeyYes
Istanbul Sabiha GokcenTurkeyYes
IvaloFinlandYes
IzmirTurkeyYes
JeddahSaudi ArabiaYes
JerseyUKYes
KalamataGreeceYes
KarachiPakistanNo
KatowicePolandNo
KaunasLatviaNo
KavalaGreeceYes
KefaloniaGreeceYes
KievUkraineNo
KirkwallUKNo
KirunaSwedenNo
KittilaFinlandYes
KnockRep Of IrelandYes
KosGreeceYes
KrakowPolandYes
KuusamoFinlandYes
La RochelleFranceNo
La RomanaDominican RepublicNo
LahorePakistanNo
LangkawiMalaysiaNo
LarnacaCyprusYes
LasiRomaniaNo
Las PalmasSpainYes
Le HavreFranceNo
LimogesFranceNo
LisbonPortugalYes
LiverpoolUKNo
LjubljanaSloveniaNo
LleidaFranceNo
LondonderryNorthern IrelandNo
London GatwickUKNo
London HeathrowUKNo
LourdesFranceNo
LuxembourgLuxembourgNo
LuxorEgyptNo
LyonFranceNo
MadridSpainYes
MahonSpainYes
MalagaSpainYes
MalmoSwedenNo
Malta LuqaMaltaYes
ManchesterUKNo
MarrakechMoroccoYes
Marsa AlamEgyptNo
MarseilleFranceNo
Milan BergamoItalyYes
Milan LinateItalyNo
Milan MalpensaItalyYes
MonastirTunisiaNo
Montego BayJamaciaYes
MontpellierFranceNo
MoscowRussiaNo
MumbaiIndiaNo
MunichGermanyYes
MunsterGermanyNo
MurciaSpainYes
MuscatOmanNo
MytileneGreeceYes
NantesFranceNo
NaplesItalyYes
New OrleansUSANo
New York JFKUSANo
New York NewarkUSANo
NewcastleUKNo
NewquayUKNo
NiceFranceYes
NuremburgGermanyNo
OlbiaSardiniaYes
OrlandoUSANo
Orlando MelbourneUSAYes
Orlando SanfordUSANo
OsloNorwayNo
Oslo TorpNorwayNo
PaderbornGermanyNo
Pajala YllasSwedenYes
PalmaSpainYes
PaphosCyprusYes
Paris BeauvaisFranceYes
Paris CDGFranceYes
Paris OrlyFranceNo
PerpignanFranceYes
PershawarPakistanNo
PhiladelphiaUSANo
PhuketThailandNo
PisaItalyYes
PlovdivBulgariaNo
PodgoricaMontenegroYes
PoitiersFranceNo
PortoPortugalYes
Porto SantoMaderiaNo
PoznanPolandYes
PragueCzech RepublicYes
PrevezaGreeceYes
Puerto PlataDominican RepublicNo
PulaCroatiaYes
Punta CanaDominican RepublicYes
RennesFranceNo
ReusSpainYes
ReykjavikIcelandYes
RhodesGreeceYes
RigaLatviaNo
RiminiItalyNo
Rome CiampinoItalyNo
Rome FiumicinoItalyYes
RotterdamHollandNo
RovaniemiFinlandYes
RzeszowPolandYes
SalCape VerdeYes
SalzburgAustriaYes
SantanderSpainYes
Santo DomingoDominican RepublicNo
SantoriniGreeceYes
SevilleSpainYes
ShannonRep Of IrelandYes
Sharm El SheikhEgyptYes
SingaporeSingaporeNo
SkiathosGreeceYes
SofiaBulgariaYes
SouthamptonUKNo
SplitCroatiaYes
StockholmDenmarkYes
Stockholm SkavstaDenmarkNo
StuttgartGermanyNo
SzczecinPolandNo
TabaEgyptNo
TangiersMoroccoNo
TashkentUzbekistanNo
TehranIranNo
Tenerife NorthSpainNo
Tenerife SouthSpainYes
ThessalonikiGreeceYes
TiranaAlbaniaYes
TivatMontenegroYes
TorontoCanadaNo
Toronto HamiltonCanadaNo
ToulouseFranceYes
TrapaniSicilyNo
TriesteItalyNo
TunisTunisiaNo
TurinItalyYes
U-TapaoThailandNo
ValenciaSpainYes
VarnaBulgariaNo
VeniceItalyYes
Venice TrevisoItalyNo
VeronaItalyYes
ViennaAustriaYes
VilniusLithuaniaNo
VolosGreeceNo
WarsawPolandYes
Warsaw ModlinPolandNo
WaterfordRep Of IrelandNo
WroclawPolandNo
YerevanArmeniaNo
ZadarCroatiaYes
ZakynthosGreeceYes
ZurichSwitzerlandYes

280 destinations/airports in total.

The "Currently Served By BHX" column is based on this summer and winter, as we know some routes are being dropped, some new routes starting, so please take it as a rough guide!
 
Very much appreciated Matt although I believe that La Romana is still going albeit winter only and unfortunately no Warsaw anymore.

Some big, big holes there, notably Eastern Europe, Germany and Regional France.

So many people in my office are going to Thailand I really wish they could get TUi to bring back Phuket.

Some of those I'd totally forgotten about such as TCX to Comiso, BE to Deauville and Toronto Hamilton, was that Flyglobespan?
 
Very much appreciated Matt although I believe that La Romana is still going albeit winter only and unfortunately no Warsaw anymore.

Some big, big holes there, notably Eastern Europe, Germany and Regional France.

So many people in my office are going to Thailand I really wish they could get TUi to bring back Phuket.

Some of those I'd totally forgotten about such as TCX to Comiso, BE to Deauville and Toronto Hamilton, was that Flyglobespan?

Yes La Romana is back for this winter, and Hamilton was indeed on Flyglobespan!
 

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