Route Development & Rumours

[mullion]

There is quite a lot I don`t agree with there Jet2 didn`t force Monarch off the routes it was Monarchs mis management
countrywide that bought them down
Easyjet would not force Flybe out as their market is not the same and if you look at Manchester the two are both very strong
Cathay which I take it you mean 4 weekly at Dublin again is in a very different position in that there is no other competition in the country
where as BHX has LHR and MAN with a total of 7 a day within a 100 miles

 

[TM3]

I think you missed the point. There is only so much demand for the routes Monarch operated. When Jet2 came in they pushed yields right down so Monarch couldn't make money on those routes. If there was demand Jet2 would be operating the same routes they came in with + the Monarch ones, but they aren't, that's why overall passenger numbers are down.

Any low cost service on Flybe's routes will really damage their ability to fill planes and their yields. I'm going to Berlin in a couple of months and there is twice daily Flybe from BHX and 3 weekly Ryanair from EMA. Flybe £200 Ryanair is £50, ultimately if you can tolerate the lack of convenience why go Flybe? If Ryanair offered that service from BHX Flybe would have to close that route without a doubt.

Re: HKG

There are 80 pax per day already going to Hong Kong as their final destination even with the inconvenience of a transfer. Would this number increase or decrease if there was a direct flight? It must increase.

This is before you consider passengers transiting through HK for other destinations.

I think the LHR/MAN thing is a wrong logic. No-one is driving from the Midlands to Heathrow or Manchester where there is as good a service straight from BHX unless they really like motorways, some of the people already doing this will add to existing passenger numbers. The problem for carriers is however if they start a new service from BHX will it canibalise their existing business at these 2 airports? Who knows if this is a problem for Cathay but they already operate 4 daily 777 from LHR, which is their biggest aircraft so maybe their is no scope for expansion nearby.

 

[Jerry]

Ok i have a compromise! Easyjet buys Flybe and sets up Easyjet Regional operated by Flybe and everyone is happy then!

 

[Ray Finkle]

Athens, Basel, Bilbao, Gibraltar, Lisbon, Seville, Stockholm, Toulouse, Genoa, Marseille, Nice, Olbia, Ostersund and Reykjavik.

All of the above are easyjet routes available from Bristol yet are totally unserved from Birmingham. There are also routes such as Granada, Tivat, Tel Aviv and Mykonos available from MAN. easyjet could also bolster capacity to the likes of Rome, Milan, Berlin etc.

So whilst an easyjet base would definitely see some overlap, it could eventually lead to so many gaps in the network being filled.


Nothing comes without risk though an if Flybe did go even further into withdrawal mode the big danger would be losing important business routes such as Hannover and Stuttgart.

I'm going to Berlin in a couple of months and there is twice daily Flybe from BHX and 3 weekly Ryanair from EMA. Flybe £200 Ryanair is £50, ultimately if you can tolerate the lack of convenience why go Flybe? If Ryanair offered that service from BHX Flybe would have to close that route without a doubt.

It's why I still hear people say they're going to LTN or STN as 'Birmingham is an expensive airport to fly from'.

 

[Coathanger16]

I really don't think easyJet would prove a threat to flybe. As @mullion pointed out they both operate fine from Manchester.

In the case of Berlin, that really isn't a staple flybe route - they only fly there from Birmingham and Cardiff. A single daily easyJet would provide the same if not more seats than flybe.

Most of the European destinations are pretty much covered already from BHX.

I really could not care less if Easyjet come in as they are most likely going to offer the same destinations someone else already has or ones that could possibly be taken by flag carriers in those cities.

I think @Ray Finkle would beg to differ! SAS tried and withdrew from Stockholm. TAP seemingly have no interest in serving BHX from Lisbon. Athens, Gibraltar, Reykjavik are other destinations no longer served that flag carriers aren't interested in serving. Equally there are plenty of other destinations that could really do with a better frequency such as Rome and Venice. Many of the popular sun routes are still down on capacity from last year. Whilst we clearly don't want a return to the 7 or 8 airlines operating these routes that we had last year, there is a gap that easyJet could fill perfectly.

No-one is driving from the Midlands to Heathrow or Manchester where there is as good a service straight from BHX

I would generally agree on routes that have non-stop services from BHX - such as Delhi, Dubai, Doha. But routes such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and many N.American destinations people will readily drive to LHR/MAN for direct flights.

I do think the focus for BHX over the next few years needs to be on securing daily frequencies and getting more based aircraft from the likes of Jet2, TUI, TCX and Ryanair.

 

[Coathanger16]

Athens, Basel, Bilbao, Gibraltar, Lisbon, Seville, Stockholm, Toulouse, Genoa, Marseille, Nice, Olbia, Ostersund and Reykjavik.

All of the above are easyjet routes available from Bristol yet are totally unserved from Birmingham. There are also routes such as Granada, Tivat, Tel Aviv and Mykonos available from MAN. easyjet could also bolster capacity to the likes of Rome, Milan, Berlin etc.

So whilst an easyjet base would definitely see some overlap, it could eventually lead to so many gaps in the network being filled.


Nothing comes without risk though an if Flybe did go even further into withdrawal mode the big danger would be losing important business routes such as Hannover and Stuttgart.



It's why I still hear people say they're going to LTN or STN as 'Birmingham is an expensive airport to fly from'.

I think @Ray Finkle would beg to differ! SAS tried and withdrew from Stockholm. TAP seemingly have no interest in serving BHX from Lisbon. Athens, Gibraltar, Reykjavik are other destinations no longer served that flag carriers aren't interested in serving. Equally there are plenty of other destinations that could really do with a better frequency such as Rome and Venice. Many of the popular sun routes are still down on capacity from last year. Whilst we clearly don't want a return to the 7 or 8 airlines operating these routes that we had last year, there is a gap that easyJet could fill perfectly.

You beat me to it!

 

[thunderchild]

The problem with LIS is that’s becoming increasingly congested and peak time slots are like gold dust.

 

[rollo]

Some contentious points here re easyjet etc here but but its obvious that there are many unserved/underserved routes they could operate with the right support from BHX and as pointed out Flybe seem to cope o.k. against them at MAN and also easy could add capacity on some of the sun routes which are significantly down..
Ive no idea if the American or United New York routes were high yield but would be amazed if that was the case as they wouldn't have both pulled them.
So far as Jet2 bankrupting Monarch they may well have helped knock the final nail in the coffin but remember Monarch had struggled for some years and constantly needed cash injections and the previous year were hours or minutes from closure.

Also worringly Flybe are regularly re arranging the deckchairs and that doesn't usually end well in the mid to longer term.

 

[David_itl]

The likes of easyJet, Ryanair and Jet2 would ordinarily only operate on the thin Flybe route 2 or 3 weekly maximum. So potentially you couldd end up with 4 or 5 weekly 88 seat DHC8 becoming a 2 weekly 189 seater. Nearly the same capacity available if a route is replaced... but you would also open scope for a new 2 or 3 weekly route from the low-cost airline.

For some city break/business destinations, yes, it does seem a bit pointless for an airline to jump in and become the 3rd or 4th airline on that route. You'd actually hope that they might think "Hang on a mo, there's already 2 airlines going to X and ignoring the slightly smaller demand to Y. Let's go to y and get better results than engaging in a price war!".

If you look closely at the article I linked, you can see how that MAN had more capacity lost in terms of seats over the course of the year yet the decline in passenger numbers reported is far less. Yes, you could argue capacity has been back filled but it's not necessarily to the same destinations that Monarch had as other routes have been boosted as it clearly shows a significant number of routes with less capacity.

For whatever reason, BHX seems to have been a much tougher nut to crack in getting capacity back filled but at times, an airport HAS to swallow it's pride and cut deals with the major players; being "nice" to a well established airline at the expense of one that can generate numbers far in excess of the incumbent is slightly bonkers. The deal MAN came up with for Ryanair where as passenger numbers grew, their charges lessened seems to have turned up trumps; I seen no reason why some creativity like that wouldn't be anything but good for BHX.

 

[mullion]

Amazing as it may seem both Easyjet and Ryanair have proved ex Manchester that they create extra traffic
look at Frankfurt as an example LH added to schedule and the pax figures are going up at a staggering rate
Amsterdam 3 carriers, Paris 3 carriers

 

[Coathanger16]

The deal MAN came up with for Ryanair where as passenger numbers grew, their charges lessened seems to have turned up trumps

Sounds like the perfect deal for most airports and airlines tbh!

 

[Ray Finkle]

at times, an airport HAS to swallow it's pride and cut deals with the major players; being "nice" to a well established airline at the expense of one that can generate numbers far in excess of the incumbent is slightly bonkers.

 

[Jerry]

an airport HAS to swallow it's pride and cut deals with the major players; being "nice" to a well established airline at the expense of one that can generate numbers far in excess of the incumbent is slightly bonkers.

Assuming the strategy works. There could be a negative effect in which the established loyal airline gets wiped out and pulls its base and then the glamarous new airline then either leaves themselves or cutbacks on routes and aircraft leaving BHX for the worse. It's a gamble for BHX that could be a massive boost for them or not and maybe they aren't willing to take that gamble on airlines that will always prioritise other airports over them.

 

[mullion]

That`s why chief Execs get paid big money to make the decisions Hmmm! wait. I know BHX hasn`t got one have they yet?

 

[TM3]

MAN is a lot bigger in terms of passengers because it has a geographical advantage over BHX yet Flybe have a slightly smaller operation there and there isn't a lot of overlap between the 2 route-wise.

I used Berlin as an example because I recently booked that one, you could pick any route, but from BHX Berlin is twice daily with Flybe but 3 weekly with Easyjet, (but it's cheaper). Which is better? Both work for me but there isn't room for both to co-exist. At Berlin it doesn't really matter that much because there is no hub there.

For hub destinations there is more scope for growth because of connections but more frequency is required to make it work. Daily connections are really required at the least, shorthaul connections IMO really need 2 flights per day to be competitive.

ARN - I think there is not quite enough traffic for SAS. I think LIS would work for TAP but there is a shortage of slots there so whether they can make more yield out of using that slot to fly elsewhere is also a consideration.

What neither airline will want to do is spent a year or 2 developing the route only to have Easy or Ryan drop 3 flights a week on it and cream off some of the passengers.

It's naive to think big new operators are going to want to come to BHX just to fill in all of the marginal route gaps in the network, they are going to be mostly interested in the established routes that someone else is already flying.

 

[mullion]

I think the difference between BHX and MAN is that the marketing team seem to have been a lot more proactive at MAN

 

[Ray Finkle]

but from BHX Berlin is twice daily with Flybe

Berlin has been cut to once a day. It's just one of a number of Flybe cuts to destinations that also include Milan, Hanover, Stuttgart and Amsterdam.

Flybe have their own issues at the moment so I can't blame them but it doesn't help the Birmingham market, especially with their recent history of adding routes only to chop them a few months later. Maybe the time has come to look elsewhere?

It's naive to think big new operators are going to want to come to BHX just to fill in all of the marginal route gaps in the network, they are going to be mostly interested in the established routes that someone else is already flying.

I'm not sure that anyone thinks easyjet would open a base flying purely to currently unserved routes, there would inevitably be some overlap. The upside is that many of those routes that have been missing for so long would appear eventually, something which is looking highly unlikely at the moment as no current airline is doing anything.

Look at Jet2, extremely successful and growing fast, yet out of their 47 routes available from Birmingham only one is exclusive, one.

Sure easyjet would muscle in on the sun routes and the likes of Amsterdam, Paris, Berlin etc but if it also bought us Athens, Stockholm, Seville, Bilbao, Lisbon, Gibraltar, Olbia....... would it be worth it?

If not where are these routes going to come from?

 

[mullion]

Airlines do ( in most cases ) a large ammount of research before making the leap on a route/base
so I am sure if Easy thought they could make a go of it ( unless there are other issues) they would have by now,
I thought they would have done in the Monarch crash but I now see they had more on their plate with Berlin
as they took a year to sort Manchester out which was already in the planning and expected.

 

[Coathanger16]

Just out of interest, where was the last easyJet base opening in the UK and when was it? Was it Southend?

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think it was Southend.

The easyjet website suggests it opened in March 2012 with 3x A319 initially.