BMIBaby

[TheLocalYokel]

I don't understand why CWL has done so poorly over the past three years.

I know baby never really kicked on in the way they said they would when the base was opened in (I think) 2003. As you say, they reached their zenith around four years ago and that point there was every reason to believe the base would go from strength to strength.

CWL was unlucky in that they missed out on the likes of easyJet and Ryanair, although the latter might well have established a significant presence had the airport not decided to flex its muscles in terms of charges with the result that FR withdrew its existing route to Dublin.

I know some people argue that Ryanair is a bully when it comes to airports desperate to grow and such people applaud those airports like CWL that stand up to MOL. Trouble with that is it's like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Ryanair probably could be attracted back but the CWL management would have to offer an exceptionally favourable deal (and would the airport owners agree?) because it would probably mean the nearby Bristol base being moved across the river. MOL would love that scenario - BRS and CWL fighting for the trade with FR sitting on the sideline waiting to see who would offer the lower charges.

I've said many times in this forum that I believe that Flybe is the airline CWL should go after in a big way. They operate the right size of aircraft for many of CWL's routes and with their big expansion plans wouldn't be short of aircraft in a year or two if the right offer was made.

Little Exeter does very nicely with them (I know Exeter is the airline's HQ) and Southampton has an extensive BE network.

Can't understand why CWL has never given Messrs French and Rutter a blank cheque to start a decent network. The airport would be repaid in pretty short order.

 

[Aviador]

I would tend to agree with TheLocalYokel because as he has already said, Flybe operate the right aircraft size for the type of routes CWL needs.

A few years ago Bmibaby came to LBA and looked around the airport. This was prior to the launch of Jet2. Everybody was gutted when Bmibaby then announced that they would be introducing flights to neighboring Durham Tees Valley airport with two based aircraft. Some people described it as the end for LBA.

Not long after that the LBA management announced that new start-up operator Jet2 was to start flying from the airport. The airline was to operate flights to AMS, BFS twice daily with daily flights in the summer to PMI, BGY, BCN, PRG AGP, ALC among others operating 4 x 737-300 aircraft. Nobody had ever heard of them and nobody believed the airline would ever get off the ground. Jet2 managers told staff at LBA "Look after us because we mean business and we're here to stay. We're in it for the long haul" Jet2 did exactly what they said.

In contrast, Bmibaby pulled the plug on flights from DTV and did a runner despite being tied to a contract with the airport owners the Peel Group. Bmibaby has never shown any real signs of commitment to any of the airports it has served. If they have they haven't been very good at sustaining routes which would suggest either a poor business strategy or lack of direction. Similar could be said for the airlines parent company BMI mainline which often seems to operate like a headless chicken.

 

[Aviador]

I would like to see 2xDH8 with routes to EDI/GLA/ORK/CDG/JER/AMS/GCI/LIG/NTE all being flown.

That seems like a realistic programme 'planenut321' although I think ORK and GUI might struggle. ORK and GCI routes from other UK airports don't seem to do all that well but AMS, JER, CDG, LIG, NTE should all work nicely. Perhaps DUS would also work.

 

[pug]

According to the fruit forum, WW are pulling the plug on CWL.

Judging by past mistakes by this airline, how long before they are closed down/swallowed up by another operator?

 

[pug]

http://www.ttglive.com/c/portal/layout? ... %20Cardiff

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Now the CWL base closure has been confirmed it's probably stating the obvious that Cardiff will be far worse off than MAN which as an abundance of other operators.

However, it seems pretty certain that some of CWL's sun routes will be highly attractive so I would expect another carrier to pitch up there.

Perhaps Jet2 is the favourite though it would mean losing its self-awarded title of the Northern Airline.

 

[pug]

To be honest, with the equipment WW use, I dont think it would be too far fetched to see LS absorb WW into their brand, and at the same time inherit a significant presence in the Midlands. That or the rumoured ZB takeover.

Either way I cant see WW lasting much longer in their current guise, they just seem quite directionless and unable to compete with the now bigger carriers.

 

[Aviador]

Re: BMIBaby quit Cardiff

I don't think we can under estimate how bad things could get for Cardiff airport now. Clearly the base has been making little or no money for bmibaby so if (and it's a big if) another airline comes in, they will only operate the most profitable routes so routes will be lost one way or another.

 

[Em0866]

This is all very sad for those who work at CWL and MAN who will either lose their jobs or be moved to work at EMA or BHX. What worries me is that it could make more people head for BRS to get their flights and thus CWL losing even more pax!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think the summer routes to the likes of PMI, ALC, AGP, FAO, IBZ and MAH will be taken up by someone. If they aren't (and I would be gobsmacked if that happened) it would perhaps encourage TOM and/or TCX to increase their sun rotations in summer 2012.

Jet2 might well consider these worthwhile but if it set up, say a 2 aircraft base, it might struggle to find enough work in the winter, though Egypt and the Canaries are choices it might consider together with one or two ski routes.

Flybe already operates to Scotland, Belfast, Jersey and Paris so if it increased its presence it would probably be looking at the same higher density routes to the summer sun as Jet2.

A lot of people have been hoping baby would pull out of CWL (though I hope they considered the impact on employees) because the airline, after a promising start nearly nine years ago, has gradually run down its CWL operation in recent years to the point where this summer it is merely skeletal.

However, some will argue the devil you know is better than the one you don't.

 

[pug]

The great thing about Jet2 is that they own their aircraft and so can just park them up for long periods in winter. I think BLK only has one flight a week throughout most of the winter season!!

I wouldn't rule Jet2 out, though I was rather cryptically told that after GLA they would be moving further south next. Suppose you could class CWL as south-ish.

 

[Aviador]

Strictly speaking I'm not sure that is correct now Pug. The airline did used to own the majority of it's fleet but many of the aircraft are leased nowadays. Perhaps somebody on the forum will be able to verify this for us? Certainly some of the sun routes might work, but as I said before, if the airline considers it too high a risk they wont do it.

 

[pug]

Re: BMIBaby pull the plug at Cardiff

I suppose its quite a distance from other bases to share crews too isn't it?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

End of an era

The last bmibaby revenue earning flight departed CWL at 1614 this afternoon, B 733 G-OBMP operating WW 2333 to Belfast City.

The CWL baby base opened in October 2002 amidst a blaze of optimism. This was a period when the economy was bouyant and low-cost airlines were beginning to set up home at airports all around the country.

The Cardiff management and travelling public had seen the success of Go......easyJet across the Severn and unsurprisingly thought they would be seeing a similar picture with baby. In the early weeks it appeared justified because baby's introductory fares attracted punters from the West Country in substantial numbers.

As things settled down and fares rationalised the early optimism began to falter slightly. Within a year baby had already axed routes and cut the frequency of some others.

A look at the Dried Plum archives of 2003/2004 shows that many CWL aficionados, though hopeful that the base would succeed and eventually burgeon, were beginning to throw in the odd doubt as to whether the capacity and quality of the airport's catchment would be able to provide the type of network they could see at other regional airports.

In CWL's boom years leading up to 2007 baby did pretty well for the airport though I can find no confirmation that it ever based four aircraft there - three was the maximum.

CWL and baby began to feel the effects of the recession and passenger numbers started to drop at an alarming rate. baby began to reduce its presence over the ensuing years to reach a point in the summer just ending where the base consisted of one aircraft with a second helping out at weekends.

Many believe that the airport was unlucky in the choice of its based low-cost carrier that they assert was never fully committed to the place. The evidence doesn't support that entirely in my view. It's more likely that the recession had the biggest negative effect on an airport with a vulnerable catchment in such circumstances.

What of the future? Vueling has announced a part-weekly summer route to Barcelona in 2012 and there are hopes that the airline might expand its presence at CWL. Others have pointed to Jet2 or Flybe as possible baby replacements.

I believe the key is the economy. If market conditions stabilise and then improve there seems no reason why CWL can't eventually return to its 2.1 mppa of 2007 (it's currently 1.3 mppa) which would mean a reasonable low-cost carrier presence.

Who it might be is anyone's guess.

 

[Aviador]

An end of an era for the airline and the airport.

Unfortunately Bmibaby has never really 'taken off', not just at Cardiff, but anywhere really. The airline has made a number of commercial misjudgements over the years, one of which was opening a base at Durham Tees Valley which closed soon after.

The airline has never seemed to be able to expand like the other low cost operators, this could have been because of the financial restraints associated with being tied up with the company's main operation Bmi mainline and Bmi regional.

The setting up of Bmibaby at Cardiff ultimately lead to the airport being held back. I would think the airport management will be quietly saying good riddance to the airline that has done little for aviation in Wales.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I agree that baby is the weakest of the UK low-cost airlines and made some horrendous tactical and strategic mistakes, DTV being one, as well as suffering from the group's management policy of holding it on a fairly tight rein. When LH bought the group they probably scratched their heads as to what they were going to do with baby - old aircraft and a small fleet. However, I still believe that it would have made some sort of go at CWL if the airport's catchment had been strong enough to withstand the recession in reasonable shape.

It has to be remembered that in the airport's heyday of 2007/2008 Thomson also effectively ran a sort of low-cost airline from CWL with near daily departures in summer to each of ALC, AGP and PMI offering seat-only deals (and inclusve tour of course) alongside baby.

The Thomson presence has diminished markedly since those days as well.

KLM Cityhopper which a few years ago had more weekly AMS rotations from CWL than from BRS has now slipped back in the pecking order and was not one of the airports that went up by 1 x daily this summer. It remained at 3 x daily versus BRS 4 x daily plus easyJet daily.

Other carriers have cut back or left too.

The common denominator is the the catchment. It was fine when market conditions were in the pink but not when the blues of the recession descended.

 

[Aviador]

It's a vicious circle because the local chamber of commerce will tell you air services are a necessity to attract inward investment.

 

[Seasider]

I think the fact no one (except Veuling) have come in to operate the routes that Baby operated makes it fairly obvious that there isn't a big enough catchment at Cardiff.

 

[Aviador]

I think the fact no one (except Veuling) have come in to operate the routes that Baby operated makes it fairly obvious that there isn't a big enough catchment at Cardiff.

It sounds more like another familiar problem of leakage to other airports. The Yorkshire and Humberside region has suffered from this problem for many years. I've said many times, people are like sheep and they don't like change. If the good folk of Cardiff haven't had much choice over recent years, people will have been driving to the likes of Bristol or Birmingham to catch flights. The longer this goes on the harder it will become for Cardiff airport to claw back passengers.