Jet2.com

[Jerry]

Apologies for the late reply guys. I think it's FR.

That would be fantastic news! Do you know how many they are recruiting?

 

[Jerry]

Apologies for the late reply guys. I think it's FR.

That would be fantastic news! Do you know how many they are recruiting?

 

[JohnCuddy1964]

I'm sorry i don't know how much staff are being taken on.

The T/A times do imply FR.

 

[Jerry]

I'm sorry i don't know how much staff are being taken on.

I was wondering if it would give a clue to the size of any potential base. I have no idea how many line maintenance engineers an airline has per aircraft at their bases you see.

 

[JohnCuddy1964]

Typically not that many from my experience (Been in this field for 30+ years).

TOM have only one or two based down at CWL. If this does work out rosy i don't suspect that it would be a large base. May not be a base at all just extra maintenance requests for FR at Cardiff. Something seems like it's happening though.

Cheers.
John C

 

[Jerry]

I'm sorry i don't know how much staff are being taken on.

The T/A times do imply FR.

35 mins for them i believe?

 

[JohnCuddy1964]

35 mins for them i believe?

Well as little as possible more like. But yes that is about right - sometimes less.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

25 min turnarounds for FR. They won't open engineering base without having an aircraft based. Do we know that it's specifically for CWL or is it a recruitment drive for engineers in South Wales that could well be based out of BRS? I'm guessing if you've seen the turnaround times, have you seen a schedule?

 

[JohnCuddy1964]

25 min turnarounds for FR. They won't open engineering base without having an aircraft based. Do we know that it's specifically for CWL or is it a recruitment drive for engineers in South Wales that could well be based out of BRS? I'm guessing if you've seen the turnaround times, have you seen a schedule?

Yes 25 mins is the one. As far as i'm aware then it's Cardiff related nothing related to Bristol on this one. No i have not seen a schedule but roughly know demands. Don't quote me on this but i think this is what it is related to.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Interesting! Will have to wait and see when it's released

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Welcome John.

This was something mentioned a few months back, or possibly on BRS thread? I forget.
Either way. line maintenance is basic maintenance. As already said likely for a based aircraft. Heavy maintenance is more Cardiff Aviation. It sounds like an outsourced engineering firm/airline is looking to have an engineering base at CWL (Or St Athan, although to me seems uneccessary)
So let the speculation begin. 737 operators - Jet2, Monarch (soon) or Norwegian.
TOM have their own engineers and doubt they will outsource.
Place your bets...

I missed your post at the time, FLY.

Yes, someone posted in the Dried Plum earlier this year that SR Technics was to begin doing 737 base maintenance at BRS in summer 2018. Someone else told me privately that this was the case too but I don't know for certain which airline or whether it's still going to happen.

Presumably there is base maintenance for the TOM 738s at CWL already and presumably at BRS for Ryanair's 738s and TOM's one 738 there.

 

[Jerry]

The Local Yokel recently attended attended a drop in consultation done by Bristol Airport and in post 29 on the Airport Master Plan for the next 30 years-Consultation thread on the Bristol forum, he had a conversation with the Head of Aviation for Bristol Airport. Part of that conversation concerned Jet2 and he posted
''+ I asked about Jet2 and the reply was guarded although I was asked to consider what Jet2 could bring that existing airlines could not, particularly as Jet2 is morphing more and more into a holiday airline and TUI and TCX are continuing to expand at BRS. The airport would like more non-based routes to spread the load throughout the day, which is something that has often been mentioned on F4A in BRS threads.''
If BRS is guarded about Jet2 operating out of the airport then could that be an opportunity for CWL to attract a Jet2 base?
If BRS is off the table for Jet2 for the immediate future then would CWL be an alternative for them if they wanted to expand into South West area? For me there could be 3 problems.
Firstly CWL for Jet2 wouldn't cover the whole South West like BRS would it would essentially cover South Wales and Bristol and maybe overlap the Gloucestershire area with BHX but wouldn't be an alternative for Somerset, Devon and Cornwall. A potential solution for that would be opening up a smaller base at EXT, a 2 or 3 aircraft base at CWL and a 1 or 2 aircraft base at EXT could be a possiblity with aircraft from both bases operating into Newquay on W patterns or via short hops to NQY from those bases. That way the Jet2 holiday brand would have the South West area covered as well as South Wales and Bristol.
Secondly CWL infrustructure itself. From what i've seen at EDI and i'm guessing it's the same at many other of Jet2's airports they seemed to have a very large check in area and part of me wonders within the current check in area whether that could be accomodated at CWL (i believe CWL has maybe 16 check in desks and i don't know how many Qatar will take up) at the moment unless they expand it and I personally don't know if they can.
Airside wise i don't think they would be a problem though they might have to get some more busses to operate to the more remote stands and from what i've read elsewhere Jet2 don't seem to mind bussing their passengers to the aircraft and back and i believe the immigration area maybe being expanded anyway and the baggage area is probably big enough as it is.
Thirdly is how big would Jet2 want to start at CWL. If they were looking to say start a 2 or 3 aircraft base and then grow organically from there then CWL could probably handle that but if they wanted to start with 4 to 5 aircraft then would that be way too much capacity for a small airport like CWL to handle especially with it's current airlines also operating alongside it and I'm sure CWL wouldn't want to damage their operations to the point of them leaving.

I know the chances of Jet2 ever turning up at CWL is slim, probably extremely slim and like many airlines sadly do they may view Bristol as essentially them operating into Wales and they may well just be content to continue expanding BHX and STN and other bases until BRS is less guarded and feels that it's current airlines and Jet2 could coexist but BRS being cautious could give CWL maybe a sliver of hope that Jet2 might take some interest in operating out of the airport in the future depending on how aggressively they want to expand their brand around the rest of the UK.

 

[Aviador]

If you look at the way Jet2 has expanded over the years I'd say it's more likely than not you will see them appear in the South West at some point in the near future. They are clearly aiming to becoming a truly national carrier and each region is slowly appearing on the Jet2 map year by year.

 

[Jerry]

Yeah i suppose the question is where would they base. I'd imagine looking at it from their point of view Bristol would be perfect but if BRS is cautious then would they look at CWL, EXT and NQY together as an alternative. Would be great if they did.

 

[Aviador]

When comparing Bristol and Cardiff airports you might ask is Cardiff airport grossly under-served or does it just have a limited catchment area? I know the Bristol mob will insist it's the latter but passenger numbers were comparable between the two airports prior to the Bristol airport terminal investment. Had that investment happened at Cardiff airport would we have seen Cardiff airport passenger numbers flourish in the way they have at Bristol airport?

 

[Jerry]

I think Cardiff has suffered from a lack of investment and maybe from not having a based airline like Jet2 or like BRS has had Easyjet that hasn't gone bust. BMI had a pretty decent base here and we all know what happened with them and yes there was the economic crash that effected everything but i do wonder if CWL had Jet2 or a BMI that survived and had owners invest into the airport where CWL would be now. It probably wouldn't at the numbers where BRS is but it may well be possible it could be close to the 3 million mark. The welsh government though do seem willing to put the investment in and no doubt will expect a return in the long term, so hopefully CWL will now appear attractive to airlines like Jet2 if not now but in the future.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The Local Yokel recently attended attended a drop in consultation done by Bristol Airport and in post 29 on the Airport Master Plan for the next 30 years-Consultation thread on the Bristol forum, he had a conversation with the Head of Aviation for Bristol Airport. Part of that conversation concerned Jet2 and he posted
''+ I asked about Jet2 and the reply was guarded although I was asked to consider what Jet2 could bring that existing airlines could not, particularly as Jet2 is morphing more and more into a holiday airline and TUI and TCX are continuing to expand at BRS. The airport would like more non-based routes to spread the load throughout the day, which is something that has often been mentioned on F4A in BRS threads.''
If BRS is guarded about Jet2 operating out of the airport then could that be an opportunity for CWL to attract a Jet2 base?
If BRS is off the table for Jet2 for the immediate future then would CWL be an alternative for them if they wanted to expand into South West area? For me there could be 3 problems.
Firstly CWL for Jet2 wouldn't cover the whole South West like BRS would it would essentially cover South Wales and Bristol and maybe overlap the Gloucestershire area with BHX but wouldn't be an alternative for Somerset, Devon and Cornwall. A potential solution for that would be opening up a smaller base at EXT, a 2 or 3 aircraft base at CWL and a 1 or 2 aircraft base at EXT could be a possiblity with aircraft from both bases operating into Newquay on W patterns or via short hops to NQY from those bases. That way the Jet2 holiday brand would have the South West area covered as well as South Wales and Bristol.
Secondly CWL infrustructure itself. From what i've seen at EDI and i'm guessing it's the same at many other of Jet2's airports they seemed to have a very large check in area and part of me wonders within the current check in area whether that could be accomodated at CWL (i believe CWL has maybe 16 check in desks and i don't know how many Qatar will take up) at the moment unless they expand it and I personally don't know if they can.
Airside wise i don't think they would be a problem though they might have to get some more busses to operate to the more remote stands and from what i've read elsewhere Jet2 don't seem to mind bussing their passengers to the aircraft and back and i believe the immigration area maybe being expanded anyway and the baggage area is probably big enough as it is.
Thirdly is how big would Jet2 want to start at CWL. If they were looking to say start a 2 or 3 aircraft base and then grow organically from there then CWL could probably handle that but if they wanted to start with 4 to 5 aircraft then would that be way too much capacity for a small airport like CWL to handle especially with it's current airlines also operating alongside it and I'm sure CWL wouldn't want to damage their operations to the point of them leaving.

I know the chances of Jet2 ever turning up at CWL is slim, probably extremely slim and like many airlines sadly do they may view Bristol as essentially them operating into Wales and they may well just be content to continue expanding BHX and STN and other bases until BRS is less guarded and feels that it's current airlines and Jet2 could coexist but BRS being cautious could give CWL maybe a sliver of hope that Jet2 might take some interest in operating out of the airport in the future depending on how aggressively they want to expand their brand around the rest of the UK.

From what I've been told Jet2 now looks at four aircraft as a minimum complement for a new base. The airline is moving rapidly towards being primarily a holiday airline and would be likely to be competing much more with TUI and TCX at CWL rather than with anyone else.

At the moment the BRS management seems to believe that Jet2 would impact on existing carriers there, mainly I suspect TUI and TCX both of which continue to grow there. CWL hasn't got such a big base with either airline but its core catchment is smaller and with less easy access to secondary catchments. The question really is whether a significant base could sit comfortably with these other airlines. It might be argued that because TUI and TCX don't appear to be growing much at CWL a Jet2 base would not be as intrusive as the BRS management appears to think it would be at its airport.

Even if Jet2 were to open smaller bases would it be realistic to open them at both CWL and EXT? The latter has a smaller catchment than CWL although it has no TCX base and only a one-aircraft TUI base. It's almost entirely reliant on Flybe.

When comparing Bristol and Cardiff airports you might ask is Cardiff airport grossly under-served or does it just have a limited catchment area? I know the Bristol mob will insist it's the latter but passenger numbers were comparable between the two airports prior to the Bristol airport terminal investment. Had that investment happened at Cardiff airport would we have seen Cardiff airport passenger numbers flourish in the way they have at Bristol airport?

I don't think the 'Bristol mob' would necessarily insist that the difference in catchment sizes and composition is the sole reason for the disparity between the two airports' passenger numbers and route networks. I always try to be dispassionate about the issue having been looking at the fortunes of both airports for about 40 years from the time that BRS was a loss-making drain on the city council rate payers (of which I was one) in the 1970s and into the 1980s. I never write about BRS using 'us' or 'we' even though it's my local airport. I look upon myself as a disinterested observer.

BRS does have a considerably larger core catchment than CWL and a generally wealthier one. It is also convenient for much of the CWL catchment and for the EXT catchment as well as the western end of the M4 corridor. The same should apply in reverse in terms of CWL and EXT but, because BRS has the larger core catchment and stands between these two other catchments and can draw from both whereas the other two can only realistically draw from the BRS catchment, airlines tend to look at BRS's greater critical mass and resultant economy of scale as an important factor.

CWL has been underperforming for nearly a decade and it's only since the Welsh Government bought it (still a controversial issue in some quarters) that it has begun to pick up significantly. Its previous owner all but gave up on it and spent the bare minimum to keep it legally open. That, combined with the huge recession, created what is now popularly described as a 'perfect storm' with the airport's fortunes, passenger numbers (reduced by 50%) and airline presence plummeting over a five-year period after its high point of 2007. To add to the perfect storm its neighbour was not only surviving the recession relatively comfortably but then began to grow its passenger number and routes aggressively and consistently.

Incidentally, I don't think it's the case that the new terminal at BRS that opened in 2000 was the major or sole reason for that airport's success. The inadequate original terminal, smaller than CWL's, was a brake on an airport that was already growing steadily before Go/easyJet arrived in 2001, so it was that progress that demanded the need for a bigger terminal rather than a hope that a new terminal in itself would improve passenger numbers.

There is no doubt that the arrival of easyJet after it bought Go was and remains the single most important factor in the BRS success story. BRS had become Go's second base after STN following a Europe-wide trawl of airports carried out anonymously for the airline by consultants. A shortlist was eventually drawn up of consisting of East Midlands, Newcastle, Glasgow/Edinburgh and Bristol, vide Barbara Cassani's (Go's CEO) book, go an airline adventure. She cited the BRS catchment's wealth and propensity to fly as the reason they opted for the airport.

I sometimes wonder what would be the situation now if Go/easyJet had gone to CWL instead or even if BRS had been closed (there were serious and persistent calls for this by some city councillors and others in the 70s and early 80s) by the time these airlines came along. Would Ryanair have set up a base too and would the TUI and TCX presences be larger? Would CWL now be handling over 8 mppa?

It's impossible to answer but given the disparity in catchment sizes and the locations of the two airports it's highly likely that more than half of CWL's 8 million passengers would have to come from outside its core catchment. They would have to attract at least 80% of BRS's existing core catchment annual number of 5 million. That would be a big ask given that BRS has other airports within reach of its core catchment and undoubtedly some of the 5 million would be using those.

In a nutshell most aviation watchers would say that CWL has underperformed over the past decade - for the reasons suggested earlier - and even with its recent success it still has to grow its passenger numbers by 40% (another 600,000) to get back to where it was in 2007 which might suggest there is room for a Jet2-type operation. It's already grown by that percentage since its low point in 2012.

Appendix

For anyone interested in the relative performances of the two airports over the past half century I've set out the annual passenger numbers below - shown in part millions and millions. Asterisks denote the years that CWL carried more passengers than BRS and the figures in red indicate those years when the airports saw a fall in passenger numbers. CWL is shown in the first column after the date. Acknowledgement to the CAA for the figures.

1961 0.069* 0.059
1962 0.075* 0.070
1963 0.093* 0.079
1964 0.104* 0.095
1965 0.112* 0.106
1966 0.139* 0.136
1967 0.136* 0.134
1968 0.130 0.130
1969 0.116 0.120
1970 0.171* 0.152
1971 0.213* 0.201
1972 0.239 0.262
1973 0.284 0.289
1974 0.230* 0.184
1975 0.209* 0.195
1976 0.192 0.205
1977 0.196 0.211
1978 0.234* 0.233
1979 0.254* 0.238
1980 0.261* 0.239
1981 0.294* 0.246
1982 0.360* 0.261
1983 0.383* 0.331
1984 0.429* 0.423
1985 0.387 0.402
1986 0.487* 0.469
1987 0.632 0.645
1988 0.619 0.705
1989 0.696 0.838
1990 0.593 0.774
1991 0.513 0.783
1992 0.653 1.026
1993 0.764 1.112
1994 0.990 1.276
1995 1.025 1.430
1996 1.001 1.394
1997 1.124 1.586
1998 1.230 1.814
1999 1.303 1.966
2000 1.500 2.124
2001 1.524 2.673
2002 1.416 3.415
2003 1.900 3.887
2004 1.873 4.603
2005 1.765 5.199
2006 1.993 5.710
2007 2.094 5.884
2008 1.979 6.229
2009 1.625 5.615
2010 1.398 5.723
2011 1.208 5.768
2012 1.013 5.916
2013 1.057 6.125
2014 1.020 6.333
2015 1.158 6.781
2016 1.344 7.604
2017 to date 1.451 8.207

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Tui operate Boeing 737-800 from Cardiff and have two check-in desks per flight. bmi baby operated the same policy of two desks per flight until aircraft three arrived. They then used 5 desks for 3 flights and utilised common check-in.

In my personal opinion if Jet2 opened a base at Cardiff then it is possible they could simply start with a single aircraft base however a 2nd aircraft base is far from unreasonable to suggest as a starting block.

I certainly wouldn't suggest 4 of 5 aircraft as a starting block as Stansted was launched with 5 aircraft base which has a far larger catchment area.

Jet2 would work well by operating similar routes as they do from their Belfast base. Thomas Cook and Tui are not keen to expand their services at CWL really with very minimal expansion. Jet2 could be the carrier that CWL needs to offer packages to the sun that man have been longing for.

 

[Jerry]

Even if Jet2 were to open smaller bases would it be realistic to open them at both CWL and EXT? The latter has a smaller catchment than CWL although it has no TCX base and only a one-aircraft TUI base. It's almost entirely reliant on Flybe.

If they were to base at CWL and the minimum was 4 aircraft then it could be possible for them to operate a more into EXT using W patterns and same with NQY. One of the problems i see for CWL is that it's main charter holiday airlines have strong operations at BRS and if it's also to grow that side of the operation will need to significantly grow as well which apart from the odd route here and there they don't seem to be interested in doing, so CWL may need to attract Jet2 to get that significant growth.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

BRS aren't interested in Jet2 and vice versa for a number of different reasons that are current. BRS is reaching it's limits hence the new masterplan to aid further expansion. There's a number of restrictions including check-in space, overnight parking and night restrictions.
To put into perspective, a Jet2 737-800 operating 2 outbound and 2 inbound flights per day total just under 276k seats per year. Even with 3 aircraft base that only slightly tops the peak levels at CWL in 2007.
CWL has 25 check-in desks. BRS has 50 and operates at 6x passengers of CWL. It's not about how many desks there are, it's about how the Airlines/handlers use them and when they use them. If Jet2 had 4 aircraft based, it doesn't necessarily mean 8 desks will be required. It could be 6, or 7 because of the volumes.
Lets say QR had 6-8, TUI 4, TCX 3, BE have their 2 self tagging desks, 2 for KL and 7 for Jet2. That's 26 in total, so only 1 short, but again we're not going to be seeing 4 Jet2 aircraft at CWL just yet.
Parking is no problem. During the summer there's only 8 aircraft parked overnight. There's 10 contact stands available, then 15-17 and 4 & 5, so effectively 7 spare stands. There's nothing wrong with immigration or the baggage hall in it's current state.
Bear in mind it coped in 2007 when these aircraft were based (and I stand to be corrected...)
3 (maybe 4) BMI baby
4 TOM & L/H 767 part week
1 MYT
1 FCA
1 KL
1 Highland Airways
And there were a number of non based airlines in and out throughout the day.

As for catchment. CWL has lost out, but it doesn't mean it's not there. Only 31% of BRS passengers come from Cornwall (5%) Dorset (2%) Somerset (10%) and Devon (14%)
South Wales equates to 20%. So South Wales, as a less affluent area, provides more BRS passengers than Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset put together (Source - BRS masterplan report).
If Jet2 has the attraction of a reputable Tour Operator and Airline then it will likely attract people over the bridge to use CWL. If 1.6m Welsh use BRS a year, then I'm sure Jet 2 can support 552k seats out of CWL on a 2 aircraft base. What needs reversing is the automatic assumption that BRS (and others) are cheaper than CWL and it gets discounted in peoples plans. Baby had a good operation at CWL and given the rate of growth of Aviation at the moment it would be interesting to see how they would be operating today had they survived.

Either way, there's still no sniff at what Jet2 will do next. From what I've read they are concentrating on what they currently have and making BHX and STN solid new bases. We continually go around in circles about Jet2 coming to CWL, but we'll just have to wait and see.