CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Jerry]

Where is the ambition to have both Ryanair and Vueling on the same routes just like Bristol has 2 major low cost carriers on theirs. Also, the amount of people flying from the regions airports has grown significantly since any economic downturn. The airport is underachieving. Sad but true.

Well they are on malaga together now so that maybe the test route to see how it does. Yes the airport is under achieving but I don't think it's down to a management that doesn't want to upset airlines but more down to the airlines willingness to add the extra flights and trash their yields and in Ryanair's case not taking too many passengers from their own Bristol flights.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Where is the ambition to have both Ryanair and Vueling on the same routes just like Bristol has 2 major low cost carriers on theirs.

Isn't that already happening with AGP?
And I also think if its happening with AGP, then it will soon happen with ALC and PMI. Vueling have their own internal issues to deal with which is why i think they haven't committed to expansion at CWL but have stayed on those 3 routes because they make them a decent profit at peak season. Winter maybe not so much but are still doing it.
Now CWL is on FR's radar they are clearly more open minded in allowing competition. Hopefully VY will keep up the fight rather than throw the towel in.
What needs to happen is FR attracting people that would normally fly EZY or FR themselves from BRS, rather than those who fly VY from CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There has been a lot of discussion again across a number of threads about how CWL can increase its passenger throughput. CWL does well in summer particularly with holiday routes and it's some of these that are likely to be the ones to boost passenger numbers in the foreseeable future.

Some people have also pointed out, and this has long been a known situation, that CWL would benefit if it could raise its winter profile.

I've taken the CAA annual and monthly stats for terminal passengers at both CWL and BRS for 2018 (to the nearest thousand), with CWL also shown as a percentage of BRS's numbers each month and also for the year. BRS figures are shown in the left-hand column then CWL's and finally that percentage.

Annual 8,697,000 1,579,000 18.2%

Jan 486,000 70,000 14.4%
Feb 517,000 78,000 15.1%
Mar 555,000 96,000 17.3%
Apr 703,000 105,000 14.9%
May 834,000 165,000 19.8%
Jun 908,000 181,000 19.9%
Jul 938,000 192,000 20.5%
Aug 965,000 202,000 20.9%
Sep 889,000 178,000 20.0%
Oct 802,000 140,000 17.5%
Nov 529,000 85,000 16.1%
Dec 571,000 86,000 15.1%

The above shows CWL's perhaps over-reliance on the May-September period. Both airports' best and worst months were the same - August and January, and this is usually the case most years. Whereas BRS's lowest monthly total was 50.4% of its highest, CWL's lowest was 34.6% of its highest. Put another way the five main summer months May-September saw 58.1% of CWL's annual passenger numbers whereas the same period at BRS saw 52.1%.

There is still a positive in this in that there is undoubtedly a market for further summer expansion, but without winter also upping its game the imbalance would widen.

If CWL could improve its winter performance it would obviously be better placed to attract more year-round airlines. If it had tracked BRS at 20.9% (its best tracking month in 2018 - August) throughout the year CWL's 2018 passenger total would have been well over 200,000 more at over 1.8 million.

 

[Jerry]

The problem is I don't see where the extra flights will come from to make that more busier. The only airline that has added has been Ryanair, TUI have lengthened Paphos. Flybe and Vueling are cutting capacity and apart from a few extra frequencies to the canaries I can't see where airlines will add capacity as routes like Berlin seemed to have flopped. I've heard it said a few times now that the way CWL is going St Athan will be busier in the winter.

 

[Jerry]

CWL needs either Ryanair or Easyjet to base to work with them to grow their passenger numbers but with their operations at Bristol the chances are slim to remote.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The problem is I don't see where the extra flights will come from to make that more busier. The only airline that has added has been Ryanair, TUI have lengthened Paphos. Flybe and Vueling are cutting capacity and apart from a few extra frequencies to the canaries I can't see where airlines will add capacity as routes like Berlin seemed to have flopped. I've heard it said a few times now that the way CWL is going St Athan will be busier in the winter.

CWL needs either Ryanair or Easyjet to base to work with them to grow their passenger numbers but with their operations at Bristol the chances are slim to remote.

Ryanair seems the most likely airline to grow CWL's passenger numbers as things seem at the moment, although the MAX problems might delay any plans they might have had for CWL and indeed other airports. An expanded Ryanair could also include some winter growth to the sun.

Aviation often springs surprises, as well as shocks, so something could come along from an unexpected quarter. Few people anticipated Qatar for example.

There is also the old chestnut - Jet2. That airline expanded from its northern heartland into the Midlands in recent years and also set up a substantial operation at Stansted. In due course it might well move further south and CWL might be an airport in its sights were that to happen.

I read on another forum that LTN is within half a million passengers of reaching its 18 mppa cap and that airlines looking to set up or expand there might be in limbo and have to look at somewhere else if the cap is not lifted quickly. The same could soon easily apply with BRS which is just over 1.1 million away from its 10 mppa cap. If, as seems likely, that airport has to go via the Planning Inspectorate appeal process route it could take up to two years from now before a final decision is made. If that final decision went against BRS airlines would have to look elsewhere to grow their operations in the south-west corner of Great Britain, and might even look elsewhere during the uncertain period before the outcome is finally determined.

 

[Jerry]

Aviation often springs surprises, as well as shocks, so something could come along from an unexpected quarter. Few people anticipated Qatar for example.

Jet2 would be a very nice surprise! I do think though that a lot of CWLs problems come down to 1 airline and they are Easyjet and the lack of them at the airport. I'm wondering if their base is so large and their brand so attractive to people that they literally suffocate airlines in this area and make it hard for airlines like Flybe and Vueling to a lesser extent to make money on their routes because the competition is so intense that they have to keep prices lower than they should be to try and attract people onto the routes and Ryanair add even more competition in an already competitive market. Those damn orange planes seem to be a people magnet!
Even if BRS gets capped at 10 million it would remain to be seen in whether that would attract Easyjet to Cardiff or whether they would just wait for the cap to be lifted.
Ryanair hopefully will keep expanding at Cardiff and fingers crossed base one day but I do feel that Cardiffs future with Flybe is still quite uncertain considering and there is Thomas Cook to consider as well.
A good positive is that the E190 for KLM seems to be the overnight aircraft for the whole winter so fingers crossed that'll carry on into the summer!
To go back to Jet2 would they provide that counter to Easyjet and be attractive enough for the airport to compete and expand back over the 2 million passengers mark?

 

[geoff]

My neighbours recently flew BRS to Barcelona, for a few days, when I pointed out that they could have flown there from CWL with FR, they said they flew from BRS because they preferred Easyjet, and they have to pass CWL to get there. To make things worse four other friends flew from BRS to Amsterdam for a long weekend, not even looking at flights from CWL. I think part of the problem is that when people book on line with companies who have an allocation on flights from BRS, they just accept what they are given.

 

[louis_walton]

I am currently on hoilday in Pula and got chatting to a couple from West Wales and they travelled from Bristol and she says she never travels from Cardiff because it’s too expensive, she doesn’t like TUI. She also told me she’s flown with Jet2 to Kefalonia but didn’t say which airport probably BHX and from Bristol to Bologna also. I did think it was relatively strange for her to travel past CWL to BRS but it does seem very common. Just shows the public perception of CWL isn’t been worked on enough.

 

[Jerry]

they said they flew from BRS because they preferred Easyjet,

And that's the problem for CWL in that the Easyjet brand is so attractive to people many just won't bother looking elsewhere, another problem is that on many flight and holiday searches either nearest airports come up or it's the region as a whole so BRS tends to dominate.

I am currently on hoilday in Pula and got chatting to a couple from West Wales and they travelled from Bristol and she says she never travels from Cardiff because it’s too expensive,

Cardiff does suffer massively from that perception and no matter what is said people just won't believe that CWL can be cheaper and again it goes to the fact that Easyjet is always percieved as a cheap airline where as Flybe isn't and a lot of the destinations that Easyjet operate like Pula aren't available direct. It can be very frustrating sometimes especially if you tell people online that it can be cheaper and there reaction is just to call you a liar. But it goes back to people's expectations and people expect Easyjet to be flying from Cardiff.

 

[Nigel B]

On the price comparison between CWL and BRS, I just returned from Paphos Cyprus, I compared the flights from both Cardiff and Bristol with TUI,flying on the same day 17/07 and returning the following week. Bristol was £246.00 return and Cardiff was £192.00 return.
I have in the past flown cheaper from CWL than BRS, just need to look on the most popular routes.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA have published June 2019 airport stats in the past hour. I'll leave Jerry to do his usual excellent commentary.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats June 2019
The airport saw 192,988 passengers use it in June up 6.2% on 2018. The rolling year was 1,629,961 up 8.1% on 2018.
Atms were 1730 up 1.3% for the month.
Top 10 routes
1. Palma de Mallorca 17,091
2. Malaga 13,764
3. Amsterdam 13,532
4. Alicante 11,846
5. Edinburgh 9435
6. Dublin 8699
7. Dalaman 7841
8. Tenerife 7572
9. Paris CDG 7138
10. Zakinthos 6292

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats June 2019
Domestic
Anglesey 1063 -18%
Belfast City 5738 -1%
Edinburgh 9435
Glasgow 2736 +4%
Jersey 1840 -16%
Newcastle 487 -58%
European
Dubrovnik 1359
Larnaca 3414 +18%
Paphos 2947 +94%
Le Havre 36
Paris CDG 7138 +1%
Munich 1183 -7%
Corfu 2921 +56%
Heraklion 1448 -4%
Keffalinia 1456 -3%
Kos 3032 +93%
Rhodes 4762 +67%
Zakinthos 6292 +50%
Cork 1033 -10%
Dublin 8699 -2%
Milan MXP 1257 -41%
Naples 1448
Rome FCO 1321 -27%
Venice 1019 -29%
Verona 1180 -21%
Malta 2996
Amsterdam 13,532 +7%
Faro 6972 -24%
Alicante 11,846 +14%
Barcelona 3039 -21%
Ibiza 4762 -29%
Mahon 4752 +41%
Malaga 13,764 +37%
Palma de Mallorca 17,091 -13%
Reus 3550 +14%
Arrecife 3349 -22%
Las Palmas 1878
Tenerife 7572 -3%
Burgas 3098 -27%
International
Antalya 3304 +1%
Dalaman 7841 +2%
Hurghada 1266
Enfidha 3038
Doha 6077 +35%

 

[Jerry]

Not too bad for June, growth was decent and maybe let down by Flybe probably due to a mixture of their woes and the E195 going mid month. The extra TUI capacity seems to be taken up in the most part with the new routes doing decently and Zankinthos making the top 10! Ryanair adding Malaga seems to have grown the route but by only 37% so maybe not as much as was hoped but Malta and Barcelona seem to be doing decently. The disappointment i'd say is Doha i'd have expected it to better than that especially as the Cricket world cup was in town during that period.

 

[Jarvo]

Over all, not bad at all! The recent trend of everything Flybe touches turns to ash is definitely true of the continental routes, except of course Paris.
Doha again, I agree, is a shame, although again, it's not too far away from Birmingham's statistics, only 2,700 less, which is pretty crazy. The freight carried on the route is 255 tonnes. On a 12T capacity 788 I can't imagine that's creating excitement in Doha either since that'll be out of a roughly 720T capacity for the route that month.
In regards to AGP, FR offered 24 flights between the two destinations (4x3 rotations) meaning they have added an extra 4536 seats to the scheduled capacity. In June, however there was an increase of 3364 pax. This means there is an additional 1172 excess shared between the two carriers compared to last year, assuming Vueling maintained their presence of last year. I can imagine, from Vueling's awful AGP winter schedule, that they took the brunt of the introduced over capacity on the route.

 

[Jerry]

On a 12T capacity 788 I can't imagine that's creating excitement in Doha either since that'll be out of a roughly 720T capacity for the route that month.

With freight it's tricky to go off just the weight. I'm told one of the more popular exports for air freight is crisps which are generally light and bulky. Also seafood and vegetables won't be massively heavy. I think in all it would depend on how much Qatar are charging per pallet or cubic metre in how much they are earning from it.

In regards to AGP, FR offered 24 flights between the two destinations (4x3 rotations) meaning they have added an extra 4536 seats to the scheduled capacity. In June, however there was an increase of 3364 pax. This means there is an additional 1172 excess shared between the two carriers compared to last year, assuming Vueling maintained their presence of last year. I can imagine, from Vueling's awful AGP winter schedule, that they took the brunt of the introduced over capacity on the route.

It was interesting that they introduced it at 3 weekly as every other route they went for 2 weekly. I have heard on social media lots of complaints about the timings for both airlines. If Ryanair keep at 3 weekly next summer then they will only operate on the same day once a week which is Wednesday. As for winter i don't think the summer has anything to do with, unfortunately i believe during that period not enough people are using the route.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Interesting to see the growth of some Greece & Cyprus routes. I'm not familiar with exactly how many extra frequencies there were between 2018 and 2019, but to assume TCX have only increased capacity by 40 seats per flight and TUI have increased by 1 flight per week (shown 2018 vs 2019); TCX - Increase 320 seats & TUI 1512 = 1832
CFU 1875 vs 2921 - Increase of 1046
KGS 1567 vs 3032 - Increase of 1465
RHO 2846 vs 4762 - Increase of 1916
ZTH 4203 vs 6292 - Increase of 2089
LCA 2887 vs 3414 - Increase of 527
PFO 1519 vs 2947 - Increase of 1428
Based on the above, bearing in mind it being a standard increase which may differ in actual capacity that was offered in 2018, CFU & LCA hasn't been a great success, KGS & PFO have done well and RHO/ZTH both seem very popular in 2019 vs 2018.

DBV at 1359 was roughly 90% LF
NAP at 1448 was roughly 96% LF
HRG at 1266 was roughly 84% LF

Mainland Spain & Balearics remained consistent on some routes and dropped on others - IBZ dropped by approx. 1900 pax and PMI dropped by approx. 2700 pax, although scheduled pax did increase slightly. MAH was the only route to see a healthy increase of approx. 1400 pax.
Canaries with LPA and TFS remaining consistent and ACE losing approx 1000 pax.
Turkey also remained consistent with small increases

Ryanair
MLA at 2996 was roughly 88% LF with 9 flights with 3402 seats
BCN at 3039 was roughly 89% LF with 9 flights with 3402 seats
TFS at 1372 was roughly 91% LF with 4 flights with 1512 seats

Vueling
PMI at 5015 was roughly 87% LF with 16 flights with 5760 seats

Overall not bad results, hopefully the yields for June haven't been trashed for TUI by increasing capacity and July will see further increases for everyone.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Naples and Dubrovnik seem to be doing decently okay for their first year of ops.

 

[Jerry]

208,322 passengers used the airport in July. Rolling year was 1,648,000 up 8% according to the airport.
July 2018 saw 192,021 passengers use the airport. An extra 16,301 passengers used the airport. So growth of 8.4% for July 2019.

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