Monarch Airlines

[lbaspotter]

Monarch had already decided to increase the Leeds - Tenerife route this coming winter 2017/18 season from 3x weekly to 4x weekly. Well it now looks like they have added a 3rd weekly flight to Malaga. The route was originally on sale for 2x weekly Tuesday and Sunday but a 3rd weekly flight has now been added to operate on Thursdays (Nov 2nd - Jan 4th & Feb 15th - Mar 29th)

So the sole Leeds based Airbus A320 aircraft will now operate upto 11x weekly flights: Alicante (2x), Malaga (x3), Faro (x2) & Tenerife South (x4)

Mondays
MON7504 = LBA 09:30 - TFS 14:10 / MON7505 = TFS 14:55 - LBA 19:30
Tuesdays
MON1236 = LBA 07:00 - ALC 10:50 / MON1237 = ALC 11:40 - LBA 13:40
MON1212 = LBA 14:50 - AGP 18:50 / MON1213 = AGP 19:45 - LBA 21:55
Wednesdays
MON7504 = LBA 09:30 - TFS 14:10 / MON7505 = TFS 15:00 - LBA 19:35
Thursdays
MON1242 = LBA 07:00 - FAO 10:00 / MON1243 = FAO 10:50 - LBA 13:55
MON1212 = LBA 14:55 - AGP 18:55 / MON1213 = AGP 19:45 - LBA 21:55
Fridays
MON7504 = LBA 06:15 - TFS 10:55 / MON7505 = TFS 11:40 - LBA 16:15
MON1236 = LBA 17:15 - ALC 21:05 / MON1237 = ALC 21:50 - LBA 23:50
Saturdays
MON7504 = LBA 08:30 - TFS 13:10 / MON7505 = TFS 14:00 - LBA 18:35
Sundays
MON1212 = LBA 07:00 - AGP 11:00 / MON1213 = AGP 11:50 - LBA 14:00
MON1242 = LBA 15:10 - FAO 18:10 / MON1243 = FAO 19:00 - LBA 22:05

 

[Aviador]

They're working the aircraft well for a winter ops. Good to see them increasing flights to the popular hot-spots.

 

[imagineif]

Monarch has announced that it is planning to re-enter the long haul market and reduce it's short-haul model significantly. The usual suspects will get this new long haul capacity, Manchester, Gatwick & Birmingham.

This has been in planning all year apparently together with KPMG and the initial plan would be to source 3X A330 from Air Tanker.

It has now confirmed outright that it is looking to sell or outsource its short-haul operation or perhaps a joint venture feeder agreement with another airline. Time will tell who that will turn out to be.

Monarch and Greybull are eager to roll out this as soon as possible, ready for the 2018 IATA summer season.

Quite the announcement.

 

[Bigman]

It will be interesting to see how this pans out. It would be even more interesting if this resulted in Jet2 getting hold of brand new 737MAX. One for the techies this... could we get a 737MAX doing Toronto or New York from LBA??

 

[Aviador]

I don't see LBA benefiting from this unless Greybull have a special relationship with Bridgepoint. I think it's more likey we will see Monarch dissappear from LBA. I cincerly hope I'm wrong.

 

[imagineif]

It will be interesting to see how this pans out. It would be even more interesting if this resulted in Jet2 getting hold of brand new 737MAX. One for the techies this... could we get a 737MAX doing Toronto or New York from LBA??

I still think there is some truth in the Jet2/Monarch tie up... just not quite what people imagined it would be. Never say never... it would be a good fit.. Jet2 getting those MAX's and extra capacity.

ETOPS from LBA with the MAX? I haven't seen any Takeoff distance figures yet but I think it will be able to - more so than the A321 NEO.

 

[Jerry]

I don't see LBA benefiting from this unless Greybull have a special relationship with Bridgepoint. I think it's more likey we will see Monarch dissappear from LBA. I cincerly hope I'm wrong.

If it is a joint venture Monarch should still be able to sell flights from LBA they'll just be on Jet2 aircraft and I'd imagine it would be similar for Jet2 for LTN and LGW.

 

[lbaspotter]

Well its definitely going to be an interesting situation to watch. Even more so that Monarch Airlines are currently actively recruiting cabin crew for its LBA base along with its other UK bases. Also after that questionnaire I filled in for them a few weeks back, which asked questions regards both Short Haul and Long Haul routes.

Joint venture Monarch / Jet2
Monarch might continue operate flights from Leeds alongside an even bigger Jet2 programme. Monarch could operate some of Jet2's longer range services that over time will be better suited to the Boeing 737-MAX800's. Also Monarch could possibly take over the xmas New York trips especially if the Max800's have to range to operate New York and Toronto year round from LBA.
Jet2 could take over operating Monarch routes to the likes of Alicante, Malaga, Faro and Tenerife instead of the 2 companies competing against each other.
Meanwhile both compoaines could sell each others offerings so to compliment each other (Eg: Monarch Holidays offer flights using Jet2 or Jet2 sell Long Haul flights been flown by Monarch)

Other Joint ventures
I see EasyJet have also been named as another Joint Venture partner for Monarch. But more interestingly I've read elsewhere that Vueling maybe interested as well...

 

[Tarn Spotter]

I had an email over the week end from Monarch advising of a 100k seat sale at £30 each, interesting just comeing before their ATOL certificate renewal, which they did not have the funds for last year. As flight only deals are no longer covered by Monarch under their ATOL certificate, this years deposit should be considerably less.
Still cant see the value of the company, to anyone, outside the slots, of their short haul business, competitors might as well let it fold and pick up the pieces, especially as all the data last week showed that u.k. personal debt higher then 2008 and we know what happened then, certainly the house price fall in prices last month, shows a very worrying trend.
A wishy washy speach by Mrs May on friday and a rate increase next month could really effect customer confidence.

 

[Jerry]

Vueling! That's interesting. Could make sense if Vueling are looking to redeploy aircraft elsewhere like Italy but don't want to lose out on the UK market.

 

[White Heather]

And yet, despite all of this, I have it on good authority that Thomas Cook have signed up to significantly increase their seat capacity next summer on Monarch flights from LBA. That would be a strange step to take if there was a risk that Monarch wouldn't be around by then. Or could Thomas Cook be an airline that might get involved with Monarch in a big way?

 

[Tarn Spotter]

why would you want to buy Monarch, massive debts!

These are huge, according to their last accounts a loss of £298m on aircraft lease cost until 2022 and £102m on getting these aircraft in a condition for return.
Payload since the calculation of the £298m have decreased widening this figure, having to take on at least £60m a year loss before flying one plane.
The new aircraft we had at LBA were sold off for revenue, something I noted at the time on this forum, was short sighted as they were replaced by older aircraft and looked a move to sell of the family silver and hope the future sorts it self out, it has not.
I cant see the leaseholders being friendly and wiping out their revenue stream

 

[Finger66]

ATOL renewal date fast approaches so let's see if anything becomes clearer then

 

[michael]

Isn't reducing short haul and moving into long(er) haul using air tanker equipment exactly what Thomas Cook did a couple of years ago when they were in financial difficulties to what appears to be great success?

 

[oldendays]

Isn't reducing short haul and moving into long(er) haul using air tanker equipment exactly what Thomas Cook did a couple of years ago when they were in financial difficulties to what appears to be great success?

To some extent, yes. Thomas Cook ready had a long haul fleet of A330s. The AirTanker aircraft that TC have utilised are supplemental rather than fundamental.

 

[Jerry]

Isn't reducing short haul and moving into long(er) haul using air tanker equipment exactly what Thomas Cook did a couple of years ago when they were in financial difficulties to what appears to be great success?

If Monarch do go back to long haul then it will depend what market they choose to operate in that will define their success. If you look at TCX they've mostly concentrated on Manchester operating a lot of low frequency routes and building them up gradually to where they are becoming the dominant long haul airline but they also have the backing of their holiday package division and their cruise package division as an example their new Seattle route has Alaska cruise packages offered on it from all the major cruise companies. Monarch won't really have that so they would have to build that side up while relying on the flight only part but that's not to say they won't make a success of it.

 

[White Heather]

LBA management confirmed today at the Consultative Committee Meeting that for Summer 2018, Monarch are allocating an increased number of seats out of LBA to Thomas Cook, which presumably would assist in filling the aircraft. However, this is clearly all subject to the outcome of Monarch's review of how the airline operates and it is important to note that Monarch have made no official announcement as yet with regard to their plans. LBA are watching and waiting to see what happens like the rest of us but will be ready to do what is necessary to replace lost capacity should the worst happen.

 

[Jerry]

Wouldn't Thomas Cook have to find another carrier? Or operate their own or ACMI aircraft like at CWL?

 

[White Heather]

Yes they would if Monarch stopped operating - either that or they consolidate all bookings back to MAN. It wouldn't be the first time!

 

[Tarn Spotter]

Monarch cant move to long haul until they find someone to pick up their calulated revenue short fall on their existing leased fleet whch when taking all revenue budget forecast until 2022 stands at £60m per year.
Greybull put in £165m last year and now must find £300m over the next 5 years.
Even if Ryanair issues cause a stampede to Monarch, which is very possible, Monarch have advised the city over the next 5 years the cost of refurbishing returning leased aircraft whose lease expires will total over £100m this in addition to the actual lease revenue shortfall costs.
This works out about £3m an aircraft, this sounds a lot of money for a properly maintained aircaft, I accept, seats and sign writing etc will cost, but is there a hidden cost like exceeding the number of contracted flying hours, we dont know about.
Pilots at both Ryanair and Thomas Cook are pressing for better terms and conditions, I am sure this will become a problem for Monarch and other LCC carriers.