2018 Predictions etc

[Marko1]

So 2018 is now upon us and we get to look forward to several new routes starting very soon . These include Gothenburg , Genoa, Seville , Preveza , Hurghada, Punta Cana and the first summer schedule for Stockholm , Athens and Cologne. We also get to see increases in frequencies to a number of holiday hotspots notably Greece , Bulgaria , Egypt , Turkey and Croatia this summer .

Do we have anything else to look forward to though ....?

Any predictions?

 

[Jerry]

Thinking of TUI long haul wise and i wonder if they could launch La Romana for summer 2019?
With Easyjet if Stockolm goes well then maybe they'll look at Oslo? Sun wise i'm not sure as BRS has most of it covered and i think it's looking at very niche destinations, a possiblity could be maybe Bari or Brindisi the southern toe area of Italy and maybe Thessaloniki in Greece?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

So 2018 is now upon us and we get to look forward to several new routes starting very soon . These include Gothenburg , Genoa, Seville , Preveza , Hurghada, Punta Cana and the first summer schedule for Stockholm , Athens and Cologne. We also get to see increases in frequencies to a number of holiday hotspots notably Greece , Bulgaria , Egypt , Turkey and Croatia this summer .

Do we have anything else to look forward to though ....?

Any predictions?

Thinking of TUI long haul wise and i wonder if they could launch La Romana for summer 2019?
With Easyjet if Stockolm goes well then maybe they'll look at Oslo? Sun wise i'm not sure as BRS has most of it covered and i think it's looking at very niche destinations, a possiblity could be maybe Bari or Brindisi the southern toe area of Italy and maybe Thessaloniki in Greece?

Having spoken to a couple of senior figures at BRS in the past couple of months, one at the recent consultation drop-in I attended, they seem to be anticipating around 8.7 mppa in 2018. Looking at the additional based easyJet, TUI and TCX aircraft this coming summer I reckon that (which of course includes the new routes mentioned) would help to take the annual total pretty close to 8.7 million.

If so, there doesn't seem much scope for anything dramatic to be announced.

I note Marko's post this evening in the Ryanair thread about a possible six based aircraft this year. If that turned out to be the case it would either mean more routes/increased frequencies on existing routes (or a combination of both), or those routes operated by non-based aircraft switched to based aircraft which would throw the already announced timetable into some disarray.

easyJet does operate to Thessaloniki from London and Manchester but whether they would consider a BRS route I have no idea. If they did it might be just once weekly in summer. TOM/TUI operated a weekly summer Thessaloniki for many years before axing it after the 2010 season. It was brought back for summers 2015 and 2016 but axed again in summer 2017 and doesn't appear for summer 2018. So far as easyJet and sun routes are concerned I'm amazed that they dropped Marrakech. Loads were in the 90s% each month summer and winter so it can only be assumed the yield was not up to it or there were better yields on other routes.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair thread about a possible six based aircraft this year.

Maybe time for some Severnside cooperation like Alun Cairns is after and get BRS to send that aircraft to CWL!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Maybe time for some Severnside cooperation like Alun Cairns is after and get BRS to send that aircraft to CWL!

I think it would be two. I believe that BRS has four based in summer. It used to be five but more flights are operated by aircraft from other bases these days. It helps spread the load slightly as they are out of sync with BRS's based aircraft flows across the board.

 

[BRSregular]

Who ŵas the forum poster who seemed to be very 'in the know' when he posted this time last year all the exciting prospects for the airport in 2017? Everyone appeared to take him seriously which made me think he knew something, but he was very vague. And then nothing 'major' happened all year.

Personally I think it will be a year similar to last year... a couple of new routes here and there but I would rather take increased rotations on routes such as Rome, Paris etc. Maybe BA could surprise us?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I wouldn't be surprised to see something new from BMI this year.
EZY will likely continue to expand.
I have a feeling TUI and Thomas Cook will possibly not expand on anything new until the other new routes have bedded in, likely some frequency expansion on current offerings though. From TUI possibly a new long haul route Boa Vista on 787 to complete a full weeks schedule.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Who ŵas the forum poster who seemed to be very 'in the know' when he posted this time last year all the exciting prospects for the airport in 2017? Everyone appeared to take him seriously which made me think he knew something, but he was very vague. And then nothing 'major' happened all year.

Personally I think it will be a year similar to last year... a couple of new routes here and there but I would rather take increased rotations on routes such as Rome, Paris etc. Maybe BA could surprise us?

This is the thread for 2017 predictions. There is nothing in there along the lines you suggest. Perhaps it was in another BRS thread.

http://www.forums4airports.com/threads/4035/

 

[BRSregular]

Wouldn't know where to begin to look for it. Think the poster's name began with a 'C'. He got my hopes up as he seemed to know more than he was letting on!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Wouldn't know where to begin to look for it. Think the poster's name began with a 'C'. He got my hopes up as he seemed to know more than he was letting on!

You don't mean conns757 do you? If so, I'll have a look back through the 'archives' tomorrow to see what I can come up with.

 

[BRSregular]

That could be it.

 

[forest1979]

From TUI possibly a new long haul route Boa Vista on 787 to complete a full weeks schedule.

I think BV is already on the 787 from Bristol albeit at the end of the year..
I think most people have it covered in terms of predictions. I would like to think TUI would consider another LH Caribbean route, maybe Barbados or Jamaica as the obvious ones and base a 787 out of bristol. Maybe this will be more of a possibility when they have taken full delivery of the their 787 fleet. Obviously what hasn’t been covered is will BRS get a full state carrier to a big hub east or west? A long shot probably now but it would be nice to think it’s still realisticly in the planning..
in my wish list (just for fun)....
Turkish Istanbul, united or delta New York, Norwegian anywhere and maybe eurowings Stuttgart?? Go on then, ethiad to Abu Dhabi!

 

[Marko1]

As for my predictions easyJet have yet to complete their summer schedule and I would expect to see no 16 at some point with probably an aim to boost frequencies rather than new destinations. I believe Ryanair would base extra aircraft to largely replace those flights operating into brs from overseas bases.

As for tui I think the summer 19 will be released in April and I think the aim should be to get a permanent 787 base with possibly Montego Bay and Barbados being added with maybe a short haul flight or two to make up the week. I don't expect many new destinations but given recent developments with them I expect more frequencies . They have yet to really expand to turkey and Tunisia is yet to reappear. I would like tcx to replace the a320 with a a321 and perhaps launch a Orlando service ?

The big aim would be now Turkish or etihad plus getting Oslo and Zurich on the departure board.

Exciting times maybe ??

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Who ŵas the forum poster who seemed to be very 'in the know' when he posted this time last year all the exciting prospects for the airport in 2017? Everyone appeared to take him seriously which made me think he knew something, but he was very vague. And then nothing 'major' happened all year.

Personally I think it will be a year similar to last year... a couple of new routes here and there but I would rather take increased rotations on routes such as Rome, Paris etc. Maybe BA could surprise us?

These might be the posts to which you refer, this one posted by conns757 in the BRS Route News thread on 23 December 2016.

MV

Sorry for not being active on this board for a while.

I told u before you can access me directly anytime if you need any information.

The airport went through the 7.5 mill pax today as i predicted over a year ago.

You have not captured all the growth for 2017 in your assumptions as we will push through 8 million easily next year.

The new airline will commence new scheduled services as highlighted before but there has been delays which are not in the public domain.

There are so many exciting developments in the pipeline but you should be patient . Lots of growth is being delivered from the encumber carriers and will take good old LulsgAte Bottom to the next level.

All the best . BRS

Then in answer to natural speculation from F4A members he posted again five days later.

Not yet and no further guidance due confidentiality .

Also expect to see 3-4 charter carriers not yet announced for S17.

I will update mid Jan as I expect further clarity .

Lastly , another possible scheduled operator showed interest recently and if it comes off it could be a spotters dream !!

I'm happy to give further snippets but please keep views on here and not on pprune as I try to find balance by giving info but not drawing interest from competitors !!

If it gets on pprune i won't be so forthcoming !

The scheduled airline turned out to be BACityFlyer of course and I think the 'exciting developments in the pipeline' probably included additional based units from TOM, TCX and easyJet amongst other things. He did say that patience was required.

The 'spotters dream' airline never came to fruition and it's intriguing to wonder which airline it was.

in fairness, conns757 has been very helpful with hints to this website down the years which have been spot on. I've known him for many years and anything he says about BRS should not be ignored, although as always with airport/airline negotiations things can always fall apart at the last moment after a deal seemed imminent.

 

[Jerry]

Would be interesting to know if some of the stuff Conns mentioned for 2018 that didn't happen are possible for 2019?

 

[Marko1]

We must be due a visit by conns soon shouldn't we ?

 

[forest1979]

Indeed... come on conns, time to tease us with possibilities for this year...

 

[forest1979]

Maybe the spotters dream was Qatar which we all now know didn't happen?

 

[andrewgreen]

Maybe the spotters dream was Qatar which we all now know didn't happen?

You beat me to it , I’m sure it was Qatar

 

[TheLocalYokel]

We must be due a visit by conns soon shouldn't we ?

Indeed... come on conns, time to tease us with possibilities for this year...

conns757 visits the site from time to time - the last time I looked his latest visit was just before Christmas. I suppose any posting visit will depend on what is in the wind and whether it's commercially or otherwise possible for him to drop a hint or two.

Maybe the spotters dream was Qatar which we all now know didn't happen?

You beat me to it , I’m sure it was Qatar

Qatar would seem the most likely and the timing would have been right in terms of their announcing the CWL service about four months later.

However, the Qatar UK chief had announced publicly a year before that that they were looking at a South West route so it might be thought that any talks would have commenced some time before conns' post of December 2016 - he says 'recently' showed interest. If I had to guess I would be more inclined to say Etihad or Turkish.

My reason is that I believe that Qatar had been ruled out by December 2016 and that Etihad or Turkish might have been approached by the airport. conns doesn't say the 'spotters dream' airline contacted them, merely that it had shown 'interest'. I've certainly not been told or given a hint by anyone at the airport that it was Etihad or Turkish though - it's merely my conjecture.

If it was Etihad or Turkish either the negotiations fell through or the time is not right at the moment. Anything like this, including NYC, might have to wait until the final outcome of Brexit is known.

Speaking of 2018 predictions generally, that could also include what might be announced later in this year for the following year. By then we should have sight of the final new master plan which will have a bearing on how things proceed not only in the next two decades and more but in the next few years. I'm still surprised that a runway extension has been ruled out although I can see the airport's reasoning if not entirely agreeing with it. This could have a bearing on routes such as the ME and NYC.