Birmingham: New Route Development & Rumours

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Actually a very very good point. It does make you wonder if all those applauding BHX should not be slightly cautious that history could very well, repeat itself.

One thing years of following the goings on at BHX has taught me is that a positive is usually followed by a negative (or in some cases it's because of one). Oslo returns but we lose Stockholm, Cologne returns but we lose Berlin, the Monarch expansion only happened because of the demise of BMIbaby etc. It's probably led to me becoming a little bit cynical but I do try to remain positive when possible 🙄

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

The big problem here, as mentioned before is that the airport doesn't seem to have found the ammunition to become more competitive, and to at least make an effort. Like they would have done in the early noughties. In the early noughties you had various services to Toronto, now we are left with just one. Even if that's due to the market dying out it doesn't stop the same service from other airports performing well.

They seem to be more bothered about the press response/impressing the press more than actually doing what is realistically best for the airport. Biman & the Chinese charter flights to name a few. OK, the latter look to be certainly happening but the former was a gaffe that I'm not sure they'll ever want to come back from considering their efforts recently. I wonder if they are actually as dedicated to the airlines as the airlines are to the airport? They should have fought to keep the US Airways service. They should have fought to get the Biman service up and running. They should have fought to keep Airblue going if they could, and so on. This is the fourth year that Air Transat are doing a seasonal weekly service. If they are going to stagnate they should at least be looking at bringing in another Canadian airliner which is unlikely to do the same.

The thing about the Asian flights is that there is without question a big market for them. The airport would often be packed when PIA 747 flights would arrive back at the airport. They aren't capitalising on them anymore. Of course PIA don't operate the 747 into Europe anymore but no reason why they can't do a couple more weekly flights. Providing that the LHE flights did well when Airblue provided them doing that via ISB or direct (which is certainly possible now and should have been anyway) PIA should look on capitalising on that. I think the reason PIA aren't performing as well as they could have is because people aren't being given enough incentive to fly from BHX. If they did put up flights to KHI or LHE I think they'll be able to gather more passengers who would typically drive 80/100 miles down the road to MAN/LHR to fly to those routes direct or even via ISB. Nothing wrong with taking a few risks.

But all that would be harder to secure than the European flights for which there are still a lot of under-served markets. Madrid in particular - that service should have been in place at least a decade ago. Same goes with various others across Europe. Why this hasn't been done yet is anyone's guess. If it's down to the fact they haven't yet got a good airline on board you've got to ask, why? Why are BHX not getting these vital services which should be in place, and should have been a long while ago? I do think part of this is down to the landing fees which are higher than other airports and this is clearly giving airlines more incentive to go 80 miles down the road to MAN instead, even if BHX may have a bigger market or equally as big.

But for all we know, they aren't nearly as bothered as we are. Maybe they are comfortable with their current position? It may be OK for them now but in the future it probably won't be. It's not like there's not much opportunity available. Luckily I have a direct hotline to Paul so I could easily send him all this but I've not really explained it well at all... :crazy: But that's what I think of the current situation anyway.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

But for all we know, they aren't nearly as bothered as we are. Maybe they are comfortable with their current position?

Maybe BHX are playing a political game? One that won't work?

'Look at our airport. A huge city and conurbation with tonnes of manufacturing, yet only 9.5 million passengers. This is because of APD/London/no HS2/etc*' (*delete as appropriate).

What it doesn't realise that, if that is the game they are playing, the myriad of new routes around the UK, particularly the sheer amount of long haul gain at EDI and MAN, that argument looks a bit moot.

Obviously, nothing to suggest that is the case, but, certainly one to consider, as Paul Kehoe isn't exactly one to shy away from trying to prove a point.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

As posted on the viewing area thread I had a chat with an interesting gentlemen this morning, these are a couple of things he mentioned, there is nothing official at all just rumour so make of it what you will.

Apparently an internal newsletter has suggested that Emirates intentions at BHX are to have three daily services with the lunchtime operated by an A380. If true my opinion is that it's probably a long term strategy which will be implemented as and when over the coming years.

He said Air India are in the planning process to go daily but no date has been set yet, he didn't seem to think an extension to Toronto was going to happen.

Also apparently Air India and Emirates both objected to the proposed arrival of Biman saying it could affect their expansion plans, after this happened Biman disappeared off the radar. If true, and it's a big if, then it appears rather than Biman playing BHX it could well have been BHX playing Biman.

As I said there's nothing official, just what the chap told me this morning 🙂

 

[Brummiegem]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Interesting that you mention EK in that way.
This may only be idle chatter,but whilst waiting to go through security a few Saturdays ago,the captain and first officer were talking amongst themselves when they noticed the queue behind them was growing and undoubtedly a number of members of staff were getting impatient.His comment to all in earshot was,and I quote,"You think this is bad now just wait until the A380s start next year."
Apparently there are around 30 members of crew on one of them beasts so anyone stuck behind them at staff-gate might need to take something to occupy themselves,either that or use the old T2 staff-gate,or just just get into work earlier 😆
Anyway whether this is true regarding the A380 coming to BHX in my mind is secondary to the possibility of 1 or 2 airlines becoming a dominant force @ BHX.This will do nothing for the customers choice and may actually keep prices high which is not what we want.
MAN has all 3 MEBs operating plus Saudi has also now joined in and prices are generally cheaper than from BHX,although there are always exceptions.
I guess I'd rather have just 1 or 2 long-haul carriers dominating than none at all,but that situation may not be the best for all people!!!

 

[thunderchild]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Also apparently Air India and Emirates both objected to the proposed arrival of Biman saying it could affect their expansion plans, after this happened Biman disappeared off the radar. If true, and it's a big if, then it appears rather than Biman playing BHX it could well have been BHX playing Biman.

I wouldn't be surprised by this; after all EK scared Gulf Air off. Is this common practice? I don't think it's good to have airlines dictating the competition and while Biman was no major loss I'd hate for this to be one of the things holding off Qatar or Etihad.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Interesting.

It's always a dilemma when you have a dominant carrier operating a route successfully, if Qatar, for instance, did come in I've no doubt EK would have to drop their prices to compete (at least initially) so you could have a situation where both end up slashing prices so much their yields totally collapse. There is also Air India in the mix now, it was said that when Qatar announced BHX the schedule was to be split with three of the flights timed specifically to connect with the likes of DEL, BOM and ATQ. That said I agree with Brummiegem, BHX should be able to sustain one more Middle Eastern carrier, I think the biggest hindrance we've had is the turf wars going on at MAN, with neither wanting to concede, flooding the market with seats, a market that they include BHX in, when Qatar announced expansion a couple of years ago they said 'to serve passengers from The North and The Midlands'.

I wouldn't be surprised by this; after all EK scared Gulf Air off. Is this common practice?

To be honest I didn't think much about it when he said it but walking home it occurred that maybe there could be some truth in it, if expansion has been promised for some time but nothing has happened yet then maybe BHX decided to try and force their hand. I wondered would an airline like Emirates really be scared of the likes of Biman but if they do get a lot of connecting traffic to Dhaka then maybe they want to keep it for themselves?

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

As posted on the viewing area thread I had a chat with an interesting gentlemen this morning, these are a couple of things he mentioned, there is nothing official at all just rumour so make of it what you will.

Apparently an internal newsletter has suggested that Emirates intentions at BHX are to have three daily services with the lunchtime operated by an A380. If true my opinion is that it's probably a long term strategy which will be implemented as and when over the coming years.

I'd have thought that would be inevitable in the long term anyway, if we're looking at the future. They do need to sustain a service with 3-class aircraft though and I'm not sure they are doing that yet.

He said Air India are in the planning process to go daily but no date has been set yet, he didn't seem to think an extension to Toronto was going to happen.

Again, I'd have thought this would happen anyway.

Also apparently Air India and Emirates both objected to the proposed arrival of Biman saying it could affect their expansion plans, after this happened Biman disappeared off the radar. If true, and it's a big if, then it appears rather than Biman playing BHX it could well have been BHX playing Biman.

As I said there's nothing official, just what the chap told me this morning 🙂

I'm not so sure how Biman would affect their expansion plans? Biman were mainly looking at tapping into the US market and giving BHX passengers a new option for a trip to the US.

Of course this is all rumour/unofficial at the moment but I think we have quite established that neither sides were as committed as they should have been.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Interesting.

It's always a dilemma when you have a dominant carrier operating a route successfully, if Qatar, for instance, did come in I've no doubt EK would have to drop their prices to compete (at least initially) so you could have a situation where both end up slashing prices so much their yields totally collapse. There is also Air India in the mix now, it was said that when Qatar announced BHX the schedule was to be split with three of the flights timed specifically to connect with the likes of DEL, BOM and ATQ. That said I agree with Brummiegem, BHX should be able to sustain one more Middle Eastern carrier, I think the biggest hindrance we've had is the turf wars going on at MAN, with neither wanting to concede, flooding the market with seats, a market that they include BHX in, when Qatar announced expansion a couple of years ago they said 'to serve passengers from The North and The Midlands'.

Qatar were hoping to tap into the Indian subcontinent market but they can't really do that now to some extent now that Air India are about. As for all that's going on at MAN, I don't think people wouldn't use a QR/EY service from BHX.

 

[Seasider]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I can't see why a "global" airline like Emirates, and to a lesser extent Air India, should be frightened of losing traffic to Biman. I would have thought that they would only lose the connecting traffic to Dhaka, which wouln't be that much.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I agree, I really couldn't see a 2x weekly Biman service being a threat to the might of Emirates.


Interesting comment from China Southern on BHX Twitter,

@Welcome2Brum @ChinaSouthernKR @bhx_official Thank you! Looking forward to serving Birmingham.

Reading to much into it???????

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Lots of positive tweets from locals and businesses welcoming China Southern, I think they seem quite overwhelmed. I thought I'd be cheeky and use my first ever tweet to directley ask if there will be permanent flights. As expected they were very non committal but rather than the usual "At the moment we are concentrating on the charter flights but there may in the future...blah blah blah" they replied "Those decisions are made at head office." When I said fingers crossed the reply was "Same here 😉" Was the wink an indication that there maybe something more to come? I seriously hope so.

Me: A very warm welcome to Birmingham. Will there be permanent flights in the future?

CS: Thnx Ray, to be honest I am not sure, these kind of desicions are made at our Headoffice.

Me: Thnx for the speedy reply. Fingers crossed there will be.

CS: Same here 😉

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

It seems to have gone down well at least. I hope to go down one of these days to get a picture or even better video.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I thought I'd be cheeky and use my first ever tweet to directley ask if there will be permanent flights. As expected they were very non committal but rather than the usual "At the moment we are concentrating on the charter flights but there may in the future...blah blah blah" they replied "Those decisions are made at head office." When I said fingers crossed the reply was "Same here 😉" Was the wink an indication that there maybe something more to come? I seriously hope so.

As much as a new flight can bring an excitable frenzy, I wouldn't read too much into the tweets.

Lets not forget, Beijing is not an international hub for China Southern, and no offence to BHX, I very much doubt China Southern would change that with a route to a secondary city, ahead of the key cities like London, Paris, Frankfurt and so on. Lets also remember, the current UK-China bilateral allows for no more flights, whatsoever at the moment. Air China are applying to get extra flights to MAN, but are currently hitting many brick walls.

Also, when asking about route openings and closures, its pointless asking social media. They often either don't know themselves, or, are bound by confidentiality clauses. Lets not forget KLM at Liverpool. On one day, someone asked if the LPL-AMS route was being pulled. The response was 'absolutely not'. Less than 24 hours later, the route was officially pulled.

 

[dazzler]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I thought I'd be cheeky and use my first ever tweet to directley ask if there will be permanent flights. As expected they were very non committal but rather than the usual "At the moment we are concentrating on the charter flights but there may in the future...blah blah blah" they replied "Those decisions are made at head office." When I said fingers crossed the reply was "Same here 😉" Was the wink an indication that there maybe something more to come? I seriously hope so.

As much as a new flight can bring an excitable frenzy, I wouldn't read too much into the tweets.

Lets not forget, Beijing is not an international hub for China Southern, and no offence to BHX, I very much doubt China Southern would change that with a route to a secondary city, ahead of the key cities like London, Paris, Frankfurt and so on. Lets also remember, the current UK-China bilateral allows for no more flights, whatsoever at the moment. Air China are applying to get extra flights to MAN, but are currently hitting many brick walls.

Also, when asking about route openings and closures, its pointless asking social media. They often either don't know themselves, or, are bound by confidentiality clauses. Lets not forget KLM at Liverpool. On one day, someone asked if the LPL-AMS route was being pulled. The response was 'absolutely not'. Less than 24 hours later, the route was officially pulled.

Well I'm going to stay upbeat, say well done to all involved and hope that these flights lead to a permanent service. It was great seeing "Beijing China Southern CZ 3002" on the boards today.

The extension was built to attract business to the airport and complement our modest long-haul offering, and although we had a hoped for an increase in new services this is a start.

Social media is usually linked to marketing and customer service rather than route development but any good communication from a new airline is welcome and positive. Birmingham & Liverpool are entirely different cities and airport operations.

UK/China bilateral agreement won’t last long in its current form as it allows Germany and Holland to almost double number of links to China and is holding back international trade.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Birmingham & Liverpool are entirely different cities and airport operations

I was not even remotely comparing the BHX/LPL markets. My comments were aimed at airline social media, and that asking them on facebook, twitter or whatever else is a fruitless task, as, like I say, are either unlikely to know, or wouldn't tell you anyway.

UK/China bilateral agreement won’t last long in its current form

I bloody hope it changes soon, as at the moment, we have at least 1 airline that is so desperate to serve a regional UK city, it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds chasing a bilateral addendum, so, the fact the UK government is still saying no, but then publicly supporting more China links actually makes me quite angry!

I would like to add that I think its great BHX has seen these charters, but, apart from another season next year, I can't help but wonder what all the fuss is about. MAN has had charters to China in the past, lots of them. I didn't see them whooping and hollering from the rooftops as if its a scheduled flight. Just this week MAN has seen 2 charters to Los Angeles and Kansas City, but they just came and went without fanfare, because they were accepted for what they were, charter flights for a specific purpose. Edinburgh has one off charters to Japan, I don't even recall one single press release about it as they just got on with it.

It all boils down to the fact that yet again, BHX likes to talk big, but it seems putting their money where their mouth is, seems much harder.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

No fanfare at the other airport because it's not like it adds something huge to the airport, unlike at BHX - considering the somewhat lack of viable long haul services, any new long haul service would be welcome.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Did anyone catch the report on Midlands Today? Mr Kehoe was stood there grinning like a Cheshire cat as he was waiting to be introduced but the smile was soon wiped off his face when the interviewer opened with "Six flights to China over the summer, as far as long haul is concerned you've not really cracked it have you?" 😆 We had the usual about this being a market tester and the market being overwhelmingly good then the compulsory garbage about there being too much competition for BHX. The reporter seemed totally underwhelmed and Mr Kehoe appeared to be struggling to answer why, after spending £40 million, there is nothing to show for it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Given that a lot of aviation aficionados seem to regard their local airport in the same way that football fans support their football club, it's not a million miles from reality to suggest that an airport CEO might be looked upon in the same way as a football club manager, or chief coach or whatever appellation they boast these days.

As managers are the ones whose heads inevitably roll when football teams disappointment I wonder how Mr Kehoe is regarded in the Birmingham area by the news media, business and those interested in civil aviation.

In so many ways BHX is a success story, and certainly when compared with many regional airports around the country, but I do get the impression that there is a feeling that it could be doing even better.

To maintain the football analogy, Mr Kehoe popped briefly in charge of Bristol Airport before being poached by a bigger club up the M 5. He wasn't at BRS long enough to make any sort of mark, good or bad.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

On the face of it I quite like Paul Kehoe but the public image of him may not tell the whole story. BHX has definitely come a long way in recent times but after many years of chronic underinvestment I'd say it as a lot of catching up to do. Without going into too much detail there are gaping holes in the European network, lots of under capacity IT routes and some long haul hubs that BHX should be able to link to successfully. In the airports defence some of these are relatively new markets, the emerging Chinese market for example, and it will take time to prove a genuine demand exists but there are key European destinations that have been un-served for many years along with the IT destinations of Florida etc.

What frustrates me though is Mr Kehoe's ability talk big but yet have nothing to back it up, and he appears not to like being challenged about the developments (or lack of) at BHX. We had the trip to Chicago to try and reinstate the link, it ended up with many headlines about twinning of cities, twinning of airports, the signing of trade agreements, quotes from the mayors etc. but ultimately no service. I don't want to accuse BHX of possible coercion tactics but it appears that after failing to get the link secured themselves they went running to anyone who'd listen to try and put some pressure on. A link to China could be going the same way, lots of headlines about how local businesses desperately need a service but although the China Southern charters are great for the spotters, in three weeks they'll be nothing more than a memory.

BHX talks a very good game but it now needs to start backing up those words with actions, to stay on the football theme I follow the Ron Atkinson principle, "Don't tell me, show me!"