CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

Top 20 Routes for 2018

The CAA has now published airport stats for the calendar year of 2018 and below is listed BRS's top 20 routes by passenger numbers.

Amsterdam 433,802 + 6%
Dublin 429,127 unchanged
Edinburgh 400,014 + 2%
Malaga 353,430 + 2%
Palma 348,325 + 2%
Alicante 340,061 + 3%
Glasgow 312,051 + 2%
Faro 299,906 - 2%
Belfast Int 258,128 - 1%
Geneva 220,956 - 5%
Tenerife 201,856 + 6%
Barcelona 201,233 + 6%
Newcastle 189,534 + 12%
Arrecife 165,759 - 3%
Venice 154,657 + 18%
Paris CDG 154,657 + 1%
Krakow 128,506 + 1%
Rome (FCO) 113,402 + 1%
Toulouse 110,243 unchanged
Madrid 105,874 - 8%

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats January 2019

Finally published today and show that 520,427 passengers passed through the terminal in the month, up 7% on January 2018. This is the first time that over 500,000 has been exceeded in January and, short of something catostrophic occurring, 2019 will be the first calendar year where each month has seen at least 500,000 passengers. With flybmi's demise, it might be a struggle to reach a million in August (the highest month) which would be the first time that a million passengers were handled in a month.

The rolling 12-month total at the end of January was 8.731 million, up 5.88% on a year ago.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS passenger numbers by route in 2018 (ack CAA)

Total terminal passengers 8,696,653, up 5.63% - in addition there were 2,876 transit passengers in the year

Amsterdam 433,802 + 6%
Dublin 429,127 u/c
Edinburgh 400,014 + 2%

Malaga 353,430 + 2%
Palma 348,326 + 2%
Alicante 340,061 + 3%
Glasgow 312,051 + 2%

Faro 299,906 - 2%
Belfast Int 258,128 - 1%
Geneva 220,956 - 5%
Tenerife 201,858 + 6%
Barcelona 201,233 + 6%

Newcastle 189,534 + 12%
Arrecife 165,759 - 3%
Venice MP 157,044 + 18%
Paris Cdg 154,657 + 1%
Krakow 128,506 + 1%
Rome FCO 113,402 + 1%
Toulouse 110,243 u/c
Madrid 105,874 - 8%

Nice 96,317 + 3%
Berlin Schoenfeld 94,480 +13%
Dalaman 92,910 + 32%
Inverness 92,842 - 4%
Prague 92,703 + 29%
Las Palmas 92,078 - 10%
Ibiza 90,905 - 9%

Murcia 88,795 + 10%
Paphos 88,644 + 18%

Pisa 76,899 + 23%
Lisbon 76,538 + 7%
Fuerteventura 75,557 + 2%
Warsaw Modlin 71,276 - 3%

Corfu 68,444 + 3%
Malta 67,576 - 1%
Zakinthos 66,844 + 23%
Girona 64,459 + 8%
Mahon 63,439 - 13%

Cologne 59,549 + 454% first full year of route
Bordeaux 58,514 + 18%
Budapest 55,948 - 3%
Brussels 55,115 - 9%
Frankfurt 53,277 + 8%
Milan Bergamo 50,945 u/c
Antalya 50,568 + 78%
Basel 50,349 u/c

Gibraltar 48,081 + 11%
Naples 48,537 + 6%
Munich 47,994 + 13%
Kaunas 47,439 + 1%
Heraklion 44,660 - 14%
Copenhagen 44,603 + 37%
Larnaca 44,319 + 5%
Gdansk 43,515 + 10%
Porto 43,120 - 5%
Katowice 42,941 + 3%
Poznan 40,674 + 8%
Cork 40,493 - 6%

Funchal 39,613 - 3%
Wroclaw 38,378 - 2%
Split 37,659 + 26%
Bucharest 37,622 + 11%
Dubrovnik 36,870 + 34%
Bilbao 35,828 + 26%
Rzeszow 35,583 - 6%
Knock 35,454 + 26%
Athens 35,149 + 669% first full year of route
Bodrum 31,949 + 20%
Hurghada 31,066 new route
Kefalonia 30,997 - 6%
Vienna 31,024 u/c

Rhodes 29,923 + 2%
Beziers 29,605 - 8%
Isle of Man 29,241 + 9%
Stockholm 28,885 + 521% first full year of route
Guernsey 27,678 + 11%
Chania 27,660 - 14%
Seville 27,095 new route
Valencia 26,989 new route (restored after Ryanair operated to nearby Castellon instead for a couple of years)
Pula 26,420 + 24%
Limoges 25,836 + 21%
Olbia 25,218 + 33%
Sal 24,510 + 13%
Jersey 24,447 - 8%
Burgas 22,943 + 86%
Kos 22,660 + 98%
Catania 22,466 + 70%
Innsbruck 22,220 + 3%

Bologna 19,690 - 7%
Keflavik 19,154 - 54%
Marseille 17,688 + 19%
Cancun 13,923 + 18%
Salzburg 13,240 - 1%
Aberdeen 13,161 - 21%
Punta Cana 13,106 new route
Hamburg 13,071 - 16%
Shannon 13,011 new route
Dusseldorf 12,807 - 21%
Grenoble 12,640 + 23%
Skiathos 12,233 + 50%
Genoa 11,691 new route
Verona 11,543 + 1563% incorrectly shown by CAA in 2017 hence the massive percentage rise recorded in 2018
Chambery 11,317 - 12%
Turin 10,775 u/c
Nantes 10,637 - 20%
Kittila 10,601 + 11%
Sanford 10,504 - 8%
Reus 10,258 - 51%

Sofia 9,753 - 74%
Enfidha 8,715 new route restored after absence
Almeria 8,162 + 6%
Preveza 6,916 new route
La Rochelle 6,868 - 2%
Santorini 6,107 - 23%
Bergerac 5,921 - 63%
Lyon 5,265 + 17%
Milan Malpensa 5,157 - 48%
Florence 3,065 - 2%
Hawarden 2,877 - 11%
Gothenburg 2,211 new route
Enontekio 1,730 + 33% Santa Christmas route
Rovaniemi 1,620 - 7% Santa Christmas route
Ivalo 1,250 - 16% Santa Christmas route
Ostersund 522 new route
Lleida-Alguaire 88 route re-introduced

Total Routes In 2018 - 125

In addition there were one-off charters/other ad hoc passenger flights to Denmark (Karup), France (Tarbes-Lourdes), Germany (Berlin Tegel, Rostock), Norway (Bergen, Longyearbyen, Tromsoe), Sweden (Vaxjo), Switzerland (Zurich), Turkey (Izmir), Barbados (Bridgetown) and United Kingdom (Gatwick, Birmingham, Durham Tees Valley, Liverpool, Manchester, Newquay, Southampton).

 

[Scottie Dog]

An excellent analysis and one that now has me thinking of doing a similar report for Manchester! Don't you hate people giving you extra work?

 

[alphagolf]

The completeness of and delay in getting out stats. Currently BRS's own figures are only available up to December and it is one of the few airports for whom the CAA has not been able to provide stats for January. BRS is now one of the last airports to have its stats published by the CAA nearly every month. Mayfly hasn't been produced since the IT attack either or, if it has, it's no longer available outside the airport itself.

I noticed a post on BAS’s Facebook page yesterday with a question about the mayfly, the response was that the mayfly is still produced and provided the flying club on the South Side. I myself posed a question as to whether the flying club would be able to either allow BAS to have a copy each week or post a copy to the flying clubs website.
Haven’t seen any answers as yet, but I do find it odd that we are consistently told by the airport that the mayfly is not available due to the IT failure yet it is apparently available for the flying club........

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I noticed a post on BAS’s Facebook page yesterday with a question about the mayfly, the response was that the mayfly is still produced and provided the flying club on the South Side. I myself posed a question as to whether the flying club would be able to either allow BAS to have a copy each week or post a copy to the flying clubs website.
Haven’t seen any answers as yet, but I do find it odd that we are consistently told by the airport that the mayfly is not available due to the IT failure yet it is apparently available for the flying club........

BAS carries this notice on its website which appears to be slightly at odds with what you say is their Facebook reply.

Following the IT issues at Bristol Airport in September 2018 the Bristol Airport Mayfly is currently unavailable for the foreseeable future, once we have an update or if the service is reinstated we will update this page, social media and out email subscribers. Thanks for your patience, but this is a feature out of our control.

 

[alphagolf]

BAS carries this notice on its website which appears to be slightly at odds with what you say is their Facebook reply.

Following the IT issues at Bristol Airport in September 2018 the Bristol Airport Mayfly is currently unavailable for the foreseeable future, once we have an update or if the service is reinstated we will update this page, social media and out email subscribers. Thanks for your patience, but this is a feature out of our control.

Yes that seems odd.

The Facebook post is as follows:-

The mayfly is still produced as the flying club gets them but they are no longer sent to us for some reason. Have to rely on FR24 now.

So I am as much in the dark as yourself.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

First batch of CAA airport passenger stats for February pubished today. No prizes for guessing that BRS is not amongst them.

 

[alphagolf]

First batch of CAA airport passenger stats for February published today. No prizes for guessing that BRS is not amongst them.

CAA finally published February 2019 stats:

Feb'19 523,742 UP 1%, if i remember correctly there were numerous cancellations due to snow and also the collapse of BMI Regional.

Due to ongoing technical issues the following data is unavailable: Air Taxi, Positioning, Local and Non Commercial services. This affects Table 3 Aircraft Movements

Bristol Airport itself is still displaying December 2018 stats............

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA finally published February 2019 stats:

Feb'19 523,742 UP 1%, if i remember correctly there were numerous cancellations due to snow and also the collapse of BMI Regional.

Due to ongoing technical issues the following data is unavailable: Air Taxi, Positioning, Local and Non Commercial services. This affects Table 3 Aircraft Movements

Bristol Airport itself is still displaying December 2018 stats............

On 1 February this year the entire day's operations were effectively cancelled because of the snow closure. That's over 3% of the monthly flights. Add in the effect of the flybmi cessation half way through the month and in normal circumstances the rise would have been in the region of 5-6%.

March 2018 saw over 400 flights cancelled because of the 'Beast From The East', so despite a later Easter this year and the loss of bmi regional March ought to see a reasonable rise in passenger numbers, whenever they are made public (in June?)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA finally published February 2019 stats:

Feb'19 523,742 UP 1%, if i remember correctly there were numerous cancellations due to snow and also the collapse of BMI Regional.

Due to ongoing technical issues the following data is unavailable: Air Taxi, Positioning, Local and Non Commercial services. This affects Table 3 Aircraft Movements

Bristol Airport itself is still displaying December 2018 stats............

The 12-month running total at the end of February 2019 was 8,737,068, up 5.6% on a year ago.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Summer 2019

Note: For those who don't want to wade through the detailed figures, scroll down to the summary.

With BRS's own passenger stats stuck at December 2018 on its website and the CAA being its now customary sleepy self with nothing beyond February this year, I've had a look at the likely passenger figure projections for the summer.

easyJet says it will be operating up to 770 weekly flights in summer 2019, which is an increase of 10% on 2018. That works out at an additional 70 flights per week or 10 a day. I'm assuming they mean peak summer, say July-September. In peak summer there will be 17 based aircraft, two more than last summer. I think it amounts to one extra A320 and one extra A319.

Averaging the two aircraft types let's say there will be an additional 1700 seats a day which means an extra 51,000/52,700 seats per month (depending on 30 or 31 days) in the three peak summer months.

Ryanair at the moment will operate an additional 20 flights per week in July compared with July 2018 which means around 16,000 extra seats in the month. August will see an extra 14 flights per week - around 12,000 extra monthly seats and September will see an extra 12 weekly rotations - around 10,000 extra monthly seats.

KLM will provide an extra 64 seats per day from 24 June with one of the four daily rotations ugraded to a Boeing 737-700 which amounts to just under 2,000 dditional seats per month.

Thomas Cook will be operating 3 x A321s for part of the summer with the other summer months reverting to the summer 2018 complement of 2 x A321 and 1 x A320. In the full months that the three 321s operate there will be between 4,000 and 5,000 extra seats per month.

TUI will be downsizing their base complement from 2 x B757s and 2 x B738s (in summer 2018) to 4 x B738s this summer, except it seems they now won't and will retain at least one of the B757s because of the MAX issues leading to aircraft shortages, albeit the 757s will be restricted to the B738 seating capacity. In addition the part-based B787 will visit for five days each week (four days in summer 2018) with two additional weekly rotations. Some weeks ago Severn calculated that in fact the loss of seats vis-a-vis last summer is only 148 per week, something over 600 per calendar month.

flybmi will no longer feature and carried around 20,000 passengers in August last year (I had to estimate their Paris CDG loads as they flew against easyJet) and slightly less in the other summer months.

Summary

Difference in available seats between 2018 and 2019.

easyJet plus 51,000/52,700 per month

Ryanair plus 10,000/16,000 per month

Thomas Cook plus 4,000/5,000 some months

KLM plus just under 2,000 per month from 24 July

TUI minus just over 600 per month

That's an increase in seating of at least between 66,000 and 67,000 per month.

However, the loss of Flybmi's circa 20,000 passengers per month must be included in the overall calculation.

August 2019

This is the month that looked likely to be the one that saw one million passengers carried for the first time. With the increases set out above it could still be.

In this month there will be:

52,700 extra easyJet seats
12,000 extra Ryanair seats
2,000 extra Thomas Cook seats (the third A321 only flies for part of August; it's a A320 for the rest of the month)
2,000 extra KLM seats
600-odd fewer TUI seats

If all the extra seats are occupied in August that would mean around an additional 68,000 passengers over August 2018. Even in August that's unlikely. If 90% of seats are occupied (that might be a slight under-estimate for August) it would mean just over 61,000 extra. However, the loss of flybmi's 20,000 passengers has to be factored in which would mean a net gain of around 41,000 if 90% of the seats are occupied this coming August.

CAA stats for August 2018 showed 964,549 passengers passing though the terminal which means that another 35,451 (a rise of just under 3.7%) will be needed this August to reach one million for the calendar month. So it might be a close-run thing if that one million is to be achieved this August.

 

[Severn]

Fantastic summary TLY, thank you!

 

[Marko1]

Brilliant analysis TLY. I think a million is a very real prospect. More exciting perhaps than 9 mill for the year

 

[IanFarquharson]

Flybe's circa 20,000 passengers per month

Brillant post and right up my street being a stato too !
Just the one error Flybe should read FlyBmi !

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Brillant post and right up my street being a stato too !
Just the one error Flybe should read FlyBmi !

Now corrected. Many thanks.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think a million is a very real prospect. More exciting perhaps than 9 mill for the year

It has a ring about it. Les Wilson, who was a great showman and master of the sound bite before the term became widely used, would have made capital out of it, as he would of all the other milestones that BRS has passed since his untimely death in 1995.

If, as seems likely, 9 mppa is achieved in 2019 it will be a continuation of the airport's record going back over the past 20 years where annual passenger figures have increased every year this century (except in 2009 at the height of the recession) hand in hand with rising average passenger numbers per flight. The latter has been achieved through a combination of larger aircraft and higher load factors. Aircraft movements have not increased at the same rate as the passenger increases either.

The airport's Operations Monitoring Report for 2017 (this is the most up-to-date version on its website) shows that in 2002 the average load per flight (scheduled and charter) was 78.59 which had risen to 126.6 by 2017.

With the movements operated by the small flybmi aircraft (up to 26 a day) being replaced by more easyJet and Ryanair movements, but not as many as 26 a day, this trend seems set to continue.

 

[Jerry]

CAA stats March 2019
622,358 passengers used the airport up 12% on 2018. The rolling year was 8,804,385 up 6.6% on 2018.

 

[Marko1]

There seems to be some missing figures though - Sal, hurghada , cancun , Marrakesh and Orlando all report zero figures but I’m pretty sure they operated during March. Also canary island services are massively down when I’m not aware of a drastic reduction in services this year.

Nonetheless other figures are showing excellent increases no doubt due to the bad weather of March 2018? Amsterdam nearly handled 40k in March 2019 !

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There seems to be some missing figures though - Sal, hurghada , cancun , Marrakesh and Orlando all report zero figures but I’m pretty sure they operated during March. Also canary island services are massively down when I’m not aware of a drastic reduction in services this year.

Nonetheless other figures are showing excellent increases no doubt due to the bad weather of March 2018? Amsterdam nearly handled 40k in March 2019 !

The 'Beast From The East' was responsible for over 400 flights being cancelled in March 2018, meaning that March 2018 actually saw a tiny fall in passengers numbers of 0.3% compared with March 2017. Against that is the fact that Easter was much earlier in 2018 and would have added passenger traffic at the end of March 2018. Furthermore, BRS lost all its flybmi services this March. Some of those were impacted by the Beast from The East last year but they ran during the month apart from that and the regular cancellations that flybmi suffered.

Taking the entire package, 12% is a first-class performance.

Incidentally, it seems that the absence of charter flight passengers has brought the Canary Island figures down, and that might also be the reason why the likes of Sal and Cancun aren't shown. There were definitely charter flights in March to most of these destinations. The same thing occurred last September when no BRS charter passengers were shown at all, but that was at the beginning of the computer hacking problems.

Incidentally, at 622,358, BRS's passenger numbers for March 2019 were only just over 24,000 fewer than GLA's. I'll mention the BRS and GLA context elsewhere in F4A later.