Route Development & Rumours

[andrew.clarkson]

Route Development

I think that its alright keogh trying to get air india,air china, and all the other asian airlines to come on board, but what about emirates,united airlines, he needs to ask them, that once runway extension opens next year 2014, will they extended their flights direct to peth,sydney,melbourne,brisbane, boston,chicago,los angeles,miami, st louis, dallas-fort worth, plus welcoming all the other airlines the same thing so that more choice and millions of passengers fly from Birmingham & not heathrow,gatwick....these are the questions that keogh has got to ask himself.......thanks Andy C

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Don't the likes of Emirates and United both serve their respective hubs offering a convenient one stop connection to the destinations mentioned? I'd like to see some new long haul routes from BHX but I don't see a direct BHX-Perth or BHX-St Louis service being viable.

It's alright BHX chasing the long haul glamour routes but I hope they aren't taking their eye off the ball closer to home. Direct links to Shanghai are one thing but what about Madrid, Lisbon, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest, Oslo, Vienna..... plus numerous other European destinations that would benefit from a better frequency?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Direct links to Shanghai are one thing but what about Madrid, Lisbon, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest, Oslo, Vienna

BHX has no flights to any of these destinations? Seems unbelievable if I'm reading this right.

Don't the likes of Emirates and United both serve their respective hubs offering a convenient one stop connection to the destinations mentioned? I'd like to see some new long haul routes from BHX but I don't see a direct BHX-Perth or BHX-St Louis service being viable.

Emirates seem to route all their flights via Dubai for an aircraft change in respect of those passengers travelling further afield.

I've used EK at BHX to travel to/from Australia changing at DXB. I'd like to do so again but in recent years I've had better deals flying with the airline from London to Oz (again via DXB) and that situation remains when I fly to MEL later this year from LGW with EK.

 

[User0001]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

BHX has no flights to any of these destinations? Seems unbelievable if I'm reading this right.

Currently it does not serve these cities no.

Also, Stockholm on SAS seems to have become a 'seasonal' route, while I have seen it reported somewhere Ryanair are to close their Brataslava route, thus cutting the nearby link to Vienna further.

I think Euro 'legacy' routes actually seem to be quite poor from BHX. Yes its great having them on your departure boards, but when you look closer, it isn't as strong as it could be.

Take Lufthansa, it mainly uses the smaller B737 on Frankfurt (while MAN and EDI get regular A321's)(it is also worth mentioning this route gets cut from 4 to 3 for some weeks in winter, something that has not happened before), and Munich is on the E195, while MAN gets the A319/A320. Air France often sends in the A318 (smallest aircraft on the mainline fleet), while lastly SAS usually send the CRJ900 on a lot of Copenhagen flights, while MAN/EDI only see the B737 and A319/A320/A321 fleet.

This points to a slight weakness where more advertising is needed. Yes, its fantastic having high aspirations for long haul, but, when you are missing out on key European links, and the smallest capacity possible on other very key links, one has to raise questions where your priorities lie. Do you spend time and money chasing something that may never happen, or, focus energy on improving something you already have so its the best it can be?

So, what can BHX expect Euro wise?

Well, getting FRA and MUC up to regular Airbus operations would be a start. There are certain routes that will benefit certain airlines at BHX, which are as follows:

Warsaw and Budapest. Get Ryanair on board with a stronger commitment. They already have a base, so they can't be unhappy with fees at BHX. The hard part has been done (getting them into BHX), getting them to start the routes should be childs play!

Helsinki: Get Finnair on board. Yes there is the common joke 'oneworld don't do BHX', but, as Finnair offer the shortest connection/route time to the desired cities in China, would be perfect to really test the market and see if demand exists to Shanghai and Beijing. Also, as they use flybe to operate their Embraer fleet, finnair have the right sized aircraft and BHX could use flybe as the negotiator.

Madrid: Would have to be BHX based as Iberia seem to be in dire straits and Easyjet pulled the base. Spanair announced BHX a few years back but then went cold on the idea before going bust. Air Europa don't seem to do the UK apart from charters and the LGW route. So, Ryanair or Monarch (Monarch have tried MAN-MAD in the past, and when I used it was certainly well used), are the only real choices (unless easyjet open a base).

Lisbon. TAP!!!!! They have had a whale of a time at MAN, and have publicly stated they will be running at least 12 weekly flights next year. The best part is, TAP came to MAN for the connections to Brazil, yet, 70% of the MAN-LIS flights are origin and destination, meaning that only 30% are connecting, which in tur. means there is still huge potential for the route. There is even a Portuguese consulate in MAN due to the high number of Portugal and Brazil bound travellers from the area.
TAP seems an obvious fit for BHX, being in star alliance too. They have the Fokker 100 to utilise which is a perfect starting block for BHX, and I would be amazed if BHX is not doing all it can to get TAP onboard after seeing their success up North.

Prague: This is possibly one of the harder routes to attract. From the UK regions, only Easyjet and Jet2 offer flights, none of which are based at BHX. There is not really anyone at the Czech end either, given that CSA ended its UK routes quite a while back.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

I think they should work on securing those Euro routes more/as much as they seem to be working to secure a link to China. But would BHX actually get a direct link to China before MAN? It depends if the demand is there, as it was for a link to India.

I can see Emirates possibly expanding to three daily, or deploying an A380 on the lunchtime route, in the next year.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Direct links to Shanghai are one thing but what about Madrid, Lisbon, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest, Oslo, Vienna

BHX has no flights to any of these destinations? Seems unbelievable if I'm reading this right.

No it doesn't. Madrid has come and gone over the years with Ryanair last on the route a couple of years back. Lisbon was a bmibaby route that never got took on by anyone although loads were very healthy and prices didn't seem to be the cheapest. Prague was another baby route lost. Budapest was operated 2x weekly by Ryanair until they had a fall out with the airport, Warsaw was also operated by Ryanair but has come and gone over the years. I can't remember when BHX last had a direct Vienna flight, Ryanair to Bratislava is the closest at the moment.

when you are missing out on key European links, and the smallest capacity possible on other very key links

Whilst I do agree, I have been told (unofficially) that BHX's high charges are one of the main reasons airlines are reluctant to add bigger aircraft as the heavier they are the more they cost in fees and at BHX prices it just isn't worth it.

Well, getting FRA and MUC up to regular Airbus operations would be a start

Munich is a prime example. It is very well used by BMW employees to/from Hams Hall, business is regulary sold out often with the money making last minute seats, the flight is regularly overbooked yet it remains on the 175?

I think they should work on securing those Euro routes more/as much as they seem to be working to secure a link to China.

If BHX want serious growth in pax numbers then a good solid Euro network with times and frequencies to suit when people want them is a must. The biggest complaints about BHX are lack of destinations or inadequate frequencies, followed by being overly expensive. Why would an airline open a route to Shanghai at an airport that can't even sustain one to Madrid, or Lisbon etc.... The thing is lots of noises have been made about the runway extension and I get the feeling BHX are going all out to desperately try and get something in place for the opening publicity.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

But would BHX actually get a direct link to China before MAN? It depends if the demand is there, as it was for a link to India.

I think a direct link to China outside of London is a couple of years away yet. Birmingham and Manchester have similar sized Chinese communities but if you add sizable populations in the likes of Liverpool and Sheffield then the North West definitely has a bigger population the Midlands. Birmingham does have strong manufacturing links with China and I could see business class doing quite well from BHX. In the end it will come down to which airport the airline thinks it can make the most money from and which airport offers the best deal (sadly not BHX's strong point :nea: ).

I can see Emirates possibly expanding to three daily, or deploying an A380 on the lunchtime route, in the next year.

An Emirates third daily is definitely happening it's just a case of when. Around the same time you'll most likely see the lunchtime flight changed to a three class 777 and first made available, if this does well you'll then see an upgrade to the A380.

 

[User0001]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Birmingham and Manchester have similar sized Chinese communities

I assume you quote the figures used on Wikipedia for these?

Im not sure how on earth these were collated as at BA, we can use more in depth MORI/CAA stats and they show the Manchester population is much much higher than Birmingham, and Im talking nearly double the size. The student populations help spur this population, but it is well known that Manchester itself has one of the largest Chinese populations in Europe.
Then, as you say, if we add in the 1 hour catchments of Liverpool and Sheffield, the number suddenly gets much higher than the 1 hour BHX catchment again.

If there is to be a regional UK route to China, I say this not as a pro-MAN person, but as an aviation worker, I would be gobsmacked if a route is picked ahead of MAN (However Cathay Pacific have already publicly stated their intention to return to MAN (Cathay is MAN's version of Air India to BHX))

 

[Ash]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

It's not often discussed which airport in China that MAN and BHX are supposedly chasing. It just seems to be always referred to as a generic "China Link". Ignoring HK which mainland airport has the higher UK demand PVG or PEK?

 

[User0001]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

PEK has the higher leisure and defacto VFR traffic, while PVG has the higher manufacturing and business links.

I cannot link them due to them being an internal closed link, the markets for the 2 airports sits something like (off memory):

MAN-PEK 69000 O&D per anum
MAN-PVG 43000 O&D per anum


BHX-PEK 35000 O&D per anum
BHX-PVG 29000 O&D per anum

Other main points in China are:

MAN-HKG 162000 O&D pax per anum (mainly student and VFR flows)
BHX-HKG 21000 O&D pax per anum (shows the size of the gap between the 2!)

The only point in China where the BHX demand was larger than MAN was Wuhan, which MAN was around 6000 and BHX around 7500.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Birmingham and Manchester have similar sized Chinese communities

I assume you quote the figures used on Wikipedia for these?

No.

Im not sure how on earth these were collated as at BA, we can use more in depth MORI/CAA stats and they show the Manchester population is much much higher than Birmingham, and Im talking nearly double the size. The student populations help spur this population, but it is well known that Manchester itself has one of the largest Chinese populations in Europe.

Would CAA stats really be a reliable indicator of resident population? And although Manchester does have a very high proportion of Chinese students wouldn't these be in the U.K. on student visas rather than permanent residency? Not trying to be argumentative as you may well be correct but I've never heard Manchester quoted as one of the largest populations in Europe, I've only ever heard about Liverpool having the oldest.


The figures I used are from the Office of National Statistics and are as follows.

The 2011 census showed the population of Manchester to be 503,000 with a Chinese community of 1.76% equalling approx 8850.

The 2011 census showed the population of Birmingham to be 1,074,300 with a Chinese community of 1.1% equalling approx 11925.

Not really a fair figure as the City of Birmingham is roughly double the size of the City of Manchester so I compared the regions which are more or less the same size.

The 2011 census showed the population of Greater Manchester to be 2,682,500 with a Chinese community of 0.77% equalling approx 20655.

The 2011 census showed the population of the West Midlands County to be 2,738,100 with a Chinese community of 0.89% equalling approx 24369.

However Cathay Pacific have already publicly stated their intention to return to MAN (Cathay is MAN's version of Air India to BHX))

If you break down the local Chinese populations historically a large proportion of Manchester's Chinese community originated from Hong Kong rather than mainland China.

 

[User0001]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Would CAA stats really be a reliable indicator of resident population

No, the CAA figures are used to determine market size, MORI and NOS are used for population size index which are updated from the 2011 census. I have also seen some other stats as a sideline but are not officially used as not government endorsed.
Im not trying to be deliberately argumentative, but I can tell you now the Chinese population is bigger in Manchester than Birmingham as residents go, and the student immigration only pushes this up further.

Like I say, unfortunately I cannot link as its a closed link, but, the figures I have seen date from September 2012. I will try and get the exact figures when I can as obviously not at work now.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Birmingham Airport - General Thread

Talking about the Chinese population in either Manchester or Birmingham is a little besides the point really when any new potential service whether it be from Manchester or Birmingham is going to require a sizable numbers of passengers from both sides for the route to be successful. A scheduled service which has to rely solely on a China Town population in the UK wont work. In any case, China is facing an economic slowdown like the rest of us so it's likely to be a while before we see any route announcements benefiting the UK regions.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development

Quite agree, time to move on.

Last year Jet2 were rumoured to be opening another UK base in 2014 and BHX was mentioned as a contender along with DSA and others. I heard recently that talks with Jet2 were going very well but Jet2 suddenly lost interest (possibly when they were told what they'd have to pay ). I know people on here are close to Jet2 so if they are allowed to say my questions are firstly, are they still planning another UK base, and secondly, if so, is BHX still an option or have they lost interest totally?

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development

Airblue are heading for BHX, which many of us know about already.

A service to ORD or MAN would be the tip of the iceberg.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development

A service to ORD or MAN would be the tip of the iceberg

Youll be hard pushed to find an airline willing to operate BHX-MAN!

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development

Oops, typo. I meant MAD, as in Madrid. :blush:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Birmingham Airport Rumours

GLA-MAN-BHX-ISB-LHE on a 747 anyone?

Hassaan before you get excited read the last paragraph :s_yes

Air Kashmir Flights Starting From Glasgow Manchester & Birmingham

Rumours have surfaced recently about a new proposed airline “Air Kashmir” to start operations from the UK to Pakistan, it appears that there is currently no relevant information about the the airline, there does not appear to be a website although a domain name has been taken for air kashmir. There is currently no information about the registered owner of the domain name either, and no company information on the companies house register. It may be the case the company is formed outside of the UK and it may appear in the public domain sometime in the very near future!

Currently there is no direct flight operating from Glasgow and Emirates airlines is the only option for passengers traveling out of Glasgow although not direct Emirates does have two weekly flights with short connections from its hub in Dubai to Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar. The demand has never been so high for flights to Pakistan as PIA and Airblue are the only two airlines currently flying out from Manchester Airport and operating Direct flights to Islamabad and Lahore. The competition between the two main Pakistani based carriers have been to the benefit of their passengers with both PIA and Airblue offering significant savings on advance purchase fares with typical off peak fares starting form as low as £400 return including taxes for Adults. At busy periods both Air Blue & PIA are operating at maximum capacity therefore paving way for new carriers such as Air Kashmir may prove to be a greater possibility today than ever before.

From our sources (unofficial) it is understood that the new airline Air Kashmir will begin operations from Glasgow to Lahore and Islamabad via Manchester and Birmingham International airports, it is not clear at this stage the exact route the airline will take however suggestions are that the operations will start from either Glasgow or Manchester airport, the type of aircraft speculated is a Boeing 747 again no confirmation has been received by the management or owners of the airline or indeed if it holds an air operator certificate (AOC). This licence is mandatory for any carrier / airline wanting to start operating passenger flights.

In recent years there have been a number of failed operations from the UK to Pakistan, very recently UK International Airlines (UKIA) started operating from East Midlands Airport to Islamabad, this proved to be a very unsuccessful business venture with only a few flights actually making a round trip journey with most having been severely delayed, cancelled, technical problems and there were unconfirmed reports it had landed at the wrong airport in Dubai or Sharjah via en-route to Islamabad Pakistan!, it was one of the biggest failures and poorly managed airlines in recent years to have surfaced from the UK with its head office location based on the 2nd floor of a furniture shop in Sheffield. The airline’s name UK International which quite clearly does not accurately represent the UK’s high standards lasted for about 8 weeks and caused significant inconvenience and financial losses to its passengers.

http://www.mushtaqtravel.co.uk/blog/air ... birmingham

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Birmingham Airport Rumours

UK international airlines - it was suspended because of security issues.

We have services to Pakistan anyway - Glasgow may well benefit more.

 

[User0001]

Re: Birmingham Airport Rumours

Aaand there it is.

Was told about this a few weeks ago. Dis-organised is not the word.

Have paid for handling and maintenance at MAN for a B747-300, but have not yet got an aircraft (nor have they even got one in mind).

They are unsure of a route, have not even spoke to GLA about flights, have not applied formally to the CAA.

In other words, no breath should be held just yet.....