CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[ChurchFenton]

A reduction on LHR, in September, which is traditionally the routes strongest month, seems odd.

Especially when people were saying how full the flights were when they flew on them......strange to say they least.....

It was still the second busiest month ever for BA on the route, beaten only by September 2016. The general trend throughout this year has been upwards.

 

[KARFA]

A reduction on LHR, in September, which is traditionally the routes strongest month, seems odd.

Indeed. A bit disappointing as September is the best month and I thought we may get a record passenger number, possibly over 17000. Overall still up this year compared to 2016 though.

 

[White Heather]

Did we have any cancellations in September that might account for the slight dip in passenger numbers during September?

 

[Finger66]

They may also have thrown is a few A320s our way in sep 16 so that might have increased capacity. That said it still doesnt explain the drop. I wouldnt be overly concerned in one months figures but if a drop becomes the same every month then thats different. But as has been said its a general upward trend and thats the main thing

 

[KARFA]

Did we have any cancellations in September that might account for the slight dip in passenger numbers during September?

No I don't think so. Number of flights September 2016 was 162 and based on the source I use number of flights September 2017 was 166. I can't explain it really.

They may also have thrown is a few A320s our way in sep 16 so that might have increased capacity. That said it still doesnt explain the drop. I wouldnt be overly concerned in one months figures but if a drop becomes the same every month then thats different. But as has been said its a general upward trend and thats the main thing

Definitely no A320s that I can see in September. As you note even if there had been that would be relevant for a drop in load factor not passenger numbers. The route is pretty much exclusively A319. An A320 makes an appearance maybe less than half a dozen times a year - I have never been on one and I am nearing 200 flight on this route.

Overall trend is one of increase but not quite as much as in previous years. 2014 passenger numbers were up 11.46% from 2013, 2015 up 12.45% over 2014, and 2016 up 8% over 2015. This year looks like maybe 3-6% depending on how the numbers for the remaining three months play out.

 

[Finger66]

It is important to put percentage increases into numbers. An 11% increase back in 2014 may only have represented an increase in pax from 10 a fight to 12 a flight. I talk hyperthetical numbers now. But if you talk about a 5% increase this year that could be an extra 5 pax per flight on a flight that previously carried 100 now carrying 105. So its nigh impossible to still expect double digit percentage growth but reflect on the fact 5% is quite healthy on the load factor now carried. It is continuously upwards

 

[lbaspotter]

British Airways passenger numbers on the London Heathrow - Leeds/Bradford shuttle route look as follows.

View attachment 6602

 

[Bigman]

So the figures have actually reduced in 3 of the last 5 months when compared to 2016. Not very encouraging.

 

[Finger66]

So the figures have actually reduced in 3 of the last 5 months when compared to 2016. Not very encouraging.

Yes but they have only reduced in 3 out of the first 9 months of this year. May was only by 99 so very much like for like. Only needs 12,800 per month in Oct, Nov and Dec to match last year so not much of a worry from where I am sat

 

[KARFA]

It is important to put percentage increases into numbers. An 11% increase back in 2014 may only have represented an increase in pax from 10 a fight to 12 a flight. I talk hyperthetical numbers now. But if you talk about a 5% increase this year that could be an extra 5 pax per flight on a flight that previously carried 100 now carrying 105. So its nigh impossible to still expect double digit percentage growth but reflect on the fact 5% is quite healthy on the load factor now carried. It is continuously upwards

I have quoted all passenger numbers at length recently in the BA specific if you need to understand what is happening. Also you will note that load factors I also quoted are not really growing much at all now, and that should be more concerning.

 

[KARFA]

Yes but they have only reduced in 3 out of the first 9 months of this year. May was only by 99 so very much like for like. Only needs 12,800 per month in Oct, Nov and Dec to match last year so not much of a worry from where I am sat

12,800 per month operated at 20 rotations a week gives a load factor in the 50-60% range. If it stays there and doesn’t grow expect BA to either reduce rotations permanently or cancel the route.

EDIT: Merely matching last year when this is supposed to be a growing route is not good enough. The route is not at the level where it is secure, and none of BA’s other domestic routes operate at these loads.

 

[Finger66]

Where has all this negativity come from. I only said 12800 to match last year. Barring total weather disasters that will be surpassed and that will mean the route has grown - again. It almost seems you are willing for BA to fail. And please don't play the "I am just being realistic" card either.

 

[stewief1]

A drop in numbers may be symptomatic of the reduction in service standards and subsequent attrition of once loyal passengers - unfortunately these service standards are now incumbent within BA short haul and to some extent on long haul. A quick look at Skytrax reveals a lot, and along with my own personal experiences, it’s no wonder passengers are leaving in their droves! Not saying this is the case with the LBA route. I used to be a massive fan of BA and after my next long haul with them in Feb to Thailand, i’m done with them. Alex Cruz has a lot to answer for but I suspect it’s more about financial return than loyalty and satisfaction aka Ryanair

 

[KARFA]

Where has all this negativity come from. I only said 12800 to match last year. Barring total weather disasters that will be surpassed and that will mean the route has grown - again. It almost seems you are willing for BA to fail. And please don't play the "I am just being realistic" card either.

I can’t think of anyone less appropriate for you to suggest that.

 

[Finger66]

I can’t think of anyone less appropriate for you to suggest that.

Is that a reference to me or to you? Whichever way you need to explain yourself because that has gone way over my head!

 

[White Heather]

Is that a reference to me or to you? Whichever way you need to explain yourself because that has gone way over my head!

I think that the point Karfa is making is that he is a regular user of the BA route and has often reported in a very positive light with regard to his experiences, and the load factors. So he is the last person to will the BA operation to fail.
That said, there does seem to be a rather strange negativity all of a sudden due to the route not growing further. In my view, chief culprit for ensuring there is no further growth (of any significance) is BA themselves, due to the lack of a night stopper (thereby not connecting with many flights) and, their habit of cancelling flights which causes considerable inconvenience. And I am not referring to weather related, but to the tactical cancellations seen last winter and this coming winter. How can they expect to grow when they allow people to book worldwide flights and connections, and then write to them to advise their flight back to LBA has been cancelled, apparently for no good reason other than it suits BA to do so? Some of the cancelled flights would normally be the busiest of the day, so they make little sense. Customers remember such things!

 

[KARFA]

I think that the point Karfa is making is that he is a regular user of the BA route and has often reported in a very positive light with regard to his experiences, and the load factors. So he is the last person to will the BA operation to fail.
That said, there does seem to be a rather strange negativity all of a sudden due to the route not growing further. In my view, chief culprit for ensuring there is no further growth (of any significance) is BA themselves, due to the lack of a night stopper (thereby not connecting with many flights) and, their habit of cancelling flights which causes considerable inconvenience. And I am not referring to weather related, but to the tactical cancellations seen last winter and this coming winter. How can they expect to grow when they allow people to book worldwide flights and connections, and then write to them to advise their flight back to LBA has been cancelled, apparently for no good reason other than it suits BA to do so? Some of the cancelled flights would normally be the busiest of the day, so they make little sense. Customers remember such things!

I think you are right. I am coming around to thinking that a night stopper may be what is required to boot the loads up to be consistently >70%. I feel it may be a gamble though. If it becomes a night stopper and incurs all the extra costs (perhaps the new management may help with some of the costs?) and loads don’t improve it may become more pressing on BA’s mind about what to do.

I am surprised anyone could be in doubt about my desire for the route to succeed, but yes I am a little concerned that perhaps the growth as slowed a little this year - although it clearly looks like we are on for another record year. I feel LBA want this route to succeed, and god knows I am doing my best to add to passenger numbers, so I really hope numbers keep going up. The route celebrates the 5th anniversary this December and I will be on it that day - I look forward to being on it to celebrate the 10 year anniversary too.

Also I agree on the reductions we are seeing during Q1 2018, it really is a bit frustrating.

 

[Finger66]

Ok folks. Time for a truce. Fair comments from all concerned. Yes we all want this and many other routes to succeed. I have long since quoted the night stopper is the answer, albeit I fully understand the cost implications. I too have supported the route where I can, but clearly not to the level KARFA has. And indeed I have very recently been talked out of flying in favour of the train, so yes BA are their own worst enemies in some ways. I for one will be more than happy if they are around on LBA LHR in another 5 years time and if that equally generates strong debate and opinions then so be it. As I keep saying, it's only because we all care about LBA

 

[Coathanger16]

I don't usually look at the LBA thread much so forgive me for being ignorant, but how much would a night stopper help with connecting traffic?

The first flight currently gets into LHR for 10:35/45. With a minimum connection of 90 mins that would allow for an earliest onward departure of 12:15. BA have few destinations where the only departure is before then, so whilst yes adding a night stopper would help with some connections, how would it drastically improve things?

 

[KARFA]

I don't usually look at the LBA thread much so forgive me for being ignorant, but how much would a night stopper help with connecting traffic?

The first flight currently gets into LHR for 10:35/45. With a minimum connection of 90 mins that would allow for an earliest onward departure of 12:15. BA have few destinations where the only departure is before then, so whilst yes adding a night stopper would help with some connections, how would it drastically improve things?

MCT for a T5-T5 connection is 60mins. As you note the first connection you could book are departing at 1135 onwards, and personally I tend to try and have a little wiggle room on top of the 60minute minimum. Basically you have ruled out most of the departing long haul and short haul flights because we have such a late firsts arrival. T5 to T2/3/4 MCT is 90 mins so that’s even worse. It rules out connecting to many of the early TATL flights for example.

You can get around this by getting the late southbound the evening before and staying near LHR. I tend to do this a lot but most people wouldn’t want the extra cost and inconvenience.

I think LBA is the only domestic BA route without a nightstopper and therefore the only one without an arrival before 9am. Also KLM do exactly the same and have early arrivals bringing in passengers to AMS.