CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[CraigW92]

I was quite intrigued by this extract from Wales Online

"We have delivered 13 consecutive months of growth and have achieved 28% growth over the past year. Moreover, we are confidently forecasting continued growth for the next two years. We are a national asset for Wales and we intend to expand our activities to reflect this."

Words by Roger Lewis the chief executive there, now this is not possible unless a new carrier comes in or a current one expands,with the Flybe base levelling out of the course of the next few months something will have to happen for there to be continued growth, Cobalt being one with a LCA service for next summer but it will be interesting to see from now until October/November if there will be any other developments, FR usually announce things around 6 months in advance if I'm correct, while Vueling have started to load flights for Summer 17 up until around end of June currently

 

[Jerry]

I was quite intrigued by this extract from Wales Online

"We have delivered 13 consecutive months of growth and have achieved 28% growth over the past year. Moreover, we are confidently forecasting continued growth for the next two years. We are a national asset for Wales and we intend to expand our activities to reflect this."

Words by Roger Lewis the chief executive there, now this is not possible unless a new carrier comes in or a current one expands,with the Flybe base levelling out of the course of the next few months something will have to happen for there to be continued growth, Cobalt being one with a LCA service for next summer but it will be interesting to see from now until October/November if there will be any other developments, FR usually announce things around 6 months in advance if I'm correct, while Vueling have started to load flights for Summer 17 up until around end of June currently

I listened to an interview with Roger Lewis on Radio Wales the Good Evening Wales program it's about 1 hour 45 mins into the show.
It was about Cardiffs growth but he also said a few interesting things. The target they want to get to is 2 million passengers a year and he mentioned a 2 year horizon and a 5 year plan so maybe 2 million after 5 years?
Also Ryanair was mentioned in that they had doubled their winter flights and that Vueling had added 40% more seats and that the airport was looking at a catchment area of a 60-90 mins drive and had done extensive research on where people from there catchment area fly to. Also 6000 welsh fans had flown through the airport going to the Euros.
The interesting bits was that they had started early early talks with potential investors and mentioned the ownership models of Manchester and Birmingham as a potential model of future ownership for Cardiff.
The Orlando flights for next year and the cruise flights were mentioned but also he mentioned 4 new routes Verona Venice Naples and Dubrovnik. The only airlines i could find from a Cardiff perspective that flew to all were Thomas Cook Thomson and Vueling. Vueling was the only one that flew to all but Jet2 also flies to all of them so maybe a start for them? Just fly in aircraft? Or increased Vueling flights with the new routes could be enough for a one or 2 plane base? He didn't mention an airline but i also found it curious in that he didn't mention Flybe.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This link is to an interview given by the airport chairman to Wales Online today and broadly confirms the details set out in Craig's and Jerry's posts.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/cardiff-airports-chairman-believes-can-11604942

Continued growth over the next 12 and 24 months could be achieved with what the airport already has in place (it would be very modest) although it's very unlikely that there won't be some further expansion in one or some of routes, frequencies, airlines.

Verona, Venice, Naples and Dubrovnik are Newmarket Holidays and are occasional flights. There is also the regular Flybe Verona as well of course. I would have thought that the airport owners and management would want to get to 2 mppa much earlier than in five years' time. As was said recently, a two-aircraft base with 150-180 seat aircraft would reach that target, or at least get very close, in one fell swoop.

The ownership question is interesting. When the news of the WAG's purchase was announced Carwyn Jones, the First Minister, was on local radio the next day with a story that they would find a private sector partner who would share in profits but bear any losses on its own, so the tax payer would be in a win-win situation. I remember listening to him telling this to an incredulous interviewer.

Unsurprisingly, no-one was prepared to get into that sort of partnership. The WAG continued trying to involve the private sector even contemplating a complete sell-off but that didn't go forward either. The last pronouncement I heard from the WAG was that they were content to keep the airport in the public sector for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps having a new chairman for the airport company has persuaded the politicians that involving the private sector is the way to go after all. As I'm sure you know, both MAN and BHX are owned by a mix of public and private sector; in MAN's case 35.5% private sector and in BHX's case 48.25%.

I don't know when CWL is expected to make an operating profit. That would obviously have a bearing on any private sector involvement as would the level of debt.

It's all positive stuff though; a far cry from the days of Abertis/Aena ownership.

 

[Jerry]

This link is to an interview given by the airport chairman to Wales Online today and broadly confirms the details set out in Craig's and Jerry's posts.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/cardiff-airports-chairman-believes-can-11604942

Continued growth over the next 12 and 24 months could be achieved with what the airport already has in place (it would be very modest) although it's very unlikely that there won't be some further expansion in one or some of routes, frequencies, airlines.

Verona, Venice, Naples and Dubrovnik are Newmarket Holidays and are occasional flights. There is also the regular Flybe Verona as well of course. I would have thought that the airport owners and management would want to get to 2 mppa much earlier than in five years' time. As was said recently, a two-aircraft base with 150-180 seat aircraft would reach that target, or at least get very close, in one fell swoop.

The ownership question is interesting. When the news of the WAG's purchase was announced Carwyn Jones, the First Minister, was on local radio the next day with a story that they would find a private sector partner who would share in profits but bear any losses on its own, so the tax payer would be in a win-win situation. I remember listening to him telling this to an incredulous interviewer.

Unsurprisingly, no-one was prepared to get into that sort of partnership. The WAG continued trying to involve the private sector even contemplating a complete sell-off but that didn't go forward either. The last pronouncement I heard from the WAG was that they were content to keep the airport in the public sector for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps having a new chairman for the airport company has persuaded the politicians that involving the private sector is the way to go after all. As I'm sure you know, both MAN and BHX are owned by a mix of public and private sector; in MAN's case 35.5% private sector and in BHX's case 48.25%.

I don't know when CWL is expected to make an operating profit. That would obviously have a bearing on any private sector involvement as would the level of debt.

It's all positive stuff though; a far cry from the days of Abertis/Aena ownership.

I'm surprised he made them out to be new routes if they are already established (though occasional) routes. Guess we'll see if he was! I would have thought as well that to make the airport more attractive to the private sector then 2 million passengers and a low cost airline would be a big boost to attracting investors. Hopefully both will be achieved in the next couple of years!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

• I'm surprised he made them out to be new routes if they are already established (though occasional) routes. Guess we'll see if he was! I would have thought as well that to make the airport more attractive to the private sector then 2 million passengers and a low cost airline would be a big boost to attracting investors. Hopefully both will be achieved in the next couple of years!

It's what the aviation industry does - they are bigger spinners than Shane Warne. One instance:like a lot of low cost airlines Ryanair has many routes at airports that are summer only. When announcing their programme for the following summer Ryanair always described those routes that had been rested in winter but which had flown the previous summer as new routes. At one time on F4A I regularly highlighted airport spin.

The CWL press release dealt with Verona, Venice, Naples and Dubrovnik - see below:

Newmarket Holidays has added new destinations to its programme for summer 2017, with charter flights operating to Verona, Naples, Venice and Dubrovnik...........................................

 

[Jerry]

It's what the aviation industry does - they are bigger spinners than Shane Warne. One instance:like a lot of low cost airlines Ryanair has many routes at airports that are summer only. When announcing their programme for the following summer Ryanair always described those routes that had been rested in winter but which had flown the previous summer as new routes. At one time on F4A I regularly highlighted airport spin.

The CWL press release dealt with Verona, Venice, Naples and Dubrovnik - see below:

Newmarket Holidays has added new destinations to its programme for summer 2017, with charter flights operating to Verona, Naples, Venice and Dubrovnik...........................................

And there was me getting excited about new routes and a potential new airline! Oh well! I did notice in his Wales Online interview he never mentioned those routes.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CWL Passenger Stats for July 2016

The CWL management has released its monthly passenger figures press release, this time for July, which I've copied below. The extremely successful growth of the past year has, unsurprisingly, continued in July. The press release can be found at

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/news/2016/08/10/successful-summer-getaway-seals-growth/

Successful summer getaway seals growth

Another successful month of passenger growth has been recorded at Wales’ national airport.

Cardiff Airport has now delivered 14 consecutive months of growth. July alone saw an increase of 17% in passengers travelling through the airport versus the same month last year.

July also saw Cardiff Airport host the arrival of the Wales football team from Euro 2016 to a ‘hero’s welcome’ with both fans and the world’s media welcoming back the team from France.

The rolling total of passengers flying from Cardiff now stands at 1,326,923 representing 29% passenger growth over the last 12 months (July 2015-July 2016).

This news follows on from a number of important announcements from our airlines and operators in recent weeks:

• Flybe will start its new route to Berlin one month early on 1st October 2016 due to popular demand
• Flybe has agreed a new codeshare with airberlin, enabling passengers starting their journey at Cardiff to connect onto more long-haul destinations via Munich, Berlin-Tegel and Dusseldorf
• Newmarket Holidays has added new destinations to its programme for summer 2017, with charter flights operating to Venice and Dubrovnik
• Thomas Cook will operate two direct flights to Orlando on 25th March and 24th May 2017, giving families a selection of two-week Disney holiday options to choose from
• A number of airlines and operators have released their schedule for summer 2017, including Thomson, Vueling, Balkan and Newmarket Holidays.

Debra Barber, Managing Director at Cardiff Airport, commented: “It has been a very busy summer of welcoming passengers through the airport so far, and with the school holidays now in full swing we’re expecting some 250,000 passengers to fly to sunnier climes during the six week summer break – an increase of 25% versus the summer holiday season in 2015.

“This time of year is also a great time to welcome visitors to Wales to explore all that our beautiful country has to offer, from city culture, to stunning coastlines and vast mountain ranges. We’re proud to fly the flag for our national airport every day of the year, offering a warm, Welsh welcome to every one of our valued customers”

Fourteen months of passenger growth:

Month 2015-16

% growth vs previous year

Passenger numbers

June 15 12% 133,137

July 15 8% 139,805

August 15 10% 149,230

September 15 21% 150,477

October 15 62% 149,823

November 15 32% 65,040

December 15 56% 64,220

January 16 42% 59,715

February 16 68% 75,055

March 16 29% 78,413

April 16 40% 80,545

May 16 27% 134,285

June 16 17% 156,162

July 16 17% 164,145



BACK

 

[Jerry]

It is a pity that the CAA figures aren't out or that the airport doesn't do something similar because i'm intrigued to see how routes like Milan and Verona and Munich and Dusseldorf are doing.

 

[marsh.ger]

I forsee that the passenger numbers will continue to grow but there will be a slump in September/October 2016 v 2015. This is only due to the large volumes of passengers that passed through during the Rugby Wold Cup 2016.

November - February will be improvements on last year also but March will also see a slump mainly due to the RBS Six Nations Ireland & France fixtures.

At this stage however unless we see some late announcements I believe we will mainly relying on improved load factors for Summer 2017 so there will be slight increases.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I agree with your assessment based on the current network and frequencies. if the slump in the pound and negative sentiment over Brexit continues into next year there may well be a general falling-off in air travel, especially at regional airports many of which tend to rely on outbound leisure traffic for substantial parts of their passenger numbers.

However, if we discount those two possible negative influences I would be surprised if the current network and/or frequencies is/are not increased for summer 17. I say this a someone who is naturally cautious when it comes to 'forecasting' expansion at any airport.

 

[Jerry]

I forsee that the passenger numbers will continue to grow but there will be a slump in September/October 2016 v 2015. This is only due to the large volumes of passengers that passed through during the Rugby Wold Cup 2016.

November - February will be improvements on last year also but March will also see a slump mainly due to the RBS Six Nations Ireland & France fixtures.

At this stage however unless we see some late announcements I believe we will mainly relying on improved load factors for Summer 2017 so there will be slight increases.

Summer 2017 may be just a steady increase on this year with the maybe weekly rotations going up. Though there is still time, I'd be surprised if there were any new destinations announced. Winter will be interesting to see if the growth keeps happening in the quieter months.
The Italy and Scotland games are in February so that should put Rome on the departures board (Vueling flights and hopefully others) and the Scottish game should boost the Edinburgh figures. It's a pity Ryanair isn't putting on Edinburgh flights as well they'd popular and i doubt we'll see extra Flybe flights. France and Ireland are in March so no French airlift this year though the Ryanair and Aer Lingus flights will boost Dublin a bit and Vueling are doing some Paris flights as well. May 2017 will be interesting! Fingers crossed a German Spanish final!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CWL published its own figures for May on 7 June - see below press release from its website.

May saw an increase of 27% on May 2015 with 134,285 passengers passing through the terminal. Rolling 12-month total till the end of May was 1,279 million.

CAA stats May 2016

Published at last and show 133,981 passengers in the month, up 26.8% on May 2015. Atms were up 27.7%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,275,132, also up 27.7%. A slight difference with CWL's own figures but minor.

 

[Tinkerman]

One route that baffles me continuously from CWL is T3's NCL/ABZ service. The fares charged are relatively high and has had a really good month in May of this year according to the most recent stats. It's a niche service, so must be highly attractive to the business traveler. I'd be put off by those fares, but T3 must be making a good bit of cash out of it !

 

[Aviador]

In the pre recession days when Bmi Regional used to operate between LBA, GLA and EDI, the flights used to be filled by HBOS staff. I recall being told by a member of HBOS staff that they had a contract with Bmi Regional to provide a certain number of seats on the flights. Although in limited numbers I guess this kind of thing must still happen between cities where industry connections are vital. Or is it just that rail connections between the two cities are so dire people have to fly or face lengthy car journeys?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

One route that baffles me continuously from CWL is T3's NCL/ABZ service. The fares charged are relatively high and has had a really good month in May of this year according to the most recent stats. It's a niche service, so must be highly attractive to the business traveler. I'd be put off by those fares, but T3 must be making a good bit of cash out of it !

In the pre recession days when Bmi Regional used to operate between LBA, GLA and EDI, the flights used to be filled by HBOS staff. I recall being told by a member of HBOS staff that they had a contract with Bmi Regional to provide a certain number of seats on the flights. Although in limited numbers I guess this kind of thing must still happen between cities where industry connections are vital. Or is it just that rail connections between the two cities are so dire people have to fly or face lengthy car journeys?

I wonder if CWL is picking up a few passengers from the West Country on this service. The timings mean it's possible to do a reasonable day trip on Mondays through till Thursdays CWL-NCL-CWL or vice versa. Fares are higher than easyJet but EZY has been running down its BRS-NCL route for several years. It ran for years at 3 x daily (4 x daily one year) and every weekday the timings provided a decent day in Bristol or Newcastle - I know because I did it several times. The service is now down to 2 x daily on four days a week and just daily on the other three. Apart from Monday when it's possible to have a curtailed day in Newcastle all the other flights are later in the day.

There is a direct train service between Bristol and Newcastle that runs hourly in both directions, taking five hours and this seems to be the main reason for the decline of the air route although it's still the busiest between two English provincial cities - but for how much longer? By train between Cardiff and Newcastle takes over half an hour longer than the Bristol route but from Cardiff you also have to change trains at Bristol Parkway or Manchester Piccadilly and York, which might be a disincentive for a few people.

Eastern like bmi regional usually charges eye-watering fares so relatively few passengers can still be profitable. I don't know of any business or industrial connectivity between the Cardiff and Newcastle regions. Perhaps someone could help us on that.

 

[Tinkerman]

As per usual, you've hit it in one there Local. It's just something i picked up on in the stats, but that's a fair few passengers per week, nearly 300 i make it. And with the fares being charged T3 must be making a good amount on the service.

If this service was marketed then there would perhaps be the market for additional frequencies. To note these figures also appear to be purely NCL since ABZ figures haven't yet been released.

 

[Jerry]

The prices for the train is not cheap between Cardiff and Newcastle. £300 for a return. Wondering if there is Inland revenue and DVLA complexes or large offices in Newcastle? Government wouldn't blink twice at that price.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

August 2016

No CAA stats yet but the airport says that August saw a 14% rise on August 2015. Looking at the August 2015 total it means that an additional 20,892 passengers used the airport this August in an overall monthly total of 170,122.

The airport says that the 12-monthly total is 1,347,392 which is a rise of 30% on this time last year.

A more detailed commentary from the airport is at this link.

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/new...-following-launch-of-london-city-flybe-route/

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2016

CWL has posted details today of its September passenger numbers.

The rolling 12 month total stands at 1,352,045 which is a rise of 27% on a year ago. The airport does not give the September passenger figures or the percentage monthly rise although it does say that September represents 16 consecutive months of consistent growth.

As the airport told us previously that the 12-month total ending 31 August this year was 1,347,392 (up 30% on the same period the previous year) there must have been 4,653 more passengers in September 2016 than in September 2015. Looking at the CAA figures for September 2015 I estimate that the rise in September 2016 was in the region of 3.1% giving around 155,000 passengers in the month.

The important point is that September 2016 is the first month where the Flybe base was identical to the corresponding month a year ago. In other words, the new Flybe base factor is now taken out of this and future calculations unless it expands its base or adds more flights by other means.

Full CWL press release at this link

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/new...tes-to-passenger-increase-at-cardiff-airport/

 

[Jerry]

The figures will be interesting but there was the Rugby World Cup last year so that could potentially distort the figures on some of the routes Dublin comes to mind Belfast as well. It's probably why they didn't release the monthly figure as this years would be below last years. Negative PR!