Its the same old chesnut,that factories and housesvwere built before roads were put in and many cases nothing done to up grade them. My view is put the roads and good ones before any building is done,but that's too easy and the other thing is greed.
 
I was in the city centre early on Friday afternoon when I came across the end of a demonstration and march protesting against the expansion of Bristol Airport.

I engaged in conversation with one of the climate change activists and we had a civilised chat for about 15 minutes. He was a young man probably in his mid-20s and was polite and even likeable to speak with. He was very much like the elderly woman I chatted with last summer when the Green Party was holding a demonstration against the BRS expansion on the Harbourside. Both were really difficult to dislike as people.

A summary of his views as espoused to me during our conversation is set out below.

He accepts that some climate change people are hypocrites including himself on some matters, but the important thing is the underlying message (addressing my point about leading climate change activists including the senior Green politician Caroline Lucas and actress Emma Thompson flying when it suits them).

China, India and other countries might be planning to build hundreds of new airports but Bristol Airport, although small in comparison, is the local airport and therefore a legitimate target. If they can get Bristol expansion stopped they can move on to other airports. They are encouraged by the situation at Stansted where a change of local authority has reversed a previous decision to allow that airport to expand.

He had no real answer to the point about flights being displaced to other airports if Bristol is not allowed to expand, with gaseous emission-causing car journeys also increased by locals travelling to other airports.

The same lack of response was forthcoming to the point about a stagnated Bristol Airport impacting adversely on the local economy whilst helping the economies of airports from which the displaced flights would operate; apart from a remark that such airports would be targeted next.

Cars caught up in queues caused by the demonstration and march could always switch off their engines.

Schoolchildren don’t demonstrate in their own time at weekends as walking out of school adds more to the protest element of their actions.

The 2% of world CO2 emissions caused by aviation is a ‘huge amount’.

He said he wasn’t aware that mobile phones are a significant contributor of CO2 emissions and didn’t know why the climate change people were not holding protest marches and rallies objecting to the use of mobile phones. (I suggested that many of their members are young, and mobile phones are a way of life for most with many being addicted to their use, so as hypocrites they are hardly likely to object to something they enjoy doing even it does add to gaseous emissions).

At one stage he asked me if I was a local councillor. I smiled but retorted that I have an inherent mistrust of politicians of all political colours. It turned out that was something we have in common.

We parted on good terms and he told me it made a change to discuss climate change with someone of an opposing view who did not shout and bawl and lose their temper. As I said, a likeable young man but perhaps somewhat ingenuous, but then again that’s just my opinion.
 
“China, India and other countries might be planning to build hundreds of new airports but Bristol Airport, although small in comparison, is the local airport and therefore a legitimate target. If they can get Bristol expansion stopped they can move on to other airports. They are encouraged by the situation at Stansted where a change of local authority has reversed a previous decision to allow that airport to expand”

So by that token then HMRC should target all the individuals first for as much tax as possible then move onto the big companies that don't pay their full share last, ok seems fair!!

“The 2% of world CO2 emissions caused by aviation is a huge amount”

Of that 2% how much does the UK produce, then of that how much of that does Bristol Airport produce just from its flights? Thought you would target some of the big producers first.
 
So by that token then HMRC should target all the individuals first for as much tax as possible then move onto the big companies that don't pay their full share last, ok seems fair!!


Of that 2% how much does the UK produce, then of that how much of that does Bristol Airport produce just from its flights? Thought you would target some of the big producers first.
It's difficult to estabish the exact percentages of gaseous emissions whether locally, within the UK or worldwide because there seems to be different methodology used by various organisations. Vested interests also come into it with climate change activists highlighting certain aspects and the aviation industry others.

I read one article that says that the USA, EU and China combined produce 55% of the world's aviation CO2 emissions.

When I suggested to the activist with whom I spoke on Friday that curbing BRS's expansion would lead to some flights that would have been added being displaced to other airports and thus creating the same amount of emissions into the atmosphere he retorted that they would target those airports next.

I think that most of the activists in this country believe they are doing something worthwhile, but in the worldwide scheme of things anything the UK does in isolation would be insignificant if major world industrial powers carry on going their own way. It's not as if we are a world-leading power any more that can influence other nations - if we ever were; if any country is.
 

The deputy director of CBI South West and the the South West regional chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses have written a joint open letter to the leader of North Somerset Council stressing how vital it is for the region's economy for Bristol Airport to be allowed to expand.
 
The Labour leadership candidates were in Bristol at the weekend and the local rag asked Sir Keir Starmer a series of questions. He was asked if he supported the expansion of Bristol Airport and replied,

I don’t know the case for and against it. My strong view on all transport is that we need a national plan and the climate implications have to be one of the main priorities in that.

He was then asked if the expansion was not compatible with Labour's net zero targets, should it be dropped? His reply to that was,

I’d need to look at the case for that. I don’t know the precise tests we’ve set out, but certainly the impact on the climate has to be a major consideration.

He's in danger of getting a sore backside. Fences can be uncomfortable places to sit on.




 
Projections of percentage share of passenger numbers and flights carried by easyJet and Ryanair at BRS 2018-2026.

One of numerous pieces of data forming part of the NSC officers' report on BRS expansion plans is the above. It's based on BRS management forecasts at July 2018.

Percentage of passenger numbers (easyJet first)

2018 49 17
2019 48 17
2020 47 17
2021 46 17
2022 46 17
2023 47 17
2024 46 18
2025 46 18
2026 45 19

Percentage of flights (easyJet first)

2018 40 14
2019 40 14
2020 39 14
2021 39 15
2022 40 15
2023 39 15
2024 39 15
2025 39 16
2026 39 16

The first thing to say is that these forecasts were made before anyone had any inkling of the MAX situation or the fortunes of flybmi and Thomas Cook.

The second thing to say is that I don't undestand how the easyJet figures have been arrived at. They have been carrying more than 50% of BRS's passenger numbers for a while now and I would suspect they operate more than 50% of the flights at the airport.

That said, the interesting thing to me is the underlying trend with easyJet seeing a fall-off of its share of flights and passenger numbers into the first part of the 2020s and Ryanair seeing a gain. Whether this will now occur following the various events that have transpired since the airport management made these forecasts and whether they would ever occur no-one can know, but I wonder what prompted the management to believe that the share of the two main airlines would alter in this way.
 
You would have expected easyJets to rise in the light of the purchase of Thomas cooks slots
 
You would have expected easyJets to rise in the light of the purchase of Thomas cooks slots
These projections were made in July 2018 and submitted as part of the planning application but even so they do raise questions.
 
I see he has reverted to type. Some time ago when Liam Fox was thought in some quarters to be the ogre preventing APD being devolved to Wales I wrote on F4A that prior to becoming a minister he was an opponent of BRS expansion. It was only when he became a minister that he suddenly became a supporter in the sense that he appeared to believe that APD devolution would be harmful to BRS. Being a cynic, especially when it comes to politicians, I wondered why he was bothered given his earlier opposition to the expansion of the airport. If APD devolution did impact negatively on BRS then surely the good MP ought to be pleased as it would bring about his previously stated desired effect.

On the APD point where the West Country Tory clan has been blamed by many in Wales for resistance to APD devolution, it's worth pointing out that most senior Conservatives in the region say little about BRS expansion, at least publicly. The most vocal political supporters of BRS in the area are the Labour MP for Bristol South and Bristol's elected mayor who is also a Labour politician.

Bristol Airport and associated industries is one of the largest employment sectors in the tiny North Somerset unitary authority. If the owners of the airport are prevented from growing the business naturally they will look at other ways of maximising profitability. The traditional method with any business in such circumstances is to cut costs through a reduction in the labour force.

A big complaint in some groups and individuals about BRS is its overseas ownership where profits flow to Canada. They conveniently ignore the hundreds of millions of pounds of overseas investment that has ploughed a lot of money into the region including the North Somerset unitary authority area via the airport owners. When, say, a Japanese car company sets up a factory in the UK and in so doing brings in overseas investment, often primed with UK government money (no public money involved with BRS overseas ownership), where do people think the profits go? To the local community? No-one moans about overseas ownership then - just the opposite with everyone putting out the welcome mat for the jobs it brings and the indirect benefit to the local economy.
 

The local rag has quickly got this story. They highlight anti-airport stories yet ignored the open letter of support from the CBI and FSB. They even find space for including the anti-airport views of a local pop group.

 
Further to Liam Fox's letter opposing expansion of Bristol Airport, he was saying exactly the same thing in 2006 as the below open letter shows. At the time BRS was looking to expand its infrastructure from its then 5.7 mppa. Partly because of the recession the planning application for the major expansion, much of which has since taken place, was not determined until 2011 when the local authority planning committee gave the go-ahead.

Liam Fox is the Conservatve MP for North Somerset in whose constituency Bristol Airport lies and John Penrose is the Conservative MP for the neighbouring Weston-super-Mare constituency.


Letter to consituents from Dr Liam Fox MP and John Penrose MP opposing the expansion of BIA
House of Commons
London
SW1A OAA
020 7219 4198
20 October, 2006

Dear Constituent,

The Expansion of Bristol Airport

Please forgive the impersonal nature of this letter, but I thought all those constituents, who have written to me about this issue, would like to see as soon as possible a copy of the joint letter which John Penrose and I have sent to the local press and North Somerset Councillors.

We appreciate that there is a national debate taking place about the environmental impact of plane travel, which should frame Britain’s overall approach to airport expansion in all areas of the country, not just North Somerset. The question of how to travel sustainably without banning people from moving anywhere, ever, for business or pleasure is extremely important, but it needs to be debated as part of a national policy framework rather than for Bristol alone. More locally, however, we think that there are several major issues which have not been addressed in the case of Bristol International Airport (BIA).

Firstly, there is a bold assertion in the Government’s White Paper that the expansion of regional airports is good for regional economies. When we investigated this area further in Parliament, it transpired that there had not been a single study done into any particular regional airport to assess what might happen to the regional economy. Instead, an extrapolation was made from national figures. When we consider whether there should be major changes to existing airports which would, of course, have environmental costs, we should have sufficient information at our fingertips to conduct a proper and through audit. We are concerned that this detailed information has not been made in the case of BIA.

The second concerns the local infrastructure and the ability to deal with increased passenger numbers. BIA has very poor road access and no major rail access. There is already considerable congestion through villages like Barrow Gurney, Cleeve, Claverham, Yatton, Congresbury, Banwelland Backwell. While central government seems keen that areas such as our own should bear the brunt of increased congestion, there is no government money made available to alleviate the problems that increased passenger traffic would inevitably produce.

Our third concern is aircraft noise. We appreciate that Bristol international Airport is making great efforts to reduce noise levels by improving aircraft flight paths and charging airlines more for using older, noisier planes. But existing Government noise regulations are based on measuring average levels over a period of weeks, rather than capping maximum allowable levels when a plane is directly overhead. This means that much of the impact on residents in villages such as Congresbury and Yatton is understated, and we are concerned that the problem will only get worse as the number of large planes flying from Bristol increases in future.

Due to these reservations, we do not believe that BIA has made a good enough case for expansion.

Yours sincerely

Dr Liam Fox and John Penrose


By 2016 we saw a different Dr Fox when he opposed APD devolution to Wales saying, “The South West is set to lose out massively if this tax on flying is devolved to Wales. The toxic combination of less consumer choice, job losses and reduced economic activity {my bold} is simply not acceptable and I am today calling on the Government to halt this measure.”

(scroll half way down page to read Dr Fox's comments)

Yet he said in 2006 and is now saying again that BRS should not expand and there is no evidence that the airport adds much to the region's economy. Furthermore, if such APD devolution did impact negatively on BRS it would bring about his desire to curb BRS expansion that he was advocating strongly in 2006 and which he now repeats. It's a job to take seriously anyone who changes his opinion from objection to support to objection in 14 years.

I listened to his interview on Radio Bristol this morning. Unfortunately, as is often the case with local radio, the interviewer was not assertive, not a business or transport expert and gave him an easy run. His main objection was surface connectivity and he did accept that if somehow that could be hugely improved his objections to BRS expansion would be lessened. It's difficult to see how the sort of surface connectivity that would would satisfy him could be achieved realistically and I suspect he knows that.

He repeated his assertion that most business travellers from/to the West Country use LHR and that the local airport adds little to the region's economy. He wasn't asked how this would play out if neither LHR nor BRS can expand. He also made the contradictory statement that the government is encouraging air travel to be moved from London to the regions. We also know of their vow to improve regional connectivity to enhance regional economies yet Dr Fox seems to believe that BRS is the odd one out in that it is not an engine to grow the West's economy.

When asked he all but discounted climate change as an issue saying that aviation contributed only a small amount of carbon emissions. He did praise BRS as an airport, said he had used it and will do so again. He jiust doesn't want it to grow any more - but he was saying that in 2006.
 
The day is fast approaching when the North Somerset Unitary Authority will hear the airport’s planning application to permit its passenger cap to rise from the current 10 mppa to 12 mppa together with associated infrastructure expansion.

The council planning committee will begin its deliberations at 6pm next Monday (10th) at Weston-super-Mare Town Hall. The meeting will be streamed live on YouTube.

The committee can do one of three things next Monday:

1. Approve the application in which case, owing to the scale of the development within the Green Belt, the application must be referred to the Secretary of State who can either allow the council to go ahead with its decision or ‘call in’ the decision for a public enquiry.

2. Defer the application for further information and come back to a later meeting of the planning committee.

3. Refuse the application. Because this would be against the council’s own officers’ recommendation council policy dictates that the matter would have to go back to a subsequent meeting of the planning committee for the decision to be ratified. If the refusal decision is then ratified the airport has six months in which to lodge an appeal with the Planning Inspectorate which would almost certainly involve a public enquiry.

So whatever happens next Monday is unlikely to be final.

I heard the local ITV News headlines at teatime today (didn't have the time to watch the entire programme) in which it was said that local residents will take legal action if the planning committee approves the application. There was an attempt at a Judicial Review by airport opponents following the council's decison to approve the previous major planning application in 2011 which got nowhere.
 
What do you think they'll do? Just kick the can down the up to the UK government to decide?
 
What do you think they'll do? Just kick the can down the up to the UK government to decide?
My gut feeling is that the planning committee will reject the application despite their own planning officers' recommendations to approve, although they might want more information and defer their decision on Monday.

Last May's local elections overturned a previous huge Conservative majority on the council. The council is now a so-called 'Rainbow council' with Independents, Lib-Dems and Greens together holding 30 of the 50 seats. The Conservatives have 13 and Labour the rest. Prior to last May the Conservatives held 36 of the 50 seats.

The planning committee consists of 27 councillors: 10 Independent, 7 Conservative, 5 Lib-Dem, 3 Labour and 2 Green. It might come down to how most of the Independents and Labour vote. I imagine the Conservatives would be broadly in support with the Lib-Dems and Greens against.

If by whatever route the process finds its way to a public enquiry one might think that planning inspectors from the Planning Inspectorate would apply a broadly similar approach to that of the local professional planning officers. It's not certain of course and the secretary of state might well have the final say.

I'm certainly no expert on planning and I might be well off beam with how things pan out.
 
Here is something that’s has happened at Stansted Airports application for passenger in crease in numbers ,taken off the pprune site :

A High Court judge has dismissed an appeal by Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) to have the airport’s planning application to serve more passengers determined by Central Government.

The application, which would see the airport increase the number of passengers it can serve to 43 million per year without increasing the number of flights already permitted, was first put forward in February 2018. In line with Government policy encouraging airports to make best use of their existing runways, the application was submitted for local consideration to Uttlesford District Council (UDC). The Secretary of State for Transport subsequently confirmed it did not qualify as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP), and that UDC was the right body to determine the application.The application was initially approved by UDC’s Planning Committee in November 2018. However, following the local elections in May 2019, the new administration voted to return the application to its Planning Committee for further consideration. In January this year, members of the committee ignored the advice of its own officers and legal experts and refused the application, citing concerns around air quality, noise and climate change.

As well as dismissing SSE’s claims that this decision should have been taken by Government ministers, the High Court ruling also raises serious questions over the way UDC handled the climate change matters relating to the application.

The airport is currently considering its next steps following this decision.
 
Here is something that’s has happened at Stansted Airports application for passenger in crease in numbers ,taken off the pprune site :

A High Court judge has dismissed an appeal by Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) to have the airport’s planning application to serve more passengers determined by Central Government.

The application, which would see the airport increase the number of passengers it can serve to 43 million per year without increasing the number of flights already permitted, was first put forward in February 2018. In line with Government policy encouraging airports to make best use of their existing runways, the application was submitted for local consideration to Uttlesford District Council (UDC). The Secretary of State for Transport subsequently confirmed it did not qualify as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP), and that UDC was the right body to determine the application.The application was initially approved by UDC’s Planning Committee in November 2018. However, following the local elections in May 2019, the new administration voted to return the application to its Planning Committee for further consideration. In January this year, members of the committee ignored the advice of its own officers and legal experts and refused the application, citing concerns around air quality, noise and climate change.

As well as dismissing SSE’s claims that this decision should have been taken by Government ministers, the High Court ruling also raises serious questions over the way UDC handled the climate change matters relating to the application.

The airport is currently considering its next steps following this decision.
It seems odd that SSE would want the sec of state to decide the Stansted application given that the local authority had rejected it, unless SSE's appeal to the High Court was submitted before the new local authority overturned the previous authority's decision to approve that application.

Ten years ago when BRS was submitting an even larger planning application opponents wanted that 'called in' by the sec of state but the incumbent at the time (I think it was Eric Pickles) decided that government policy then was to let local elected representatives decide. The then North Somerset Council approved that application in 2011, and subsequently much of the major work contained in that application has been carried out. There was an attempt to get the matter re-visited via a Judicial Review but that was quickly kicked out of court.

This time whichever pathway the application follows there will be some sec of state involvement as that senior government minister has to give permission because part of the application relates to land in the Green Belt. Some of the airport site is already within a Green Belt Inset.
 
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With so many people expected at the airport planning meeting tonight North somerset have set aside a extra room for people to see it on screen. Also if you go to the north somerset web site they are streaming the whole meeting on line via u tube.I think that would be the better way as there will be no chance of getting in to the town hall.I believe it starts at six this evening,you might be able to clarify time on North somerset web site.
 

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