Archive Flybe at Cardiff Airport

[Aviador]

Excellent opportunity for CWL punters then. The only question mark is the yield if ticket prices are too low.

We often raise the yield question here especially when comparing flights from different airports. I have no doubt yield plays a big part in the long term survival of a route but it still makes me wonder how many airlines often offer cheaper flights from some of the larger UK airports compared with some of the smaller ones.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Great to see people from across the bridge using our services here at CWL. Just goes to show what happens when the right routes are put on-sale, they're certainly competitive. Out of curiousity i'd like to know the 'leakage' if you like of BRS catchment to using CWL services (Doubt this is easy to determine by any means). FCO, MAD, NCL, BCN strike me as key leakage routes.

How revitalizing is it to talk about it in this context. Of course the leakage in the other direction is largely higher.

The last CAA survey that involved CWL was for the year 2015. The stats showed that 3.1% of CWL's passenger numbers (35,000) had origin or final destination in South West England. It's not broken down any further so could be anywhere from Gloucestershire to Cornwall, and east to Wiltshire/Dorset/Bournemouth-Poole all of which are within the area of the government region of the South West - over 5 million inhabitants.

When bmi baby began at CWL in 2002 there were reports in what was then the Bristol Evening Post that some people were driving past Bristol Airport to take advantage of the very low lead-in fares that baby offered at CWL. The fares could not remain that low and Go, which was being taken over by easyJet, gradually 're-captured' its local customers.

Zoom flights were also popular with West Country travellers and I know people from the Bristol area who use CWL for all sorts of reasons, ranging from having a bull and a cow at BRS over drop-off car park fees to being unable to get a flight at BRS because of full flights and having to use CWL which they found to their liking and then began to use again.

The idea that West Country don't use CWL is something of an urban myth. It's just that the numbers are far fewer than the flow the other way.

 

[superking]

when the airlines put cheaper seats on offer there is a problem getting bums on seats. they would like to sell seats to get the plane with more pax. it works the other way as well.if seats are more expensive then the plane is not far off full.if there was some way it could get pax numbers for the routesthat you quoted the same day of operation then pax figures will back up to what I have said.take advantage of the cheaper seats while they are there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Jerry said (in CWL Cobalt thread):
I was wondering if they would put it off till October or November and launch it as a winter sun route. Although CWL does have 3 new destinations for next summer 4 if count Berlin it is a shame that they have gained no new holiday routes or a scheduled route that TOM or TCX already cover (with the exception of FAO). No one knows what will happen for 2018 if Cobalt will start then or ever or other airlines will appear. If there isn't I'm also wondering if it might be better for the airport and Flybe to lease an A320/737 and operate the routes like LCA MLA and IBZ. I suppose similar to what TCX does at CWL.

It's funny you should day that because I had a vague memory that Flybe did operate Boeing 737s about ten years ago. A check with the Internet shows that they operated four 737-300s at various times between 2005 and 2007, of which at least two were leased from Astraeus.

http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Flybe-history-b737.htm

I recall that they were used on sun routes. I think Exeter was one airport that saw them. I don't know if they were all wet leased. I imagine that they were.

Would they go to the expense of doing something similar again? The likely answer is a resounding no but airlines never fail to surprise me at times.

 

[Jerry]

Would they go to the expense of doing something similar again? The likely answer is a resounding no but airlines never fail to surprise me at times.

I honestly don't know the cost but TCX does something similar at CWL though i believe they might provide the cabin crew. The likelihood of it happening is probably non existent but an A320/737 operating for Flybe could allow them to operate routes like LCA, LPA, FUE, ACE, MLA, IBZ, MAH, MJV and maybe even the likes of Dubrovnik or Rhodes. It also could give them the ability to say increase FAO seats without increasing the amount of flights and increase routes like Rome in the summer while freeing up some time on E jets for other routes that don't warrant an A320 size aircraft. In the end the money earners from CWL are the holiday sun routes like LCA and IBZ and FAO.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I was wondering if they would put it off till October or November and launch it as a winter sun route. Although CWL does have 3 new destinations for next summer 4 if count Berlin it is a shame that they have gained no new holiday routes or a scheduled route that TOM or TCX already cover (with the exception of FAO). No one knows what will happen for 2018 if Cobalt will start then or ever or other airlines will appear. If there isn't I'm also wondering if it might be better for the airport and Flybe to lease an A320/737 and operate the routes like LCA MLA and IBZ. I suppose similar to what TCX does at CWL.

No, no and no, and several reasons for this.
TCX, MON, TOM, LS and many more all lease in extra capacity during the summer season to cope with demand. The main difference between these and BE is that they are all mainly operating on behalf of an in house Tour Operator. Flybe are not a Tour Operator, they are a standalone scheduled Airline offering REGIONAL flights. Yes, EZY draft in extra capacity during peak season, but there's another major difference in this. EZY have brand awareness throughout Europe, their business is Europe wide flights.
BE are known as a regional carrier offering flights usually under 2-2.5 hours. It would be marketing suicide to try and promote the brand further afield just for a few flights to/from CWL.
CWL is not a proven market for any of these "LCA, LPA, FUE, ACE, MLA, IBZ, MAH, MJV and maybe even the likes of Dubrovnik or Rhodes.", with the exception of maybe IBZ, MJV and MAH from when WW operated them. The rest are all proven markets for a holiday operator, not a scheduled operator. That would be another big risk.
I'm not saying these routes wouldn't work on a scheduled basis, but they need the clout of FR or LS to come in and make it work, not a regional carrier like BE that don't have their own suitable aircraft to operate it.

IF BE were to expand, and it's a big IF, then take a look at the route map on offering from SEN. These flights are going to be operated by Cityjet under the flybe brand. The impression I get is that they will actually be on E175's. Not entirely sure on the setup, if they are BE E175 or if they are handing them over to WX.
CGN, PRG, BUD, VIE, ZAD, DBV, VCE, FSC, LYS, REU, RNS, CNE and MXP.
I would say out of those that PRG, VIE, DBV and VCE may well work from CWL. I would also throw a couple of French routes into the mix.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe are not a Tour Operator, they are a standalone scheduled Airline offering REGIONAL flights.

Yes Flybe aren't a tour operator but they are more than just a regional airline in the sense that they do operate holiday routes from smaller regional airports like Cardiff. They operate AGP, PMI and FAO from EXT. From DSA they operate the same destinations as well as ALC. From Norwich ALC and AGP and from SOU ALC, AGP and PMI. So they have history of it and they do operate a Keffalonia flight from BHX. And they are a brand name that is known in the South Wales area which is the area they are targeting. They have also shown that there is demand for their flights in the area. Also CWL already has flights to many of the destinations I suggested provided by TCX and TOM so surely there is a proven demand already. The problem I see for CWL is that unless it proves to airlines that routes like that can work then they won't operate them and for CWL Flybe is the only airline that it has a relationship with that could possibly prove they can work. The prime example is FR, it added an extra flights to a route that Flybe had already proven the demand to FAO. It didn't put on a new destination which CWL sorely needed because no one else had proven it.

IF BE were to expand, and it's a big IF, then take a look at the route map on offering from SEN

The operation from SEN is Stobart Air under a Flybe franchise arrangement (Stobart also own the airport) and they are going to use 2 E195's (not sure where they've come from) and i believe the crews are training in Exeter. SEN is good example in that the owners couldn't get an airline to operate the more city based leisure routes so are going to try and create the demand themselves to tempt other airlines onto them for the future. The more tour operator routes like LPA, TFS and PMI are actually covered by the EZY based aircraft.

 

[Jerry]

I don't why but the Q400 G-PRPA is currently operating the 20.35-21.40 DUB-CWL flight instead of the one of the E195's. By looking at the schedule G-FBEJ was due to operate the DUB flight and did return from MUC on time but didn't depart for DUB. Also looking at the morning G-PRPA is down to operate the 05.45 CWL-EDI flight (according to fr24) as well as LCY but CDG and TXL are both down to be operated by the E195's.

 

[Ray Finkle]

So they have history of it and they do operate a Keffalonia flight from BHX

From BHX Flybe do a weekly Kefalonia and a weekly Preveza, these are flights on behalf of Ionian Holidays and I don't think can be booked as flight only.

It's funny you should day that because I had a vague memory that Flybe did operate Boeing 737s about ten years ago. A check with the Internet shows that they operated four 737-300s at various times between 2005 and 2007, of which at least two were leased from Astraeus.

I recall that they were used on sun routes. I think Exeter was one airport that saw them. I don't know if they were all wet leased. I imagine that they were.

BHX had 2x 733's (from Astraeus) based initially flying to Alicante, Malaga, Murcia, Faro, Palma, Almeria and Geneva. There was stiff competition at the time from My Travel Lite and BMIBaby (as well as Monarch and the usual charters) and Flybe didn't win the battle.

They operate AGP, PMI and FAO from EXT. From DSA they operate the same destinations as well as ALC. From Norwich ALC and AGP and from SOU ALC, AGP and PMI.

That's interesting and it makes you wonder why Cardiff only has Faro? I'd have thought that the likes of Malaga and Palma would be bankers for the summer months?

I notice that DSA doesn't have the likes of Dusseldorf, Milan, Rome etc from Flybe whereas Cardiff does. When in talks about the base could it be that the Cardiff management saw an opportunity to get some key business links covered, possibly thinking that the sun routes may be easier to cover in the future with more leisure orientated carriers?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Yes Flybe aren't a tour operator but they are more than just a regional airline in the sense that they do operate holiday routes from smaller regional airports like Cardiff. They operate AGP, PMI and FAO from EXT. From DSA they operate the same destinations as well as ALC. From Norwich ALC and AGP and from SOU ALC, AGP and PMI. So they have history of it and they do operate a Keffalonia flight from BHX. And they are a brand name that is known in the South Wales area which is the area they are targeting.

Jerry, I think you are misunderstanding my points. Let me reword it. Flybe are a scheduled Airline that's main focus is city regional routes with some "sun" routes to the med. They even claim to be "Europes largest regional Airline". They have no Tour Operator arm linked to it. EZY and all the other Airlines I mentioned do. Ryanair make their own markets with it's rock bottom prices and marketing. BE are not on that scale.
They have a history of operating to "med" destinations where there is high demand to Airports in the Western Med. They are not known for operating further than Italy and to the Eastern Med, so no, they don't have a history of operating to the areas of Europe you are suggesting, especially with some other airlines aircraft.
Secondly if you believe that Airlines operating to sun destinations rely 100% on outbound UK traffic, then please, never work for an Airline. Even EZY and FR generate inbound traffic to the UK on sun routes, they also have the marketing power to attract this inbound traffic.
The startup costs of marketing, Airport fees, longer sectors, longer crew hours on a subleased aircraft is not what Flybe's business model is about. Not knowing their core market and direction is what got BE into the financial mess it was in before, now is not the time to test the water, especially at CWL.
Lets leave the longer routes to Airlines that know their business model and have sizeable enough aircraft and brand power to bring the loads in.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

That's interesting and it makes you wonder why Cardiff only has Faro? I'd have thought that the likes of Malaga and Palma would be bankers for the summer months?

I notice that DSA doesn't have the likes of Dusseldorf, Milan, Rome etc from Flybe whereas Cardiff does. When in talks about the base could it be that the Cardiff management saw an opportunity to get some key business links covered, possibly thinking that the sun routes may be easier to cover in the future with more leisure orientated carriers?

I would agree with you. I'm sure CWL and the deal makers fought hard for City routes. Lets not forget BE weren't brought into CWL to take the Welsh out of Wales to destinations already served. They were brought in to provide more options for Welsh travellers as opposed to other Airports, but also improve connectivity INTO Wales from around Europe, as an economic driver.
FAO is an exception as it was highly underserved and I'm sure BE make a fair bit of money from it.
Vueling are doing a great job on their med routes. If prices weren't competitive I would agree BE should operate the routes as well, but I think CWL needs to avoid Airlines competing with themselves. VY are handling Spain very well. BE are growing their city routes and hopefully FR will increase it's longer routes, such as Canaries and Greece. Each Airline having a slice of it's own market, whilst not creating overcapcity and CWL turning out to not be profitable.

 

[Jerry]

I'd have thought that the likes of Malaga and Palma would be bankers for the summer months?

AGP, ALC and PMI are covered by VY at CWL scheduled wise but IBZ and MAH are only covered by TOM and TCX as are a lot of the longer ones like LPA and LCA.

I notice that DSA doesn't have the likes of Dusseldorf, Milan, Rome etc from Flybe whereas Cardiff does. When in talks about the base could it be that the Cardiff management saw an opportunity to get some key business links covered, possibly thinking that the sun routes may be easier to cover in the future with more leisure orientated carriers?

Yes it does seem that there is a more city orienated approach the airport does like to promote many of the routes with connecting capitals as the theme. Italy especially has been a success for Flybe along with FAO. I think the problem the airport may have is that they may struggle to attract the leisure carriers it needs because for the airlines they want to see proven demand. An example is Jet2 as BHX and STN. They already know the routes they will be operating have proven demand whereas at CWL they may look and may not see there is that proven demand and they may have to take a leap of faith and i dare say airlines don't generally do that!

 

[Ray Finkle]

Yes it does seem that there is a more city orienated approach the airport does like to promote many of the routes with connecting capitals as the theme. Italy especially has been a success for Flybe along with FAO. I think the problem the airport may have is that they may struggle to attract the leisure carriers it needs because for the airlines they want to see proven demand. An example is Jet2 as BHX and STN. They already know the routes they will be operating have proven demand whereas at CWL they may look and may not see there is that proven demand and they may have to take a leap of faith and i dare say airlines don't generally do that!

I can understand that. Although with a set number of based aircraft offering a finite amount of flights maybe the powers that be thought international business connectivity was more important than more capacity to the sun?

I just thought that in the future attracting another airline on main sun routes would be 'easier' than getting someone to operate the likes of Dusseldorf, Milan etc? There are larger airports than Cardiff that do not have such flights. EMA for example has no Milan or Munich and Eurowings to Dusseldorf only lasted a season, so it should be quite an achievement that CWL not only has these flights but is making a success of them?

I see that Ryanair have dipped their toe in with Faro, if things go well there's no reason why the likes of AGP, ALC etc wouldn't follow? I also wouldn't totally rule out something from Jet2 in the future 🙂

 

[Jerry]

Jerry, I think you are misunderstanding my points. Let me reword it. Flybe are a scheduled Airline that's main focus is city regional routes with some "sun" routes to the med. They even claim to be "Europes largest regional Airline". They have no Tour Operator arm linked to it. EZY and all the other Airlines I mentioned do. Ryanair make their own markets with it's rock bottom prices and marketing. BE are not on that scale.
They have a history of operating to "med" destinations where there is high demand to Airports in the Western Med. They are not known for operating further than Italy and to the Eastern Med, so no, they don't have a history of operating to the areas of Europe you are suggesting, especially with some other airlines aircraft.
Secondly if you believe that Airlines operating to sun destinations rely 100% on outbound UK traffic, then please, never work for an Airline. Even EZY and FR generate inbound traffic to the UK on sun routes, they also have the marketing power to attract this inbound traffic.
The startup costs of marketing, Airport fees, longer sectors, longer crew hours on a subleased aircraft is not what Flybe's business model is about. Not knowing their core market and direction is what got BE into the financial mess it was in before, now is not the time to test the water, especially at CWL.
Lets leave the longer routes to Airlines that know their business model and have sizeable enough aircraft and brand power to bring the loads in.

The type of route I was suggesting LPA or FUE aren't going to bring in much inbound tourism. LCA might. If the goal for Flybe is to target routes which could bring in more inbound tourism then more routes to Germany like Cologne or Hamburg could be potential new routes and maybe Turin in Italy. Another potential area could be Scandinavia. Oslo Copenhagen Stockholm and Helsinki could be potential routes to target for inbound tourism. Another potential could be Rennes as a once a week on a Q400.

I can understand that. Although with a set number of based aircraft offering a finite amount of flights maybe the powers that be thought international business connectivity was more important than more capacity to the sun?

I just thought that in the future attracting another airline on main sun routes would be 'easier' than getting someone to operate the likes of Dusseldorf, Milan etc? There are larger airports than Cardiff that do not have such flights. EMA for example has no Milan or Munich and Eurowings to Dusseldorf only lasted a season, so it should be quite an achievement that CWL not only has these flights but is making a success of them?

I see that Ryanair have dipped their toe in with Faro, if things go well there's no reason why the likes of AGP, ALC etc wouldn't follow? I also wouldn't totally rule out something from Jet2 in the future 🙂

Italy is very popular. Dusseldorf was originally 4 weekly but now it's only 1 weekly on a Q400 and a German tour company takes some of the seats. Hopefully that relationship could lead to other German routes as I believe the airport does want to encourage German tourism to Wales.
Jet2 would be great for CWL but I would be surprised if they turn up in the immediate future after there current big expansion and I wish Ryanair would just jump in waist deep instead of dipping their toe!🙂

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If Ryanair did jump in 'waist deep' they would surely be looking at the likes of ALC, AGP and PMI, as well as other routes that might not be flown currently from CWL. Vueling has built up these routes, plus Barcelona, very well and has become a popular part of the CWL travellers' experience. They will be 5 x weekly on both ALC and AGP this summer and it's not unreasonable to think that this will be increased, in summer 2018 if not this summer, although I believe they have already put on extra frequency at certain periods this summer.

Is there enough of a market for both Ryanair and Vueling which would possibly see 2 x daily in summer on these routes across both airlines? July, August and September perhaps, but early summer as well?

Away from sun routes CWL has never been good traditionally and it often struggles in winter particularly. Some of the Flybe monthly load factors so far this winter have been disappointing even to Germany and Italy. Looking at January, on 118-seat aircraft the load factors were: Berlin Texel 31% (37 passengers per flight), Munich 30% (36 pax), Milan Malpensa 37% (44 pax). Looking further afield Faro was 25% (30 pax) and the ski routes to Geneva and Chambery were only 51% (60 pax) and 44% (52 pax) respectively. Surprisingly, a major business route to Edinburgh saw only 53% (63 pax) and Glasgow was 38% (45 pax).

Admittedly January is the poorest month of the year for passenger numbers but airlines looking to base would want to be sure of some sort of year-round market. We don't know how much Flybe is being subsidised by the airport owners or whether some of these routes would be sustainable without a subsidy. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that if Ryanair flew the same routes the loads would be considerably higher but would they be high enough on Ryanair's bigger aircraft?

Whilst load factors don't tell the whole story by any stretch of the imagination Ryanair's business plan seems to be predicated on 90% load factors on most of its routes. Ryanair, or any other airline in this category, would need to be satisfied on that score. Ryanair seems satisfied with its Tenerife operation and presumably sees a market in Faro. That one might be something of a litmus test if it is retained in winter 17-18.

We might know very soon if Ryanair does have any expansion plans for CWL this winter as its winter programme has already been announced at many of its bases.

 

[Jerry]

If Ryanair did jump in 'waist deep' they would surely be looking at the likes of ALC, AGP and PMI, as well as other routes that might not be flown currently from CWL.

If they base aircraft then they will no doubt go onto those routes but depending on the amount of aircraft they based then it may well be possible that they might not add over capacity to the routes.

Surprisingly, a major business route to Edinburgh saw only 53% (63 pax) and Glasgow was 38% (45 pax).

I do wonder if the the 05.45 morning departure time for EDI and the 23.35 arrival time for GLA might have put some people off. No one knows what the future of the Flybe base will be at CWL but it could be possible that in the future routes like EDI, GLA, DUB, ORK, JER and CDG will end up on Q400s with extra frequencies to make up for less seats being available. Germany and Italy and FAO could be covered by 2 E175s with some increased frequencies on routes like MXP and FCO even in winter the LFs will be a lot better. I also wonder if for routes like EDI the Q400 would make the operation more profitable and the same for the E175s on the european routes.

 

[Jerry]

I just had a look at the seat plan for tommorrow's inaugural BE FCO flight (i know not 100% accurate) and there is only 6 seats left. So even if some seats are blocked off hopefully that is good news and we'll have a nearly full flight!
My history of CWL is a bit patchy but is this the first scheduled service to Rome from CWL? Or is it a return? And i'm wondering if this will be the first scheduled service to Rome by Flybe itself?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I just had a look at the seat plan for tommorrow's inaugural BE FCO flight (i know not 100% accurate) and there is only 6 seats left. So even if some seats are blocked off hopefully that is good news and we'll have a nearly full flight!
My history of CWL is a bit patchy but is this the first scheduled service to Rome from CWL? Or is it a return? And i'm wondering if this will be the first scheduled service to Rome by Flybe itself?

I can't remember a regular service from CWL to Rome before, either scheduled or charter. There have been flights to Rome for rugby matches etc of course and possibly for Newmarket Holidays-type visits.

Rome ought to be a good route for Flybe from CWL. They don't currently fly from Rome (FCO nor CIA) other than the new CWL route. I don't know whether they've done so in the past.

Most larger UK airports have Rome connections with other airlines, notably with the likes of easyJet and Ryanair, so Flybe might have decided to steer clear of that competition.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I just had a look at the seat plan for tommorrow's inaugural BE FCO flight (i know not 100% accurate) and there is only 6 seats left. So even if some seats are blocked off hopefully that is good news and we'll have a nearly full flight!
My history of CWL is a bit patchy but is this the first scheduled service to Rome from CWL? Or is it a return? And i'm wondering if this will be the first scheduled service to Rome by Flybe itself?

Jerry, it's far from accurate, as already commented in another topic. Looking at the seatmap this flight could be half full, with everyone sat at the front, all the seats blocked at the back and only 6 people left to check-in. The same happens on the Q400, Embraers 145's-195's, ATR's etc. I'm not doubting that this flight might well be full, but the seatmap is not a way to work that out. It's different for say FR, as bigger aircraft are easier to balance and may not require seats to be blocked, as well as FR are 100% online check-in.

 

[Jerry]

It should prove a popular route considering it's a good tourist destination and a cruise port as well.
I know Flybe does do Milan out of Manchester and they are up against Easyjet and I think Ryanair from Liverpool but I'm wondering if Milan has more business pax than Rome which may make it more viable for Flybe.