Flybe

[TheLocalYokel]

An E175 would be more suited for the German routes and Cork and CDG but the E195 would be needed for Faro, Milan and hopefully Rome. 1 of each would be a good mix unless they based 3 E175s and increased frequencies on some of the routes.

I presume that 195 pilots and cabin crew are also typed for the 175 which would make one of each at CWL a good mix.

 

[Jerry]

I presume that 195 pilots and cabin crew are also typed for the 175 which would make one of each at CWL a good mix.

Yes it is a pity that Flybe's E175s aren't LCY compatible as it would save them the hassle of rotating Q400 crews from Belfast.

 

[CraigW92]

The Saturday Jersey flight is now bookable :

01-Apr-17 - 06-May-17
BE275 JER 13:10 - CWL 14:05
BE276 CWL 14:50 - JER 14:45

13-May-17 - 20-May-17
BE275 JER 12:00 - CWL 12:55
BE276 CWL 13:40 - JER 14:35

27-May-17 - 30-Sep-17
BE275 JER 09:30 - CWL 10:25
BE276 CWL 11:10 - JER 12:05

Flights operated operated on a Dash 8

 

[Jerry]

Only LCY and DUS left for them to announce. Oh and the ORK tuesday rotation after June!

 

[Jerry]

There is a possibility that Cardiff could still get some more new routes from Flybe for summer 2017. I tweeted them and asked if DUS was operating next year and the first reply was 'we won't be operating this route directly I'm afraid' and then after about an hour I got another reply from Flybe 'I have just received new information! We are planning to introduce new routes out of Cardiff, which could include Dusseldorf. We are currently still finalising these, they will be released in the new year'.
Whether Flybe would consider LCY as 'new' (it could be classed as such for summer 2017) or they have back up routes as a just in case i honestly don't know (my best guess would be 2 daily MAN) but I do know there is a gap in the Q400's schedule on Sunday morning as BHD is a 10.40 departure and it could be possible any new routes could be with non based aircraft. Guess we'll find out in the new year!

 

[Jerry]

Yesterday on way back from CDG i flew via LCY because i missed the direct CWL flight so i got to fly on the LCY-CWL flight it was a quick flight it didn't take more than 40 mins and the crew were really good but there was only 18 people on board and 2 of us were diverts from the Paris flight and only about 4 on the flight bought any food and drink. Hopefully this was just a quiet flight and not the normal load factor but I did notice in CDG that only about 20 passengers came off from the LCY-CDG flight.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January is usually the quietest month for air travel in the UK.

 

[Jerry]

I noticed today on the arrivals board that Finnair is now codesharing on the Flybe CDG flight.
CWL-CDG is AY6714 and CDG-CWL AY6707 and CWL does appear in the drop down on the Finnair website as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wonder how many codeshares Flybe now has, not just from CWL.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe November 2016 stats
Belfast City 3518
London City 2702
Edinburgh 7481
Glasgow 2516
Jersey 730
Paris CDG 4146
Berlin 984
Munich 1039
Cork 862
Dublin 6850
Milan 1309
Faro 1001

 

[Severn]

Some pretty shocking loadfactors for Nov 16 with flybe, with only 5/12 routes operating with a load factor above 50%...

Oct 16: London City - 3941 - LF 46%
Nov 16: London City - 2702 - LF 33% (31% if you count that 22x flights were operated by larger RJ85s)

Oct 16: Belfast City - 3897 - LF 81%
Nov 16: Belfast City - 3518 - LF 71%

Oct 16: Edinburgh - 8172 - LF 64%
Nov 16: Edinburgh - 7481 - LF 60%

Oct 16: Glasgow - 3407 - LF 55%
Nov 16: Glasgow - 2516 - LF 41%

Oct 16: Jersey - 1526 - LF 47%
Nov 16: Jersey - 730 - LF 39%

Oct 16: Paris CDG - 4361 - LF 59%
Nov 16: Paris CDG - 4146 - LF 58%

Oct 16: Berlin TXL - 763 - LF 36%
Nov 16: Berlin TXL - 984 - LF 46%

Oct 16: Dusseldorf - 489 -LF 63%

Oct 16: Munich - 1531 - LF 36%
Nov 16: Munich - 1039 - LF 37%

Oct 16: Cork - 1131 - LF 53%
Nov 16: Cork - 862 - LF 46%

Oct 16: Dublin - 9164 - (flown by 2 airlines)
Nov 16: Dublin - 6850 - LF 56% (only flybe now flying this route)

Oct 16: Milan - 2196 - LF 52%
Nov 16: Milan - 1309 - LF 32%

Oct 16: Faro - 3298 - LF 78%
Nov 16: Faro - 1001 - LF 32%-35% (one flight operated from EXT)

 

[superking]

the DH8 and E170 has been used at various times on some of the routes,and some doing a split load with other airports.

 

[Aviador]

Although still worth a look, load factors aren't as important as they used to be. It's the more important yield that matters and those figures won't be published and in the public domain.

 

[Severn]

the DH8 and E170 has been used at various times on some of the routes,and some doing a split load with other airports.

I am well aware of the different types of aircraft used which is why I used the logs to work out exactly which flights operated and on which type of aircraft. Therefore the LF should be very accurate, unless I've done some silly maths errors.

 

[superking]

on the 4 seta of load factors you quoted I had toask and make a comment on them. I have seen posters on other forums shot to bits with l/f quoted and just because different airplanes were used on some rotations and some rotations were cancelled.with you done the homework on the load factors you quoted I will say you done a good job,as I know things like that take time so well done.i had to say what I did as 1 piece of inbfo totally puts every thing out. so a good job done and well done. nice to have time to do things like that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Although still worth a look, load factors aren't as important as they used to be. It's the more important yield that matters and those figures won't be published and in the public domain.

Indeed. Flybe is probably happy at CWL at the moment as it seems common knowledge that they've had an exceptionally good deal from the CWL owners. Summer loads are better, as one would expect, with some very good and some not so good.

Flybe fares aren't extortionate from CWL so the yield would have to come from a combination of (at least) reasonable loads and an acceptable agreement (especially for the airline) with the airport.

Looking at Flybe's Annual Report for 2015/2016 their average load factor was 72.6% but this is a year-round average and is no doubt a bit higher in summer and a bit lower in winter. I can't see Flybe ever attaining a load factor in the easyJet/Ryanair league - low 90s% in the past year for both.

 

[Jerry]

Some pretty shocking loadfactors for Nov 16 with flybe,

Yes compared to the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair maybe but November is a quiet month and as well during the month there is the autumn internationals so people are staying home more to watch the rugby rather than spend that money on a trip away. What's interesting is that AMS hasn't really dropped by much so that could mean that it is benefiting from Aer Lingus pulling out and that Flybe's traffic is just the point 2 point traffic mostly. I'd suggest package holidays to Faro would tail off this time of year as well. It will be interesting to see if the German routes pick up for the xmas markets.

 

[Jerry]

Indeed. Flybe is probably happy at CWL at the moment as it seems common knowledge that they've had an exceptionally good deal from the CWL owners. Summer loads are better, as one would expect, with some very good and some not so good

They do seem to be confident enough to base another plane for next summer so that could be a good sign for CWL. Obviously no one knows what will happen in 2017 and whether Cardiff will get new airlines and new routes for winter 2017/2018 and summer 2018 but i'm wondering if CWL could get Flybe to base another Embraer (even if that Embraer was seasonal) then maybe Flybe could introduce more sun routes themselves like LPA or IBZ or MLA especially if other airlines aren't interested and maybe even introduce KEF and link up with Icelandair like they will be doing at BHD. At the moment though they do seem to be their for the long term.

 

[superking]

I don't think faro will drop off much as it sort of goes from a sun route to a golf route, lots of golf played out there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thought from the outset that the E195 was too big for many of the routes but the deal struck with CWL probably meant that Flybe could use the type successfully from CWL with support from the CWL owners. It looked as though they were going to be stuck with the 'white elephant' 195 for a while until CWL and DSA came along and offered a lifeline.

If Flybe was using smaller Embraers or the Q400 on its routes from CWL these load factors would not be at all bad, although as we keep reminding ourselves it's the yield that counts and only the airline will know that.