CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

Caa Passenger Statistics for October 2012

A total of 549,603 passengers used the airport during October that's +3.2% compared with the same month last year.

Rolling years passenger totals stand at 5,883,378, up 2.4% compared with the previous twelve months.

The rise in passenger numbers yet again achieved with a fall in atms (down 3.4%).

October is just about the best October on record, beating 2010 by about 60, though the final figure might vary a bit as these are of course provisional. They rarely do vary much if at all though.

2012 has been a consistent performer with percentage passenger rises every month except January in a range 0.3% to 3.9%. January was down 3.5%.

Positive figures for November and December would be excellent news as for several years the winter months have been generally in a declining state, as they have at many regional airports.

 

[Aviador]

The only problem with rising passengers and falling atms is the rise in passengers will eventually dry up without a rise in atms. That is unless more aircraft are upgraded to larger aircraft types such as the Easyjet 319 to 320's.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The only problem with rising passengers and falling atms is the rise in passengers will eventually dry up without a rise in atms. That is unless more aircraft are upgraded to larger aircraft types such as the Easyjet 319 to 320's.

Indeed, and is a point I've previously made regarding this phenomenon.

In 2006 just over 5.7 million passengers were handled from nearly 66,000 atms.

In the 12 months to the end of October this year nearly 5.9 million were handled from just under 51,000 atms.

So in 2006 the average load was 86 which has risen to 115 currently. A mixture of higher loads and larger aircraft is certainly an efficient way of conducting business, and no doubt keeps the bean counters very happy, but you are right when you point out that the limits of this practice are finite and there will come a time (almost certainly sooner rather than later) when atms will have to increase in numbers if passenger numbers are to continue rising.

 

[alphagolf]

Bristol Airport have published their own stats for November 2012:

Pax: 344,462
Up: 10.28%

ATM: 4,090
Up: 0.27%

YTD Pax: 5,539,440
Up: 3.00%

YTD ATM: 57,721
Down: 7.19%
I wasn't expecting that to be honest, double digit growth in pax and a small increase in Atm's too.

Figures from the Bristol Airport website.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

November 2012

I wasn't expecting such an increase either, alphagolf.

The CAA stats when published will no doubt vary slightly from the airport's own figures - they always seem to every month and are usually slightly higher.

If December is only flat 2012 should finish as the second best in the airport's history at over 5.9 mppa, second only to the 6.2 mppa of 2008, although 2007 would have been just in excess of 5.9 mppa too had the airport not suffered that temporary closure following the runway resurfacing problems in January that year.

November's figures mean that on average each day of the month saw 1,000 more passenger passing through than in November 2011.

I hope the airport hasn't made a mistake with the figures as a 10% rise in passenger numbers in November against a virtually unchanged atm figure is some going.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2012

CAA stats now out and, as usual, they vary slightly from the airport's own figures.

CAA say 346,876 passengers were handled in the month which is an increase of 10.8% on November 2011. Atms were up 5.3% (now there's a surprise!) with the rolling total standing at 5,917,170, an increase of 3.1% on a year ago.

This will be the third consecutive year that the airport has enjoyed small percentage gains in its passenger numbers. 6 mppa in 2013 is now a realistic target - only achieved once before: in 2008.

I'd forgotten that the half-term holiday this year intruded into November (it didn't in 2011) which helps to explain some of this rise in passenger numbers. Other though not all airports (in some cases surprising examples) also benefited.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats December 2012

Interesting set of stats which show that in December atms were down 36.5%, there were no passengers in the month but the percentage difference against December 2011 was 0%.

The rolling 12-month total was 5,576,501, down 3.3% on a year ago, which is nearly 400,000 down on the 12-month rolling total last month.

Either someone had a rather good lunch before applying themselves to the figures or the system for recording CAA stats is as flawed as I've increasingly come to believe.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA stats December 2012

Interesting set of stats which show that in December atms were down 36.5%, there were no passengers in the month but the percentage difference against December 2011 was 0%.

The rolling 12-month total was 5,576,501, down 3.3% on a year ago, which is nearly 400,000 down on the 12-month rolling total last month.

Either someone had a rather good lunch before applying themselves to the figures or the system for recording CAA stats is as flawed as I've increasingly come to believe.

I think a pub lunch maybe..........

Will have to wait til next week now I expect.........

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2012

Still no sign of meaningful CAA stats for the month but the airport has now published its own for the month.

They show that 338,085 passengers were handled in the month up 0.36% on the previous December. Atms were down 8.3%

The 12-month total is shown as 5,887,526, up 2.84% on a year ago. Atms for the 12 months were down 7.26%.

As usual the CAA stats, when published, will almost certainly vary slightly from the airport's stats. That being so, I expect the CAA version when published to show the annual total to be around 5.9 mppa.

A solid if unspectacular year, the third consecutive in annual passenger gains.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats December 2012

They've now got their act together and the results are as follows:

339,785 passengers were handled in the month, 0.1% down on December 2011. Atms were down 8.3%.

Rolling 12-month figure which is also the figure for the calendar year of 2012 is 5,916,286, up 2.6% on 2011.

A slightly disappointing end to the year which means that the only months showing passenger number decreases were the first and the last.

Nevertheless, 2012 is now confirmed as the second best ever for passenger numbers after the 6.229 mppa of 2008 and maintains the modest growth of both 2010 and 2011.

 

[alphagolf]

They've now got their act together and the results are as follows:

Actually they haven't, take a look at the Domestic stats, there are still two airports missing from Bristol's stats.

Belfast International
Guernsey

Probably in the region of another 19,000 pax combined between the two destinations.

Hopefully they will get it right next week.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Actually they haven't, take a look at the Domestic stats, there are still two airports missing from Bristol's stats.

Belfast International
Guernsey

Probably in the region of another 19,000 pax combined between the two destinations.

I'd noticed that but this has happened before with BFS where the BRS-BFS route stats don't appear in the provisional domestic tables where it's listed under Belfast (to Bristol) until BFS itself appears in the airports list.

I suspect the CAA knows the BRS-BFS monthly total and included it in the overall BRS total but, because the complete BFS stats are not yet in the public domain and in CAA statistical terms it's a 'Belfast route' in the same way, for example, that BRS-EDI is a 'Bristol route' for stats purposes, it doesn't appear in the domestic provisional total as yet.

On previous occasions when the BFS route stats did not appear when the BRS airports provisional monthly total was published the overall monthly figures for BRS were never amended when Table 02 2 - Summary of Activity at UK Airports - was published a month or two after the provisional list, with the total of monthly sched and monthly charter passengers combined always reaching the same total as that in the original provisional list, sometimes give or take perhaps 20 or 30.

I intended keeping an eye out to see if there are another 19,000 or so to be added as you are but I will be very surprised if that happens. If it does it will give a monthly percentage rise of around 5 or 6%.

As for GCI, that's been a dog's breakfast for much of the year with no passengers being shown some months even in the final monthly domestic tables published a month or two after the provisional ones.

That's one of the reasons why I don't have complete confidence in aviation stats and the fact that BRS's own monthly stats and those of the CAA are invariably different is another.

I thought at one time that the CAA figures - usually higher than BRS's own - included transit passengers but they don't. The CAA shows transit passengers broken down into sched and charter in Table 02 2 but they never form part of an airport's published passenger totals.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

[textarea]Passenger numbers grow for third year running at Bristol Airport

Passenger numbers at Bristol Airport have risen for the third successive year. The number of people passing through the terminal was up 2.8 per cent compared to the previous year, making Bristol the only airport in the UK’s top ten to see growth each year since the end of 2009.*

A total of 5.9 million passengers used Bristol Airport over the course of the year, including record monthly totals in June and July. In October, Bristol welcomed a new airline when bmi regional commenced a double-daily service to Aberdeen, with further flights to Frankfurt and Hamburg to follow from February. New routes included easyJet services to Copenhagen and Naples, and a three-times weekly Ryanair flight to Warsaw Modlin.

The rise in passenger numbers was achieved with fewer flights, with the total number of aircraft movements down by 7.3 per cent – a decrease of almost 5,000 flights as a result of airlines operating larger aircraft with high load factors.

Robert Sinclair, Chief Executive Officer at Bristol Airport, said:
“These figures are a very positive signal that the South West economy is moving in the right direction. The resurgence in business travel has been particularly strong with several airlines, including KLM and Brussels Airlines, adding capacity on routes to major European hub airports. We expect this growth to continue throughout 2013, with further route announcements in the pipeline.”

The first phase of development which will ultimately enable Bristol Airport to handle 10 million passengers per annum was completed in June when three new aircraft stands were opened by the then Transport Secretary, Justine Greening. Other improvements included the construction of an additional immigration facility and an expanded security search area, both aimed at increasing the efficiency of essential processes at peak times.

Work is currently underway on a new executive lounge, which will be 50 per cent larger than the existing facility and will offer hot food and different zones in which passengers can work or relax before boarding their flights.

*Based on Civil Aviation Authority airport statistics[/textarea]

Airport press release at http://www.bristolairport.co.uk/media-c ... ngers.aspx

The airport has shown consistent growth for over 40 years. Looking back at the CAA stats to 1968, only six years since then have seen annual passenger number falls against the previous year, viz, 1969, 1974, 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2009. Several of these years were at the time of previous recessions and 1974, as well as being in the middle of the mid-1970s recession, also suffered following the collapse of Court Line.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Just had a look at Mayfly for next week, the half term school holiday, and was surprised to see that there are noticeably fewer fights and seats available than in the corresponding week last year.

The week as a whole shows around 110,000 seats available compared with 115,000 in the same week last year, of which about 2,000 are Airbus corporate shuttle related, so 'public' seats are down by around 7,000.

In 2012 there was a total of 432 rotations in the week, whereas this year there are 428 of which 20 are Airbus corporate shuttle.

easyJet has 198 rotations next week compared with 204 in the corresponding week in 2012. Ryanair has 51 rotations, just two down on 2012.

Still waiting for January passenger stats of course, but February looks to be a challenge if a small rise is to be accomplished.

When I checked a week in the middle of January this year against the same week in 2012 the number of available seats was about the same though this year did include the Airbus corporate shuttle.

NB

I ignored the FR and EZY 'ghost flights' now shown at the end of Mayfly each day.

 

[superking]

when is the january ststs out.
will the airbus shuttle figures be included in them.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

when is the january ststs out.
will the airbus shuttle figures be included in them.

First batch of CAA provisional stats for January should have been published last Friday but they are sometimes delayed. I'm anticipating them some time today but not all airports are included in the first batch.

BRS own figures for January (they vary a bit from the CAA stats every month) show a drop of 1.65% in passenger numbers for January.

Perhaps not a surprise bearing in mind the airport was snow closed and lost at least 80 flights (cancelled or diverted) because of the bad weather.

The airport gives a more detailed breakdown of its figures than the CAA and it appears to me that they have included the shuttle flights in the movements total but haven't included the passengers, presumably because they don't use the terminal. They use the Bristol Flying Centre lounge on the south side of the airport.

Should become clearer when the CAA stats are published.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats January 2013

CAA stats show that 313,140 passengers were handled in January 2013, down 1.6% on January 2012. Atms were down 1.5%. Rolling 12-month total was 5,911,160 up 2.7% on a year ago.

As usual the CAA stats show a slightly higher figure than BRS's own stats but, as I've said before, neither show transit passengers so I've never been able to ascertain why there is a difference.

The CAA stats do include the Airbus shuttle passengers which are shown as charter passengers on the CAA stats list. 521 travelled to/from Hawarden and 2,039 to/from Toulouse.

The snow closure in January undoubtedly had an effect with around 80 flights cancelled or diverted (I can't recall that January 2012 was as badly affected by snow) but the main culprit is probably the charter market.

This winter there are only 9 weekly charter ski flight rotations compared with 14 last winter though the scheduled route network to snow destinations remains the same with over 30 weekly rotations.

In total there are six fewer charter flights each week (five ski and one sun) which at a conservative estimate means a loss of between 7,000 and 8,000 passengers for the month. This was offset to a degree by the Airbus shuttle passengers (2,500) but overall the airport was still down by around 5,000 passengers in January.

A look at other airports shows of all the top 20 so far reporting only Manchester showed a gain in passenger numbers, up just over 3%.

Although the airport's own figure vary slightly it's still possible to get from them a flavour of the winners and losers.

As stated charter was the main loser with 17.5 % fewer passengers. Sched international was up 2.25% but from 5% fewer rotations whilst scheduled domestic was down over 4.5% but from over 12.6% fewer rotations.

 

[superking]

not to bad figures.they could have been worse i suppose. seeing time of year.weather related and econamy.
it just goes to show thou how the lcc airlines are taking a fair amout of the charter buisness.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

not to bad figures.they could have been worse i suppose. seeing time of year.weather related and econamy.
it just goes to show thou how the lcc airlines are taking a fair amout of the charter buisness.

Aother thing I forgot to mention was that Amsterdam, Paris CDG and Brussels were all snow affected in January and closed for lengthy periods.

BRS lost several flights to each (as did other airports of course) which is illustrated in the stats for the month: AMS down 3%, BRU down 6% and CDG down a whopping 20%. There were also lost flights to the Scottish airports because of snow closures there.

February has an in-built disadvantage because February 2012 was a leap year so in theory all airports will have to factor in around a 3% reduction.

Re my last post, I missed that LHR was another top 20 airport that showed a gain in January: 0.3%.

 

[Aviador]

Disappointing figures for Bristol airport but still very much inline with the national trend. Very few airports, notably Manchester and possibly one or two others, were the only airports to see percentage gains during January.