CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[ezy_brs]

if JET2 do open another base I hate to say it but I can honestly say it will be likely to be CWL in my eyes. Since BMI Baby ceased ops cardiff hasnt had a true LCC start up. Granted flyBE have made a very good base for themselves over the water but CWL could do with a true LCC to give some healthy competition to flyBE

 

[Jerry]

if JET2 do open another base I hate to say it but I can honestly say it will be likely to be CWL in my eyes. Since BMI Baby ceased ops cardiff hasnt had a true LCC start up. Granted flyBE have made a very good base for themselves over the water but CWL could do with a true LCC to give some healthy competition to flyBE

PR wise for CWL it would be a major coup to get an airline like Jet2 to base there rather than BRS but i guess it's a case of wait and see.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

if JET2 do open another base I hate to say it but I can honestly say it will be likely to be CWL in my eyes. Since BMI Baby ceased ops cardiff hasnt had a true LCC start up. Granted flyBE have made a very good base for themselves over the water but CWL could do with a true LCC to give some healthy competition to flyBE

Jet2 is more of a holiday airline and I'm not sure that they'd be competing on many of the Flybe routes. Their competition would more likely be Vueling, Ryanair and the charter airlines.

 

[Jerry]

competition to flyBE

Jet2 is more of a holiday airline

Jet2 could actually help Flybe rather than compete. As a holiday airline they also sell city break packages and could in theory sell them on Flybe's European flights which could boost the numbers. At BRS it is doubtful they could do that with Easyjet or Ryanair or even BMI.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Jet2 could actually help Flybe rather than compete. As a holiday airline they also sell city break packages and could in theory sell them on Flybe's European flights which could boost the numbers. At BRS it is doubtful they could do that with Easyjet or Ryanair or even BMI.

I don't know whether Jet2 Holidays use other carriers.

If they do then, yes, they might use Flybe. Equally, TUI uses easyJet for some of its holiday packages; I've twice had TUI company lakes and mountains holidays in recent summers when the carrier was easyJet to Geneva on both occasions. Two or three years ago Thomas Cook used easyJet at BRS to increase the number of its holiday package options. I don't know if it still does. I'm not sure about Ryanair although bmi regional is used by holiday companies on charter flights each weekend in summer to such places as Verona and Bastia.

Having said all this, I still tend to the view of ezy_brs that if Jet2 does test the Severnside water (not literally I hope) then CWL may well be the likely recipient because the competition there is far less.

 

[Jerry]

If they do then, yes, they might use Flybe. Equally, TUI uses easyJet for some of its holiday packages;

It could be possibly something arranged by the airport maybe? I know Thomson have used Vueling before but didn't know they had used EasyJet. Though i believe that BMI does do charters now and then for holiday companies.
Fingers crossed they do come as it would be a welcome boost as no doubt they would be at BRS too.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats for July 2016

Finally published and show 832,511 passengers passed through the terminal in the month, an increase of 11.5% on July 2015. Atms were up 9.3%. Rolling 12-month total was 7,221,847, up 10.2% on a year ago.

Yet again the CAA stats are much higher than BRS's own stats that showed 822,000 for July. In June and July the CAA showed a total of more than 19,000 than BRS showed in its own stats because of the way it doesn't record every type of passenger.

I find this inexplicable given that BRS provides the CAA stats, so why doesn't it include all types of passenger itself?

As for the CAA, yet again Verona is shown as nil despite there being two flights every Saturday.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2016

The airport has today issued its own stats for September and show that 775,708 passengers were handled through the terminal, an increase of 9.94% on the airport's own figures for September 2015.

The airport does not provide a 12-month rolling total but calculating from the latest published CAA rolling 12-month total (for July) I estimate that the rolling 12-month total at the end of September was at least 7,355,000, up over 10.5% on the same period last year. Because of the way BRS under-reports its own figures each month it's likely that another 20,000 can be added to this figure when it comes to the CAA stats - whenever they are finally published: still awaiting August's, let alone September's (for all airports).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats August 2016

Finally published and show 856,140 passengers (as expected nearly 10,000 more than BRS's own figures), up 10.3% on August 2015. Atms were up 10.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 7,301,993, up 10.7% on a year ago.

 

[alphagolf]

October 2016

Bristol Airport has published its own data for October 2016

Oct Pax:- 709,770 UP:- 11.26%

YTD Pax:- 6,562,532 UP:- 10.37%

Oct Atm's:- 6,829 UP:- 5.48%

YTD Atm's:- 63,901 UP:- 7.18%

Another great set of results, as TLY would say when the official CAA stats are released we will probably see an increase on BRS own figures.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

 

[Marko1]

Excellent figures again now consistently 10% increases every month this summer. With the increases this winter too from Ryanair and easyjet plus wow and extra wizz flights I would expect these increases to continue . However next summer looks dicey at the moment with the easyjet July/ August schedule decidedly lower than may/June it would be hard to imagine 10% increases this time next year

 

[superking]

reading round the forums it wonders whats going on at EasyJet,as a lot of EasyJet bases are less routes or not bookable. no one seems to have any answers about it.

 

[Marko1]

I asked both Bristol and easyjet specifically as an example about Nantes on social media and brs responded that there may be more released later though not confirmed whilst easyjet basically told me check the timetable (as though I wouldn't have already done it ). I would find it really strange that there is increases during the spring but then decreases in July/ August. Interestingly on other forums it is Edi that is mentioned and it is city routes that are affected. Here at brs it is predominantly sun destinations - tfs ibz pmi alc agp Vce Bcn that are affected

 

[TheLocalYokel]

October 2016

Bristol Airport has published its own data for October 2016

Oct Pax:- 709,770 UP:- 11.26%

YTD Pax:- 6,562,532 UP:- 10.37%

Oct Atm's:- 6,829 UP:- 5.48%

YTD Atm's:- 63,901 UP:- 7.18%

Another great set of results, as TLY would say when the official CAA stats are released we will probably see an increase on BRS own figures.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

Looking at the last published CAA monthly stats that included BRS (August this year) the running 12-month total then was 7,301,993. Taking BRS's own figures since then there were at least 63,000 more passengers in September and at least 69,000 more passengers in October.

Ergo, the running 12-month total at the end of October would have been at least 7,433,000 which is a rise of 10.9% on the figure a year ago. In the past 12 months BRS has seen at least 730,000 additional passengers.

The airport CEO was quoted a few weeks ago saying that 2017 would see in excess of eight million. Thus far it's hard to see where all the extra passengers will come from next year.

There is a lot of talk about easyJet cutting back slightly on some of its routes from July. Unless the airline is anticipating serious financial problems following GBP exchange rates and other effects of Brexit (if it is then other airlines will be affected similarly, some with perhaps not such a strong financial base as easyJet) I will be amazed if there are actually cutbacks. However, even a modest increase in easyJet flights in 2017 will still mean that something else substantial will be needed to get past the 8 mppa barrier.

 

[Marko1]

I agree with above. In order to get over the 8 million mark we are talking at least 500 k extra to come from somewhere. As I have discussed earlier I find easyJet's summer schedule very strange and surely need s some rectifying. Coupled with Ryanair seemingly reducing the number of based aircraft and the schedule looking less than summer 16 the growth is not apparent from those two. And what is happening with wow and Wizz. No sign of growth there. What is dispiriting is that other airports seem to announcing new airlines and routes but there is absolutely nothing from brs. It's December now , just four months from the start of the summer 17 season

 

[Marko1]

Rough calculations suggest that for an extra 500k next year you are looking at approx an extra nine rotations per day by an aircraft of approx 150 seats or more

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Rough calculations suggest that for an extra 500k next year you are looking at approx an extra nine rotations per day by an aircraft of approx 150 seats or more

So something significant will have to be announced soon unless that something that led to the CEO's statement (on the BRS website) has since turned into a nothing.

These things happen in the aviation industry of course. BRS went public a year or two ago saying that a NYC route was more or less guaranteed. Circumstances then changed.

I posted elsewhere this morning that BRS will have had a phenomenal two years rising from 6.3 mppa to 7.5 mppa in 2015 and 2016 - not far off a 20% rise - so perhaps we ought to accept that it might be time for a breather. That said, I still expect some sort of rise in passenger numbers in 2017, unless events (as Harold Macmillan once said) intrude.

 

[Jerry]

Rough calculations suggest that for an extra 500k next year you are looking at approx an extra nine rotations per day by an aircraft of approx 150 seats or more

It may be a combination of increased rotations on current routes, new routes by the current airlines and new routes by new airlines to do get there and it may take longer than they think. What will be interesting for next year is to see if Jet2 now based at BHX will attract passengers from BRS or if there will be no effect.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It may be a combination of increased rotations on current routes, new routes by the current airlines and new routes by new airlines to do get there and it may take longer than they think. What will be interesting for next year is to see if Jet2 now based at BHX will attract passengers from BRS or if there will be no effect.

I'm sure that some passengers from the Bristol catchment area use BHX - in fact I know they do (I've used BHX myself) and CAA stats support this, from memory around 400,000 in the most recent CAA airport survey - and some will no doubt use Jet2 but it won't have a significant impact on the BRS passenger numbers in itself.

BRS is surrounded by airports so gains and loses from neighbouring catchments with its biggest loss by far to London (primarily LHR) where over 5 million annual journeys are lost. However, many of these are inevitable as BRS could not sustain routes and frequencies that LHR can and does.

BRS's biggest market outside its own core catchment is South Wales and Devon/Cornwall where at least one million per year from both use BRS (CAA stats). A major initiative at either EXT or CWL, by which I mean those airports increasing by a couple of million a year or so, would create a negative influence on the BRS passenger figures without much doubt. BHX's spectacular recent expansion will already have made its mark at BRS but hasn't stopped rapid growth at Lulsgate.

As it is, BRS isn't that much behind its passenger number projections published in its master plan a decade ago which is more than can be said for a number of other airports that were wildly optimistic in their master plans published around that time (in response to the 2003 White Paper on civil aviation). The BRS management is usually reasonably accurate in its short term passenger projections since its master plan was published, at one point accepting that the original numbers would take longer to achieve than forecast at the time. 2015 and 2016 have got them back towards being on track.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats September 2016

These have now been published and show that 784,073 passengers were handled in the month, up 10.1% on September 2015. Atms were up 9.6%. Rolling 12-month total was 7,373,612, up 10.8% on a year ago.

Some CAA October 2016 stats have been published within the last day but BRS is not among them.