Route Development & Rumours

[TM3]

Whether the money the council collects, which is enormous, is spent for the public benefit is up for debate.

I don't believe the council should subsidise flights, (which no-one is saying they are), but I also don't think the airport should be used to prop up the council's finances in the short term. If there is no public benefit interest element of airport ownership of the airport by Birmingham CC they should just sell their share and pay off their debts.

I don't think there is any danger of the airport closing, commerically it's in rude health right now in terms of demand. I do think however that they need to be a lot smarter about pricing where there is high demand like over the summer season. I don't see any reason not to charge airlines more for multiple flights to Tenerife, Majorca etc when there is demand for it, in particular when airlines appear to be passing on those costs to holiday makers for the privilege of travelling through BHX.

Birmingham isn't the only airport that serves the region but it is the best in terms of connections to the city, London and national road and rail networks, really those are the credentials they should be pushing to get flights to the US & Canada etc. not the total number of passengers handled.

Regarding Berlin, Ryanair have pretty extensive portfolio there now covering a number of UK airports so I'm not sure how you qualify that they would otherwise have no interest. Their growth (there) since COVID though has more to with the opening of the new airport, which adds a lot more capacity over the old Schonenfeld/Tegel combo.

In any event that isn't really central to my point, I don't see how the multiple flights to Palma you see on the boards during the school holidays in anyway facilitate these flights, surely they displace some of these (less profitable) routes.

 

[jfy1999]

In any event that isn't really central to my point, I don't see how the multiple flights to Palma you see on the boards during the school holidays in anyway facilitate these flights, surely they displace some of these (less profitable) routes.

if they start with “safe” routes like Palma I don’t see why these should be displacing less profitable routes. Jet2 have kept adding more aircraft to their base every year so that they run Multiple daily flights on more routes while also having more niche routes. It doesn’t have to be either / or.

If the airport were hypothetically to run out of landing slots or parking spaces for based aircraft, then airlines MIGHT choose to drop less profitable routes for extra daily flights on busier routes. Heathrow sees a lot of airlines doing this. But I don’t think we’re anywhere near getting to that point.

 

[nwoody2001]

Whether the money the council collects, which is enormous, is spent for the public benefit is up for debate.

…that sounds like your scepticism of Birmingham City Council competence here is the biggest issue here!

but I also don't think the airport should be used to prop up the council's finances in the short term. If there is no public benefit interest element of airport ownership of the airport by Birmingham CC they should just sell their share and pay off their debts.

…so do you want BCC to be involved or not, or you’re suggesting they should be involved but have no financial benefit?! No idea how you think they would fund their involvement?

I do think however that they need to be a lot smarter about pricing where there is high demand like over the summer season. I don't see any reason not to charge airlines more for multiple flights to Tenerife, Majorca etc when there is demand for it, in particular when airlines appear to be passing on those costs to holiday makers for the privilege of travelling through BHX.

It’s pretty common knowledge that BHX DOES charge airlines more to use peak time slots than off-peak slots. But they are peak times BECAUSE they are the most popular times to travel. However, especially with based aircraft, the first waves of flights will always depart between 6-8am, changing in charges won’t change that.

Birmingham isn't the only airport that serves the region but it is the best in terms of connections to the city, London and national road and rail networks, really those are the credentials they should be pushing to get flights to the US & Canada etc. not the total number of passengers handled.

You are living under a rock if you believe BHX aren’t already doing that! They have been shouting about this and been shouting about it for years!!! Every BHX article releases talks about the airports catchment, proximity to london and even how HS2 will make london accessible in 39 minutes etc. The reality is that most long-haul airlines that serve the UK think they do serve Birmingham Via LHR/MAN… one of the few ways to get their attention is to grow and create a market they want to serve!

In any event that isn't really central to my point, I don't see how the multiple flights to Palma you see on the boards during the school holidays in anyway facilitate these flights, surely they displace some of these (less profitable) routes.

I also don’t see how they do the harm you suggest and displace them.

- bigger airports attract more routes
- smaller airports attract less routes
- growing pax numbers increases market share and stimulates demand

Simple!

 

[TM3]

I don't buy into the notion that airline execs have such a simplistic and myopic view of the industry that they only look for the headline number of passengers carried.

These guys get all the briefings from the airport and they can verify that Birmingham is the UK's second busiest city, sits in a 5m-ish conurbation, has easy road and rail links to London. They can also see that London airports are filling up and that some of them have a distinctly "budget" focussed offering.

They can also read the news, visit the terminal and use it for themselves, not necessarily openly, they can do it covertly to see the "real" sitiuation.

The current experience might be enough to win business from Luton but not from LHR. The idea that a passenger can get a 10 minute trainride from Birmingham or 1 hr 5 from London only to be sent outside to queue for 3 hours is clearly not acceptable.

Airports reach capacity in many ways, I don't see how you can describle the current situation as anything other than the airport operating at more than it's capacity at peak times. Yet I drove around there about 3 hours ago on my way to Solihull and it was quiet oustide.

You say the airport already takes peak times into account, which may be the case but someone is clearly getting their sums wrong here. They are either booking too many flights in the morning or not charging enough for them.

I do get why based aircraft are going to need to start flying as soon as they can - the obvious implication here is there are too many based aircraft. This takes peak capacity that could be used by a full service carrier.

The original business model for LoCos like Ryanair is for them to be based at a secondary airport, typically with a cheap and cheerful basic terminal and fly into first tier city airports like BHX in the cheap unutilised slots at less attractive hours.

Regarding BCC, as a ratepayer I'd be totally happy for them to cash out their stake and pay off their debts. These muppets can't do their day job correctly and I am 100% confident they bring nothing to the table in terms of prudent management of the airport.

 

[Nibbles]

Wouldnt be any use though if (picking someone at random) BA started a new flight out of Birmingham which was wildly popular (JFK?) but find that their flight out of LHR suddenly became unprofitable, would it? Airlines are in the game of figuring out how many people might want to travel to various places from various places and will only ever introduce something if they think it can coexist alongside their existing offering (unless they are looking to refocus said offering).

Having more people flying from an airport like BHX demonstrates to other airlines that there is a latent demand for flights which could then be used to justify a new route - but that wont appear if all of those passengers (for JFK in the above example) would otherwise go down to LHR unless BHX can do something to make it more appealing through lower charges, etc.

Airports absolutely will speculate (as will airlines) on potential routes which may or may not ultimately work, in the same way that a new restaurant might open and try and entice people in with dinner offers and the like. But ultimately if the only way that restaurant can sustain diners is to offer excessively cheap prices its either got to hope something macro happens to help (e.g. disposable income increases, which they have no control over) or they will eventually run out of cash, and close.

 

[JENNYJET]

I have digested the comments above and with a need to resist vomiting. I have previously indicated my opinions upon my upon the ownership model, so shall not repeat them.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Although it sounds as if no firm decisions have been made yet this is from the COO of JetBlue.


When asked whether more U.K. cities like Birmingham, Glasgow, or Manchester could be in contention, he didn’t rule it out: “I think there are other U.K. destinations that are potentially in scope,” alluded Christie.

JetBlue’s plans for fleet and European expansion

Thursday 23 May was an exciting day for Edinburgh and Scotland as JetBlue touched down in the country for the first time after making its way overnight from New York’s JFK.

www.wearefinn.com

 

[Nibbles]

BHX CEO mentioned a few months back that they were hopeful of a US airline soon, pending new aircraft deliveries. This article very much aligns, and is the obvious candidate for a transatlantic route from BHX. We shall see (fingers crossed!)

 

[Paulsstrange]

BHX CEO mentioned a few months back that they were hopeful of a US airline soon, pending new aircraft deliveries. This article very much aligns, and is the obvious candidate for a transatlantic route from BHX. We shall see (fingers crossed!)

Interesting would this be 2025 or more realistically 2026 ?

 

[TM3]

It has been mentioned in the Telegraph that Virgin are looking to expand into other regional airports, BRS has been mentioned along with a return to GLA and BFS.

Virgin Atlantic eyes Gatwick return as it gives up on Heathrow third runway

Airline targets 20pc revenue growth after emerging from Covid’s ‘valley of death’

www.telegraph.co.uk

The article states that Virgin Holidays is instrumental in a lot of flight sales, similar to Jet2 and Jet2 Holidays.
I expect the destination would be Orlando.

Those 3 destinations are not only in smaller conurbations than BHX but also less busy airports in terms of passenger numbers.

Would be interested to know if BHX have put their hat in the ring for this or if they've given up on attracting Virgin full stop.

 

[nwoody2001]

It has been mentioned in the Telegraph that Virgin are looking to expand into other regional airports, BRS has been mentioned along with a return to GLA and BFS.

Virgin Atlantic eyes Gatwick return as it gives up on Heathrow third runway

Airline targets 20pc revenue growth after emerging from Covid’s ‘valley of death’

www.telegraph.co.uk

The article states that Virgin Holidays is instrumental in a lot of flight sales, similar to Jet2 and Jet2 Holidays.
I expect the destination would be Orlando.

Those 3 destinations are not only in smaller conurbations than BHX but also less busy airports in terms of passenger numbers.

Would be interested to know if BHX have put their hat in the ring for this or if they've given up on attracting Virgin full stop.

I think you can be pretty certain that BHX will putting themselves forward. In the airline world, you can never write-off or give up on an airline. It was only 3-4 years ago that Easyjet were considered "not a chance" in hell in having a significant presence at BHX - and now they are one of our fast growing airlines!

Certainly be interesting to see how they evolve with LHR/LGW now pretty much full!

 

[Nibbles]

Interesting would this be 2025 or more realistically 2026 ?

BHX: minor Midlands airport or gateway to the world?

Plane Talk: ‘The biggest challenge to growth at the moment is aircraft availability’, says Nick Barton, chief executive of Birmingham airport

www.independent.co.uk

The last few paras;

"Yet the daily link to New York disappeared years ago. Barton wants to restore regular transatlantic flying.

“The biggest challenge at the moment is aircraft availability,” he says. “The airlines have got the appetite. It’s just a question of getting the right aeroplanes. They start coming online in ’25.”

British Airways won’t be coming back to Birmingham any time soon, I fear, and United may judge its powerful presence at Heathrow to be sufficient without diluting traffic with a Midlands connection. But as congestion increases in southeast England, Birmingham may soon add some valuable transatlantic capacity.

“I spent a week in the United States and Canada just before Christmas,” the Birmingham boss says. While he “wouldn’t want to overpromise at this stage”, he expects to resume services to North America in two or three years. And if the HS2 rail line from London ever gets built, with a station at Birmingham airport, the Midlands could even become a fast track to Manhattan."

 

[Ianbutty]

I think you can be pretty certain that BHX will putting themselves forward. In the airline world, you can never write-off or give up on an airline. It was only 3-4 years ago that Easyjet were considered "not a chance" in hell in having a significant presence at BHX - and now they are one of our fast growing airlines!

Certainly be interesting to see how they evolve with LHR/LGW now pretty much full!

Rather have a US airline, as that means Americans coming over here driving demand than British going over there. City needs the presence that Edinburgh / Scotland certainly does at the moment!

Come on Tom and Tom, drum up some business please.

 

[nwoody2001]

Rather have a US airline, as that means Americans coming over here driving demand than British going over there. City needs the presence that Edinburgh / Scotland certainly does at the moment!

Come on Tom and Tom, drum up some business please.

On that basis alone, it makes sense for a UK based airline. Birmingham is never going to be a destination for inbound tourism, and business travel generally is lower since covid. a USA Route that focuses on outbound traffic would likely be much more successful and viable ion my opinion.

Having a US carrier flying at times that suit US tourists for a city that US tourist have little interest in visiting...?

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Good to see Turkish there 18 weekly flights for the summer.Hope we have this year round

 

[Ray Finkle]

Good to see Turkish there 18 weekly flights for the summer.Hope we have this year round

Four departures to Istanbul yesterday, must be a first

 

[IanFarquharson]

Plus the MNG Cargo to IST, so five flights yesterday, plus 4 Sun Express and a Correndon to Turkey.
Good to see nearly 1,200 pax to/from IST in a single day !

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Hope we will see an increase on Istanbul flights this winter or hopefully PIA will be back

 

[TM3]

On that basis alone, it makes sense for a UK based airline. Birmingham is never going to be a destination for inbound tourism, and business travel generally is lower since covid. a USA Route that focuses on outbound traffic would likely be much more successful and viable ion my opinion.

Having a US carrier flying at times that suit US tourists for a city that US tourist have little interest in visiting...?

I don't agree per-se that Birmingham and the wider Midlands area cannot be marketed to Americans from a tourist perspective but I think this is something airlines are not particularly good at doing, tour operators are maybe a bit better. But realistically no-one is going to market it unless regular scheduled flights are already in place.

US airlines seem to have less appeal to UK based passengers, or perhaps they have less brand awareness, etc to the average Joe. Nevertheless these are more likely to succeed than upstarts like Primera or little known carriers from lesser developed countries like Biman.

Purely from an outbound demand point of view New York I think is a bit complicated, particularly for BHX due to the massive choice and frequency from LHR. One route that appears to work consistently, even in winter, around the UK is Orlando.

 

[Ray Finkle]

It would be nice if somehow tourists could be persuaded to base themselves within the Greater Birmingham area for a few night to explore the likes of Warwick and Stratford-Upon-Avon, rather than on a trip up from London. The Peak District, Cotswolds, Shropshire and even Mid Wales are also within fairly easy reach.

I won't hold my breath.