Cardiff Airport Masterplan

[TheLocalYokel]

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The above screenshot states Cardiff airports aspirations from the Masterplan 2040 but are those aspirations now in tatters with the loss of Thomas Cook and the Flybe base?
With probable loss of over 200,000 passengers a year and 4 based aircraft is the likelihood of a new terminal set out in the Masterplan just a fantasy now?
How will a business that isn't growing and has a lesser chance of attracting airlines now going to attract the investment needed to build a new terminal or should the Welsh government put up the money for a scaled down version?

Aviation, particularly outside the major airports as far as the UK is concerned, is going through one of its rocky patches. Feast and famine seems to have been the hallmark of UK aviation for many years. Court Line and its associated holiday company Clarksons went bust in 1974 digging a huge hole percentage-wise in the passenger numbers of many smaller airports. Laker went the same way in the early 80s as did Air Europe, part of the International Leisure Group, a decade later. The low-cost airline phenomenon has seen casualties along the way - bmi baby (close to CWL's heart), My TravelLite and Debonair are three examples - but the industry has always recovered.

Airlines come and go all the time, although in recent years several have gone west that were particularly important in the UK. It doesn't in itself mean the end of the industry or growth around the country's airports. It might just slow things down a bit.

A new factor is the burgeoning climate change lobby that disproportionately targets aviation. No-one knows how that will play out but it would take a sea change in public opinion across the board to halt the trend of ever-increasing numbers of air passengers, and thus flights.

CWL's owners (the WG) aspire to creating an 'outstanding capital city airport', one that will connect Wales to the world in a sustainable way thus generating significant economic benefit for Wales.

Fine words but what do they actually mean? They could reach 3 mppa-plus if Ryanair set up in a substantial way but that would be mainly a means of taking local people abroad on holiday to spend their money outside the country. Apart from creating a few aviation-related jobs around the airport and its vicinity it would do little to grow the country's economy.

Connecting Wales to the world must include some long-haul scheduled services to complement the existing Qatar route and the hub routes. Any chance of adding to the Qatar route looks long-term from the current perspective.

The aspiration must include a large portfolio of European business routes. They have to find airlines to fly those and for serious connectivity it's no good operating them at just 2/3 x weekly. If they managed it some (FRA for instance) would also double as hub airports. Holiday routes would still play a part but business routes and long-haul scheduled routes must surely be the only way to go if the airport's aspirations are to be met.

Thomas Cook was purely a holiday airline and Flybe's longer term plans are not known. Within the last ten years Flybe left CWL and then came back, as did Ryanair although they left in the mid 'noughties'.

I look at the Thomas Cook and Flybe situation as but temporary glitches along the way. That's not to say that CWL will eventually fulfill its hoped-for destiny (I don't know any more than anyone else does) but things can move quickly in aviation.

 

[Jerry]

The aspiration must include a large portfolio of European business routes. They have to find airlines to fly those and for serious connectivity it's no good operating them at just 2/3 x weekly. If they managed it some (FRA for instance) would also double as hub airports. Holiday routes would still play a part but business routes and long-haul scheduled routes must surely be the only way to go if the airport's aspirations are to be met.

And that is in a way something that concerns me in that to get to where the airport aspires to be which in my opinion is an airport like Edinburgh (not in passenger numbers) where the world connects to Wales they need to attract the hub airlines, but it may be a case of that the world doesn't really want to connect to Wales especially through Cardiff.

Airlines come and go all the time, although in recent years several have gone west that were particularly important in the UK. It doesn't in itself mean the end of the industry or growth around the country's airports. It might just slow things down a bit.

I think the problem for an airport like Cardiff will be that the remaining airlines that it can work with is extremely short now, if the any investment by a potential investor was conditioned on a certain passenger number being reached then it could be any potential new terminal is looking less likely.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

It's 21 years away. A lot can change in 3 months never mind 21 years.
Only CWL knows what's around the corner in the short term.

A new terminal isn't needed for the next few years at least. Focus should be on profits now, not spending. The departure lounge is in a decent shape, money has already been invested in Airbridges, baggage belts, arrivals & immigration, the rest of the terminal will manage as it is.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/uploads/Masterplan%20Report%20FINAL%20JUNE19%20lower_compressed%20%281%29.pdf

I had another look through the master plan, particularly the stated catchment sizes and areas.

The master plan says that CWL has a core catchment within Wales of 2.4 million people and an outer catchment in South West England of 4 million.

Page 23 of the master plan contains a map of the combined catchments.

Wales seems to be considered part of the core catchment only as far north as Aberystwyth and Llangurig with North Wales not even shown as part of the outer catchment, but areas in England outside the South West (eg Leominster and Hereford) are also included.

Oddly, much of South West England as far south-west as Penzance and Lands End is shown as part of the outer catchment but west Wiltshire, including such towns as Trowbridge (Wiltshire's county town) and Swindon that are much closer to CWL than Devon or Cornwall, is left outside what the airport apparently considers to be part of its outer catchment according to its map.

I don't understand the logic of including Devon and Cornwall within the outer catchment but not Wiltshire or Dorset (which includes the affluent Bournemouth/Poole sub region) which are the only two counties in the government region of South West England left out. If the entire South West England government region was included the airport could say its South West England outer catchment amounted to 5.5 million people. Furthermore, if they included North Wales and the already included Herefordshire area the combined catchments would total 9 million.

If they are going to aggrandise the combined catchments size they might as well go the whole way.

 

[Jerry]

Wales seems to be considered part of the core catchment only as far north as Aberystwyth and Llangurig with North Wales not even shown as part of the outer catchment, but areas in England outside the South West (eg Leominster and Hereford) are also included.

Because psychologically that's what many people see Wales as, essentially north of that is by many essentially a different country. If you look at the terminology used it's always North, South, West and Mid. Never North of, West of, South of Wales or Midlands like in England of northern, western or southern Wales. Northern England is always referred to as north England like it's another country. Same with the West of England or western England.
If Cardiff wants to claim that it's the national airport of Wales then it needs to be including northern Wales in its catchment area and distance and driving time wise there is not much difference between Cardiff to Bangor or Cardiff to Lands End.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Because psychologically that's what many people see Wales as, essentially north of that is by many essentially a different country. If you look at the terminology used it's always North, South, West and Mid. Never North of, West of, South of Wales or Midlands like in England of northern, western or southern Wales. Northern England is always referred to as north England like it's another country. Same with the West of England or western England.
If Cardiff wants to claim that it's the national airport of Wales then it needs to be including northern Wales in its catchment area and distance and driving time wise there is not much difference between Cardiff to Bangor or Cardiff to Lands End.

Absolutely right. AA Route Planner shows Bangor-CWL as 197 miles with journey time 4 hours 29 minutes and Lands End-CWL 243 miles with journey time 4 hours 22 minute (a lot of that route is via motorway).

Any idea why Wiltshire (and Dorset for that matter) haven't been included in the CWL outer catchment, at least not on the master plan map? Wiltshire towns such as Swindon and Chippenham are next to the M4 and both have main line railway stations.

 

[Jerry]

Any idea why Wiltshire (and Dorset for that matter) haven't been included in the CWL outer catchment, at least not on the master plan map? Wiltshire towns such as Swindon and Chippenham are next to the M4 and both have main line railway stations.

It is odd that they say Cornwall is but Swindon isn't considering how closer it is especially by train. Only thing I can think of is that the airport doesn't consider it as part of the South West or a border county.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It is odd that they say Cornwall is but Swindon isn't considering how closer it is especially by train. Only thing I can think of is that the airport doesn't consider it as part of the South West or a border county.

Possible but they'd be in a distinct minority. It's certainly a peculiar decision and I'd love to know from the airport why they've done it. It seems entirely counter-productive.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I would say it's more the geography of nearest Airports that influences the catchment, rather than land location. Although there may be some short haul leakage from the Southwest, I think Long Haul (QR) plays a part in the Southwest being a catchment of CWL.
North Wales is much closer to MAN, with most of Mid Wales closer to BHX in terms of accessibility.
Lands End - CWL - 4hr22 (243 miles) // LHR 4hr58 (277 miles) & LGW 5hr24 (302 miles)
Bangor - CWL - 4hr29 (197miles through mid Wales A Roads or 220 through borders/motorway roads) // MAN - 1hr33 (90 miles) // BHX - 2hr49 (156 miles)
Aberystwyth - CWL 2hr34 (112 miles) // BHX - 2h41 (132 miles) // MAN - 2hr37 (126 miles)
Swindon - CWL 1hr31 (85 miles) // BHX 1hr33 (89 miles) // LHR - 1hr19 (67 miles) // LGW - 1hr49 (96 miles)

So to compare the above, North Wales is much easier, quicker and shorter to get to MAN and BHX. There's also a direct train link from North Wales to MAN.
Mid Wales offers options of all 3, with similar driving times, but CWL is closer in terms of road distance. There is a direct train link to BHX.
Swindon is closer to LHR which obviously has a much greater offering of choice, which is why I think CWL doesn't necessarily include that area.
The Southwest is what CWL is fighting for to gain back footfall from BRS, but in terms of long haul offering is quicker to get to than LHR and LGW.
In terms of claiming to be the national Airport of Wales, it's more a marketing ploy than the reality of realistic catchment and accessibility. It is technically the only international Airport in Wales, regardless of it's geographical position. BRS wouldn't be able to claim to be a national Airport serving Wales, but it can claim to have South Wales as part of it's catchment.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Maybe using the statistics they have at their disposal both current and historical and realising where their outer catchment area is.

more offering that Cardiff Airport has it can be argued that their potential catchment could grow as competition can bring fares down which will entice more people.

it had been reported that passengers from Barnsley had been using Qatar at Cardiff.

 

[Cambrian]

Last time I used CWL for a holiday flight to/from Corfu, I met a family from Penzance who told me they always used CWL. They had to pass Exeter and Bristol to get to Cardiff and the bridge toll was still in place then. Go figure.

 

[Jerry]

Last time I used CWL for a holiday flight to/from Corfu, I met a family from Penzance who told me they always used CWL. They had to pass Exeter and Bristol to get to Cardiff and the bridge toll was still in place then. Go figure.

I suppose that when you live somewhere in which you have a decent drive to the nearest airport then people may well be willing to look further afield to travel from an airport for their holiday but Barnsley is surprising!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Last time I used CWL for a holiday flight to/from Corfu, I met a family from Penzance who told me they always used CWL. They had to pass Exeter and Bristol to get to Cardiff and the bridge toll was still in place then. Go figure.

Did they say why?

I know that people sometimes do the less than obvious for a particular reason or reasons.

Probably ten years ago neighbours of ours (we live a 20-minute drive from BRS) used CWL one year for a holiday because there was no availability at BRS on the date they wanted to go. They went to the same villa each year on the Costa del Sol. They were happy with CWL, and being creatures of habit when finding something that suits them used it for several years afterwards only switching to BRS when they changed their holiday destination to somewhere not flown from CWL.

Other neighbours have a grown-up son or daughter (I forget which) and spouse and young children who live in the Cardiff area. When the three generations go on holiday together they invariably use CWL as it's easier for the family as a whole, with an hour or so's car trip each way with young children eliminated by not using BRS.

 

[Qing4theloo]

IMO the Masterplan is so out of date, it's probably time to do a new one. Passenger targets, well 1mppa would be an improvement. As for catchment area, CWL needs to become the airport of choice for South Wales. It clearly isn't when 20% of BRS passengers come from Wales. Access is key: better road access, especially from the West, and direct through trains to Rhoose from Swansea and Newport, not the current once-an-hour, stop-at-every-gatepost service.

 

[Jerry]

IMO the Masterplan is so out of date,

It probably is more ambitious now than it was when published and could do with a review imo.

 

[Jerry]

Should the Cardiff Airport Masterplan 2040 be revised? It was written in 2018 under different circumstances so is it out of date?

Cardiff Airport - Our Airport 2040 – CWL

The official Cardiff Airport website for live flight information, news, airport parking, offers, booking flights & holidays.

cardiff-airport.com

 

[geoff]

It should certainly be reviewed, so much has happened since 2018, CWL lost Thomas Cook, and FlyBE, covid completely shut down the airport on the instruction of the Welsh Government, the airport has never recovered. A more realistic plan should be devised, with the future in mind, and the prospects for future progress.

 

[Jerry]

A more realistic plan should be devised, with the future in mind, and the prospects for future progress.

What would that look like? The basis of the plan was a new passenger terminal to go over the 3 million passenger mark. Is 3 million likely now? So maybe a smaller new terminal? Keep the plan for the new cargo terminal and instead of a 4 start hotel a 3 star maybe? I also wonder if a multi storey car park should be included as well that could then free up land to be used for something else.

 

[Samdorob]

What would that look like? The basis of the plan was a new passenger terminal to go over the 3 million passenger mark. Is 3 million likely now? So maybe a smaller new terminal? Keep the plan for the new cargo terminal and instead of a 4 start hotel a 3 star maybe? I also wonder if a multi storey car park should be included as well that could then free up land to be used for something else.

I would say a new terminal isn’t out of the question, but passenger numbers need to be at a certain level by the end of the decade to warrant that. Perhaps that’s where private investment could come in.

There’s also the issue that Wales might have a different party in power next year. Depending on who that is, the airports access to investment may change dramatically.

 

[Jerry]

I would say a new terminal isn’t out of the question, but passenger numbers need to be at a certain level by the end of the decade to warrant that.

I think a new terminal would probably have to be scaled down. Essentially one that's more of a replacement like for like capacity wise with the current one with the ability to be expanded in the future.

There’s also the issue that Wales might have a different party in power next year. Depending on who that is, the airports access to investment may change dramatically.

There is definitely uncertainty over that at the moment it's Plaid Cymru topping the polls and I don't think they'd do anything to shut Cardiff down but whether they'd keep Labour investment going or come up with their own plans idk. They've produced an economic document of which the basics support creating jobs with Welsh companies which the likes of Caerdav and ECUBE are but transport isn't really mentioned in it and idk if aviation is either as I've not read it yet.
Reform are 2nd and they’ve stated they'll pull the funding but then they'd have the challenge that effectively they'd shut the place down.
Labour obviously have a plan and have suggested that private investment could be sought down the road.
The Tories want to sell it but face the problem that Reform could in that pulling the funding would shut it down not to mention any private investor might well want the investment kept in place as some sort of guarantee.
There's also of course Bristol Airport and whether they'll seek legal action which could potentially shut the airport down.

Definitely a bit of uncertainty! But what is certain is that private investment would be needed and maybe the Welsh government should start that now rather than wait for passenger numbers to get to a certain number.