Archive Flybe at Cardiff Airport

[TheLocalYokel]

They seem entrenched at EXT with their HQ, engineering and school there. Nevertheless, a tempting offer might lure the HQ away.

 

[Jerry]

I decided to have a look at how Belfast City has been doing since it's gone to up from 7 weekly to 12 weekly which happened in November 2017.
November 5556 +58%
December 5694 +56%
January 4989 +52%
February 5577 +53%
March 6334 +51%
The extra flights do seem to have helped the route to grow roughly by about 50%. The stats for April and beyond will be interesting as the route will have gone all jet by then.

 

[Jerry]

Looks like the base has now gone to 1 E195 and 2 E175s. That should leave Flybe with 4 E195s until early 2020 I'm led to believe. Looks like Cardiff, Newquay, Exeter/Norwich and Southampton each have 1 E195 each with DSA being having 2 E175s.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looks like the base has now gone to 1 E195 and 2 E175s. That should leave Flybe with 4 E195s until early 2020 I'm led to believe. Looks like Cardiff, Newquay, Exeter/Norwich and Southampton each have 1 E195 each with DSA being having 2 E175s.

Will the E195 be used on the routes that need the extra capacity? If so, are there any routes where the E175 might be short on capacity?

 

[Jerry]

Will the E195 be used on the routes that need the extra capacity? If so, are there any routes where the E175 might be short on capacity?

This what the 1 E195 is scheduled to operate in the summer on each day.
Monday
DUB 07.00-09.35
MXP 10.05-15.00
CDG 15.45-19.15
DUB 19.45-22.20
Tuesday
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
FAO 13.55-19.50
DUB 20.20-21.25
Wednesday
DUB 07.00-09.35
FAO 10.05-16.00
EDI 17.55-20.55
Thursday
DUB 07.00-09.35
FAO 10.05-1600
ORK 16.55-19.50
DUB 20.20-22.55
Friday
DUB 07.00-09.35
MXP 10.05-15.00
CDG 15.45-19.15
EDI 19.45-22.45
Saturday
FCO 07.10-13.05
FAO 13.55-19.50
Sunday
CDG 09.45-13.15
DUB 13.45-16.20
FAO 17.00-22.55
Looking at that it does operate 8 out of the 14 Dublin flights, all 5 of the Faro flights, both of the 2 weekly Milan flights, 4 out of 10 of the CDG flights, the Saturday Rome flight so that could suggest that is busier than Tuesday and 1 Cork flight and a couple of EDI and BHD flights through the week.
The only E175 flights that had average LF's over 100 or over 88 i believe were Verona and Paris CDG. With Venice now operated Verona might get diluted a bit and with Paris the frequency has been increased so smaller aircraft might be better.
Summer 2019 will be interesting hopefully Flybe will expand and add another jet and it could then be possible that they may just use the 1 E195 to operate longer routes like Faro and Rome and include newer sun routes as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for that, Jerry. Very interesting.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe released their results this morning. The overall loss went from 6 million last year to about 19.6 million this year. Not good results and some was put down to weather but most was put down to their operations how they are run.I can see a few changes across the board to try and get these losses down.

Ouch! That is not good! Wonder if the failed Stobart bid contributed to that?

 

[Jerry]

From the article i've just highlighted it does look it things are getting better with pre-tax losses lower, more revenue, more passengers and earning more per passenger but things like having to cancel a thousand flights because of the weather and i've no doubt the government not reducing APD don't help but to my untrained financial eye it does look like Flybe are heading in the right direction which can only be good for Cardiff Airport.

Financial highlights

· 6.4% increase in group revenue to £752.6m (2016/17: £707.4m).

· Loss before tax improved to £9.4m (2016/17: restated to £48.5m) including £11.1m of non-cash revaluation gains on USD aircraft loans (2016/17: losses of £13.2m).

· Adjusted loss before tax1 increased to £19.2m (2016/17: £6.7m loss).

· 4.3% increase in EBITDAR2 to £140.0m (2016/17: restated to £134.2m).

· Net assets of £93.1m (31st March 2017: £124.9m restated to include the £28.6m impact of an Embraer E195 onerous lease provision and related impairment of maintenance assets).

· Net debt (which is all asset backed) decreased to £59.1m (31st March 2017: £64.0m).

The company's statement issued this morning reads: "The European aviation market continues to be challenging, with many airlines impacted by excess seat capacity in the short-haul market, a weaker pound, higher fuel prices and both business and consumer uncertainty. Within this market, the Board believes that Flybe offers a differentiated regional business model and has the right strategy to deliver a sustainable profitable future."

Christine Ourmières-Widener, Chief Executive Officer, said: "Flybe has made significant progress during my first full year as CEO. With our fleet size under control, we are already delivering improvements to passenger yield, load factors and revenue. Our Sustainable Business Improvement Plan, launched last year, is enhancing the business in a number of key areas including, network decision-making, revenue management and commercial performance. Profitability has however been impacted by higher maintenance costs, IT investment and the poor weather in the final quarter.

"We now have a new senior management team in place, with greater aviation experience, and we are all focused on delivering the business plan through continued improvements to revenue, a renewed focus on cost reduction and therefore achieving profitability.

"There is growing awareness of the importance of regional air connectivity, not just to the economy and in connecting people, but also in connecting customers to long-haul services with increased interest from legacy carriers. This is shown by the success of our new routes in Heathrow and the growth in our codeshares. Flybe has a unique position in UK connectivity and in its relationship with 9 million UK passengers.

"I look forward to a positive future and would like to thank all Flybe employees for their ongoing support and commitment."
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/losses-for-exeter-airline-flybe-1690234

 

[TheLocalYokel]

From the article i've just highlighted it does look it things are getting better with pre-tax losses lower, more revenue, more passengers and earning more per passenger but things like having to cancel a thousand flights because of the weather and i've no doubt the government not reducing APD don't help but to my untrained financial eye it does look like Flybe are heading in the right direction which can only be good for Cardiff Airport.

Financial highlights

· 6.4% increase in group revenue to £752.6m (2016/17: £707.4m).

· Loss before tax improved to £9.4m (2016/17: restated to £48.5m) including £11.1m of non-cash revaluation gains on USD aircraft loans (2016/17: losses of £13.2m).

· Adjusted loss before tax1 increased to £19.2m (2016/17: £6.7m loss).

· 4.3% increase in EBITDAR2 to £140.0m (2016/17: restated to £134.2m).

· Net assets of £93.1m (31st March 2017: £124.9m restated to include the £28.6m impact of an Embraer E195 onerous lease provision and related impairment of maintenance assets).

· Net debt (which is all asset backed) decreased to £59.1m (31st March 2017: £64.0m).

The company's statement issued this morning reads: "The European aviation market continues to be challenging, with many airlines impacted by excess seat capacity in the short-haul market, a weaker pound, higher fuel prices and both business and consumer uncertainty. Within this market, the Board believes that Flybe offers a differentiated regional business model and has the right strategy to deliver a sustainable profitable future."

Christine Ourmières-Widener, Chief Executive Officer, said: "Flybe has made significant progress during my first full year as CEO. With our fleet size under control, we are already delivering improvements to passenger yield, load factors and revenue. Our Sustainable Business Improvement Plan, launched last year, is enhancing the business in a number of key areas including, network decision-making, revenue management and commercial performance. Profitability has however been impacted by higher maintenance costs, IT investment and the poor weather in the final quarter.

"We now have a new senior management team in place, with greater aviation experience, and we are all focused on delivering the business plan through continued improvements to revenue, a renewed focus on cost reduction and therefore achieving profitability.

"There is growing awareness of the importance of regional air connectivity, not just to the economy and in connecting people, but also in connecting customers to long-haul services with increased interest from legacy carriers. This is shown by the success of our new routes in Heathrow and the growth in our codeshares. Flybe has a unique position in UK connectivity and in its relationship with 9 million UK passengers.

"I look forward to a positive future and would like to thank all Flybe employees for their ongoing support and commitment."
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/losses-for-exeter-airline-flybe-1690234

Flybe shares initally down nearly 10% this morning following the announcement but recovered to a degree during the day to end at just over 4% down.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Summer 2019 Phase 1 to be released soon.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe have released their first phase of spring/summer 2019. I've had a quick look and at the moment Belfast City looks unchanged with the exception of no flights onsale on Saturdays so 11 weekly at the moment, Dublin is 14 weekly, Cork 2 weekly, Faro 4 weekly, Glasgow 5 weekly, Jersey 2 weekly, Milan 2 weekly, Paris 10 weekly, Rome 2 weekly so no change with them, Edinburgh has gone up to 17 weekly with extra flights on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. At the moment Dusseldorf, Berlin, Munich, Verona and Venice aren't onsale.

 

[Sean123]

So likely no 4th based aircraft for next summer then?

 

[Jerry]

So likely no 4th based aircraft for next summer then?

At the moment there is 73 weekly flights onsale even if everything stays the same there should be in my opinion at least another 7 weekly flights to go onsale. Looking at the seat plans for the morning departures in the week at the moment there will be 3 E175s based at Cardiff based on what's released now and personally i think if they are going to announce a 4th aircraft they wouldn't do it this week because of the Masterplan release.

 

[Jerry]

Update
Flybe have released their first phase of spring/summer 2019. I've had a quick look and at the moment Belfast City looks unchanged with the exception of no flights onsale on Saturdays so 11 weekly at the moment, Dublin is 14 weekly, Cork 2 weekly, Faro 4 weekly, Glasgow 5 weekly, Jersey 2 weekly, Milan 2 weekly, Paris 10 weekly, Rome 2 weekly so no change with them, Edinburgh has gone up to 17 weekly with extra flights on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. At the moment Dusseldorf, Berlin, Munich, Verona and Venice are now onsale both 2 weekly.

 

[Jerry]

I had a look at the Flybe utilisation for the based aircraft.
Monday
E175 no 1
BHD 06.10-08.50
CDG 09.40-13.05
CDG 15.40-19.15
DUB 19.45-22.20
E175 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
MUC 10.05-14.50
EDI 15.30-18.30
BHD 19.00-22.05
E175 no 3
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
JER 15.05-17.15
EDI 18.00-21.00
Tuesday
E175 no 1
BHD 06.10-08.50
CDG 09.40-13.05
FAO 13.40-19.35
DUB 20.20-21.25
E175 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
FCO 11.10-17.25
EDI 18.00-21.00
E175 no 3
EDI 07.00-10.00
VCE 11.30-16.50
BHD 19.00-22.05
Wednesday
E175 no 1
BHD 06.10-08.50
CDG 09.40-13.05
VRN 14.10-19.15
EDI 19.45-22.45
E175 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
MXP 10.10-15.00
EDI 15.30-18.30
BHD 19.00-22.05
E175 no 3
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
????????????????
DUB 19.50-22.25
Thursday
E175 no 1
BHD 06.10-08.50
CDG 09.40-13.05
EDI 15.55-18.55
DUB 19.45-22.20
E175 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
FAO 10.10-16.05
BHD 17.05-20.05
ORK 20.35-23.00
E175 no 3
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
DUB 14.35-17.10
EDI 18.00-21.00
Friday
E175 no 1
BHD 06.10-08.50
CDG 09.40-12.55
MUC 14.00-18.45
BHD 19.15-22.05
E175 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
JER 10.25-12.35
????????????????
EDI 16.55-19.55
DUB 20.45-23.20
E175 no 3
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
CDG 15.40-19.15
EDI 19.45-22.45
Saturday
E175 no 1
DUB 06.55-09.30
CDG 10.15-13.35
FAO 14.10-20.05
E175 no 2
FCO 07.00-13.15
VRN 15.25-20.35 MXP 14.35-19.25 for Saturdays in April instead of VRN
E175 no 3
VCE 06.30-11.40
MXP 12.40-17.30 GVA 12.55-17.20 for Saturdays in April
????????????????

EDI non based 11.10-14.15
Sunday
E175 no 1
GLA 08.05-11.25
EDI 11.55-14.55
DUB 15.55-18.50
E175 no 2
CDG 09.20-13.05
DUB 13.40-16.20
FAO 16.55-22.50
E175 no 3
?????????????????
ORK 12.40-15.05
CDG 16.15-19.50
EDI 20.20-23.20

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Update
Flybe have released their first phase of spring/summer 2019. I've had a quick look and at the moment Belfast City looks unchanged with the exception of no flights onsale on Saturdays so 11 weekly at the moment, Dublin is 14 weekly, Cork 2 weekly, Faro 4 weekly, Glasgow 5 weekly, Jersey 2 weekly, Milan 2 weekly, Paris 10 weekly, Rome 2 weekly so no change with them, Edinburgh has gone up to 17 weekly with extra flights on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. At the moment Dusseldorf, Berlin, Munich, Verona and Venice are now onsale both 2 weekly.

With 3 x E175's unless load factors are full then likely be a reduction of passengers capacity

With all the additional flights noted within the update how far away are we from the current levels?

Will Cardiff Airport be lucky enough to entice Flybe to invest in the airport with a fourth aircraft for Summer 2019 to boost what will already be offered by TUI?

 

[Jerry]

By the looks of it there are a few gaps on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays. Looking at them and most of what's missing could fit in those gaps.

 

[superking]

Isnt 1 flybe air frame doing a rotation out of BRS on a Saturday ski flight. Local yokel can confirm if this is correct in what I say.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Isnt 1 flybe air frame doing a rotation out of BRS on a Saturday ski flight. Local yokel can confirm if this is correct in what I say.

It is this summer - to Innsbruck for Inghams Lakes & Mountains, but I don't think it's a CWL-based aircraft (BHX?) The above is for summer 2019.

 

[Jerry]

With 3 x E175's unless load factors are full then likely be a reduction of passengers capacity

With all the additional flights noted within the update how far away are we from the current levels?

Will Cardiff Airport be lucky enough to entice Flybe to invest in the airport with a fourth aircraft for Summer 2019 to boost what will already be offered by TUI?

At the moment it works out at 73 flights a week but that is without the missing BHD flight as this year is 12 weekly and the German flights which come to 5 weekly i believe so with them it would be 79 weekly if i remember correctly this summer is 83 weekly as Faro is 5 weekly and Glasgow 6 weekly and Jersey is 4 weekly.
If there is to be a 4th aircraft then it looks like it'll be operating new routes and maybe frequency increases.

 

[Jerry]

Isnt 1 flybe air frame doing a rotation out of BRS on a Saturday ski flight. Local yokel can confirm if this is correct in what I say.

It is this summer - to Innsbruck for Inghams, but I don't think it's a CWL-based aircraft (BHX?) The above is for summer 2019.

It is a BHX based E175.