CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Severn]

Thank you Jerry for sharing the numbers of pax carried on all the major routes out of Cardiff, however as has been said before, without any stats showing the load factor on the routes (which would give us an indication of how well the uptake of a particular route is), then just a number on isn't of much use!
For example, the Anglesey route carried 1054 in November, but that doesn't show whether that was 2 people per flight or 20, which would give a much better indication of how the route was doing. If posting, maybe we could also post the number of flights in that month so load factors can then be worked out and give an overall better understanding of how all the routes are doing.

 

[Severn]

(Anglesey route carried 1054 - LF of 57%)

 

[superking]

Thank you Jerry for sharing the numbers of pax carried on all the major routes out of Cardiff, however as has been said before, without any stats showing the load factor on the routes (which would give us an indication of how well the uptake of a particular route is), then just a number on isn't of much use!
For example, the Anglesey route carried 1054 in November, but that doesn't show whether that was 2 people per flight or 20, which would give a much better indication of how the route was doing. If posting, maybe we could also post the number of flights in that month so load factors can then be worked out and give an overall better understanding of how all the routes are doing.

that what you say is very hard to work out load factors when some routes have 3 operators on them. With that also some operators might cancel the operation of route for what ever reason on some days that its due to run. You can guess so far but a true load factor you are guessing.

 

[Severn]

that what you say is very hard to work out load factors when some routes have 3 operators on them. With that also some operators might cancel the operation of route for what ever reason on some days that its due to run. You can guess so far but a true load factor you are guessing.

I completely understand, however, telling us that 2145 use a route in a month is like me telling you that I've used 45 litres of fuel to drive from Cardiff to Swansea. This doesn't make sense to anyone as I could have been driving a smart car, or a tank! Only the mpg gives us more useful info of how it went! (A tedious example, but hey!)

The only way to get the LF for a route is to go into the logs and boards that SWAG so kindly offer, check that all the flights operated, then check which aircraft they operated on (and the total seat count of these type of aircraft), before working out what the total seat count would have been over the month (both inbound and outbound). Once you have that number you can use it with the total number of pax flown (issued by the CAA) to work out a load factor.

As it is now winter, all but one route operate with only one scheduled carrier, for example Dublin is now down to just Flybe and therefore making it easy to work out the LF.
On routes where there are charter and scheduled airlines operating, you can still work out LF as the CAA split pax carried into scheduled and charter as long as not more than one company per charter/scheduled is operating the route.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Press release issued today re the last 12 months showing that 1.345 million passengers used the airport in 2016, an increase of 16% on 2015.

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/new...s-a-year-of-growth-at-wales-national-airport/
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Annual Report 2016 marks a year of growth at Wales’ national airport
Cardiff Airport has marked the end of 2016 with an increase of 16% in passenger numbers for the calendar year; over 1,345 million passengers travelled through the Airport over the last 12 months.

The month of December alone saw an increase of 13% versus the same month in 2015, with airlines including Flybe, Vueling, KLM and Thomson enjoying a successful month of travelling over Christmas.

2016 - The Highlights

• We have achieved 16% year on year passenger growth
• Over 1.345 million passengers chose to fly from Cardiff in 2016
• 25% of our passengers are visitors to Wales
• We are one of the fastest growing UK airports*
• Cardiff Airport now sustains over 2600 jobs
• The overall GVA impact of Cardiff Airport to the local economy is over £100million
• Our airlines fly direct to over 50 destinations including 9 capital cities
• Our airlines fly to over 900 destinations via 11 hub airports
• Flybe launched new services to Verona, Berlin and London City Airport in 2016
• We have invested in enhancing the customer experience, safety and security
• ------

Roger Lewis, Chairman of Cardiff Airport, commented: “2016 was a watershed year for Cardiff Airport, defined by a 16% increase in passenger numbers.

“This past year has seen a fundamental and positive change in attitude and perception about Cardiff Airport and what it can deliver for the people and businesses of Wales and within our catchment area. This change has been achieved by a remarkable team of great people working closely with great airlines alongside a range of great partners.

“Twelve months ago we promised that we would grow our business and we have delivered on that promise. We have now set ourselves a target for continued growth in 2017 with more routes, at better prices, and at better times.

“We have much more work to do to achieve our objective of creating a great airport with a wide range of aviation facilities which Wales and the UK can be truly proud of. We want Cardiff Airport to become a central part of the national success story, a symbol of Wales’ global ambition.”

Debra Barber, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer at Cardiff Airport, added:

“2016 has seen significant growth at Cardiff Airport, positioning Cardiff as one of the fastest growing airports in the UK*. This growth is forecast to continue and we have announced a number of new routes ahead of the summer 2017 season.

“Delivering high standards of safety and regulatory compliance has been one of our key focuses, whist continuing to improve our passengers’ experience and on business critical infrastructure. In particular, we took delivery of three state of the art fire vehicles in April 2016 and major improvements were made to the Departure Lounge. A new walk-through duty free shopping area now offers a significantly enhanced range of products and well-known brands, and a new and improved coffee shop and bar/restaurant area now offers our customers more choice.

“We have continued our work this year to strengthen our regulatory performance. Working with the HSE, we have made considerable improvements to our safety processes and procedures and have also maintained our focus on environmental sustainability.

“The business is growing stronger and we are well positioned to deliver on our vision and mission generating significant economic benefit to Wales.”

What’s next for 2017?

• Iberia Express joins as a new airline with the introduction of new flights to Madrid departing on Thursday and Sundays. Flights will operate at Easter and then from June to September
• New airline Blue Islands announced a new service to Guernsey for the summer season. Flights begin operating on Tuesday 2 May 2017 and will operate three times a week on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays throughout next summer until 30th September
• Flybe will begin operating a new service to Rome from 28th March, departing on Tuesdays and Saturdays
• We are working closely with ‘Team Wales’ to deliver a safe and successful UEFA Champions League Final in Cardiff in 2017
• We are forecasting continued growth in 2017.

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The airport has also published an annual update (see link below) that outlines its progress in 2016 and its plans for the future. The update naturally concentrates on the airport's importance to Wales but I'm surprised there is no mention of trying to widen the airport's scope by attracting passengers with origin or final destination outside Wales.

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/uploads/Annual update 2016 - ENGLISH final.pdf

 

[Jerry]

(Anglesey route carried 1054 - LF of 57%)

Thanks for doing those load factors! I started them, then realised the time and the fact I had to get up for work in the morning!

 

[Jerry]

I'm surprised there is no mention of trying to widen the airport's scope by attracting passengers with origin or final destination outside Wales.

Maybe at the moment their strategy is to get people from the airports catchment area to fly from CWL rather than BRS or BHX or LHR. Though i do think that maybe an advertisement campaign the other side of the bridge for next summers routes like Rome, Madrid, Berlin and Munich wouldn't hurt especially considering BRS advertises in South Wales.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Maybe at the moment their strategy is to get people from the airports catchment area to fly from CWL rather than BRS or BHX or LHR. Though i do think that maybe an advertisement campaign the other side of the bridge for next summers routes like Rome, Madrid, Berlin and Munich wouldn't hurt especially considering BRS advertises in South Wales.

Around ten years or so ago when TOM tried multi frequencies from CWL to the main sun routes the company advertised them extensively around Bristol even though TOM operated these routes from BRS as well, albeit not as frequently.

Going back to the 1990s Cardiff Airport paid for a Bristol city double decker bus to be decked out in the CWL logo with all CWL's destinations painted around the bus.

It wouldn't hurt to advertise these destinations albeit easyJet operates to three of them at greater frequency and generally at cheaper fares. Munich, however, although operated by bmi regional double daily, is usually very expensive as are all this airline's fares on all routes so that one might be worth a go, as would Milan Malpensa which bmir operates from BRS almost as an in-house service for Leonardo (formerly Augusta Westland). Unless easyJet restarts Malpensa (I'm amazed they haven't) BRS's only other alternative is the 3 x weekly Ryanair to Bergamo.

Unless CWL puts its money where its mouth is and goes out to actively try to extend its catchment it never will.

 

[Jerry]

December CAA stats are in.
December's total was 73,064 up 14% on December 2015 which was 64,060. The rolling year is 1,344,273 up 16% from last December. The airport still continues to recover it's passenger numbers and hopefully can keep the growth going in January.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

In view of CWL's increasing passenger numbers in recent years following a period of shrinkage I thought one or two people might be interested in this being put into a historical context.

I have CAA airport passenger stats going back to 1961 so have listed the passenger numbers each year from then together with percentage rises/falls. The annual figures are in millions/part millions.

It is noticeable that, as in recent years, the falls have come mainly in clusters. It's usually been the result of significant recessions having a negative impact on air travel. Of the 55 years under review 35 have seen rises and 20 falls.

1961-1969
1961 0.069
1962 0.075 + 8.7%
1963 0.093 + 24%
1964 0.104 + 11.8%
1965 0.112 + 7.7%
1966 0.139 + 24.1%
1967 0.136 - 2.2%
1968 0.130 - 4.4%
1969 0.116 - 10.8%

1970-1979
1970 0.171 + 47.4%
1971 0.213 + 24.6%
1972 0.239 + 12.2%
1973 0.284 +18.8%
1974 0.230 - 19%
1975 0.209 - 4.8%
1976 0.192 - 8.1%
1977 0.196 + 2.1%
1978 0.234 + 19.4%
1979 0.254 + 8.5%

1980-1989
1980 0.261 + 2.8%
1981 0.294 + 12.6%
1982 0.360 + 22.4%
1983 0.383 + 6.4%
1984 0.429 + 12%
1985 0.387 - 9.8%
1986 0.487 + 25.8%
1987 0.632 + 29.8%
1988 0.619 - 2.1%
1989 0.696 + 12.4%

1990-1999
1990 0.593 - 14.8%
1991 0.513 - 13.5%
1992 0.653 + 27.3%
1993 0.764 + 17%
1994 0.990 + 29.6%
1995 1.025 + 13.6%
1996 1.001 - 2.3%
1997 1.124 + 12.3%
1998 1.230 + 9.4%
1999 1.303 + 5.9%

2000-2009
2000 1.500 + 15.1%
2001 1.524 + 1.6%
2002 1.416 - 7.1%
2003 1.900 + 34.2%
2004 1.873 - 1.4%
2005 1.765 - 5.8%
2006 1.993 + 12.9%
2007 2.094 + 5.1%
2008 1.979 - 5.5%
2009 1.625 - 17.9%

2010-2016
2010 1.398 - 14%
2011 1.208 - 13.6%
2012 1.013 - 16.1%
2013 1.057 + 4.3%
2014 1.020 - 3.5%
2015 1.158 + 13.5%
2016 1.344 + 16%

 

[Jerry]

Lets hope the airport can get back to 2007 numbers sooner rather than later! It will be interesting to see if the airport can continue the 13-16% growth it has over the last 2 years this year.

 

[Jerry]

I had a look through the year and I've calculated the total passengers per route for the airlines that fly out of CWL regular. I haven't included the odd charter flights or the rugby charter flights for the six nations.

Citywing/Links air Anglesey 9187
Eastern Airways Newcastle 13,463
Air Malta Malta 6942
Aer Lingus and Flybe Dublin 108,387
KLM Cityhopper Amsterdam 134,709
Ryanair Tenerife South 19,606
Vueling Barcelona 30,639
Alicante 55,061
Malaga 52,121
Palma de Mallorca 29,472
Total 167,293
Thomson, Thomas Cook and BH Air
Larnarca 18,212
Paphos 11,212
Corfu 9577
Heraklion 9259
Keffallina 7474
Kos 8551
Rhodes 16,731
Zakinthos 21,358
Faro 9262
Alicante 38,363
Ibiza 34,974
Mahon 21,080
Malaga 27,113
Palma de Mallorca 79,048
Reus 16,272
Arrecife 44,412
Las Palmas 19,070
Tenerife South 58,981
Dalaman 20,869
Burgas 17,026
Fuerteventura 1483
Barbados 1630
Montego Bay 1768
Orlando 617
Cancun 521
Total 908,710
Flybe Belfast City 43,676
Edinburgh 94,232
Glasgow 37,419
Jersey 16,630
Paris CDG 55,069
Dusseldorf 3633
Munich 18674
Cork 10,217
Milan 25,603
Verona 3700
Faro 28,352
Berlin 3873
London City 8630
Chambery 2485
Geneva 3441
Bordeaux 234
Toulouse 224
Total 356,092

 

[Jerry]

The top 8 routes for CWL for 2016
1. Amsterdam 134,709
2. Palma de Mallorca 108,520
3. Dublin 108,387
4. Edinburgh 94,232
5. Alicante 93,424
6. Tenerife South 79,587
7. Malaga 79,234
8. Paris CDG 55,069

 

[Jerry]

A tweet by Heart news is saying that the airport passenger numbers have grown by 10% in January which is good but there is no numbers and I can't find a press release by the airport to back up the claim.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

A tweet by Heart news is saying that the airport passenger numbers have grown by 10% in January which is good but there is no numbers and I can't find a press release by the airport to back up the claim.

CAA showed 59,543 for CWL in January 2016 so 10% would take the 2017 figure to over 65,000

 

[Jerry]

So Heart got the news from the airport which released it's figures.
If i've calculated this correctly the rolling year was +178,000 so should stand at 1,522,273 and the monthly total like TLY said was +10% and 65,497.
Hopefully the CAA will issue there figures before winter is over and we can have a look at each individual routes because there are new routes and extra rotations compared to last year.

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/news/2017/02/07/2017-jets-off-to-a-strong-start-at-cardiff-airport/

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Press release on CWL website now.

2017 jets off to a strong start at Cardiff Airport
The New Year is off to a strong start for Wales’ national airport, with the announcement of 10% passenger growth for the month of January vs the same month in 2016.

The rolling twelve months has seen an additional 178,000 passengers travelling through Cardiff, that’s enough to fill the Principality Stadium two and a half times over on a busy rugby international match day. This figure represents 15% growth for the rolling year.

The first few weeks of 2017 has seen some exciting announcements from our airlines, including the confirmation that Flybe has extended its daily service to London City through to the end of October. The flight, which departs up to twice a day, seven days a week, is an ideal and cost effective alternative for business customers who have a meeting in the city and want to get home in time for dinner.

Flybe has also announced the extension of its ski route to Geneva this season. The twice weekly service, which complements the weekly service to Chambery, will continue into April so that snow bunnies have more time to plan their escape to the slopes.

Looking ahead, and following a strong start to the 6 Nations this weekend, there are more opportunities than ever for Wales fans to catch the Blues away.

The Celtic clash between Scotland v Wales will take place on the 25th February with a host of rugby charter flights departing from Cardiff. 1,100 supporters will travel via Enterair, totalling 15 extra aircraft movements - in addition to Flybe scheduled flights to the Edinburgh and Glasgow which depart up to twice a day seven days a week.

Ahead of the Wales v France game on 18th March circa 1,100 Welsh supporters will travel to and from Paris on Flybe’s regular daily service as well as on special charter services operated by Carpatair and Vueling.

Almost 7,000 fans are expected to travel through Cardiff for Wales v Ireland ahead of the Celtic Clash at the Principality Stadium on 10th March. Creating more than 50 additional flight movements on charter flights operated by Aer Lingus, Ryanair and Cityjet.

Flybe’s regular, scheduled services will also be bringing in rugby supporters from Dublin which operates up to twice day, seven days a week and Belfast City, which operates daily plus a twice weekly service from Cork on a Friday and Monday.

Debra Barber, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer at Cardiff Airport, commented. “This has been a very positive start to what’s going to be a busy year for Cardiff Airport and, indeed, the capital city. All eyes are on Wales this year with plans for the UEFA Champions League final already well underway – and of course another exciting 6 Nations tournament which is currently underway.

With all of the sporting action ahead, plus the start of a new route to Rome with Flybe in March; a brand new service to Madrid with Iberia Express this Easter and Guernsey with Blue Islands in May, 2017 is off to a flying start.”

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/news/2017/02/07/2017-jets-off-to-a-strong-start-at-cardiff-airport/

 

[TheLocalYokel]

So Heart got the news from the airport which released it's figures.
If i've calculated this correctly the rolling year was +178,000 so should stand at 1,522,273 and the monthly total like TLY said was +10% and 65,497.
Hopefully the CAA will issue there figures before winter is over and we can have a look at each individual routes because there are new routes and extra rotations compared to last year.

https://www.cardiff-airport.com/news/2017/02/07/2017-jets-off-to-a-strong-start-at-cardiff-airport/

Jerry, sorry about the duplication with the press release. I'd already copied it but hadn't posted it whilst you were doing your post.

CWL is not up to 1.522 million yet, I'm afraid. The 178,000 was the additional passengers in 2016 over 2015.

CAA showed CWL at 1,344,273 at the end of December which of course is also the total for the calendar year of 2016.

If January 2017 had an increase of 10% on January 2016 the rolling 12 month total at the end of January 2017 would be circa 1,351,000.

To reach 1.5 million by the end of 2017 will require a 11-12% increase in passenger figures at the end of the year which equates to (in the region of) an additional 155,00 passengers over 2016.

 

[Jerry]

If January 2017 had an increase of 10% on January 2016 the rolling 12 month total at the end of January 2017 would be circa 1,351,000.

I wondered if i might have got it wrong. An extra 155,000 may be possible with LCY, Berlin will essentially be new for the summer, Ryanair's Faro, the new Madrid route, hopefully Cobalt, Rome, and the increases that Vueling have put on might be enough. Though the airport has lost it's long haul routes from Thomson to BRS. Would be a shame if they were the difference and the airport didn't get there because of that. But at least the airport is growing and getting new routes and new airlines to it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wondered if i might have got it wrong. An extra 155,000 may be possible with LCY, Berlin will essentially be new for the summer, Ryanair's Faro, the new Madrid route, hopefully Cobalt, Rome, and the increases that Vueling have put on might be enough. Though the airport has lost it's long haul routes from Thomson to BRS. Would be a shame if they were the difference and the airport didn't get there because of that. But at least the airport is growing and getting new routes and new airlines to it.

Taking the programme as announced (including Cobalt) it looks as though CWL will come in somewhere north of 1.45 million in 2017. I'm not sure there is quite enough meat on the bones yet to get to 1.5 million but there might be further announcements, especially for next winter, that could make that target attainable (if it is a specific 2017 target for the airport).

CWL hasn't had TOM summer long haul for about 7-8 years. TUI continued the BRS Florida and Mexico routes that had been started by First Choice before they became part of TUI but discontinued the CWL routes.

I was surprised, not just because they could not reach Mexico non-stop from BRS with the 767 but because during the 1990s and early 'noughties' CWL had been the main Severnside airport for such services, and not just with Thomson. Furthermore, there was a high profile incident involving a heavy landing with a TOM 767 at BRS that led to an AAIB report that highlighted a disproportionate number of heavy landings on runway 09 with the 767 type.

TUI stopped its BRS routes to Florida and Mexico after the 2013 summer season because the former First Choice B 767s that operated the route were phased out of the fleet after that.