CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Kingshat]

In respect of the aircraft movements totals recorded by the airport, the ‘other’ flights are highly unlikely to have reduced by 26% over the year. This figure has almost certainly been skewed by the inability to maintain an accurate log of such flights caused by the much publicised IT failure. The same system that provides the public flight information screens in the terminal is used to record all general aviation and military aircraft movements and it remains inoperative to a large extent; therefore the figures in this particular regard are little more than a guesstimate.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As Red Flyer posted the December 2018 figures were 572,509 up 13.28% on 2017. Charter passenger numbers were 44,731 up 9.03%, scheduled international was 417,084 up 15.03% and scheduled domestic was 110,364 up 8.74% and other was 330 ( i have no idea what they class as other).
Passenger numbers for 2018 were 8,625,680 up 6.08 on 2017. Charter passenger numbers for the year were 1,247,906 up 17.97%, scheduled international 6,036,178 up 4.88% and scheduled domestic 1,337,859 up 1.84%. Other was 3737.
As always as these are BRS figures they won't include 2 years old and under so the CAA stats will be higher.
https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

Still awaiting November and December's figures from the CAA - BRS has jumped from August to December with its own figures.

In 2017 the CAA showed an annual total over 97,000 more than BRS's figures - for reasons that have been mentioned numerous times and it happens every year. The CAA showed 8.234 million in 2017. On that basis the CAA total for 2018 would be comfortably over 8.7 million.

The percentage increase in December in the BRS figures was over 13%. We don't know the percentage increase for November. Looking to the rest of the winter (January, February and March) a 13% increase over 2018 during those months would amount to around 203,000 additional passengers on the CAA numbers. If it was an average 10% rise it would still be over 150,000 extra passengers for the first three months of 2019.

For the BRS figures to reach 9 mppa at the end of this year there would need to be around 375,000 more passengers in 2019 than in 2018. On the likely CAA figures it would be nearer 275,000. If the first three months of the year provide the lion's share with 200,000 it can be seen that the back will have been broken on the task.

We wondered where the passengers were coming from to reach 9 mppa by the end of 2019. The winter numbers so far published indicate that winter will play a substantial role. It's very healthy to see winter beginning to play its part (it's been improving over recent winters anyway) and to grow in this way also brings the bonus of growing without stretching facilites too much in summer whilst they catch up.

It might be that the seven summer months will only need to see average growth of around 10,000-12,000 per month to reach the 9 mppa target, and that ignores further growth next November and December. These seven months in 2018 averaged monthly growth of 49,350 and the past four years have seen average annual growth of a touch under 600,000.

So given the likely kick-start between January and March, the rest of 2019 will probably require modest growth to enable the calendar year to break through the 9 million barrier.

 

[Jerry]

So given the likely kick-start between January and March, the rest of 2019 will probably require modest growth to enable the calendar year to break through the 9 million barrier.

I'd be surprised if BRS didn't achieve that next year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats December 2018

CAA published stats for a number of airports today but BRS was not amongst them, despite the airport publishing its own stats for the month earlier in the week.

November 2018 CAA stats are yet to be finalised completely because the CAA is still awaiting BRS and BOH (Bournemouth) figures, although the CAA has gone ahead and published all its tables for November but with BRS and BOH omitted.

Perhaps oddly, the CAA has included BOH in its first batch of December stats published today. I wonder what happened to their November CAA stats.

 

[Marko1]

What’s the chances of reaching 1 million in August this year? I make it that we need an extra 35k to get over the milestone (caa figures). We know there’s an extra 319 based this summer but there’s losses due to capacity decreases from tui and goodness knows what’s Ryanair up to ( currently 5 aircraft needed fri evenings ) .

 

[TheLocalYokel]

What’s the chances of reaching 1 million in August this year? I make it that we need an extra 35k to get over the milestone (caa figures). We know there’s an extra 319 based this summer but there’s losses due to capacity decreases from tui and goodness knows what’s Ryanair up to ( currently 5 aircraft needed fri evenings ) .

It would need an increase of just over 3.6% on August 2018. On recent August increases (6.3% in 2015, 10.3% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017 and 6.6% in 2018) that might seem like a formality. However, with TUI downgrading two of its based aircraft from 757 to 738 it might be a struggle - could fall a bit short, perhaps not by much.

BRS will probably need a 3.5% rise throughout the year to reach the airport's projection of 9 mppa for 2019. From December's outperforming figures (the only monthly winter figures yet available for BRS) it seems that January to March might reduce the necessary rise for the rest of the year to below an average of 3.5%.

I wonder what the airport would do publicity-wise if the CAA stats did show the one million reached in August but with the airport's own figures (the ones they seem to quote to the press) a few thousand less.

 

[Marko1]

It would need an increase of just over 3.6% on August 2018. On recent August increases (6.3% in 2015, 10.3% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017 and 6.6% in 2018) that might seem like a formality. However, with TUI downgrading two of its based aircraft from 757 to 738 it might be a struggle - could fall a bit short, perhaps not by much.

BRS will probably need a 3.5% rise trhoughout the year to reach the airport's projection of 9 mppa for 2019. From December's outperforming figures (the only monthly winter figures yet available for BRS) it seems that January to March might reduce the necessary rise for the rest of the year to below an average of 3.5%.

I wonder what the airport would do publicity-wise if the CAA stats did show the one million reached in August but with the airport's own figures (the ones they seem to quote to the press) a few thousand less.

On the last point it would be interesting to see if they do quote the caa figures if it reaches 1 million. It would be rather gutting to get close but not quite over the mark

 

[TheLocalYokel]

On the last point it would be interesting to see if they do quote the caa figures if it reaches 1 million. It would be rather gutting to get close but not quite over the mark

I know we've been here before but I really do find it odd that the airport has quoted lower passenger figures (than the CAA), both monthly and annually, for many years.

Most airports like to highlight ('boast' in common parlance) about increasing passenger figures and BRS is no different. See for example part of the below press release published last September which tells us that the airport was close to one million passengers in August last year. In fact, it was closer than the airport tells us: 964,549 per CAA to 951,973 quoted in the press release.

Of the UK airports that publish their own figures I can't think of any, apart from BRS, that are lower than those of the CAA. Given that BRS provides the CAA with the stats in the first place it's even more puzzling that the anomaly arises each month/year. I'm intrigued as to why BRS doesn't count under 2s (and certain other types of passenger too it seems, whatever they are) but presumably includes them in the stats it passes to the CAA.

It's not a matter of earth-shattering importance - typically around 100,000 fewer passengers each year these days- but I'm fascinated by the thinking behind it.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...centre/2018/9/record-month-at-bristol-airport

Nearly one million passengers passed through Bristol Airport’s terminal last month, making this August the busiest month in the Airport’s history.

The record total of 951,973* passengers took traffic during the summer to over 1.8 million – a 6.7 per cent increase on 2017. This growth continues to generate new jobs, with Bristol Airport taking on 100 new employees since the start of the year, with further opportunities available with business partner organisations across the 196 hectare site.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2018

Finally published today for BRS.

528,968 passengers passed through terminal, up just under 8.3% on November 2017. Rolling 12-month total was 8.643 million.

Most airports had their CAA December (and thus calendar year for 2018) passenger stats published a couple of weeks ago.

 

[superking]

CAA stats November 2018

Finally published today for BRS.

528,968 passengers passed through terminal, up just under 8.3% on November 2017. Rolling 12-month total was 8.643 million.

Most airports had their CAA December (and thus calendar year for 2018) passenger stats published a couple of weeks ago.

Good set of figures again. Shame they are so far behind being released,better late than never I suppose.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Good set of figures again. Shame they are so far behind being released,better late than never I suppose.

When the CAA stats for December finally come in they should take the CAA 2018 calendar year annual total to around 8.7 million.

In 2018 three months saw over 900,000 passengers (the highest was August with 964,500), three other months saw over 800,000 and another over 700,000. Only January at 486,000 was lower than 500,000 (as December 2017 was over 517,000 it's a safe bet that December 2018 will be significantly above that).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats December 2018

Now published and show that 570,790 passengers passed through the terminal, up 10.4% on December 2017. Rolling 12-month total which is also the total for the calendar year of 2018 was 8,697,000, up 5.6% on 2017.

This is a continuation of the strong annual growth over the past four years, viz,

2015 + 445,000 passengers, up 7.1%
2016 + 823,000 passengers, up 12.1%
2017 + 630,000 passengers, up 8.3%
2018 + 463,000 passengers, up 5.6%

which is an additional 2.361 million passengers in four years.

To meet the airport's projection of 9 mppa in 2019 an additional 303,000 passengers would be required, an increase of just under 3.5% on 2018's total.

However, there seems something wrong with the CAA's December stats. BRS's own stats showed 572,509 passengers in December, a rise of 13.28% on its own December 2017 figures.

BRS does not include under 2s and certain other types of passenger in its own figures, hence its monthly and annual passenger figures are always lower than those of the CAA - typically circa 100,000 annually and 7,000-12,000 each month. Furthermore, although the figures vary from the CAA the monthly percentage rises for both are invariably roughly the same.

Given the 13.28% rise in the BRS stats, I would have expected a rise of around 13% in the CAA stats.That would have given a figure of around 584,000 for December and a yearly total in the vicinity of 8.711 million.

I assume that the gremlins are still in the BRS IT systems somewhere as it can't be possible for the BRS figures for the month to be higher than the CAA's if BRS doesn't include some passengers that the CAA does include.

 

[IanFarquharson]

December 2018

View attachment 12292

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2018

Something that Jerry did in the CWL forum prompted me to have a look at some of BRS's passenger numbers in 2018, given that the CAA is likely to be a long while yet before it collates annual totals.

I've looked at BRS's five best routes in 2017 and from the CAA's monthly figures for 2018 I've arrived at this total for last year in comparison with 2017.

1. Amsterdam 433,802 + 5.7%
2. Dublin 429,127 - 0.15%
3. Edinburgh 400,016 + 1.5%
4. Malaga 353,690 + 1.7%
5. Palma 348,325 + 2%

Amsterdam and Dublin swap positions in the pecking order between 2017 and 2018.

So the top five routes were responsible for 22.5% of BRS's 8.7 million passengers in 2018.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats January 2019

The CAA has published passenger stats for a lot of UK airports today. No surprise that BRS is not among them. The airport is yet to post its own stats for the month too.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA Stats January 2019

The CAA has published passenger stats for a lot of UK airports today. No surprise that BRS is not among them. The airport is yet to post its own stats for the month too.

CAA have published stats for 2018 today:-

Total Terminal Pax: 8,699,529 up 6%, probably not entirely accurate based on the current shenanigans with Bristol Airports IT systems at present.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA have published stats for 2018 today:-

Total Terminal Pax: 8,699,529 up 6%, probably not entirely accurate based on the current shenanigans with Bristol Airports IT systems at present.

It has been a complete mess since September when, you will remember, the CAA finally published September's stats (in December) they showed no charter passegers and several routes that operated showed no passengers at all. Even if the total number of passengers for September was correct (I'm not sure how they could be given what I've just written) December itself was surely down by several thousand. The CAA showed nearly 2,000 fewer that BRS's own figures which never happens.

As you know, but non-regular readers might not, the CAA stats are always several thousand more each month than BRS's own because BRS does not include certain types of passenger that the CAA does include.

Taking BRS's own figures into account for December and applying the the same approximate percentage rise (13%), the CAA should have been showing BRS as handling over 584,000 passengers and not the 570,000 it has shown. That would give an annual total of around 8,713,000.

Broadly though the airport has achieved the 8.7 million for 2018 that looked likely under the CAA's numbers at the start of the year. 2019 is likely to be much less positive than any of the past four years of probably out-performance. 9 mppa for the calendar year of 2019 now looks less likely although, Brexit and other possible hindrances (whatever they might be) apart, they still might get somewhere near the figure.

 

[superking]

With the on going IT problems it looks like it cant be sorted out,perhaps find some one that can sort it,or scrap the system that's in place now and design and build a new system. With trying to sort out the system it will not come cheap.I think it would have been cheaper and quicker to install a complete new system and with some one knows what they are doing.Its rather scarey if the problem hit the operations side.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

The system is relatively new, only about 2-3years old and one if the best out there.
Out of curiosity, aside from the odd visual effects on the display boards, what are the ongoing IT issues?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Out of curiosity, aside from the odd visual effects on the display boards, what are the ongoing IT issues?

The completeness of and delay in getting out stats. Currently BRS's own figures are only available up to December and it is one of the few airports for whom the CAA has not been able to provide stats for January. BRS is now one of the last airports to have its stats published by the CAA nearly every month. Mayfly hasn't been produced since the IT attack either or, if it has, it's no longer available outside the airport itself.