TUi Airways

[Jerry]

Looks like SE-RFX wasn't changed down route as it operated todays TFS. Would be nice if it remains for the rest of the week. Might get a chance to photo it when i get back.

 

[superking]

Looks like SE-RFX wasn't changed down route as it operated todays TFS. Would be nice if it remains for the rest of the week. Might get a chance to photo it when i get back.

It changed down route in TFS earlier in the week.TUI must be short of aircraft to use a aircraft from another part of the group.
I don't know if this was planned or the aircraft that operated to TFS went tech. Just shows how different parts of the group work togeather

 

[Jerry]

It changed down route in TFS earlier in the week.TUI must be short of aircraft to use a aircraft from another part of the group.
I don't know if this was planned or the aircraft that operated to TFS went tech. Just shows how different parts of the group work togeather

I believe all the Nordic aircraft are coming under TUI UK so eventually i imagine it will be repainted and re-registered.

 

[Severn]

This aircraft was operating for TUI fly Nordic until it was taken into Manchester for maintenance and re-registering to TUI Airways at the beginning of December. It was re-registered from SE-RFX to G-TAWY and since the 9th December has been operating out of MAN, LGW, LTN and CWL.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

The aircraft is not being re-registered until later this year.

Image taken on Saturday still has the SE registration.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

https://www.routesonline.com/news/3...19-short-haul-routes-additions-as-of-04jan19/

Jerry,

I noticed that you posted this link on the Glasgow Airport forum earlier today. It lists new routes to be operated by TUI in summer 2019, including some from CWL.

I thought these had been announced some time ago but the BHX TUI thread seems to imply that 'their' new routes have come as news today.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I thought these had been announced some time ago but the BHX TUI thread seems to imply that 'their' new routes have come as news today.

They were definitely announced a while ago. Birmingham actually had three routes announced in the press release but in true TUi fashion only two were ever put on sale (Izmir and Thessaloniki) with Split not making the final cut.

 

[Marko1]

Bristol has new routes too - Thessaloniki for example that’s not listed as new so I would count it as gospel

 

[Jerry]

https://www.routesonline.com/news/3...19-short-haul-routes-additions-as-of-04jan19/

Jerry,

I noticed that you posted this link on the Glasgow Airport forum earlier today. It lists new routes to be operated by TUI in summer 2019, including some from CWL.

I thought these had been announced some time ago but the BHX TUI thread seems to imply that 'their' new routes have come as news today.

Yep the routes have been onsale for a while that post is just confirming aircraft types i believe

 

[CWL94]

It looks like TUI has dropped the Thursday Zante! I’m not sure if it has been replaced with anything else

 

[Severn]

The schedule looks incomplete now, so I suspect more changes to come.
These are the latest updates:

• ZTH has been removed on a Thursday afternoon, leaving.a gap. (Either another route will fill the gap OR out of the three morning rotations to DBV, FAO and ACE, one might be made into a W-pattern to another UK airport meaning that aircraft is utilised all day)

• One aircraft was planned to operate all day Friday - CWL-CFU-BOH-CFU-CWL. It now operates out and back to CFU in the afternoon. (The BOH based aircraft now has to operate the BOH-CFU rotation replacing a NAP flight)

• Given CFU now operates on a Friday afternoon, NBE now moves from Friday afternoon to Friday morning (giving a large gap on one aircraft between 14:00 and 21:00 with no flying)

 

[Jerry]

Will beinteresting to see what they fill it with. I was wondering with the Thursday whether they may take over Verona from Flybe for their own packages and other holiday companies.
With the Friday flight maybe they will pull PMI forward and not operate an overnight flight.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Some time changes from the original schedule:
Tues HER - Now departs 14:30 (Previously 12:45) - 1 aircraft will be sat on the ground for 2hr40min between AM and PM flights
Thu - DBV Now departs 0620 (previously 0600)
- AYT Now departs 1455 (Previously 1355)
ZTH cancelled as per above post
Fri - MAH Now departs 0530 (Previously 0630)
TFS Now departs 1410 (Previously 1340)
PMI Now departs 2100 (Previously 2315)
NBE and CFU swapped as per above post

Previously the schedule worked that the late PMI would be operated on the back of the NBE (now CFU) arrival. But with this time change it will be operated on the back of the aircraft with a large gap in the schedule.
With the MAH time change, one aircraft will arrive back at 1110 and not depart until the 1410 TFS, so 3 hours on the ground, which you don't generally see from TUI. Must be lots of slot changes.

As it stands there's now a gap on a Thursday. The timings of ACE and DLM fit for one aircraft. I can't see DBV being made a W pattern as generally the THU DBV flights have cruise passengers on, and all UK departures to DBV are morning flights. Having 1 afternoon flight would like not make the cruise. That leaves FAO as a possible contender for a W pattern, unless a new route is coming.

On Friday, now that the late PMI has been brought forward, there wouldn't be enough time for a W Pattern NBE or PMI from the morning flight with the 0745 departure, leaving MAH as the possible W pattern contender.

 

[Marko1]

Brs is losing capacity this summer. Perhaps it could help it out.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

That is a possibility, but you could argue that for TUI, they have shifted the capacity to CWL. There may be a loss of 32 seats per flight from BRS, but of those destinations operated at both Airports, CWL is gaining, as is EXT on some routes. Overall, yes BRS is losing capacity, but for the South West and South Wales region combined, TUI is adding capacity.
Without drifting the thread, Interestingly FR and TCX are doing the same, not so much in shifting capacity, but growing it and if FR do well and TCX can fill the extra 40 seats of the A321, that may affect bums on seats of Welsh people using BRS.
If TUI, TCX and FR's growth at CWL doesn't affect their BRS operation then great, but if it does, there could be a reduction in capacity or no growth at BRS in favour of CWL and EXT, which we won't probably start to see until at least 2020. What may happen though is people will choose CWL and EXT over using EZY, and it will be EZY that lose out. Who knows, its too early to tell.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If TUI, TCX and FR's growth at CWL doesn't affect their BRS operation then great, but if it does, there could be a reduction in capacity or no growth at BRS in favour of CWL and EXT, which we won't probably start to see until at least 2020. What may happen though is people will choose CWL and EXT over using EZY, and it will be EZY that lose out. Who knows, its too early to tell.

If BRS does see a reduction in passenger numbers on some of these routes (that's virtually assured on those where 757s are being replaced by 738s in the summer ahead) how do you see the continuing switch of capacity from BRS to CWL being played out in the future? BRS being reduced to 3 summer based aircraft with the current fourth switching to CWL to become the fourth there?

Looking back to 2012 when Vueling began operating to Alicante, Palma and Barcelona, with Malaga beginning in 2014; Ryanair starting Tenerife in 2013 and Faro in 2017; Flybe starting Faro in 2015; Iberia Express commencing Madrid in 2017, the overall numbers on these routes have grown at BRS year on year during that time with four exceptions marked *. Apart from Barcelona and Madrid (solely flown by easyJet at BRS) we don't know how the individual airlines on the other routes fared.

From 2012 to 2017 respectively these were the annual passenger numbers:

Alicante: 244K, 254K, 271K, 313K, 331K
Palma: 257K, 243K*, 273K, 288K, 340K,341K
Barcelona: 136K, 137K, 128K,* 132K*, 152K, 190K
Tenerife: 153K, 158K, 165K, 173K, 200K, 189K*
Malaga: 273K, 275K, 281K, 300K, 337K, 348K
Faro: 219K, 236K, 270K, 273K, 291K, 305K
Madrid: 74K, 77K, 79K, 81K, 102K, 115K

The other Flybe routes have not seen their counterparts at BRS damaged. Most have grown at BRS since Flybe opened its CWL base in 2015, in some cases substantially, whilst one or two cases remain flat.

It will be of interest to look at how CWL's increased TUI and Thomas Cook capacity together with Ryanair's new routes perform and what effect they have on these routes from BRS. This might provide subtle clues to the likelihood of resources being moved after this year. The snag with that of course is that passenger numbers alone don't tell us the full story.

 

[Marko1]

I can’t see TUi reducing aircraft at Bristol to be honest and looking at the new routes at Cardiff either the frequency or capacity on those routes have been increased at Bristol (Dubrovnik , Dalaman and Naples for example) and the only route we lost -Enfidha - has seen tcx take over anyway. Also am I right that a member of the brs management team has connections with tui ?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

It's purely guess work I suppose for now.
The point I was trying to make is that whilst TUI have reduced capacity at BRS, mainly for operational reasons, not demand, but will increase capacity as a whole in the Southwest & South Wales.
FR and TCX haven't reduced capacity at BRS, but will increase capacity in the SW & Wales region.
What effect that will have on BRS, we won't know just yet. It could mean displacement of travellers in the Southwest that would use BHX or London airports, whilst CWL will regain Welsh travellers that use BRS (Or BHX/LON).
There's a lot of change happening in the SW region, the question that can't be answered yet is how long the growth can continue and how many people will switch to the Southwest & Wales airports that are using airports further afield. Many that do use BHX/LON likely do so because of price. With more availability now in the region prices will hopefully come down, stimulating further demand, and hopefully sufficient demand to result in even further growth.

 

[Jerry]

As for the dropped Zante i wonder if they'll fill it with a Faro W pattern including Exeter then releasing their based aircraft to operate one of the routes Norwegian were going to?

As for CWL's expansion if i remember correctly Thomson used to base 3 aircraft at CWL back in the day. I think from TUI it's a measured expansion. Last year they added at BRS a 4th aircraft and this year they've added another aircraft to CWL and planned non based flights to expand EXT. It's possible they may next year expand at BRS either with a 5th 737 or more 787 flights short and long haul. As for a 4th for CWL i don't see that possible for quite a while and it's more likely EXT may see a second based aircraft before then, i'd imagine CWL would seek more winter flights up until then.
As for BRS's passenger numbers they will continue to grow and CWL won't effect that. It might be a case of they would've grown faster if CWL wasn't growing but we'll never know.
Another factor that may well need to be taken into account is how much Easyjet will push Easyjet holidays in the future and how flexible they will be in pushing that side of the business becuase at the moment the likes of TUI and TCX and FR have the ability to operate more locally across the UK and in the case of FR operate non based flights to target certain routes while Easyjet rely on their name to attract passengers to them at select bases so i wonder if they will change that strategy in the long term.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I can’t see TUi reducing aircraft at Bristol to be honest and looking at the new routes at Cardiff either the frequency or capacity on those routes have been increased at Bristol (Dubrovnik , Dalaman and Naples for example) and the only route we lost -Enfidha - has seen tcx take over anyway. Also am I right that a member of the brs management team has connections with tui ?

Janis Kong the airport chairman (her description) has had a number of non-executive directorships in the past one of which was with TUI Travel. Looking through the public profiles of the Leadership Team there is no mention of TUI with any of those.

There still seems a step change this summer with TUI policy at the airports of South West Britain, with CWL in particular enjoying a substantial leg up.

With the two 757s leaving BRS it might have been expected they be replaced by three 738s, even if one of them performed some 'W' routings to other airports. Indeed, just over a year ago in a conversation with a senior member of the BRS management team this was suggested to me as a likely scenario. Instead it seems that the fifth 738 has in effect been switched to CWL. That being so, the path of any future growth at South West Britain airports might now be harder to predict.