CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Marko1]

That's a really good figure. A lot higher than I would have expected . I wonder how long till we get our first one million per month. Can't be long away.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

That's a really good figure. A lot higher than I would have expected . I wonder how long till we get our first one million per month. Can't be long away.

The highest monthly figure ever was August 2016 with 856,140 (CAA stats). From May to October last year there were six consecutive months with the total over 700,000.

Still a fair way to go to get one million in a month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

February 2017

February 2017

BRS's own stats for the month have been published today. They show that 484,918 passengers were handled during the month, up 11.4% on the airport's own figures for February 2016. As February 2016 was a leap year there is a built-in deficiency of over 3% for February 2017 so these figures are good.

As always the CAA's will be higher and will probably show that around 50,000 more passengers used the airport this February than last.

The airport posted its own stats for February 2017 a month ago and as I suggested the CAA stats (when finally published, and they have been today - at last) would be higher and show that around 50,000 more passengers used the airport than in the previous February.

That's what has happened with the CAA showing 489,591 terminal passengers, up 52,113 on February 2016, a percentage rise of 11.9%.

The CAA has shown no 12-month rolling totals nor comparisons with 2016 in its February 2017 stats, but based on the last known CAA 12-month total for BRS, the 12-month period ending the end of February is 7,721,799, up 12.1% on a year ago.

As BRS has already published its own figures for March (566,045) it can be reckoned that the CAA will come in at least at 571,000 which would take the 12-month rolling total at the end of March to around 7.81 million.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats March 2017

CAA has finally published its own stats for BRS which show that 572,344 passengers passed through the terminal in the month, up 12% on March 2016. This is 6,299 more than the airport's own figures.

I make the rolling total for the 12 months until the end of March to be 7,782,990, up 12% on a year ago.

In the first three months of this year the airport saw 178,000 more terminal passengers than in the same period in 2016. When it is considered that the first three months of 2016 saw 'just' 167,000 more passengers than the same period in 2015 and that 2016 went on to see 800,000 more in the entire year it might be thought that 2017 will see a similar rise.

Sadly, when the summer commences in earnest the actual and percentage monthly rises will be smaller than in 2016 but for all that 8 mppa should be exceeded comfortably, short of something unforeseen.

This evening the CAA has published provisional figures for April for some airports but, yet again, BRS is not amongst them, neither has the airport published its own figures for April yet.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

April 2017

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

Bristol Airport's own stats now on the airport website and show that 665,528 passengers were handled in the month, up 11.71% on April 2016. Atms were up 5.01%. The airport does not show the rolling 12-month figure, only the calendar year to date which is 2,183,579, up 12.26% on the first four months of 2016.

Very good numbers even though they are helped by the later Easter this year.

Given that the CAA stats are likely to be 3-5,000 higher when they are finally published it puts the airport around 7.850 million, probably a touch higher, for the 12 months to the end of April this year.

So the first four months of 2017 have seen about 245,000 more passengers than in the same period last year, which itself was up over 230,000 on that period in 2015. On the face of it, getting another 150,000 by the end of the year to break 8 million will be child's play. Although 8 million should be exceeded easily I can't see the sort of actual or percentage growth seen in the first four months of this year continuing throughout the summer. There should still be decent growth but perhaps not the spectacular figures of the past year or more.

 

[Red Flyer]

BRS have released their May figures. Total of 765624 pax for the month which is an increase of 68191 or 9.78% on last year. Yet another good month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS have released their May figures. Total of 765624 pax for the month which is an increase of 68191 or 9.78% on last year. Yet another good month.

BRS doesn't show rolling 12-month totals, only the year to date which is 2,949,203 at the end of May, 11.61% up on this period in 2016.

I was surprised at this percentage growth for May. Given last year's outstanding progress and the resultant higher figure on which this year's numbers are based, together with a slightly more modest increase in the network (compared to summer 2016), I was expecting somewhere between 5% and 7% in the summer months this year.

BRS, with Belfast City, is the only top 20 airport still to be shown in the CAA stats for April. The last CAA numbers published for BRS were those for March which then showed a 12-month rolling total of 7.782 million. BRS's own figures for April and May show 65,000 and 60,000 more passengers respectively for these months over last year. This would take the rolling 12-month total at the end of May to around 7.907 million, probably a few thousand more as BRS always reports fewer passengers than the CAA (under 2s etc not counted in BRS's figures).

If the rest of the year sees percentage increases of this nature then 2017 as a whole would be in the range of 8.3 million meaning that annual passenger numbers had increased by two million in three years.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats April 2017

April 2017
Given that the CAA stats are likely to be 3-5,000 higher when they are finally published it puts the airport around 7.850 million, probably a touch higher, for the 12 months to the end of April this year.

CAA BRS stats for April 2017 published at long last. They show that 673,440 terminal passengers passed through in the month, up 12.2% on April 2016. They were actually 7,912 higher than BRS's own stats giving a 12-month running total at the end of April of 7.856 million.

 

[Red Flyer]

June figures out early again. Total 842165 which is up 77405 pax. I don't particularly like talking percentages because you can manipulate them to your advantage. Even with the extra ECL pax another very good month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

June figures out early again. Total 842165 which is up 77405 pax. I don't particularly like talking percentages because you can manipulate them to your advantage. Even with the extra ECL pax another very good month.

Funnily enough BRS always underplays itself with its monthly and annual stats, compared with those issued by the CAA. As has been mentioned many times the reason is because BRS doesn't include under 2s and some other passengers (I know not what they are) in its own stats, whereas the CAA does for all UK airports.

When the previous year's or month's passenger figures are available publicly (which they are) it's a simple maths task to compare the latest stats to establish the percentage rise or fall from the publicly available figures. So if anything might be manipulated it's the figures themselves and BRS doesn't seem to be in that game in terms of boosting its numbers publicly.

In April for instance, BRS showed 665,528 but the CAA's figure was 673,440. The other thing about monthly percentage rises is that once a pattern is set it's a pretty good guide for establishing the total for the year in question.

I do agree that percentage rises can be misleading in comparison terms if the base figures are not known. In the aviation world an airport seeing its passenger numbers rise from 100,000 in a month to 200,000 will report a 100% increase. A bigger airport rising from one million to 1.5 million will 'only' see a 50% rise despite seeing 300,000 more passengers that month than the smaller airport with the much bigger percentage rise.

BRS's figures show a 11.27% rise for June although the 842,165 number is likely to be bigger when the CAA reports. The CAA hasn't reported any airport UK June figures yet and not all those for May, including BRS.

BRS doesn't publish rolling 12-month totals, only the year to date which is 3,791,368, 11.27% more than the same period in 2016.

When the CAA does publish the BRS June figures the 12-month rolling total is likely to be in the region of 7.98 million.

 

[Marko1]

I see the caa provisional stats for may have been completed minus brs and Lba. Have they given up on waiting for brs to issue the data ?

 

[Jerry]

June's are out but most of the airports are missing!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I see the caa provisional stats for may have been completed minus brs and Lba. Have they given up on waiting for brs to issue the data ?

June's are out but most of the airports are missing!

BRS had fallen into a pattern for nearly the past year in that it is always amongst the last airports to be reported on by the CAA, often the only top 20 airport in that position. During that time it hasn't appeared in the 'league table' (Airport Statistics Summary) which is discarded when the full results are in and does not include those airports reported on last.

As Jerry points out, June is particularly bad in that only a handful of airports have so far been reported on.

When the CAA finally does report on BRS each month it's possible to get the CAA's monthly figures for the airport (which always differ significantly from the airport's own figures which are lower) from table 09. The running 12-month total can then be ascertained by checking the previous month's running total but you have to do this every month and keep your own record because the CAA doesn't in the case of those airport not appearing in the Airports Statistics Summary each month (ie BRS every month).

Table 01 does provide a figure to three decimal points for each airport every month so a rough 12-month rolling total can be obtained from that.

 

[superking]

I notice on the ncl stats when released for the past few months the brs pax figures missing. asked
the question why and no one could explain why.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I notice on the ncl stats when released for the past few months the brs pax figures missing. asked
the question why and no one could explain why.

I was going to go into a lengthy tale about the apparent methodology used by the CAA and how it is confusing at best and misleading at worst (in terms of the final result) but I became bored typing it and anyone reading it or trying to would have nodded right off.

I'll try a summary but even that might induce yawns.

With domestic routes the CAA publishes two tables (don't ask why because I have no idea).

Table 12.2 is Domestic Air Pax Route Analysis and Table 12.3 is Domestic Air Pax Route Analysis By Each Reporting Airport.

12.2 seems to publish one figure for each route and they are (seemingly) arbitrarily divided under one end of the route or the other. In 12.2 most of the domestic routes for BRS come under the Bristol section except Aberdeen and Belfast Int, hence these route figures are already published in this table.

12.3 publishes all route figures under both airport sections hence the BRS May figures are in 12.3 for May if you look under the relevant routes at the 'away' end. This includes BRS-NCL by the way so that route is up to date because June has so far seen a negligible number of airports reported that include neither BRS nor NCL.

The snag is that when both ends are finally published they don't always agree.

For example in March table 12.3 re the BRS-NCL route showed 14,955 under the Bristol section and 14,871 under the Newcastle section. Similarly the EDI route showed 34,814 under the Edinburgh section and 34,952 under the Bristol section.

I said it was tedious and if anyone has made it this far this is only a summary. It gets worse and has been much worse since the 'new' system and new website began about 18 months ago. I've been following the CAA stats each month for over 20 years (sad, I know but the 'old' days really were more efficient with this).

 

[superking]

Never drop off with yr posts LY they are always very informative and I always think if I could fill in some of the gaps now and again.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA Provisional Stats for May now include BRS, I did post a tweet on twitter about the complete incompetence of the CAA, when advising May's tables were complete when obviously not with no figures for BRS, maybe someone realised their mistake.

Anyway the normal anomalies exist, no figures for VRN yet again and nothing for KEF (Did this operate in May), although there is a figure noted as unknown of 1,136.

Table 1 suggests a rolling 12 months figure of 7.926million

Table 9 suggests 776,528 terminal & transit pax for May 2017 up 10%

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats May 2017

KEF didn't operate in May. easyJet had finished by then and WOW didn't start until June.

As to the unknown 1,136 it's possible this could be Verona. Neos began on Saturday 6 May with the B 738 and bmi regional on 20 May with the E145. Assuming the first inbounds on both Neos and bmir were empty as they are both charter flights that would give a 77.3% percentage take-up of the available seats across both airlines. Given that some passengers would have gone for a fortnight the second inbounds of the season might not have been as full as usual.

Why we have this nonsense every summer with Verona, I don't know.

The CAA monthly figures were 10,000 above the airport's own total (the usual discrepancy) and 70,000 more than the CAA's total for May 2016. Given that BRS has already published its own figures for June (842,165) the CAA is certain to be considerably above that meaning that if May's CAA figures saw a 12-month total of 7.926 million terminal passengers June will be very close to 8 million, possibly just through the 'barrier'.

 

[NOSIGWX]

CAA stats May 2017

KEF didn't operate in May. easyJet had finished by then and WOW didn't start until June.

As to the unknown 1,136 it's possible this could be Verona. Neos began on Saturday 6 May with the B 738 and bmi regional on 20 May with the E145. Assuming the first inbounds on both Neos and bmir were empty as they are both charter flights that would give a 77.3% percentage take-up of the available seats across both airlines. Given that some passengers would have gone for a fortnight the second inbounds of the season might not have been as full as usual.

Why we have this nonsense every summer with Verona, I don't know.

The CAA monthly figures were 10,000 above the airport's own total (the usual discrepancy) and 70,000 more than the CAA's total for May 2016. Given that BRS has already published its own figures for June (842,165) the CAA is certain to be considerably above that meaning that if May's CAA figures saw a 12-month total of 7.926 million terminal passengers June will be very close to 8 million, possibly just through the 'barrier'.

I think I may know the issue with the Verona figures. The system the Airport uses for recording movements uses the code LIPN for Verona, where the actual ICAO code should be LIPX. It's been like this for as long as I can remember, i'm not sure why it's never been corrected.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think I may know the issue with the Verona figures. The system the Airport uses for recording movements uses the code LIPN for Verona, where the actual ICAO code should be LIPX. It's been like this for as long as I can remember, i'm not sure why it's never been corrected.

I've done a search and LIPN is the ICAO code for a tiny airfield called Verona Boscomantico. I bet they are a bit surprised to discover they've been handling a few thousand passengers from Bristol every year.

As you point out, Verona Villafranca is LIPX.

I can't believe they would make that mistake.