CWL passenger total in 2020 and intermediate years

[TheLocalYokel]

It's a bit quiet at the moment so I thought I'd ask members to speculate on the likely annual passenger totals at CWL at the end of this calendar year and at the end of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 calendar years.

It's really a bit of fun as we can't know what events might interpose themselves in the next few years that could have either a positive effect or negative effect on the numbers. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to get an idea of members' feelings on this.

If it's any help I've listed below the CAA annual passenger stats for CWL going back nearly 60 years - in millions and part millions.

1961 0.069
1962 0.075
1963 0.093
1964 0.104
1965 0.112
1966 0.139
1967 0.136
1968 0.130
1969 0.116
1970 0.171
1971 0.213
1972 0.239
1973 0.284
1974 0.230
1975 0.209
1976 0.192
1977 0.196
1978 0.234
1979 0.254
1980 0.261
1981 0.294
1982 0.360
1983 0.383
1984 0.429
1985 0.387
1986 0.487
1987 0.632
1988 0.619
1989 0.696
1990 0.593
1991 0.513
1992 0.653
1993 0.764
1994 0.990
1995 1.025
1996 1.001
1997 1.124
1998 1.230
1999 1.303
2000 1.500
2001 1.524
2002 1.416
2003 1.900
2004 1.873
2005 1.765
2006 1.993
2007 2.094
2008 1.979
2009 1.625
2010 1.398
2011 1.208
2012 1.013
2013 1.057
2014 1.020
2015 1.158
2016 1.344
2017 1.434 (12-month running total at end of August)

 

[Jerry]

2018 with Qatar arriving a returned destination from TCX increased frequencies from Balkan Holidays and Vueling as well as more potentially to come from Flybe then 1.6 million should be achievable.
For 2019 and 2020 there is potential for a lot of expansion with the mystery airline to North America both to Florida and NYC and continued expansion from Vueling and Flybe in increased frequencies from Vueling and the potential for extra aircraft from Flybe and there could be potential for more from TCX as well. By 2020 I do believe that the airport could be around the 1.85 million passengers mark.

 

[Aviador]

Here is my guess...

2018 1.650
2019 1.700
2020 1.620

My figures are based on the arrival of Qatar, the economic impact of interest rate rising and the uncertainty of Brexit. I'd like to think Qatar do well from Cardiff as many South West users will choose them as opposed to heading to user alternative services from the two big London airports or Birmingham. The European and Domestic situation is somewhat less clear and that's why I've downward trended beyond 2019.

 

[Jerry]

With Brexit I believe there will be a transitional period and if it happens then it'll not be till at least 2021. It's practically the only UK government proposal that the EU has been positive about!
So if there is going to be a downward trend then i believe it won't start till 2021 and after.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm looking at around 1.455 million at the end of 2017.

I think that 2018 will finish around 1.6 million for the reasons Jerry has outlined. This is based on what looks to be in the pipeline over the next 15 months airline-wise and route-wise.

Obviously 2019 and 2020 are far more difficult to project as we don't know what might happen with airlines or routes, or what effect Brexit and perhaps other influences might bring to bear on the aviation scene generally.

Assuming that not too much negativity occurs in matters outside CWL's control I'm saying that by 2020 the passenger numbers will be around 2 million with 2019 perhaps being roughly a halfway house between the 2018 and 2020 figures. I think that 2 million is entirely feasible by 2020 as long as the aviation scene in the UK does not suffer significant setbacks.

 

[Jerry]

I think the unknown for CWL will be Ryanair. They so far haven't added any new routes for next year but if they decide over the next couple of years to expand their routes then the figure for 2020 may well be over 2 million by quite a margin if they have those sorts of plans for CWL at all.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If Ryanair set up even a Bournemouth-type operation then CWL would be over 2 mppa. Brexit, APD devolution and Ryanair getting itself back together could all play a part in any decision.

I remember a couple of months ago a new CWL poster was saying that he thought that Ryanair would be the 737 operator that the line maintenance people at CWL were expecting next year. I haven't read any more posts from that poster so we don't know the strength of his/her suggestion. Perhaps he/she was right at the time but it might be that Ryanair's subsequent problems have put that on hold.