Route Development & Rumours

[Ray Finkle]

At the moment I'd be happy for an E190 to Lisbon

 

[Angie88]

Me too Ray!! Really hope we get this for next year

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there all, the only way bhx can see it it can fill either an a380, 777-300 or 787 is to trial it, then bhx we'll see if demand is there or not... Andyc

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Hi there all, the only way bhx can see it it can fill either an a380, 777-300 or 787 is to trial it, then bhx we'll see if demand is there or not... Andyc

Hi Andrew
Sorry, but there is no way that any airline will trial a route 'on a whim'. All airlines are constantly reviewing their bookings and will know where their passengers are booking from and to. They will have the addresses of all passengers and will also know the final destination airport, whether direct or via their hub (they probably don't know the final destination of their passengers - e.g. someone arriving at LHR, but then travelling to, say Norwich). On top of that, airports publish figures showing the busiest routes that are not served directly (i.e. via a hub). We have seen these listed here on F4A for BHX (I think Bangkok and Hong Kong figured highly). Airlines will also look at these figures and compare them with their own data.

The only way that an airline would consider a trial a route 'out of the blue', would be if BHX were to guarantee to underwrite all costs. In that case, BHX may as well form its own airline - that's definitely not part of BHX's business plan.

Kevin

 

[RichL]

How many people that fill those A380's and 787's to the middle east are just connecting though?

You don't really fly to Hong Kong for onward connection abilities.

 

[Jerry]

How many people that fill those A380's and 787's to the middle east are just connecting though?

You don't really fly to Hong Kong for onward connection abilities.

Cathay Pacific do operate a very large hub with onward connections over the Far east and Australasia.

 

[rollo]

We flew via Hong Kong to Sydney and returned via Singapore with three day stopovers each way we used Qantas/BA from Heathrow I don't believe Cathay would offer that option but they certainly have a good network out ot Hong Kong.which wouldn't suite many.

As an aside we looked at Emirates from BHX but they wanted considerably more money and the only stopovers were Dubai and we preferred to experience other countries so bit the bullet and used LHR.

 

[Ray Finkle]

there is no way that any airline will trial a route 'on a whim'.

From what I have read it can take upwards of five years to get a long haul route up and running.

I seem to remember hearing that MAN were talking to Cathay for at least that long over their return and Paul Kehoe said in an interview that it took BHX a similar period of time to get Air India back.

Such routes are a huge financial investment and not something that will be taken lightly.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

How many people that fill those A380's and 787's to the middle east are just connecting though?

You don't really fly to Hong Kong for onward connection abilities.

Hi RichL

Sorry, I was refering to Bangkok and Hong Kong as final desinantions from BHX via hubs such as FRA, DXB etc.

From what I have read it can take upwards of five years to get a long haul route up and running.

I seem to remember hearing that MAN were talking to Cathay for at least that long over their return and Paul Kehoe said in an interview that it took BHX a similar period of time to get Air India back.

Such routes are a huge financial investment and not something that will be taken lightly.

Totally agree! New routes often require new aircraft which often have delivery slots several years ahead. Then more crew are requierd, along with negotiaing handling agents, fuel supplies and all sorts of other logistics.

Kevin

 

[SRDey]

I always get the feeling that with BHX people are in general pessimistic yet as an airport it has some very good long haul routes to the East that from what i see, seem to do well and i'm sure for Cathay this is a temporary downturn, Hong Kong should stabilise politically eventually and i'm sure Cathay will launch BHX or EDI or both eventually. Just might be any plans are put back a year or two.

I agree we need to be a more enthusiastic Airport or just more enthusiastic city in general who and that we support our local as Airport as well the Airlines that use BHX and want local Airport to grow and help make a better more diverse West Midlands. I think that one of the main reasons we attract a lot of Odd Ball Airlines and they either that leave BHX after one day of service or go Bankrupt within the 5 days.

I really do hope we get Cathy soon one we getting/have the HSBC regional HQ & two we have a lot of Students from Hong Kong that come to mainly at The University of Birmingham, Warwick University as well as Coventry University. I know it may take them a while to start a BHX route but I think they will route will defiantly do well as we have wanted for a very long time a region as well as the amount of business that we get from Hong Kong as a whole. I think we need to show CX how much we want this route and how much Birmingham and the wider even West Midlands needs it

 

[Ray Finkle]

I agree we need to be a more enthusiastic Airport

I agree too but it's difficult when you get kicked down so often, especially with a regular flow of one season wonders and so many routes still missing.

We had a few years of big talk surrounding flights to China, which inevitably came to nothing. Every so often we get the likes of Bangkok, Singapore, Mumbai etc dropped into conversations at these route events but they inevitably come to nothing. Earlier this year we had talk of transatlantic with Nick Barton on Midlands Today saying, I believe, that they were close to securing a N. American route, inevitably we've heard nothing.

I'm willing to shout from the rooftops about BHX but they need to give us something to shout about. A third airline on Krakow and competition on an already fragile Vienna isn't going to make the headlines. Or have the last few years seen the bar set a little too high and expectations raised further than they should have been?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Lets see what happens this week !

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Lets see what happens this week !

Kevin

 

[SRDey]

I agree too but it's difficult when you get kicked down so often, especially with a regular flow of one season wonders and so many routes still missing.

We had a few years of big talk surrounding flights to China, which inevitably came to nothing. Every so often we get the likes of Bangkok, Singapore, Mumbai etc dropped into conversations at these route events but they inevitably come to nothing. Early this year we had talk of transatlantic with Nick Barton on Midlands Today saying, I believe, that they were close to securing a N. American route, inevitably we've heard nothing.

I'm willing to shout from the rooftops about BHX but they need to give us something to shout about. A third airline on Krakow and competition on an already fragile Vienna isn't going to make the headlines. Or have the last few years seen the bar set a little too high and expectations raised further than they should have been?

Birmingham will have its time and I think we will become better than any old Heathrow, Manchester & Gatwick in the world. I agree it does hurt it makes you think we aren't really supportive of our local airport compared to people in Manchester who are supportive and use there local Airport no matter what.

China and the rest of East and South East Asia is dream that I think if we show that we want it really badly we will get it. I think before South East Asia and East Asia I think India is the way to go as I always say in the Air India forum we can’t just concentrate on North India (Punjab & Delhi) there are many other places in India for a Mumbai flight Birmingham we need show that we are Bollywood ready we can bring Bollywood to Birmingham and Birmingham to Bollywood so guys learn to dance and speak Hindi and then we are ready (#big fat Bollywood fan here), we also need to start Kolkata (My 2nd home city) which is just like beautiful and you fall in with love it a first sight but it’s been it’s only 19 days till the biggest festival in Kolkata starts Durga Puja which is a 4-5 day religious festival about our Goddess Maa Durga this year it starts on Friday 4th October & finishes on Tuesday 8th October it’s the best time to go to visit Kolkata most Indian Airlines will send there to best fleet to Kolkata during Durga Puja time as well as provide special Bengali meals and outstanding service as I say it’s the best time to go I am dying to go soon and it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity that you will never get to see. We also need to start Bangalore, Chennai and Cohin with all the influx of South Indians that are and have been coming to Birmingham and the wider West Midlands region. Let’s hope we can get New York & Toronto Back I think we can it’s just finding the right airline as well as the perfect aircraft to send without it being to empty or to cramped.

Let’s hope once Lauda starts that can attract start competition for Austrian to start a Vienna route but as you say we should expect too much we should take it a step at a time.

 

[David_itl]

Whilst laudable to say you want Kolkata, Mumbai, Banglaore, Chennai and Cochin featuring on BHX departures the harsh reality is, the EMB145 range isn't that great for most of those routes to prosper. If North Punjab is being targetted it's because that is where most demand for Indian services out of BHX is for.

The Birmingham-India market is finite. Mumbai should next. Then no more Indian routes for a good 3 to 5 years whilst travel to those various other markets increase without affecting either Delhi or Mumbai when a new route is started.

These are the passenger number on scheduled routes in 2018 to/from India.

HEATHROW AHMEDABAD 65910
HEATHROW AMRITSAR 4689
HEATHROW BANGALORE 179321
HEATHROW CHENNAI 136869
HEATHROW DELHI 1021351
HEATHROW HYDERABAD 140459
HEATHROW MUMBAI 1121997
BIRMINGHAM AMRITSAR 76088
BIRMINGHAM DELHI 70715
MANCHESTER GOA 46846
MANCHESTER MUMBAI 15299

As you can see, travel is overwhelmingly to Delhi and Mumbai. That no other route to India goes above 180.000 passengers per year tells you that most UK-India markets are "thin" routes, even to Heathrow with it's abundant connecting possibilities. Unless a revenue guarantee is in place for the thinner routes then the best to hope for is both the Delhi and Amritsar services either gain frequency or get 777s put on the route,

 

[Matt995]

Lets see what happens this week !

finger crossed then Ian, perhaps i should buy a few orange flags for Thursday?

 

[TM3]

I was sure earlier this year that it was only a matter of time before Cathay started BHX but the events in Hong Kong seem to have overtaken that and they've now cut some other services.

I noted with interest that they had cut the tag from Vancouver to JFK as it was unprofitable. That would be a great route to run though BHX as there is untapped demand on all combinations of route there (HKG-JFK/HKG-BHX/BHX-JFK). Due to extensive codeshares with AA it's also got connections on each end.

 

[gulftraveller]

I was sure earlier this year that it was only a matter of time before Cathay started BHX but the events in Hong Kong seem to have overtaken that and they've now cut some other services.

I noted with interest that they had cut the tag from Vancouver to JFK as it was unprofitable. That would be a great route to run though BHX as there is untapped demand on all combinations of route there (HKG-JFK/HKG-BHX/BHX-JFK). Due to extensive codeshares with AA it's also got connections on each end.

If the idea is HKG-JFK-BHX, it would have a flight time of around 23 hours, compared to HKG-LHR at around 12h45. I doubt that would attract many HKG originating pax.

 

[TM3]

Sorry HKG- BHX-JFK.

Based on the mileage it would be a bit less than an hour different to the current route via YVR.

 

[gulftraveller]

Sorry HKG- BHX-JFK.

Based on the mileage it would be a bit less than an hour different to the current route via YVR.

Yes that would make more sense.