CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Jerry]

CAA Stats May 2019
Domestic
Anglesey 1276 -6%
Edinburgh 9904 +1%
Glasgow 3092 +5%
Jersey 1669 -25%
Liverpool 187
Manchester 60
Newcastle 514 -54%
European
Dubrovnik 1457
Larnaca 2609 +2%
Paphos 2908 +56%
Paris CDG 6957 +2%
Munich 1327 +15%
Corfu 3042 +142%
Heraklion 1226 -23%
Keffalinia 1265 -23%
Kos 2153 +302%
Rhodes 4564 +43%
Zakinthos 4691 +59%
Cork 932 -26%
Dublin 8174 -11%
Milan MXP 1135 -38%
Naples 1734
Rome FCO 970 -36%
Venice 697 -26%
Verona 950 -35%
Malta 2950
Amsterdam 13,799 +15%
Faro 7145 -21%
Alicante 11,435 +3%
Barcelona 2426 -31%
Ibiza 2938 -34%
Mahon 4222 +68%
Malaga 9884 -6%
Palma de Mallorca 14,998 -13%
Reus 2728 -2%
Santiago de Compestella 272
Arrecife 3272 -34%
Las Palmas 1399 -6%
Tenerife South 8736 +14%
Antalya 3059 +64%
Dalaman 7734 +48%
Burgas 960 -32%
International
Enfidha 3485
Hurghada 1071
Doha 4997 +69%

 

[Jerry]

During May 2019 176,704 passengers used the airport so i decided to have a look at how many each airlines carried through the airport. As TUI, TCX and Balkan can't be separated i've put them together as a group. With Flybe i've included Eastern and guestimated Belfast and Faro.
Flybe
45,000 passengers used them comprising 25.4% of passengers for the month.
KLM
13,799 passengers used them comprising 7.8% of passengers for the month.
Vueling
20,222 passengers used them comprising 11.4% of passengers for the month.
Ryanair
10,937 passengers used them comprising 6.1% of passengers for the month.
Qatar Airways
4997 passengers used them comprising 2.8% of passengers for the month.
TUI, Thomas Cook and Balkan Holidays
81,248 passengers used them comprising 45.9% of passengers for the month.

 

[Jerry]

According to the airport June saw 193,176 passengers use the airport with 6% growth on 2018. The rolling year was 1,632,689 passengers.
April, May and June have seen 496,434 passengers use the airport up 10% on 2018.

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[TheLocalYokel]

According to the airport June saw 193,176 passengers use the airport with 6% growth on 2018. The rolling year was 1,632,689 passengers.
April, May and June have seen 496,434 passengers use the airport up 10% on 2018.

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August will be interesting. So far as I can determine, CWL's best ever month was August 2007 when 264,451 passengers were handled.
August 2018 saw 202,405 so 10% on that would lead to a total of over 222,000 in August this year.

 

[Jerry]

August will be interesting. So far as I can determine, CWL's best ever month was August 2007 when 264,451 passengers were handled.
August 2018 saw 202,405 so 10% on that would lead to a total of over 222,000 in August this year.

There was a comment elsewhere that 6% is disappointing but if May is to go by many of the Flybe routes maybe down or stagnant possibly due to the speculation over their survival. That must have effected forward bookings. Even though 6% is decent growth!

 

[Foxlimayankee]

TUI with the extra aircraft is providing (approx.) 22680 extra seats.
TCX with the larger A321 (approx.) 4800 seats
Ryanair with twice weekly BCN and MLA is providing approx. 6804 seats

Just those alone accounts for 34284 seats. Which given them being charter and Ryanair LF's you'd expect the majority to be taken.

Based on the article, a 6% rise is about 11500

This doesn't add up to me. If even just 31,500 of the seats above were filled, there's about 20,000 potential passengers lost here. Granted IB have gone, but that wasn't operating to anywhere near maximum LF, and Flybe have dropped to E75, but again they weren't all operating to near maximum LF. QR you'd expect to have improved over last June. Did anything else happen in June 2018 that would've boosted figures?

 

[Jerry]

Did anything else happen in June 2018 that would've boosted figures?

Not that I know of.

 

[Jerry]

4800 seats
Ryanair with twice weekly BCN and MLA is providing approx. 6804 seats

BCN wouldn't be extra as they replaced Vueling with less seats. Malaga is extra.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

TUI with the extra aircraft is providing (approx.) 22680 extra seats.
TCX with the larger A321 (approx.) 4800 seats
Ryanair with twice weekly BCN and MLA is providing approx. 6804 seats

Just those alone accounts for 34284 seats. Which given them being charter and Ryanair LF's you'd expect the majority to be taken.

Based on the article, a 6% rise is about 11500

This doesn't add up to me. If even just 31,500 of the seats above were filled, there's about 20,000 potential passengers lost here. Granted IB have gone, but that wasn't operating to anywhere near maximum LF, and Flybe have dropped to E75, but again they weren't all operating to near maximum LF. QR you'd expect to have improved over last June. Did anything else happen in June 2018 that would've boosted figures?

Even though the likes of Iberia and Flybe weren't operating at maximum load factor in June 2018 the seats that have gone because of Iberia's absence and smaller aircraft with Flybe still still have to be substracted from the 34,284 in order to arrive at a net increase of available seats.

May was up 7.2% which is in the same area as June. In May BCN, for example, was actually down 1100 passengers on May 2018 when IB operated the route but at greater frequency than Ryanair. Ryanair's BCN load factor for May was 80.2% which might not have been that much higher than IB's with the latter's slightly smaller aircraft and greater frequency. Looking at some of Flybe's routes in May this year compared with May 2018, Dublin was down 1,000, Milan MXP down 700, Rome down 550, Jersey down 500 and the Eastern Airways Newcastle down 600.

Furthermore, were some TUI flights now operated by the third based CWL aircraft this summer operated by third party carriers in summer 2018? If so, some of the extra available TUI seats would have to be reduced in number for comparison purposes.

Until the CAA produces route stats for June we won't be in a position to estimate how the monthly stats for that month break down in detail.

 

[Jerry]

I've done a rough calculation of how many seats were onsale for June 2019, roughly 222,304 seats were on sale, i say roughly as there could be some discrepancy but i don't think it would be major. So about 86.8% of the seats onsale were sold. June's CAAs stats will be interesting.

 

[Jerry]

Furthermore, were some TUI flights now operated by the third based CWL aircraft this summer operated by third party carriers in summer 2018? If so, some of the extra available TUI seats would have to be reduced in number for comparison purposes.

TUI added an extra 11 weekly flights i believe with the 3rd based aircraft.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Wasn’t champions league final June 2018?

 

[Jerry]

Wasn’t champions league final June 2018?

2017

 

[Pontyboy]

TUI with the extra aircraft is providing (approx.) 22680 extra seats.
TCX with the larger A321 (approx.) 4800 seats
Ryanair with twice weekly BCN and MLA is providing approx. 6804 seats

Just those alone accounts for 34284 seats. Which given them being charter and Ryanair LF's you'd expect the majority to be taken.

Based on the article, a 6% rise is about 11500

This doesn't add up to me. If even just 31,500 of the seats above were filled, there's about 20,000 potential passengers lost here. Granted IB have gone, but that wasn't operating to anywhere near maximum LF, and Flybe have dropped to E75, but again they weren't all operating to near maximum LF. QR you'd expect to have improved over last June. Did anything else happen in June 2018 that would've boosted figures?

The only logical explanation here is that Flybe have had a very bad month and TUI isn't performing as well as one would've hoped with the third based aircraft. My only hope is that Doha is significantly up.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

My only hope is that Doha is significantly up.

Last June saw 4,491 passengers so June 2019 ought to see a decent rise on that.

 

[Jerry]

The only logical explanation here is that Flybe have had a very bad month and TUI isn't performing as well as one would've hoped with the third based aircraft. My only hope is that Doha is significantly up.

I'd say Flybe and maybe Doha has not performed as hoped and I'm also going to add malaga as a whole. Both airlines may have timings on the route that could be putting people off. But we'll have to wait until at least August to find out from the CAA.

 

[Pontyboy]

I've gone through the boards in June - i could be one or two out, i counted 15 BE cancellations. 1320 seats - that's just on the flights that didn't operate. I imagine around the same was lost again for flights that did operate but passengers didn't fly because their first flight was cancelled.

 

[Jarvo]

Cancellations, Flybe's terrible media attention lately too will be affecting confidence from fliers, so I expect Flybe routes to be down again as some have already said here.
From June 2018 there were a few routes cut, Madrid with Iberia (1075). Also Dusseldorf (489) and Berlin (1171) with Flybe. (2735 total)
Not sure if the second part of the CWL-NCL-ABZ being cut was prior to June or not. It won't be a massive impact that one, but still further explanation.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

BCN wouldn't be extra as they replaced Vueling with less seats. Malaga is extra.

Yes, my mistake on BCN. When did FR's AGP

I've gone through the boards in June - i could be one or two out, i counted 15 BE cancellations. 1320 seats - that's just on the flights that didn't operate. I imagine around the same was lost again for flights that did operate but passengers didn't fly because their first flight was cancelled.

Also bear in mind that people from cancelled flights may have chosen to either cancel completely and fly from/to elsewhere, or were rebooked onto later CWL flights, so not all cancelled flights would result in loss of all passenger numbers to CWL figures.

Some great points though. It will be interesting to see the CAA stats.

 

[Pontyboy]

Cancellations, Flybe's terrible media attention lately too will be affecting confidence from fliers, so I expect Flybe routes to be down again as some have already said here.
From June 2018 there were a few routes cut, Madrid with Iberia (1075). Also Dusseldorf (489) and Berlin (1171) with Flybe. (2735 total)
Not sure if the second part of the CWL-NCL-ABZ being cut was prior to June or not. It won't be a massive impact that one, but still further explanation.

I think Flybe filled in the gaps with extra CDG, EDI, DUB amongst others. Plus the 3 base is now 88 seat E-175 as opposed to 118 seat E-195. A 33% reduction in seats on some routes. This makes more sense as to why pax are down on certain routes like Faro, Rome, Verona, Venice as they were generally loaded very well. Flybe fiasco was very public.