CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Severn]

Here we go again. My analysis of the January 2023 passenger stats

As usual we will start with the good and the first route that pops up is Cluj Napoca. In November Cluj only received a 60% load factor, however in January that rose to over 80%! Bucharest was once again a good performer. 4 routes averaged over a 90% load factor - Gran Canaria, Malaga, Riga and Tenerife. The ski routes performed well with average load factors between 80 and 90% on all 3 routes. Vilnius averaged 83%. I continue to sing my praises for Krakow which ranked 5th with 10,992 passengers and an average of 81% load

The less good performers will once again be mentioned by load but I will include passengers this time as well

Katowice (3,043 pax, 68.1%): I'm not too bothered given that with an A320 on all flights average loads would be close to 85%, but it could certainly be better.
Wroclaw (4,806 pax, 63.7% (@Sherburnflyer92) 209.5 seats/flight): There really isn't anything much to say about this apart from that I had hoped for better. Even with Wizz using an A320 the loads would still be only 72%.
Belfast City (8,291 pax, 60.0%): Flybe's last month on the route, hopefully the loads will improve slightly into February
Belfast Intl (2,553 pax, 55.8%): Oh dear...
Enontekio (259 pax, 45.7%): I really think that late January is a bit late for these flights.

Wizz Air Load Factors
For the first time I have a way of gathering load factor information for all Wizz Air routes for January. Do be aware that any route marked with a * has had the figures measured in a very crude fashion and may not be accurate and may not be until the March stats come out.

Route - pax load (load factor)

Bucharest - 209 (87.6%)
Cluj Napoca - 178 (84.1%)
Gdansk* - 156 (70.2%)
Katowice - 152 (68.1%)
Krakow* - 156 (65.6%)
Warsaw Chopin - 182 (77.2*)
Wroclaw* - 101 (43.8%)

Overall, not a bad quietest month of the year from LBA. Average loads fluctuate between routes, but between 70% and 90% seems to be the norm. Looking to be a bright year ahead from LBA!

Note: Average loads on some routes may have been bolstered by a new policy in how many flights there were which states that any cancellations at all are not included in how many flights there were.

Excellent work, thanks for taking the time to calculate these!

Regarding Wizz Air and load factors - KTW is the only Wizz Air base in Poland that has A320s and A321s based. The other four Polish Wizz Air bases (GDN, KRK, WAW, WRO) only have A321s based (mix of CEOs and NEOs) - so unfortunately there won't be any downsizing of aircraft when schedules change in the future.
CLJ is an A320 only base and OTP has a mix of A320 and A321s

 

[White Heather]

Excellent work, thanks for taking the time to calculate these!

Regarding Wizz Air and load factors - KTW is the only Wizz Air base in Poland that has A320s and A321s based. The other four Polish Wizz Air bases (GDN, KRK, WAW, WRO) only have A321s based (mix of CEOs and NEOs) - so unfortunately there won't be any downsizing of aircraft when schedules change in the future.
CLJ is an A320 only base and OTP has a mix of A320 and A321s

Yet recently we have had A321s operating some Cluj flights. How come if it's an A320 only base?

 

[Severn]

Yet recently we have had A321s operating some Cluj flights. How come if it's an A320 only base?

I should have made it clear, this is all based on the upcoming summer timetable.
Currently the CLJ base is 4x A320 and 2x A321 - hence why some LBA have been operated by A321s.
By peak summer the base is planned to be 7x A320, of course all subject to change.

 

[Starflyer]

I still can't understand why we have never had Tallinn

Unlike Latvia and to a slightly lesser extent Lithuania, there was never a huge migration flow from Estonia into the UK which is now into a second and third generation of VFR travel. The likes of Bradford, Rochdale and Mansfield all saw pretty significant migration flows from Latvia and Lithuania (as did the area which is now western Ukraine, around Lviv).

Estonia is a different structure of market today, and a smaller one at that - which you can see from the London traffic figures alone.

 

[Seasider]

Thanks to Ian on the BHX thread, Pax for Feb '23 are 193486, 3K less than Feb '19.

 

[White Heather]

Thanks to Ian on the BHX thread, Pax for Feb '23 are 193486, 3K less than Feb '19.

According to LBA it was 196,000 - which I reported in the last consultative meeting update in March. Either way, it's very encouraging.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Slightly belatedly here is my take on the CAA data for February:

View attachment 28210

View attachment 28211

 

[YorkshireLad]

My monthly roundup of CAA stats will not be happening for February

 

[Seasider]

With thanks once again to Ian on BHX thread, pax for March 2023 is 235958, still 4% less than 2019.
As the summer progresses, I think LBA will be matching figures for 2019.

 

[White Heather]

With thanks once again to Ian on BHX thread, pax for March 2023 is 235958, still 4% less than 2019.
As the summer progresses, I think LBA will be matching figures for 2019.

We had British Airways in 2019. Now, we dont. That's the main reason we are not at 2019 levels.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

We had British Airways in 2019. Now, we dont. That's the main reason we are not at 2019 levels.

But, LBA have gained Wizz Air, who weren't present in 2019. Without them, the difference would be significantly more than 4%.

 

[Stagman]

March 2023
Terminal Passengers 235,958
Aircraft Movements 2,421

Pre Covid
March 2019
Terminal Passengers 246,550
Aircraft Movements 2,385

Only 10k less passengers this month but seeing more aircraft movements.

 

[White Heather]

But, LBA have gained Wizz Air, who weren't present in 2019. Without them, the difference would be significantly more than 4%.

I know that. But had we still got BA, we would now be at least matching 2019 pax figures.

 

[YorkshireLad]

I'll look into where we have gained and lost passenger figures (eventually, I have a busy week ahead)

 

[Scottie Dog]

Here is my take on the CAA data for March 2023.

A comparison for March 2019-2023 can be found here:

Airport News - General airport statistics and CAA data release dates

I believe that the CAA counts passenger figures as where they were booked to/from, so diverted passengers will still be included in the original airports numbers. It may however, affect the aircraft movements for both the originals and diversion airports statistics. As Kevin has said, although...

forums4airports.com

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View attachment 28370

 

[ls27]

They are probably barking up the wrong tree

 

[LBA4EVER]

I expect from april onwards the CAA figures to be an upwards trend for the foreseeable future. Must admit though i expected march 2023 to be higher than 2019, im aware we dont have BA but we have wizz and increased frequency and new routes with other carriers.

 

[White Heather]

I expect from april onwards the CAA figures to be an upwards trend for the foreseeable future. Must admit though i expected march 2023 to be higher than 2019, im aware we dont have BA but we have wizz and increased frequency and new routes with other carriers.

We also had rather a lot of Flybe flights in 2019..also now gone.

 

[lbaspotter]

We also had rather a lot of Flybe flights in 2019..also now gone.

Yeap Flybe had Belfast City, Newquay & Dusseldorf. We also had Eastern Airways to Southampton and Jet2 to Amsterdam.

 

[Ian Gratton]

Anybody know why Jet2 stopped AMS, used that route a number of times and flights were always nearly full. ON some days they had 2 flights a day, did a few day trips for spotting at AMS