Route Development & Rumours

[Birmingham Aviation]

Ant, haven't had the chance to check all the "restart" February flights, but I have found a few adjustments to your list

TUI's Verona has been operating since the end of December once weekly, Montego Bay has always been twice weekly

Eurowings Prague only operated in December, and is not operating for the rest of the winter period.

Ryanair Barcelona has always been 8 a week, likewise Alicante has always been 10 a week.

curious to know where you have seen these flight reductions?

I’m comparing the frequency to January.

Yes your right about Barca and Alicante also Verona and Montego Bay.

What I’m trying to do is a January vs February increases schedule if you understand.

Thank you for helping me

 

[TM3]

New Birmingham Airport Asia routes as airlines in talks with 'booming' hub​

MSN

I think there is definitely unserved interest to the far east from BHX.

One of the articles I saw recently stated that Singapore Airlines wanted daily slots for their new route to Gatwick but were only allowed 5 weekly.

Singapore Airlines wanted daily flights to and from London Gatwick

Singapore Airlines applied for daily flights between Changi Airport and London Gatwick Airport next summer, but the slots regulator knocked them back – offering only five timings a week.

mainlymiles.com

SQ are obviously restricted from expanding at LHR and are clearly open to try other airports with overlapping cachement areas. Personally I don't really see any difference between serving LGW and BHX, if anything there is more competition at LGW.

As Singapore has a very liberal air services agreement with the UK such that it can operate just about any route it wants as 5th freedom; https://www.caas.gov.sg/who-we-are/...-open-skies-agreement-with-the-united-kingdom

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-singapore-uk-open-skies-idUKSIN30210020071003/

SQ have demonstrated an eagerness to operate transatlantic routes through the UK such as MAN-HOU, SQ have considerable experience of making these 5th freedom routes work. East coast US is clearly of interest to SQ due to the limitations of serving those destinations via direct flights.

It seems that BHX represents a unique oportunity for SQ to enter the biggest city in the UK without a direct far east connection or a direct USA connection and serve both markets. They would also both benefit from connections at each end.

I'm sure some people are going to say Singapore Airlines are too premium for Birmingham but I think this completely understates the important of Birmingham and the surrounding Midlands cachement area to the UK economy.

LHR stats state that >20k business passengers fly from LHR daily , obviously the Birmingham cachement area is smaller but we are only talking about 40 business class seats each day on an A350-900 on each route if every single business class seat is sold/

Facts and figures

Heathrow's operational facts and figures

www.heathrow.com

 

[gulftraveller]

Not a unique opportunity, I fear. The problem is, as with EK, SQ has most of the desirable US destinations covered and does not need more ‘double drop’ routes. From BHX, to be of any use, it would have to be JFK which SQ covers non stop trans Pacific, as well as a one stop via FRA. I doubt they need another JFK service and transferring the successful FRA-JFK to a speculative BHX-JFK is a non starter. The UK requirement for transfer passengers to reclear security does not help.

SQ is a conservative airline which expands its long haul operations only after very careful consideration.

 

[TM3]

I gave a lot of consideration to whether the opportunity was unique based on the conditions I listed and the only other carrier I could see with a similar opportunity was Malaysia Airlines.

Malaysia has a similarly broad open skies agreement, which, like the one with Singapore, would allow the carrier to operate and sell domestic connections in the UK as well as onbound flights to the US or another country.
On the plus side there aren't any direct flights between Malaysia and the US, neither are there any one stop routes operated by Malaysia to any cities in the US. That said however I still think Singapore is a much bigger and better opportunity as there is so much more demand to go there. Singapore itself is also a much bigger city than Kuala Lumpur.

On the subject of if SQ are conservative I think there are actually quite aggressive in terms of their pursuit of growth, and they are well funded. I do think they use 5th freedoms to very good effect to expand the markets they serve and maximise profit rather than just link destinations that are out of the range of their aircraft.

New York is the only eastern seaboard destination SQ serve. They operae 2 direct routes to JFK and Newark, both on A350 ULRs. The ULR has an all premium config, so they only sell business and premium economy on those flights, at a premium. For context there are about 160 seats on those flights, so fewer seats than Jet2 sell on a 737-800 to Majorca.

They also operate a single A380 one stop through Frankfurt to JFK which obviously has a lot of seats but they also sell a lot of seats to German and US passengers. This is a long established route and local flyers like it as they can fly with better product than Lufthansa or United but still earn their frequent flyer miles and status. SQ do not codeshare with any Lufhansa group airlines or US airlines between the US an Europe but they do have codeshares on an extensive portfolio of routes out of JFK with JetBlue.

SQ does have an extensive set of connections with VS however, both through LHR and MAN. This covers covers JFK flights both at LHR and MAN and to a lot of Virgin's other US destinations.

The link to SQ's codeshares is here: https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/sg/plan-travel/partner-airlines/our-other-partners/#

Airlines typically don't make money on codeshare flights operated by a partner, codeshare destinations do allow airlines to serve destinations out of their network, ofter after the passenger buys a connecting flight with the home airline.

As such SQ must already know they have demand on all of the codeshare destinations VS operate. This means if they took any of those routes through BHX they could continue to sell those routes but they woudl be earning money for SQ rather than VS on tickets between Singapore and the US.

They would also be able to benefit from 2 of completely new markets, without any competition out of BHX being:

Birmingham - (JFK?/Other) direct
Birmingham - Singapore direct

In addition they could aslo enter a number of competive markets 1 stop, such as BHX - US 1 stop, BHX - Asia 1 stop and BHX - Aus/NZ 1 stop.

As a highly respected premium airline SQ are always going to be able to cream of a certain amount of those markets without competing on price.

I'd also throw Vistara into the mix (which is 49% owned by SQ), as there is clearly demand BHX-India which could feed any SQ US connection, should they chose to enter that market in the furture.

SQ have historically expressed a strong interest in operating LHR-US flights but this clearly isn't going to be possible due to the lack of availability of slots at LHR. There is however the possibility of picking up some of LHR's current cachement at BHX if sufficiently appealing connections are offered.

 

[Timberwolf]

LHR stats state that >20k business passengers fly from LHR daily , obviously the Birmingham cachement area is smaller but we are only talking about 40 business class seats each day on an A350-900 on each route if every single business class seat is sold/

The problem is for BHX, Singapore Airlines as others have said is a premium airline.

Into MAN they operate A359s is seating..42 Business, 24 Premium economy but only 187 economy seats.

Now compare that with EK into Birmingham, who operate 2 class B77Ws in 40 business class but a massive 382 in economy.To make it pay.

So with a much lower economy class capacity on the SQ, assume their front end yield would need to be high.

Does BHX have those sort of yields long haul ?,

 

[TM3]

The problem is for BHX, Singapore Airlines as others have said is a premium airline.

Into MAN they operate A359s is seating..42 Business, 24 Premium economy but only 187 economy seats.

Now compare that with EK into Birmingham, who operate 2 class B77Ws in 40 business class but a massive 382 in economy.To make it pay.

Honestly yes.

Think of it more in terms of how much less demand do you see our of Birmingham than Manchester, given that they are not massively disparate in terms of population or economies.

Manchester already have SQ flights to Singapore and the US and presumably are selling enough seats to make it viable.

Do you think that Manchester is so much more "premium" than Birmingham that there are not enough people who can afford to travel business to the US such as to sell 40 seats each way daily.

This is before you even consider that from Manchester Virgin are already selling 31 daily business class seats to the US between JFK & ATL and Aer Lingus is already offer 30 daily. This is before you even consider Orlando flights, seasonals, etc.

Obviously BHX and MAN both see leakage to LHR as MAN also has regular flights to LHR for transfers on a lot of London routes.

Proportionately I see a lot more premium leakage to LHR from Brum however, due to the lack of premium options even when there where US flights here, I see the problem as more a lack of premium supply rather than demand.

Also you've got to consider the economics of 5th freedoms, a proportion of the demand (maybe most of if) comes at either end for the utlimate destination and the intermediadiary stop is not a factor.

Futhermore most of the seats are still sold in econony which is where Middle Eastern carriers are doing so well. Passengers may not all want a business seat I would not expect Emirates or Qatar to start cutting meals on board, free soft and alcholic beverages, in seat entertainment, free checked luggage, etc. Not every one can afford (or sees value in spending their money on) a business class seat but there is a limit to the distances people are willing to travel with a Ryanair standard basic product.

I'd just like to correct myself here. Demand in the intermediary stop is a factor for 5th freedoms, but for transit passengers stopping for 2 hours in Birmingham Airport is not going to be materially different than 2 hours at MAN or LHR.

What moving that transit passenger from LHR does do is free up a premium non-stop seat from SIN-LHR of which supply is limited due to slot allocations to be sold to another passenger, whilst simulatneously opening up a new location to be served 100% on SQ metal, and taking a flight sale from VS.

I feel Newark would probably work best as SQ have codeshares there with JetBlue but are not currently providing any stops via Europe. In this case however it appears that the passenger would be displaced from either LAX or SFO where they would have made a connection to JetBlue or Alaska connection across the US.

TBH transit through a BHX 5th freedom would probably be a better experience as there is no need to transit at LAX, recheck bags, potentially miss your connection etc. Plus 100% of your journey would be on in an SQ cabin.

In addition there is already a A* community there and there were regular users on the United flights which used to sell out the 16 seat business class cabin they had as far as I remember.

 

[Nethercote2019]

Honestly yes.

Think of it more in terms of how much less demand do you see our of Birmingham than Manchester, given that they are not massively disparate in terms of population or economies.

Manchester already have SQ flights to Singapore and the US and presumably are selling enough seats to make it viable.

Do you think that Manchester is so much more "premium" than Birmingham that there are not enough people who can afford to travel business to the US such as to sell 40 seats each way daily.

This is before you even consider that from Manchester Virgin are already selling 31 daily business class seats to the US between JFK & ATL and Aer Lingus is already offer 30 daily. This is before you even consider Orlando flights, seasonals, etc.

Obviously BHX and MAN both see leakage to LHR as MAN also has regular flights to LHR for transfers on a lot of London routes.

Proportionately I see a lot more premium leakage to LHR from Brum however, due to the lack of premium options even when there where US flights here, I see the problem as more a lack of premium supply rather than demand.

Also you've got to consider the economics of 5th freedoms, a proportion of the demand (maybe most of if) comes at either end for the utlimate destination and the intermediadiary stop is not a factor.

Futhermore most of the seats are still sold in econony which is where Middle Eastern carriers are doing so well. Passengers may not all want a business seat I would not expect Emirates or Qatar to start cutting meals on board, free soft and alcholic beverages, in seat entertainment, free checked luggage, etc. Not every one can afford (or sees value in spending their money on) a business class seat but there is a limit to the distances people are willing to travel with a Ryanair standard basic product.

At the moment the cost of economy seats on EK particularly are very expensive, I’ve looked recently for flights to Ozz & are double the price of 2 years ago

 

[Timberwolf]

Do you think that Manchester is so much more "premium" than Birmingham that there are not enough people who can afford to travel business to the US such as to sell 40 seats each way daily.

It doesn't matter what I think its what thr airlines think.

If it was as good as you say, they would be operating out of BHX already but they are not ??

 

[TM3]

It doesn't matter what I think its what thr airlines think.

If it was as good as you say, they would be operating out of BHX already but they are not ??

We'll I've given a really detailed justificiation of why I think it would work.

You haven't really answered my question as to why Birmingham should be seen as less premium than Manchester. Maybe others think that because it is an opinion that is often furnished recklessly on forums.

It doesn't matter what I think its what thr airlines think.

If it was as good as you say, they would be operating out of BHX already but they are not ??

As a yardstick, imagine any existining airline could operate that route. Which is the most premium airline you think could operate it before they became too premium to make it work?

 

[Timberwolf]

We'll I've given a really detailed justificiation of why I think it would work.

You haven't really answered my question as to why Birmingham should be seen as less premium than Manchester. Maybe others think that because it is an opinion that is often furnished recklessly on forums.

Because our premium passengers are leaked both north to Manchester and South to Heathrow .

Manchester premium passengers don't have another close alternative direct to many long haul services.

MAN passengers have twice as far to get to an alternative EDI or LHR.

Mr Keehoe former BHX CEO covered this very topic on an open forum he held that I attended some yrs ago.

Saying premium long haul airlines will collect their front end passengers from their houses and whisk them from Birmingham area by chaffeur driven cars to either Manchester or Heathrow.

He said obviously they wont do the same from Manchester very often due much long distances, and that was why BHX was at a big disadvantage on many long haul routes.

His words not mine.

We'll I've given a really detailed justificiation of why I think it would work.

You haven't really answered my question as to why Birmingham should be seen as less premium than Manchester. Maybe others think that because it is an opinion that is often furnished recklessly on forums.

 

[laviation]

The suggestion of SIN-BHX-JFK, imho, is redundant for a multitude of reasons

• Daily SIN-EWR and SIN-JFK already exist
• SIN-FRA-JFK works for a couple of reasons, one being that they can offer their excellent First Class product to New York (the A350ULRs do not have First), this is supported by the fact that FRA is a massive *A hub in itself as well as the business connections between the three cities helping to fill the cabins up front (& up top..)
• SIN-MAN-IAH only exists as SIN-IAH is too small of a market to justify the long flight - MAN-IAH offers a not-insignificant top-up. This is not the case for SIN-NYC
• BHX-NYC as stated before is simply not a big enough market to offer a top-up worth the hassle of the stop

IF BHX can ever woo over SQ, it will be a routing such as SIN-BHX-DUB or alike.

 

[TM3]

It doesn't matter what I think its what thr airlines think.

If it was as good as you say, they would be operating out of BHX already but they are not ??

If you think SQ are too premium BHX imagine any existining airline could operate that route. Which is the most premium airline you think could operate it before they became too premium to make it work?

Because our premium passengers are leaked both north to Manchester and South to Heathrow .

Manchester premium passengers don't have another close alternative direct to many long haul services.

MAN passengers have twice as far to get to an alternative EDI or LHR.

Mr Keehoe former BHX CEO covered this very topic on an open forum he held that I attended some yrs ago.

Saying premium long haul airlines will collect their front end passengers from their houses and whisk them from Birmingham area by chaffeur driven cars to either Manchester or Heathrow.

He said obviously they wont do the same from Manchester very often due much long distances, and that was why BHX was at a big disadvantage on many long haul routes.

His words not mine.

I'm happy to take Paul Kehoe on if you want as he is the guy who lost our only existing US flight because he didn't understand how to service premium demand from BHX.

Actually you can't get a all in chauffeur driven car to LHR with a business class ticket from Birmingham to LHR or MAN because the distances offered don't reach here.

I agree this is a successful strategy for Emirates though and it would probably help a carrier trying to offer US flights from BHX to offer that. Getting to LHR is difficult and expensive through if you don't have a car.

MAN do lose a lot of (long haul) flights to the US as passengers can get on a short domestic transfer to LHR. However these numbers do get registered on a lot of origin and destination databases that are used to measure demand, where as anyone who drives from Brum to LHR gets registered on a database than indicates demand from LHR. This is is obvioulsy going to skew a lot of airline analysts figures, becasue as I say there is no real reason why there should be significantly less demand on any route out of BHX than MAN.

 

[David Cartwright]

At the moment the cost of economy seats on EK particularly are very expensive, I’ve looked recently for flights to Ozz & are double the price of 2 years ago

I live in Sydney , but fly regularly to the UK . I would love to fly to my “ local “ airport BHX , but find the airfares with EK very restrictive , in fact they are no longer an option . Comparing EK to LHR v BHX , the fares generally to LHR are up to $800 cheaper .I‘m not sure of fares from BHX and can only comment on fares ex SYD, but EK is very expensive .

 

[gulftraveller]

This is is obvioulsy going to skew a lot of airline analysts figures, becasue as I say there is no real reason why there should be significantly less demand on any route out of BHX than MAN.

You are not comparing like with like. Predictions for passenger numbers at BHX for 2024 are around 13 million, at MAN around 30 million. Clearly there is a difference in demand, doubtless because of the draw to LHR in the Birmingham catchment.

 

[TM3]

You are not comparing like with like. Predictions for passenger numbers at BHX for 2024 are around 13 million, at MAN around 30 million. Clearly there is a difference in demand, doubtless because of the draw to LHR in the Birmingham catchment.

This isn't quite what I meant. There are 7 daily flights to LHR with around 150 PAX per time (1,050 each way per day). A significant amount of this will be west bound transatlantic connections, which where MAN loses share to LHR on US routes. Eastbound routes are mostly served just as well by the carriers already serving; Emirates, Qatar, Cathay, SQ, etc.

Both MAN and BHX see leakage to LHR but at MAN it's quantified in the stats they are already recording so it's somewhere within that 700,000 PAX movements per year.

There are no flights between BHX and LHR so any leakage to London is not visible as it all happens by road and rail. When you are talking about direct flights to the US though at BHX it's 100% leakage as no flights are available. Every single passenger in the BHX cachement area who wants a direct flight to the US is travelling outside the area.

I agree that there is a significant amount of leakage to LHR and to a lesser extent MAN but services from those airlines benefit in increased numbers.

If you want an airline to commit to US services from BHX then Virgin, IAG/BA are probably not the ones as they expect to pick up the traffic anyway. This is part of why SQ would be a better provider, as in providing a link to the US they would only be growing their traffic rather than moving it as is the case with the incumbents.

 

[laviation]

If you want an airline to commit to US services from BHX then Virgin, IAG/BA are probably not the ones as they expect to pick up the traffic anyway. This is part of why SQ would be a better provider, as in providing a link to the US they would only be growing their traffic rather than moving it as is the case with the incumbents.

SIN-BHX-USA just isn’t going to happen, sorry.

And, if it did, wouldn’t that dilute their existing operations from LHR, MAN, LGW, the same as BA and Virgin would?

The only carrier that is realistically going to do XXX-BHX-USA is Biman Bangladesh, and even then, they don’t like the UK regulations and will just be a transit stop.

 

[Nethercote2019]

SIN-BHX-USA just isn’t going to happen, sorry.

And, if it did, wouldn’t that dilute their existing operations from LHR, MAN, LGW, the same as BA and Virgin would?

The only carrier that is realistically going to do XXX-BHX-USA is Biman Bangladesh, and even then, they don’t like the UK regulations and will just be a transit stop.

I think you can rule Biman out too as I remember they already announced they would operate this route to US via BHX & I think a special transit area was built for this operation. AT the time the boss of Biman was very pro Birmingham & the last ever DC-10 flights did come …. But it all came to nothing in the end

 

[Timberwolf]

I think you can rule Biman out too as I remember they already announced they would operate this route to US via BHX & I think a special transit area was built for this operation. AT the time the boss of Biman was very pro Birmingham & the last ever DC-10 flights did come …. But it all came to nothing in the end

I believe the boss of Biman at the time was from Birmingham.One of the reasons we had the DC-10 pleasure flts it was claimed.
All changed when they got a new boss.

 

[TM3]

SIN-BHX-USA just isn’t going to happen, sorry.

And, if it did, wouldn’t that dilute their existing operations from LHR, MAN, LGW, the same as BA and Virgin would?

The only carrier that is realistically going to do XXX-BHX-USA is Biman Bangladesh, and even then, they don’t like the UK regulations and will just be a transit stop.

HOU is the only destination SQ fly to the US, I wouldn't expect them to fly that, otherwise I don't see dilution as an issue, they can only increase their sales at the expense of the incumbent.

At Brum they would have their pick and could pick Newark or JKF, both of which sold before.

Biman are obviously a joke carrier without any appeal outside of Bangladesh. The reason none of these routes work when they are tried is we always get these oddball carriers with tired onboard products and no onward connections.

Also, not sure why you read this as a prediction, I'm just saying it makes good business sense.

 

[laviation]

HOU is the only destination SQ fly to the US, I wouldn't expect them to fly that, otherwise I don't see dilution as an issue, they can only increase their sales at the expense of the incumbent.

At Brum they would have their pick and could pick Newark or JKF, both of which sold before.mn

In case you missed it, these are the reasons SQ is not doing BHX-USA any time soon..

• Daily SIN-EWR and SIN-JFK already exist
• SIN-FRA-JFK works for a couple of reasons, one being that they can offer their excellent First Class product to New York (the A350ULRs do not have First), this is supported by the fact that FRA is a massive *A hub in itself as well as the business connections between the three cities helping to fill the cabins up front (& up top..)
• SIN-MAN-IAH only exists as SIN-IAH is too small of a market to justify the long flight - MAN-IAH offers a not-insignificant top-up. This is not the case for SIN-NYC
• BHX-NYC as stated before is simply not a big enough market to offer a top-up worth the hassle of the stop

And, as for this:

Biman are obviously a joke carrier without any appeal outside of Bangladesh. The reason none of these routes work when they are tried is we always get these oddball carriers with tired onboard products and no onward connections.

Also, not sure why you read this as a prediction, I'm just saying it makes good business sense.

This is absurd. The DAC-XXX-USA flights would be what they are; Bangladeshi diaspora / Bangladesh-domiciled pax.

And no, it doesnt make good business sense as I have pointed out