Ryanair

[TheLocalYokel]

Comparison with summer 2019 is probably more realistic given the chaos in the industry this summer.

In summer 2019 there were 33 routes. Of those, 21 are currently on sale plus Vienna which did not operate in summer 2019 , namely:

Alicante
Malaga
Palma
Ibiza
Valencia
Seville
Tenerife South
Lanzarote
Las Palmas
Faro
Bucharest
Krakow
Poznan
Warsaw Modlin
Wroclaw
Kaunas
Malta
Milan Malpensa
Beziers
Vienna
Chania
Dublin

Not on sale are the following 12, nor Brest which was supposed to commence in summer 20 but is no longer in the booking engine for BRS:

Rzeszow
Gdansk
Girona
Bergamo
Venice MP
Knock
Budapest
Bergerac
Limoges
Cologne
Bologna
Shannon

Looking at the 'missing' routes in more detail:

Rzeszow - always a popular year-round route with high load factors (not the defining figure of course but gives an idea of the market). Monthly load factors in summer 2019 from May to September respectively were 96, 98, 98, 97, 98. Currently of the UK airports served Rzeszow is on sale for Luton and Stansted but not Bristol, East Midlands or Manchester

Gdansk - the same applies as with Rzeszow with the Gdansk May-September monthly load factors 98, 96, 96, 96, 95. Currently of the UK airports served Gdansk is on sale for Edinburgh, Leeds-Bradford and Stansted but not Bristol, Belfast International, Birmingham, Manchester or Newcastle

Girona - A summer route for BRS usually but I could not establish load factors in summer 2019 as the monthly totals would have given well in excess of 100% load factors which suggests there were more flights than in the timetable. Currently of the UK airports served Girona is on sale for Bournemouth, Luton and Southend but not Bristol, Stansted or Manchester. Girona booking availability has appeared late in the booking engine for BRS in some previous years.

Bergamo - another year-round route with summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors 87, 88, 90, 93, 86. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Belfast International, Edinburgh,Southend, Stansted and Manchester but not Bristol or East Midlands.

Venice Marco Polo - year-round route but unable to establish load factor in summer 2019 because easyJet competes on the route. I thought it was switching back to Treviso but Marco Polo is on sale for this winter. In summer 2021 the only Treviso UK route shown from the Treviso end is Edinburgh although it's still in the booking engine but not on sale at the BRS end. As for Marco Polo next summer only Stansted is on sale of the five UK airports in the booking engine.

Knock - has been operating for many years and in recent times has become year-round despite very modest load factors (for Ryanair) even in summer. Its summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors were 73, 79, 86, 91, 76. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Liverpool, Luton and Stansted but not Bristol or East Midlands.

Budapest - another popular year-round route with summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors 95, 95, 97, 97, 95. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Edinburgh and Stansted but not Bristol, East Midlands or Manchester.

Bergerac - in recent summers Bergerac has been peak summer only at BRS and in summer 2019 operated only in July and August with monthly load factors of 87 and 88. It's currently bookable in summer 2021 at all UK airports (Belfast International, Edinburgh, Southend, Stansted and Manchester) except Bristol. As with Girona it sometimes appears late for booking availability with BRS.

Limoges - has been a summer route for many years but was also tried in winter 18/19 with very limited success as far as loads were concerned. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 90, 93, 92, 96, 87. It's currently bookable in summer 2021 at all UK airports (East Midlands, Leeds-Bradford, Stansted and Manchester) except Bristol.

Cologne - began in 2018 as a mainly 4 x weekly year-round route. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 83, 83, 89, 91, 87. It's been taken out of the booking engine but I think this was known several months ago.

Bologna has been operating summer-only since summer 2014. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 85, 84, 90, 93, 86.

Shannon - returned for two summer seasons in 2018 and 2019 but with dreadful passenger figures: Summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors were 47, 48, 75, 85, 51. This was surprising because Shannon had been one of three BRS routes (Dublin and Girona were the others) prior to the BRS base being set up in autumn 2007 and was carrying close on 100,000 passengers a year with many days in the week being double-daily. It returned in 2018 with a very modest 2 x weekly. Shannon had already been axed for summer 2020.

In conclusion, the 'missing' summer 2021 routes are a mixed bag. If some don't return it will be a major surprise, especially given that some are also currently not bookable to bigger UK airports than BRS.

 

[Marko1]

Looks like Bologna has been dropped - no longer on the app

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looks like Bologna has been dropped - no longer on the app

In the web booking engine (I use an iMac desktop and have no app) Bologna is like Treviso, ie shown in the drop down from the Bristol end but not from the Bologna end.

Because the industry is in such a state of disarray I'm taking any schedules/routes put out by any airline for next summer (as well as this winter) as something they would like to do but might not be able to when the time comes. Conversely, if a magic vaccine is found or the virus quickly fades out as the Spanish Flu one did in 1919 after killing the equivalent of 200 million people in the current world population then airlines might be struggling to find sufficient capacity for the undoubted pent-up demand that would exist next summer.

Addendum (1200 15.10.20)

Ryanair cutting back significantly across its network this winter with some bases closing for the season and others reducing in size for the winter. BRS is not specifically mentioned though.

However, as the airline now intends operating only 40% of its usual winter programme because of a slump in winter bookings all airports and routes will surely be impacted. The airline says it needs to operate with close to a 70% load factor to break even.

Ryanair cuts capacity again amid weak winter bookings - TravelMole

Ryanair will operate just 40% of its winter schedule as it reported a slump in bookings for the final two...

www.travelmole.com

 

[Marko1]

Mxp goes 5 weekly next summer

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Mxp goes 5 weekly next summer

Bergamo (also 'Milan' in 'Ryanair-speak') is still not bookable for next summer. Perhaps this means they are switching all the BRS-Milan flights to Malpensa.

easyJet is currently showing 4 x weekly for MXP next summer. I can't remember what they should have been this summer pre-pandemic.

 

[Severn]

Wed 28 Oct 2020

Ryanair currently have 5x based aircraft at BRS, and have for a while now. Although the base only requires 4x aircraft (similar to BHX and LPL), 5x aircraft are based at each of these airports and the aircraft each operating less.

BRS currently have the following aircraft based:

B738 - EI-DHW (last flew two days ago)
B738 - EI-DYZ (flew today)
B738 - EI-EKG (last flew two days ago)
B738 - EI-EPA (flew today)
B738 - EI-EXD (last flew yesterday)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Comparison with summer 2019 is probably more realistic given the chaos in the industry this summer.

In summer 2019 there were 33 routes. Of those, 21 are currently on sale plus Vienna which did not operate in summer 2019 , namely:

Alicante
Malaga
Palma
Ibiza
Valencia
Seville
Tenerife South
Lanzarote
Las Palmas
Faro
Bucharest
Krakow
Poznan
Warsaw Modlin
Wroclaw
Kaunas
Malta
Milan Malpensa
Beziers
Vienna
Chania
Dublin

Not on sale are the following 12, nor Brest which was supposed to commence in summer 20 but is no longer in the booking engine for BRS:

Rzeszow
Gdansk
Girona
Bergamo
Venice MP
Knock
Budapest
Bergerac
Limoges
Cologne
Bologna
Shannon

Looking at the 'missing' routes in more detail:

Rzeszow - always a popular year-round route with high load factors (not the defining figure of course but gives an idea of the market). Monthly load factors in summer 2019 from May to September respectively were 96, 98, 98, 97, 98. Currently of the UK airports served Rzeszow is on sale for Luton and Stansted but not Bristol, East Midlands or Manchester

Gdansk - the same applies as with Rzeszow with the Gdansk May-September monthly load factors 98, 96, 96, 96, 95. Currently of the UK airports served Gdansk is on sale for Edinburgh, Leeds-Bradford and Stansted but not Bristol, Belfast International, Birmingham, Manchester or Newcastle

Girona - A summer route for BRS usually but I could not establish load factors in summer 2019 as the monthly totals would have given well in excess of 100% load factors which suggests there were more flights than in the timetable. Currently of the UK airports served Girona is on sale for Bournemouth, Luton and Southend but not Bristol, Stansted or Manchester. Girona booking availability has appeared late in the booking engine for BRS in some previous years.

Bergamo - another year-round route with summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors 87, 88, 90, 93, 86. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Belfast International, Edinburgh,Southend, Stansted and Manchester but not Bristol or East Midlands.

Venice Marco Polo - year-round route but unable to establish load factor in summer 2019 because easyJet competes on the route. I thought it was switching back to Treviso but Marco Polo is on sale for this winter. In summer 2021 the only Treviso UK route shown from the Treviso end is Edinburgh although it's still in the booking engine but not on sale at the BRS end. As for Marco Polo next summer only Stansted is on sale of the five UK airports in the booking engine.

Knock - has been operating for many years and in recent times has become year-round despite very modest load factors (for Ryanair) even in summer. Its summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors were 73, 79, 86, 91, 76. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Liverpool, Luton and Stansted but not Bristol or East Midlands.

Budapest - another popular year-round route with summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors 95, 95, 97, 97, 95. Currently of the UK airports served is on sale for Edinburgh and Stansted but not Bristol, East Midlands or Manchester.

Bergerac - in recent summers Bergerac has been peak summer only at BRS and in summer 2019 operated only in July and August with monthly load factors of 87 and 88. It's currently bookable in summer 2021 at all UK airports (Belfast International, Edinburgh, Southend, Stansted and Manchester) except Bristol. As with Girona it sometimes appears late for booking availability with BRS.

Limoges - has been a summer route for many years but was also tried in winter 18/19 with very limited success as far as loads were concerned. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 90, 93, 92, 96, 87. It's currently bookable in summer 2021 at all UK airports (East Midlands, Leeds-Bradford, Stansted and Manchester) except Bristol.

Cologne - began in 2018 as a mainly 4 x weekly year-round route. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 83, 83, 89, 91, 87. It's been taken out of the booking engine but I think this was known several months ago.

Bologna has been operating summer-only since summer 2014. In summer 2019 its monthly May-September load factors were 85, 84, 90, 93, 86.

Shannon - returned for two summer seasons in 2018 and 2019 but with dreadful passenger figures: Summer 2019 monthly May-September load factors were 47, 48, 75, 85, 51. This was surprising because Shannon had been one of three BRS routes (Dublin and Girona were the others) prior to the BRS base being set up in autumn 2007 and was carrying close on 100,000 passengers a year with many days in the week being double-daily. It returned in 2018 with a very modest 2 x weekly. Shannon had already been axed for summer 2020.

In conclusion, the 'missing' summer 2021 routes are a mixed bag. If some don't return it will be a major surprise, especially given that some are also currently not bookable to bigger UK airports than BRS.

Summer 2021

I've been checking next summer's Ryanair web booking engine again (I use a desk top and don't have an app) and nothing seems available for booking at the moment from BRS, not even Dublin.

I had a look at some popular Spanish and Polish destinations out of MAN and the same appears to apply there too. I only did some sampling at MAN so can't be certain there are not some routes available for booking.

Can only assume that either the system is playing up or that a major revision of services for next summer is taking place.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Summer 2021

I've been checking next summer's Ryanair web booking engine again (I use a desk top and don't have an app) and nothing seems available for booking at the moment from BRS, not even Dublin.

I had a look at some popular Spanish and Polish destinations out of MAN and the same appears to apply there too. I only did some sampling at MAN so can't be certain there are not some routes available for booking.

Can only assume that either the system is playing up or that a major revision of services for next summer is taking place.

No BRS flights in the app either !
Maybe they leaving and freeing up the space for another airline ?

 

[Marko1]

They were on the website and app earlier. Must be a glitch. Perhaps they are adding loads of extra flights - we can wish !

 

[TheLocalYokel]

No BRS flights in the app either !
Maybe they leaving and freeing up the space for another airline ?

Nothing in the booking engine for summer 2021 for DUB to STN, MAN, LPL or BHX either. Other than EXT and CWL which are also blank for next summer in the booking engine, that's all I checked after the random MAN samples mentioned in my previous post.

 

[Jerry]

Must be some sort of glitch or update for so much to be missing.

 

[Marko1]

All back on sale again

 

[Marko1]

Knock has been removed from the app - has it gone for good ? I think it was an original route

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Knock has been removed from the app - has it gone for good ? I think it was an original route

Knock is still in the web dropdown list from BRS but no availability shown.

Yes it was one of the original routes when the BRS base opened for winter 2007-2008 with:

Katowice
Wroclaw
Reszow
Poznan
Budapest
Porto
Bratislava
Riga
Dinard
Derry
Bergamo
Salzburg*
Turin*
plus Dublin, Shannon and Girona that had been operating pre-base.

* ski season

 

[Marko1]

Limoges also now disappeared from the app this morning.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Limoges also now disappeared from the app this morning.

There are still a few Ryanair BRS routes not yet bookable for next summer. Can't be anything to do with Jet2 because none of them are in the Jet2 programme apart from Reus, or in any other airline's programme. Reus comes and goes with Ryanair at BRS from year to year and usually not for the full summer season, although ann.aero mentioned Reus at 5 x weekly this coming summer which would be far more than Ryanair has ever operated to there from BRS before. TUI is the only other carrier from BRS to Reus in summer.

If Limoges has been dropped it will have gone from summer-only to year-round to nothing in a year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

anna.aero | Temporarily Unavailable

I've copied this link originally posted today by Ray Finkle in one of the BHX threads.

The linked article summarises the thoughts of Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary speaking today at ACI Europe's annual congress.

He believes that passenger volumes will restore 'reasonably quickly' on short haul and he doesn't think it will take until 2024-2025 to get back to 2019 passenger levels, believing that 2022 is more likely especially if vaccines are found and also if airports are 'progressive' by which he means a willingness to offer Ryanair robust growth incentives.

He put it this way, “Rapid recovery for airports will go to those airport operators who are swift and responsive and which come up with the right traffic growth incentives.”

O'Leary also said his airline has to make allocation decisions for summer 2021 and is in then act of finalising its schedules with 'progressive' airports. He cites Manchester and Stansted as airports that 'get it' and growth for them 'and others like them' is 'probably assured' for next summer.

Nothing new in this from from MoL when it comes to telling airports they have to be good to Ryanair but it might explain why there are still a number of regular BRS routes not yet in the booking engine for summer 2021. I suppose it depends whether Ryanair considers BRS a progressive airports in its interpretation of the word.

 

[Marko1]

Given it’s almost the end of November now there are several destinations still not on sale for next summer including gdansk and Budapest. Surely they are not dropping them ?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Given it’s almost the end of November now there are several destinations still not on sale for next summer including gdansk and Budapest. Surely they are not dropping them ?

Gdansk still not shown as bookable from BRS next summer nor from MAN or BHX at the moment.
Rzeszow still not shown as bookable from BRS next summer nor from MAN or EMA at the moment.
Budapest still not shown as bookable from BRS next summer but the other airports that were not shown as bookable a few weeks ago now are.
Bergamo still not shown as bookable from BRS net summer nor from EMA at the moment.
Girona still not shown as bookable from BRS next summer nor from STN or MAN at the moment.

Looking at the Gdansk route for example, monthly load factors from BRS in summer 2019 May to September were respectively 98%, 96, 96, 96, 95
From Rzeszow 96%, 98, 98, 97, 98
From Budapest 95%, 95,97,97,95
From Bergamo 87%, 88, 90, 93, 86

Whilst load factors are not the defining statistic the load factors on these Polish routes were similar to those on the other Ryanair Polish routes at BRS (Wroclaw, Warsaw Modlin and Poznan) which are in the booking system for next summer as is Krakow that competes with easyJet so I can't establish the FR load factors on that one. Wizz Air operates the Katowice route and that's shown as bookable for next summer too.

Given that the likes of STN and MAN are still awaiting some of these routes to become bookable next summer it might be assumed that Ryanair is still in the process of finalising it summer 2021 programme, something that was mentioned in an article about the airline a week or two ago. Budapest though is the odd one out in that BRS seems the only UK airport not bookable for next summer.

The route that might be doubtful is Bergamo. Its monthly load factors were not as high as the others not yet bookable - still between 86% and 93% but we know Ryanair likes to fill its aircraft to the brim. Given that Malpensa is increasing to 5 x weekly next summer from 2/3 x weekly previously (plus whatever easyJet operates, it's currently shown as 4 x weekly next summer) the 3 x weekly Bergamo might have been switched to MXP to increase FR frequency from there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Further to the above Wiki (not always the most reliable of sources of course) is showing both Budapest and Bergamo ceasing from the end of this winter season.

I'm not surprised about Bergamo given that Malpensa is being increased in almost the same proportion as Bergamo operated (assuming it really is soon to become the past tense). Bergamo was one of the original routes when Ryanair opened its BRS base in 2007 and has operated continuously since then.

Budapest will be a big shock if it is to disappear. It was another of Ryanair's original 2007 routes and lasted until 2010. easyJet had tried it between 2005 and 2006. Ryanair brought back BUD in 2012 and it's been mainly year-round since then with excellent loads as I pointed out with detail in my previous post. We've seen this sort of thing before with Ryanair, with Bratislava ad Riga being two examples of routes that were chopped despite extremely healthy loads month in and month out. You would think that Ryanair's booking algorithms would be able to match high demand in a way that satisfied the airline's yield requirements, if that is the reason for axing BUD - if it has been axed.