Flybe

[Jerry]

I can’t see they become unviable. They worked ok during Flybe’s first run at the airport. The main thing is it to have one of the best summers the airport has had for some time to encourage airlines to look at the airport for 2020

I think it depends on the timings but if i do remember correctly Flybe did bin the routes with the exception of Belfast and Jersey and then came back with the E195s.

There isn’t anything more to it, there aren’t enough Dash 8’s to redistribute 3 or 4 of these to CWL and as such our flights will have to be squeezed in around some wider re-organisation of flights times/schedules.

If they wanted to they could but what they are essentially saying that CWL (same with DSA) isn't important enough in their operations to take Q400s from other bases like MAN, BHX, EDI, BHD etc even just 2. I also believe as an airline they are becoming desperatley short of pilots because everyone is abandoning ship. It will be interesting to see which routes survive and what the frequency will be on those routes and the timings.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

What was the Virgin consortium’s purpose in buying Flybe, to dismantle it and cut jobs?
The sooner a real airline like Ryanair base in Cardiff the better, they’ll draw the passengers in with their cheap fares.

To be fair to Virgin, despite the speculation they only want what suits them, they are in partnership with 2 other investors, one of them being Stobart Air, which will likely want to keep the regional flying. They are in the business of reviving the regional Airline, albeit under a different brand (Virgin), and making it profitable and sustainable again. It is likely they are calling the shots in getting rid of unprofitable routes.
In terms of CWL, there has already been cuts to the Italian routes, which would likely means the base would require a maximum of 2 aircraft to retain the current routes. Given the regular average load factors of JER, ORK and MUC I wouldn't be surprised if these weren't profitable either. That pretty much leaves us with EDI, GLA, DUB, BHD and CDG, along with FAO but bearing in mind that would require a jet when all others don't so can be taken out of the situation.

It's likely been decided that CWL is not sustainable as a 2 aircraft Q400 base. To maintain that would mean each aircraft operating 4-5 return flights per day. Timing wise, it would be possible to squeeze in 5 flights a day on domestic and CDG routes. One of the main routes (EDI/DUB/BHD) would also either lose it's early morning departure or need to be operated by a non based aircraft. Now BMI have gone, I would've thought BE would pickup some passengers from over the bridge. CDG was 2x daily with BM and CDG seemed to be growing nicely for BE at CWL, so would be a shame to lose the route.

 

[Jerry]

If they can't make a 2 to 3 Q400 base work at CWL they might as well not bother at all.
Hopefully the airport will be able to recover from some of the damage that Flybe will inflict on it when they fold the base but i guess only time will tell.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Just adding to Foxlimayankee's post, in December 2013 Flybe announced that they would be abandoning their CWL routes to EDI, GLA, CDG and JER saying that they were not viable. The CWL management almost immediately contracted CityJet with its VLM F50s to operate GLA and Paris (switched to Orly from CDG) from 20 January 2014 and EDI and JER from 30 March 2014, effecting seamless transfers on these routes following Flybe's pull-out.

In spring 2015 the WG-owned CWL announced that they had agreed a deal with Fybe to return to the airport with a greatly expanded route network. CityJet were upset and made their feelings public - in the person of their CEO who is now Flybe's CEO.

At one point Loganair said they would also operate the EDI route in competition with CityJet, but when Flybe returned Loganair unsurprisingly quietly slipped out of that picture before their route commenced.

The ten-year agreement between the airport and Flybe was publicly announced. What was not were the commercial details which of course is sound business policy. The airport's owners undoubtedly paid Flybe a considerable sum to attract them back - the BBC said it saw a letter that mentioned £5 million - with an added attraction to Flybe being that their costly white elephant E195s would be subsidised by CWL and by Doncaster-Sheffield Airport (DSA) that entered into a similar agreement. The DSA/Flybe relationship did not appear as successful as that with CWL because the airline reduced its presence at the former last year.

It might be thought odd that CWL's ten-year agreement with Flybe has not secured CWL's status as a base following today's announcements. Either the money paid by the WG was front-loaded in the early years from 2015, or it is not sufficient to persuade the new Flybe owners that it is enough to keep open the base.

EXT seems to be continuing as a base with Q400s. I know that Exeter is currently Flybe's HQ with other Flybe facilities there as well, but the CWL overall market is larger.

 

[Jerry]

the BBC said it saw a letter that mentioned £5 million -

That sum was also mentioned in a Flybe financial report as well.

 

[superking]

If they can't make a 2 to 3 Q400 base work at CWL they might as well not bother at all.
Hopefully the airport will be able to recover from some of the damage that Flybe will inflict on it when they fold the base but i guess only time will tell.

That would mean a base which they are shutting.Some body on another forum was saying that Flybe getting rid of the jets as they would not want them on routes around the UK with no European routes.

 

[Jerry]

That would mean a base which they are shutting.Some body on another forum was saying that Flybe getting rid of the jets as they would not want them on routes around the UK with no European routes.

It would mean that they saw Cardiff as an important part of their network but I guess that in their mind CWL has served it's purpose. It occupied and paid towards the E195s so now its bye bye to the base and peoples jobs and to the progress the airport has been making and the positivity around it. Hopefully the airport will bounce back from this but it will take a while.

 

[Jerry]

As flybe are withdrawing their base from Cardiff Airport at the end of the summer why not reminisce with a selection of my videos and photos taken of Flybe aircraft over the last few years!

 

[superking]

They did the same at BRS when they took over Bacon. They could not drop the routes quick enough.This is not good for CWL as other airlines will look at it and stay clear.

 

[Jerry]

They did the same at BRS when they took over Bacon. They could not drop the routes quick enough.This is not good for CWL as other airlines will look at it and stay clear.

Only time will tell! It's sad but the airport now needs to keep moving forward. I do feel sorry though for the people involved at the airport who've worked so hard to get it back to where it is now with Flybe only to get this setback.

 

[Matthew Davies]

In fairness WX ran an old ATR on the ORY and EDI routes which broke down fairly regularly. Yes WX came to save the day but in the end they only ran a limited service. Its like 2013 repeating itself and I hope they stick with their statement and still fly from CWL but I certainly won't be surprised if they pull out all together. Leaving either Loganair or Eastern to run some sort of regional service from Cardiff, if either of them want it?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

They did the same at BRS when they took over Bacon. They could not drop the routes quick enough.This is not good for CWL as other airlines will look at it and stay clear.

bmi regional/flybmi did rock up at BRS with a number of former BACon routes and even some of the same aircraft, but it took a few years and in the end went well (not).

The likes of EDI, GLA BHD, CDG and probably JER are unlikely to be left without an operator and it might well be Flybe.

The aviation industry is going through one of its troughs with many airlines having gone to the wall in the past year or two, and the Brexit uncertainty is not helping the situation in the UK. Things can change for the better fairly quickly if history is a good guide, and it invariably is with most things,

 

[Jerry]

In fairness WX ran an old ATR on the ORY and EDI routes which broke down fairly regularly. Yes WX came to save the day but in the end they only ran a limited service. Its like 2013 repeating itself and I hope they stick with their statement and still fly from CWL but I certainly won't be surprised if they pull out all together. Leaving either Loganair or Eastern to run some sort of regional service from Cardiff, if either of them want it?

It's almost CWLs fate not to have a stable airline operating it's domestic/non sun routes unlike BRS has with Easyjet.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's almost CWLs fate not to have a stable airline operating it's domestic/non sun routes unlike BRS has with Easyjet.

Bristol benefited by attracting GoFly at the beginning of this century. The then BA-owned airline was looking for a second base to complement Stansted. Consultants sent fax messages to airports around Europe on behalf of Go without revealing its identity. Eventually a short-list was whittled down to Bristol, East Midlands, Newcastle and Edinburgh/Glasgow. I assume the latter would have been a joint base. All this is revealed in go an airline adventure a book written by Barbara Cassani, Go's CEO.

I assume that CWL was sent the same fax at that time and either did not respond or did not make the short-list. A year or two later easyJet bought Go and that's how they came to BRS, although I remember at the time there was a doubt in some quarters as to whether easyJet would take on Go's BRS legacy. They did and it seems to have worked well for both parties.

Airports like Exeter and Southampton are in the same boat as CWL when it comes to relying on Flybe as their main scheduled carrier.

 

[Jerry]

Wales Online article about Flybe leaving Cardiff.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/busin...com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wales_main

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There seems to be a view that the 'new' Flybe, whatever it's to be called, will see a primary role as a feeder for Virgin's long haul routes. If that is so and with Manchester having a sizeable Virgin long haul presence there must be a good chance that CWL will see a MAN link.

EXT's MAN link has carried 130,000 passengers in both of the last two years, making it that airport's busiest route - well over twice as busy as the next one in the list. 130,000 would have been CWL's second buiest route in 2018.

If CWL did get a MAN route I'm not saying it would handle 130,000 pa because for a start EXT has probably been feeding Flybe's short-haul routes at MAN, some of which might not operate if the new owners reorganise the airline's raison d'etre. Nevertheless, a MAN route could still generate a substantial number of passengers which would go some way to compensating for the passenger number reduction that will come about if Flybe does axe some of its current CWL routes. It would also be another hub airport of sorts from CWL.

 

[Jerry]

EXT's MAN link has carried 130,000 passengers in both of the last two years, making it that airport's busiest route - well over twice as busy as the next one in the list. 130,000 would have been CWL's second buiest route in 2018.

Although it would be nice to have a MAN route i think it would be small consolation for losing the base and potentially a lot of frequency on routes like Belfast, Edinburgh, Dublin and Paris. Also i think MAN would have some onward connecting traffic but a lot of it would have to be point 2 point. Another factor would be KLM/AF, as owners of Virgin would they want connecting traffic shifted away from their hubs.

 

[AndrewCwl]

Easyjet from Bristol are increasing Belfast and Glasgow flights no doubt on the news of flybe from Cardiff bloody shame Bristol going to gain alot from this

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Easyjet from Bristol are increasing Belfast and Glasgow flights no doubt on the news of flybe from Cardiff bloody shame Bristol going to gain alot from this

I doubt that the Flybe situation has anything to do with easyJet increasing the flights at Bristol because they are only for part of the summer when Flybe will still be operating to Belfast and Glasgow. easyJet had increased Belfast to four on Mondays several months ago and GLA is just one extra flight a week, at this stage just for September. BFS has been underserved in midweek for a while compared with the frequency of a few years ago and it, like Glasgow, has slowly been increased in the past year or two.

The other easyJet BRS increase announced this week is Zakynthos which certainly can't be laid at Flybe's door.

 

[superking]

Its very easy to put comment on what ever subject with out checking information.