Route Development & Rumours

[Birmingham Aviation]

Don’t wanna be harsh in words I’m gonna say but we’ve had these specific rumours swirling around a waltzer at a fun fair.Weve had the rumours of Spicejet,Antigua,Islamabad and Cathay Pacific and nothing has happened all has been quiet since.

If we are to get a long haul route it has to be western for me.Start with Toronto first

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Birmingham Aviation, what does Birmingham airport have to do, to convince any larger airlines, like Cathy Pacific, or any other airlines to fly from Birmingham airport. If Glasgow, Edinburgh and Luton can do it, why is Birmingham failing to achieve this.

So there Birmingham Aviation, if Birmingham airports landing fees are clearly available to see, what are Edinburgh airport hiding, that they don't want people to see. Not very transparent are they.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Hi there Birmingham Aviation, what does Birmingham airport have to do, to convince any larger airlines, like Cathy Pacific, or any other airlines to fly from Birmingham airport. If Glasgow, Edinburgh and Luton can do it, why is Birmingham failing to achieve this.

Remembering we have brought back 2 daily EK and Daily AI and daily QR
And a new 3 weekly Saudia to Jeddah all since COVID and also the implementation of wizz routes and a 5 based EasyJet base we’ve not done that bad tbh.However long haul I wanna see it expand to Eastern Asia china for example.The issue you have is staff,State of security and a Tragic terminal.We need China routes back at Birmingham asap

 

[gulftraveller]

Hi there Birmingham Aviation, what does Birmingham airport have to do, to convince any larger airlines, like Cathy Pacific, or any other airlines to fly from Birmingham airport. If Glasgow, Edinburgh and Luton can do it, why is Birmingham failing to achieve this.

So there Birmingham Aviation, if Birmingham airports landing fees are clearly available to see, what are Edinburgh airport hiding, that they don't want people to see. Not very transparent are they.

It is not a case of convincing airlines. Airports can lobby as hard as they wish but airlines already have a plan of where expansion will be. Airports, of course, play a role lobbying and pushing the company over the line, but airports do not decide which airlines they will get. And it certainly is not about landing fees: BHX would not have the likes of Wizz or Ryanair if it were.

 

[Matt995]

Hi there Birmingham Aviation, what does Birmingham airport have to do, to convince any larger airlines, like Cathy Pacific, or any other airlines to fly from Birmingham airport. If Glasgow, Edinburgh and Luton can do it, why is Birmingham failing to achieve this.

So there Birmingham Aviation, if Birmingham airports landing fees are clearly available to see, what are Edinburgh airport hiding, that they don't want people to see. Not very transparent are they.

Remembering we have brought back 2 daily EK and Daily AI and daily QR
And a new 3 weekly Saudia to Jeddah all since COVID and also the implementation of wizz routes and a 5 based EasyJet base we’ve not done that bad tbh.However long haul I wanna see it expand to Eastern Asia china for example.The issue you have is staff,State of security and a Tragic terminal.We need China routes back at Birmingham asap

not quite certain which large airlines Glasgow and Luton have that Birmingham doesnt have? (only Air Transat at Glasgow springs to mind!)

Its not to do with landing fees, slots, terminals, staffing or security, most likely demand, profit or yield, and Birminghams location.

Cathy Pacific fly from Heathrow & Manchester, so a Birmingham flight might dilute the passenger numbers at these airports?

Do we REALLY have enough demand to fly to Hong Kong, China, USA or Canada even currently? Can any airline make a profit on any of these flights realistically? And the other issue is these airlines rely on first class passengers, at a much higher premium, how likely is the Midlands population to use first class? Even Emirates don't do it!!

We should have Jordanian here in 2027 hopefully, and who knows what else could happen, maybe the exchange rate for the GBP pound verses the USA dollar might improve more, making a TA flight more profitable, and thus a more realistic possibility?

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

not quite certain which large airlines Glasgow and Luton have that Birmingham doesnt have? (only Air Transat at Glasgow springs to mind!)

Its not to do with landing fees, slots, terminals, staffing or security, most likely demand, profit or yield, and Birminghams location.

Cathy Pacific fly from Heathrow & Manchester, so a Birmingham flight might dilute the passenger numbers at these airports?

Do we REALLY have enough demand to fly to Hong Kong, China, USA or Canada even currently? Can any airline make a profit on any of these flights realistically? And the other issue is these airlines rely on first class passengers, at a much higher premium, how likely is the Midlands population to use first class? Even Emirates don't do it!!

We should have Jordanian here in 2027 hopefully, and who knows what else could happen, maybe the exchange rate for the GBP pound verses the USA dollar might improve more, making a TA flight more profitable, and thus a more realistic possibility?

But we made profits when Tui did marella cruises to Singapore,Phuket,Goa and loads were decent so what is stopping airlines coming to bhx.

I do hope we have a long haul route next year……Just not Spicejet

 

[IanFarquharson]

But we made profits when Tui did marella cruises to Singapore,Phuket,Goa and loads were decent so what is stopping airlines coming to bhx.

I do hope we have a long haul route next year……Just not Spicejet

Maybe a west bound long haul in S26

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Maybe a west bound long haul in S26

Bet this will NOT happen

 

[andrew.clarkson]

My apologies all, I meant to say, Edinburgh, AA- seasonal - Philadelphia, Delta - seasonal - Atlanta, Boston and JFK, UA- Newark, seasonal - Chicago and Washington Dulles.

So, yet again Birmingham airport is the airport that's losing out, because of dilatation. So while other airports growth and expansion is a bit easier to monitor and maintain, where Birmingham is just dragging its feet and heals along the ground, trying to catch any leftovers that it can scoop up. Now we know why Birmingham airport will never be as big as it should be, because airlines chose not to use the airport, but chose others instead, which helps others expand easier, yet just struggles to cope.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Bet this will NOT happen

We shall see

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Any news on PIA coming back?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Any news on PIA coming back?

Nothing, all gone quiet

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Nothing, all gone quiet

Bit like the Spicejet rumours

 

[IanFarquharson]

Bit like the Spicejet rumours

I have dates, times, flight numbers for SpiceJet

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I have dates, times, flight numbers for SpiceJet

I know u can’t say. However is this 110% happening and if so when should it go on sale

 

[Matt995]

But we made profits when Tui did marella cruises to Singapore,Phuket,Goa and loads were decent so what is stopping airlines coming to bhx.

TUI are charter flights, passengers on holidays, on cruise ships, booked way in advance, completely different to scheduled flights, how do you know TUI made a profit on these flights? they only last one winter season, Goa hasnt been served for years!!

My apologies all, I meant to say, Edinburgh, AA- seasonal - Philadelphia, Delta - seasonal - Atlanta, Boston and JFK, UA- Newark, seasonal - Chicago and Washington Dulles.

So, yet again Birmingham airport is the airport that's losing out, because of dilatation. So while other airports growth and expansion is a bit easier to monitor and maintain, where Birmingham is just dragging its feet and heals along the ground, trying to catch any leftovers that it can scoop up. Now we know why Birmingham airport will never be as big as it should be, because airlines chose not to use the airport, but chose others instead, which helps others expand easier, yet just struggles to cope.

don't forget Edinburgh is a capital city, the main gateway to Scotland, it's totally different to Birmingham, and don't the Scottish Government offer incentives, for these airlines to operate?

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Yes, I know that Matt995, but don't forget that although Birmingham is not a capital city, but has an inner city population of 1,157,603, compared to Edinburgh the capital of Scotland, it's inner city population of 514,900. That's 600,000 plus less than Birminghams inner city population, also remember, what the Scottish devolved government parliament gives in incentives, is far greater than what Birmingham gets us nothing, it's own city council is bankrupt. But even it's majority shareholders can't give any help, because they don't have any funding the five, so Birmingham has always been on its own, without any support for central government, this is why the airport struggles to attract, where others benefit.

So Matt995, until a major player comes and enters the ring and wants to take Birmingham airport forward, where it's current shareholders offer small change, Birmingham airport is always going to lag behind, while others expand and overtake. Then once Birmingham airport is overtaken by Bristol or the next behind Bristol by passenger numbers, it will then drop from 7th to 10th, purely because proper investment is not been properly implemented. Where as Birmingham airport now has only one main terminal, it needs a second terminal to deal with increased passenger numbers, otherwise customers don't want to be in an overcrowded terminal, but in a spacious one, that is where real investment is needed and not pocket money thats been used at present to put a bandaid on it.

This is what Mr Nick Barton was brought in for, so what major big benefits has he achieved since his arrival.

 

[Ray Finkle]

A 100 mile radius around LHR. Taking all emotion out of it if you were an airline looking to mop up the rest of the UK market not covered by London where would you be looking?

Even if the rumoured NY service happens next year it will be competing with an airport that has multiple daily flight options, often at a much lower price and with several different airlines. I still speak to people who use LHR when flying with the likes of EK and QR. When I ask why, sometimes it's the timings, sometimes it's the lower prices and quite often it's just that Heathrow is their default option and they don't even look from anywhere else.

I wonder how many other places around the world with an airport of LHR's stature so close by have numerous daily long haul flights (including an A380)?

I think we also need to remember that route development takes time. Five years of discussions before Jet2 opened their base with a similar amount of time taken to secure the return of Air India.

BHX is doing okay. Could it do better....most definitely but it's going to take time

 

[nwoody2001]

I think actually the more important circle to draw is the 100mile radius around the individual airports to show what BHX is up against....

Right so i have just done some calculations the top 15 UK airports (based on CAA 2024 stats) to see a) how many pax they carry vs b) the proportion of pax they carry across all airports in a 100 mile catchment....

LHR = 83.9m Pax
LHR Catchment = 200.8m pax = 41.77%
Competition: 6 Airports (LGW/STN/LTN/BHX/BRS/LCY)

LGW = 43.2m Pax
LGW Catchment = 177.3m pax = 24.39%
Competition: 4 Airports (LHR/STN/LTN/LCY)

MAN = 30.8m Pax
MAN Catchment = 57.1m pax = 53.95%
Competition: 4 Airports (BHX/LPL/LBA/EMA)

STN = 29.7m Pax
STN Catchment = 194.3m pax = 15.28%
Competition: 6 Airports (LHR/LGW/LTN/BHX/EMA/LCY)

LTN = 16.9m Pax
LTN Catchment = 194.3m pax = 8.72%
Competition: 6 Airports (LHR/LGW/STN/BHX/EMA/LCY)

EDI = 15.8m Pax
EDI Catchment = 29.0m pax = 54.43%
Competition: 2 Airports (GLA/NCL)

BHX = 12.8m Pax
BHX Catchment = 198.2m pax = 6.48%
Competition: 8 Airports (LHR/MAN/STN/LTN/BRS/LPL/LBA/EMA)

BRS = 10.6m Pax
BRS Catchment = 107.7m pax = 9.89%
Competition: 2 Airports (LHR/BHX)

GLA = 8.1m Pax
GLA Catchment = 23.8m pax = 33.8%
Competition: 1 Airports (EDI)

BFS = 6.8m Pax
BFS Catchment = 6.8m pax = 100.00%
Competition: 0 Airports

NCL = 5.1m Pax
NCL Catchment = 25.1m pax = 20.45%
Competition: 2 Airports (EDI/LBA)

LPL = 5.1m Pax
LPL Catchment = 57.1m pax = 8.89%
Competition: 4 Airports (MAN/BHX/LBA/EMA)

LBA = 4.2m Pax
LBA Catchment = 62.2m pax = 6.79%
Competition: 5 Airports (MAN/BHX/LPL/NCL/EMA)

EMA = 4.1m Pax
EMA Catchment = 103.7m pax = 3.99%
Competition: 6 Airports (MAN/STN/LTN/BHX/LPL/LBA)

LCY = 3.6m Pax
LCY Catchment = 177.4m pax = 2.01%
Competition: 4 Airports (LHR/LGW/STN/LTN)

So I hope this shows the reality of the situation BHX will always need to battle against... Yes there is a high population located within 100 miles of BHX, but the population in that 100 mile radius has more options to choose from than many other airports - 8 other airports out of the top 15 airports in the UK. No other airport in the UK has this much competition! There are currently nearly 200m passengers flying out of airports within that 100 mile catchment. Only 6.48% are flying out of BHX with over 93.5% of passengers flying from other airports within 100 miles of the airport...

Only two other airports have this problem worse than we do... EMA and LCY!!!

 

[Severn]

I think actually the more important circle to draw is the 100mile radius around the individual airports to show what BHX is up against....

Right so i have just done some calculations the top 15 UK airports (based on CAA 2024 stats) to see a) how many pax they carry vs b) the proportion of pax they carry across all airports in a 100 mile catchment....

LHR = 83.9m Pax
LHR Catchment = 200.8m pax = 41.77%

LGW = 43.2m Pax
LGW Catchment = 177.3m pax = 24.39%

MAN = 30.8m Pax
MAN Catchment = 57.1m pax = 53.95%

STN = 29.7m Pax
STN Catchment = 194.3m pax = 15.28%

LTN = 16.9m Pax
LTN Catchment = 194.3m pax = 8.72%

EDI = 15.8m Pax
EDI Catchment = 29.0m pax = 54.43%

BHX = 12.8m Pax
BHX Catchment = 198.2m pax = 6.48%

BRS = 10.6m Pax
BRS Catchment = 107.7m pax = 9.89%

GLA = 8.1m Pax
GLA Catchment = 23.8m pax = 33.8%

BFS = 6.8m Pax
BFS Catchment = 6.8m pax = 100.00%

NCL = 5.1m Pax
NCL Catchment = 25.1m pax = 20.45%

LPL = 5.1m Pax
LPL Catchment = 57.1m pax = 8.89%

LBA = 4.2m Pax
LBA Catchment = 62.2m pax = 6.79%

EMA = 4.1m Pax
EMA Catchment = 103.7m pax = 3.99%

LCY = 3.6m Pax
LCY Catchment = 177.4m pax = 2.01%

So i hope this shows the reality of the situation BHX will always need to battle against... Yes there is a high population located wihtin 100 miles of BHX, but the population in that 100 mile radius has more options to choose from than many other airports. There are currently nearly 200m passengers flying out of airports within that 100 mile catchment. Only 6.48% are flying out of BHX with over 93.5% of passangers flying from other airports within 100 miles of the airport...

only two other arports have this problem worse than we do... EMA and LCY!!!

Great data, thank you @nwoody2001

One thing to think about when using your list above is the number of other airport options available to those people living in the 100-mile radius. Given BHX is very central, it means anyone living around Birmingham has options of London airports to the South and MAN/LPL to the North.

Living in Bristol, BRS is the closest and most obvious choice of airport. However there’s then only BHX and LHR in the 100-mile radius to otherwise choose from.

For all those living in the large urban areas to the North and West of London, and also the likes of Cambridge, Reading, Oxford; even though BHX is within their 100-mile radius it’s now further down their list as LHR, LGW, STN & LTN would be closer.

Birmingham probably has the most “competitors” in its 100-mile radius than any other major UK airport, so given that reason, it’s doing really well for itself! All 4 low-cost/holiday airlines, the major European legacy carriers, plus a host of Middle East airlines. Certainly as someone living in the South-West it’s just as useful as any of the London airports to me.