Ryanair

[Jerry]

I don't know why but earlier on the Faro and TFS routes weren't bookable but now they are but nothing seems to have changed. Glitch?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ryanair TFS 2016 July passenger numbers were 1385.

91.6% load factor, assuming all four rotations operated.

 

[Jerry]

91.6% load factor, assuming all four rotations operated.

Yeah i'd be surprised if it was less than 90% and as they are continuing next year then they must be happy with the yield. Though i'm guessing that on a flight like they'd make a bit money on the food and drink side?

 

[superking]

wondered do they still do raffle tickets.??

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yeah i'd be surprised if it was less than 90% and as they are continuing next year then they must be happy with the yield. Though i'm guessing that on a flight like they'd make a bit money on the food and drink side?

Probably - it's the sort of flight where people would be likely to spend on such things. It might be a contributory factor when Ryanair axed such flights as Bristol-Bratislava despite monthly load factors well into the 90s%. Central/Eastern European flights, not just with Ryanair, are said to be poor with regards to on-board spend.

 

[Jerry]

I saw a comment on a facebook page earlier on today and the poster said that Ryanair may be looking to base at CWL in 2018. Whether this info is correct or not (as personally i have my doubts CWL will ever see a Ryanair base) it made me wonder what routes in the summer and winter they could possibly fly from Cardiff IF they based aircraft. I'm guessing Tenerife and Faro would remain as they are as non based routes and that they any based aircraft would fly Alicante, Malaga and PMI and maybe Girona but they would need other routes as well. Italy and Germany are covered by Flybe at the moment but i'm wondering if or when Flybe goes over to a Q400 base then could Ryanair takeover those routes and maybe add Eastern Europe to fill out the flight schedule of say 2 or 3 based aircraft? That would then leave Ryanair as CWL's low cost airline flying all over europe and Flybe as CWL's domestic and hub connecting airline. Does anyone think this could be a possible future for CWL?
Edit: the comment is on a facebook group i frequent and is a reply to a link about Ryanair and CWL and mentions a rumour about a base from 2018. Whether that rumour has truth to it or not i honestly don't know.

 

[Tinkerman]

Got the link ? Can't see it happening myself. But as we have learnt in recent years, anything is possible !

 

[Jerry]

Got the link ? Can't see it happening myself. But as we have learnt in recent years, anything is possible !

Sorry i can't find the link. I'll keep looking and post it if i find it.

 

[Em0866]

Rumours are just that. For what it's worth I think any plans on expansion by any airline would first be announced by the airline, airport or the combination of both. We'll have to wait and see as 2018 is a long way off in the airline industry

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I saw a comment on a Social Media page earlier on today and the poster said that Ryanair may be looking to base at CWL in 2018. Whether this info is correct or not (as personally i have my doubts CWL will ever see a Ryanair base) it made me wonder what routes in the summer and winter they could possibly fly from Cardiff IF they based aircraft. I'm guessing Tenerife and Faro would remain as they are as non based routes and that they any based aircraft would fly Alicante, Malaga and PMI and maybe Girona but they would need other routes as well. Italy and Germany are covered by Flybe at the moment but i'm wondering if or when Flybe goes over to a Q400 base then could Ryanair takeover those routes and maybe add Eastern Europe to fill out the flight schedule of say 2 or 3 based aircraft? That would then leave Ryanair as CWL's low cost airline flying all over europe and Flybe as CWL's domestic and hub connecting airline. Does anyone think this could be a possible future for CWL?
Edit: the comment is on a Social Media group i frequent and is a reply to a link about Ryanair and CWL and mentions a rumour about a base from 2018. Whether that rumour has truth to it or not i honestly don't know.

As Tinkerman says, anything is possible in the aviation world, well most things anyway.

Ryanair might look at Berlin, Munich and Rome and almost certainly Dublin and possibly Paris Beauvais or even Cork (all routes flown by Flybe from CWL or about to be). If they did it would, as you suggest, probably result in Flybe reducing its presence if it was left with what Ryanair didn't want. It might not be that bad because Ryanair might not fly to any of the routes I mentioned in the first sentence of this paragraph, although I think that Dublin would be a certainty if Ryanair expanded at CWL.

Perhaps the more interesting conundrum would be the situation with Vueling. Ryanair would undoubtedly want the main summer sun routes that Vueling already operates. Is there a big enough market for both Vueling and Ryanair on these routes? Obviously it would depend on the respective frequencies. A daily ALC, AGP and PMI from both airlines might work in peak summer but April, May, early June and mid-September onwards might be more of a challenge. Then again, what would be Vueling's attitude if a major competitor turned up?

Clearly, a substantial lo-co presence is badly needed at CWL and whichever airline came in (Ryanair, Jet2, Monarch) would almost certainly lead to a review of most of the airport's airline services. There is certainly a market for a lo-co in order to get back to that 2 mppa in the first instance but the airport won't want to rob Peter to pay Paul. It would/will be an interesting dilemma but that's what airport managements are paid to do.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

This, this is very interesting rumour. Ryanair - the low cost airline that used to have a reputation of stating 'this is what we'll pay or you'll pay us, take it leave it' is going into an airport without any substantial airline presence there. Whats the CWL catchment like?

If Ryanair were to set up this base, they would have the data from bookings that travel over the boarder to take advantage of their BRS operations. Thus the routes offered but be those that of course sell well in Wales. I can see it been a very small base with very limited growth - perhaps 2 aircraft. Personally, imo, i do think that setting up the CWL base would be an infringement on their BRS operations. Would they shrink BRS to even the balance out?

CWL an operator that will offer the Sun routes in Summer, Winter Sun routes with some Ski & City routes thrown in for good measure and commitment too. Ryanair yes will be able to offer all of those bar Ski routes. Rather see someone like Jet2, Monarch et al then Ryanair. There's no doubt Ryanair would do great things for CWL but WE ALL KNOW Ryanair just have to flick a switch and that base would be sailing down the Servern and out to the Bristol Channel.

 

[Jerry]

Peter to pay Paul.

I suppose it would depend on what each was offering. If for instance if Ryanair offered a 2 to 3 aircraft base and expansion on routes outside of Spain and Vueling was only interested in doing the just the 4 routes they offer now and are not interested in basing aircraft. It all depends on where the airport sees their future. With the Flybe operation if they operated just a Q400 operation then i can't see them operating routes to Italy or Germany from CWL.

Personally, imo, i do think that setting up the CWL base would be an infringement on their BRS operations. Would they shrink BRS to even the balance out?

Personally I don't think a Ryanair base at CWL would have much impact on their BRS operations. They operate a 10 aircraft base out of MAN and their 2 aircraft base at LPL and their 3 aircraft base at LBA seem to do fine.

Rather see someone like Jet2, Monarch et al then Ryanair

Personally i don't think we'll see Jet2 at CWL in the near future. Monarch is an interesting one and might suit CWL more than Ryanair especially as other tour operators would have the ability to book on their flights but at the moment with what Monarch went through a couple of months ago i'd be surprised if they introduced new bases and Ryanair for CWL may be the less risky option.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Personally I don't think a Ryanair base at CWL would have much impact on their BRS operations. They operate a 10 aircraft base out of MAN and their 2 aircraft base at LPL and their 3 aircraft base at LBA seem to do fine.

I did nearly write this point. However you look at LBA which, at the time of announcement, was growing had Jet2 which had the market mainly to themselves. LPL on the other hand was set up in 1991 wayyyy before MAN changed it's tune in terms of LCC. And Ryanair pulled out of MAN only to return with the tail between its legs. It may not impact it's BRS operations but i do think, knowing Ryanair, there will either be limited growth or they will reduce down to 4 aircraft.

Personally i don't think we'll see Jet2 at CWL in the near future. Monarch is an interesting one and might suit CWL more than Ryanair especially as other tour operators would have the ability to book on their flights but at the moment with what Monarch went through a couple of months ago i'd be surprised if they introduced new bases and Ryanair for CWL may be the less risky option.

Jet2 is a big ask at the moment with what the expansion they are going under! Monarch i can see but they again don't seem to like new bases at the moment - and i heard they wanted to pull LBA base but can't due to contract. But that is just a rumour i heard.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Jerry said:
I suppose it would depend on what each was offering. If for instance if Ryanair offered a 2 to 3 aircraft base and expansion on routes outside of Spain and Vueling was only interested in doing the just the 4 routes they offer now and are not interested in basing aircraft. It all depends on where the airport sees their future. With the Flybe operation if they operated just a Q400 operation then i can't see them operating routes to Italy or Germany from CWL.

I would be amazed if Ryanair set up a base at CWL and ignored the major sun routes. They've always been CWL's strength and I can't imagine Ryanair wanting to miss out on that market.

Jerry said:
Personally I don't think a Ryanair base at CWL would have much impact on their BRS operations. They operate a 10 aircraft base out of MAN and their 2 aircraft base at LPL and their 3 aircraft base at LBA seem to do fine.

It would have some effect but how much, as you suggest, might be relatively limited. However, with margins likely to be tight on many routes even a small impact could have repercussions at BRS.

The only 'evidence' we have is Tenerife. Ryanair began operating there from CWL in autumn 2014 with no decrease in the airline's BRS-TFS frequency. In the first full calendar year of operations (2015) CWL's TFS market increased by 11% to 60,728. At the same time BRS's TFS market increased by 4% to 172,766. In the first ten months of 2016 (only stats so far available for that year) CWL's TFS market increased by 25.4% to 64,829 whilst BRS's TFS market increased by 17.4% to 166,650.

It has to be said that we can't calculate Ryanair's share at BRS because of easyJet also operating scheduled flights to TFS so we don't know if Ryanair was affected by the CWL operation. All we can say is that the TFS markets (including the charter flights) from both CWL and BRS rose in both 2015 and 2016 but we don't know if the BRS market would have been higher had Ryanair not been operating from CWL.

So it's inconclusive so far as passengers numbers are concerned and we will never know the respective Ryanair yields at these two airports.

Currently Ryanair and easyJet operate head to head from BRS on Alicante, Malaga, Palma, Ibiza, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Tenerife, Faro, Venice MP and Krakow. Not all are year-round routes. easyJet also operates to Barcelona El Prat with Ryanair operating to Girona and Reus. Finally Ryanair challenges Wizz Air to Warsaw although the airlines use different airports in the Polish capital.

So there could be scope for Ryanair to transfer some of this traffic to CWL if the airline had a base (or even without a base they could use their bases at the 'other end'). If they did so they might reduce BRS rather than abandon routes altogether. To do the latter could open the door for easyJet or other airlines to fill any BRS gap left by Ryanair. Ryanair might be reluctant to give up much of what is a wealthy catchment.

For local aviation watchers it would be fascinating to see how Ryanair went about things if they had bases at both CWL and BRS although I'm very conscious that people's jobs could be at stake.

 

[Aviador]

The Cardiff airport catchment is limited in comparison with that at Bristol airport but that's not to say Cardiff airport can't continue to expand.

In many respects Cardiff airport is very similar to Aberdeen airport. It has a similar sized terminal, a similar sized catchment area in a similar location situated in a low-lying coastal area.

Passenger figures at CWL are significantly less than ABZ at around 1.1m with ABZ at 3.4m so this highlights the growth potential.

Easyjet and Ryanair might be reluctant to open new routes from Cardiff in fear it will affect yields from their Bristol operation. This is a major stumbling block for Cardiff airport to overcome with Easyjet and Ryanair being the largest airlines in Europe with the route network Cardiff airport is seeking to expand.

What's the way forward? Well, we have already seen the arrival of Vueling. Cardiff will need to persuade them to continue to expand from the airport. Alternatively, airlines such as Jet2, Norwegian or European based airlines will need to be sought.

The advantage for alternative airlines using CWL is they will have the ability to capture some of the passengers currently using BRS airport without the worry of reducing their own yields.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Highly unlikely that easyJet will serve CWL - not in the foreseeable future anyway. They are entrenched at BRS with over 60 routes and part-way through a five-year expansion agreement at the airport.

CWL needs to attract a substantial number of passengers from outside its core catchment (mainly West of England and South Midlands) and it's never been able to do this to any serious degree. The master plan of ten years ago recognised the problem and the current management is undoubtedly wrestling with it.

History shows that, sun routes apart especially in peak summer, CWL struggles to fill 150-seat size aircraft year-round. BRS with its bigger (and wealthier) catchment copes much better albeit with outside help, mainly from South Wales and Devon/Cornwall, on some routes that would be thinner from the West of England alone. So put simply, airlines know that in the main they need a lot less topping up from BRS than from CWL.

The one way CWL might be able to significantly improve its share of the Severnside market is if the Wales Assembly Government was able to set its own APD rates, but that opens up another debate.

 

[Jerry]

Jet2 is a big ask at the moment with what the expansion they are going under! Monarch i can see but they again don't seem to like new bases at the moment - and i heard they wanted to pull LBA base but can't due to contract. But that is just a rumour i heard

Problem for Monarch at LBA is that they offer something very similar to Jet2 at CWL they wouldn't have that sort of competition. Would be nice to see Monarch base at CWL but they probably need to decide where they are going as a company first before they open any new bases.

Currently Ryanair and easyJet operate head to head from BRS

Personally i wonder IF Ryanair based or increased their routes at CWL then there strategy might be to target Easyjet welsh passengers at source instead of putting on extra frequencies at BRS. But they would have to find a fine balance in order to not effect their routes out of BRS. Though if Ryanair are cautious then they could leave the door open for other airlines and end up having their routes effected anyway.

Alternatively, airlines such as Jet2, Norwegian or European based airlines will need to be sought.

Jet2 i can't see happening. Norwegian would be interesting but would they base? Personally if they just launched one route to CWL ie Gran Canaria then it could be the spur CWL needs to get Ryanair and Vueling to offer more from CWL as neither seem to get on with Norwegian! But would Norwegian be interested in CWL? Only European airline i could think of turning up at CWL would be Eurowings selling Wales as a tourist destination for Germany but apart from them I can't really see any other European airlines who could sell Wales tourist wise.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair TFS stats for December 2016, 2369 average pax 132 LF 70%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Winter 2017-2018

Ryanair has been adding new routes this week for next winter at a number of UK airports. It might be the best chance yet for CWL to get a Ryanair non-sun route or two.

 

[Jerry]

Winter 2017-2018

Ryanair has been adding new routes this week for next winter at a number of UK airports. It might be the best chance yet for CWL to get a Ryanair non-sun route or two.

Haven't they just announced Seville for MAN and BHX? Hope so would be good to see Ryanair keep expanding at CWL. They are 2 weekly on TFS for the winter so I can't see anymore winter sun routes. I believe they have started Wroclaw from LBA so i wonder if they could do a xmas market winter route like Prague or Krakow? Maybe test to see if an Eastern Europe route is viable from CWL?