Archive Flybe at Cardiff Airport

[aviatorconcorde]

I would envisage that if Stobart Air did purchase Flybe then they would likely keep the brand. After all between the franchise agreement between Stobart Air, Blue Islands and Eastern Airways the brand is far better known around the UK and Ireland than Stobart Air.

I imagine the deal that Flybe has with Cardiff Airport is a good one and maybe one that Stobart Air would like to continue and maybe in a position to expand far quicker than Flybe has in it's current form.

Cardiff Airport on the other hand will need to be looking at another leisure airline to fill the bucket and spade market so the likes of Jet2, Primeair or Norwegian will be the chief candidates or in a smaller capacity Ryanair.

I don't know if the airport has given up their quest for a Vueling base which was mentioned in an ACC meeting last year.

I agree - certainly some huge gaps in the network that need filling with regular scheduled flights. Malta, Ibiza and Paphos are just 3 I would say are high on the priority list. Flybe could potentially cover Ibiza but not the other 2.

Does anyone have a list of the biggest unserved markets from CWL?

Shame Cobalt didn't turn into anything.

 

[Jerry]

Cardiff Airport and Flybe do seem to have a very good relationship and they are building up a very good route network as well. I'd be shocked if the relationship changed just because Stobart bought them out.
What it could do is potentially accelerate any expansion plans. Another factor is their Dublin and Cork flights will they switch them all over to Aer Lingus regional or keep it as it is?
I've seen a few comments online that this could be another BMI baby but i honestly don't see that happening as from what i know of Stobarts they are an expansionist company especially there haulage side.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Cardiff Airport and Flybe do seem to have a very good relationship and they are building up a very good route network as well. I'd be shocked if the relationship changed just because Stobart bought them out.
What it could do is potentially accelerate any expansion plans. Another factor is their Dublin and Cork flights will they switch them all over to Aer Lingus regional or keep it as it is?
I've seen a few comments online that this could be another BMI baby but i honestly don't see that happening as from what i know of Stobarts they are an expansionist company especially there haulage side.

It would be good if Stobart did buy and made the decision to swap the DUB flights back to DUB based EI regional (franchised) metal, this would then free up CWL based aircraft to do other missions. A EI regional branded DUB service would also offer more transparent connections to the USA.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I wouldve thought that would ve a decision made by Aer Lingus, not Stobart. Stobart just provide the aircraft operation. Any relationship between Airline and airport is driven by financial success. Hopefully the blackbird agreement is protected by any takeover.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

I wouldve thought that would ve a decision made by Aer Lingus, not Stobart. Stobart just provide the aircraft operation. Any relationship between Airline and airport is driven by financial success. Hopefully the blackbird agreement is protected by any takeover.

While that is probably true, i would Imagine Stobart would have some degree of influence and a good relation with Aer Lingus to make a potential switch work.

 

[Jerry]

I wouldve thought that would ve a decision made by Aer Lingus, not Stobart. Stobart just provide the aircraft operation. Any relationship between Airline and airport is driven by financial success. Hopefully the blackbird agreement is protected by any takeover.

I believe it's a franchise agreement so both would have a say in the decision but if Stobart Air wanted to add extra aircraft and extra routes i can't see Aer Lingus objecting.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wouldve thought that would ve a decision made by Aer Lingus, not Stobart. Stobart just provide the aircraft operation. Any relationship between Airline and airport is driven by financial success. Hopefully the blackbird agreement is protected by any takeover.

It's an open secret that the Blackbird agreement was behind Flybe returning to CWL. I have no idea of the specific details - the BBC said in 2015 that £12 million was being provided by CWL owners for market support over a number of years. How elastically market support was/is interpreted in this case again is not likely to be put into the public domain.

It can be assumed with some confidence that Blackbird has enabled Flybe to run an operation at CWL that is viable for them as (a) it's likely that Blackbird does have some protection clauses* for both airport and airline under certain circumstances and (b) Flybe is continuing to expand at CWL.

Perhaps the crucial point to be considered for further substantial expansion at CWL is the degree to which existing routes can be made to become self-sustaining without Blackbird. All/some/none might have already reached that stage. If the majority have become profitable or are likely to very soon then Flybe, whether linked with Stobart or anyone else for that matter, could well be looking at more routes and/or increased frequencies on existing routes. If Blackbird support remains a significant element of Flybe's operation at CWL then perhaps further growth might be slower whatever the Flybe status in terms of ownership.

There are other variables of course. Airport A might be a profitable venture for Airline Z but Airport B might be even more profitable for it. That would likely have a bearing on Airline's Z's thinking to the extent that it might put more of its resources into growing its presence at Airport B than into growing its presence at Airport A.

It has to be hoped that CWL is like Airport B.

* Doncaster-Sheffield airport has what appears to be a broadly similar agreement with Flybe as CWL's Blackbird. I say 'appears' because there can be certainty that the details are identical. Nevertheless, unlike at CWL where the reverse has occurred, Flybe has cut back on its DSA programme which suggests strongly that at least in the DSA case there was room for manoeuvre by at least one party to the agreement. That CWL is expanding with Flybe can really only be taken as an indication that the airline is happy with its commercial position there, when it might not be so sanguine about its results at DSA. My third paragraph above is still relevant though.

 

[Severn]

I'm not convinced that flybe will be looking to base a forth aircraft at CWL. The number of aircraft in the fleet are reducing, and this summers peak weekly departures are down on last summer.

There is reduction of 822 departure seats per week in peak Summer 18, and 2x less departures per week than last year. London City has been dropped and Venice a new route. Below is a comparison.

TOTAL: 79 departures per week (-2 per week from 2017) / 7608 weekly seats (-822 per week from 2017)

DUB: 14 departures per week (+1) / 1472 seats per week (+98)
EDI: 13 (+1) / 1194 (-222)
BHD: 11 (+4) / 998 (+452)
CDG: 10 (+3) / 1000 (+174)
FAO: 5 (+1) / 590 (+118)
GLA: 5 (+1) / 430 (-42)
JER: 3 (0) / 264 (-38)
MXP: 3 (-1) / 324 (-148)
FCO: 2 (0) / 206 (-30)
GCI: 2 (-1) / 132 (-66)
MUC: 2 (-1) / 176 (-178)
ORK: 2 (0) / 206 (-30)
TXL: 2 (-1) / 176 (-178)
VCE: 2 (+2) / 176 (+176)
VRN: 2 (0) / 176 (-60)
DUS: 1 (0) / 88 (+10)
LCY: 0 (-11) / 0 (-858)

 

[Jerry]

I'm not convinced that flybe will be looking to base a forth aircraft at CWL. The number of aircraft in the fleet are reducing, and this summers peak weekly departures are down on last summer.

Flybe are replacing the based Dash with an E175 and one of the based E195's with an E175, so the base will be from the end of June 1 E195 and 2 E175s so less seats but still 3 based aircraft and the E175s are suited more to some of the routes. Glasgow will have a flight operated by a non based aircraft on a Sunday and GCI is a Blue Islands route.
If you look at DUB, EDI, BHD, CDG, FAO and JER they've all had frequency increases and they've introduced a new route to Venice and MXP, MUC and TXL have been trimmed because i'd suggest they are the less profitable performing routes, Faro has been increased at the expense of MXP and Venice introduced at the expense of MUC and TXL. I'd also suggest that the Blackbird deal means certain routes might be protected ie MUC, TXL and MXP.

The original deal was for 2 aircraft and now there is 3, Flybe will be learning which routes are the best ones and which are the worst, some routes like LCY will end up being dropped or go to a minimal frequency, that is no different to what they do at other airports or what other airlines do as well at other airports. I've no doubt that CWL will have future routes as targets and that both the airport and Flybe will look at continuing the expansion either by basing more aircraft or by using more non based aircraft and that expansion will be a mix of extra frequencies on the more profitable routes and no doubt new routes probably looking towards the Med, France and maybe Eastern Europe.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

The good thing about Flybe at CWL is they seem to have found a niche. They've got their core hubs elsewhere, but can't seem to make much else work (DSA/LCY). They are also tinkering with LHR and European bases.
CWL has built up quite well. If compare the route network to other BE bases, CWL actually has some good routes that you don't see at other similar sized bases.

It's been mentioned about seats available, but it's pointless talking about seats available if those seats aren't being filled. What we will likely never know, is if there is much financial difference under the blackbird project between BE basing an E195 vs an E175. There is so much more scope for BE at CWL. They have barely mirrored any of the previous WW routes, but as they are gradually downsizing I wouldn't be surprised if they don't add more just yet, unless CWL can prove to them there is money to be made on sun routes, which is likely summer coverage only. It wouldn't surprise me if they are sacrificing potential summer traffic in order to sustain acceptable winter traffic. That's where CWL's issue arises. 2-3 aircraft in the winter is probably sustainable, unlikely 4.

IF the takeover were to happen, which personally I'm not convinced it will, Stobart is an unknown brand in the UK, except for Lorries. The BE brand would need to stay. Stobart may have different views of project Blackbird and could eventually be more harsh in making Flybe profitable again. That being said, they have money behind them and could look at fleet renewal and take BE to new places.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

The good thing about Flybe at CWL is they seem to have found a niche. They've got their core hubs elsewhere, but can't seem to make much else work (DSA/LCY). They are also tinkering with LHR and European bases.
CWL has built up quite well. If compare the route network to other BE bases, CWL actually has some good routes that you don't see at other similar sized bases.

It's been mentioned about seats available, but it's pointless talking about seats available if those seats aren't being filled. What we will likely never know, is if there is much financial difference under the blackbird project between BE basing an E195 vs an E175. There is so much more scope for BE at CWL. They have barely mirrored any of the previous WW routes, but as they are gradually downsizing I wouldn't be surprised if they don't add more just yet, unless CWL can prove to them there is money to be made on sun routes, which is likely summer coverage only. It wouldn't surprise me if they are sacrificing potential summer traffic in order to sustain acceptable winter traffic. That's where CWL's issue arises. 2-3 aircraft in the winter is probably sustainable, unlikely 4.

IF the takeover were to happen, which personally I'm not convinced it will, Stobart is an unknown brand in the UK, except for Lorries. The BE brand would need to stay. Stobart may have different views of project Blackbird and could eventually be more harsh in making Flybe profitable again. That being said, they have money behind them and could look at fleet renewal and take BE to new places.

I didn't really pay attention to airline operations back in the bmibaby days to what I do now so I don't really recall a lot of it.

How many aircraft did bmibaby operate at peak summer? It could be up to 5 if i remember right. Did they ever bring extra aircraft in for the summer and strip out the capacity again in the winter?

I think we may be seeing a desire to keep a constant year round operation like what is mentioned above. I don't think flybe want to commit aircraft to routes for the summer only to park them again in the winter, like what ryanair do sometimes. We all know CWL can do very well in the summer months given the opportunity, it's a shame it obviously doesn't work for the flybe business model to seasonally park aircraft, I can see why it wouldn't however.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I didn't really pay attention to airline operations back in the bmibaby days to what I do now so I don't really recall a lot of it.

How many aircraft did bmibaby operate at peak summer? It could be up to 5 if i remember right. Did they ever bring extra aircraft in for the summer and strip out the capacity again in the winter?

I'm sure that mathers and Foxlimayankee will know more about this than me, but looking at some records I have maintained I think they had three based B737s based for a while, mainly 300 series but they also had a couple of smaller 500 series in the fleet although I'm not sure to what extent if at all these operated at CWL.

For much of the near ten-year lifespan of the CWL base the complement was two 737s. Like Vueling, baby didn't fly to the Canaries from CWL. I don't know if they did so from other UK airports. In winter the likes of AGP, ALC and PMI were reduced in frequency from the daily (sometimes a bit more than that) frequencies of peak summer.

By 2004 and 2005 baby had contracted with Air Wales (ATR42 aircraft) to operate some of the routes on their behalf, routes they had previously operated themselves. These included PIK (which baby had switched to from CWL at the end of July 2003 after initially flying to GLA), BFS, JER and CDG.

Routes that baby operated at various times from CWL, none daily, some seasonal, and some weekend-only included TLS, BGY, PRG, MUC, BCN and WAW. PRG was the longest lasting of these routes. The core routes were the likes of EDI, up to 3 x daily, ALC, AGP, PMI, FAO.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

I'm sure that mathers and Foxlimayankee will know more about this than me, but looking at some records I have maintained I think they had three based B737s based for a while, mainly 300 series but they also had a couple of smaller 500 series in the fleet although I'm not sure to what extent if at all these operated at CWL.

bmibaby did build their base to 3 x B737-300 with 148Y seats (except when G-TOYD would visit which had (149Y). At least one year on a Saturday there used to be a visiting B737-500 which on a W pattern doing the Jersey route.

In the last year of operation however bmibaby decreased their capacity to 2 x B737-300 with one of our aircraft moved to Belfast and operated mainly by Cardiff crew. At one point Cardiff was on the brink of getting a 4th based aircraft however lost out on the 11th hour as the airline wanted to battle against Flybe at Birmingham.

In the Summer Malaga and Alicante I believe were up to 8 weekly and Palma was up to daily. There was also a daily Amsterdam. Belfast, Glasgow were 2 x daily and Edinburgh up to 3 x Daily. Murcia was maybe 3 x weekly. (Sorry quite vague).

During the winter bmibaby went 5 x weekly to Geneva i'm pretty sure and was very popular.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

bmibaby did build their base to 3 x B737-300 with 148Y seats (except when G-TOYD would visit which had (149Y). At least one year on a Saturday there used to be a visiting B737-500 which on a W pattern doing the Jersey route.

In the last year of operation however bmibaby decreased their capacity to 2 x B737-300 with one of our aircraft moved to Belfast and operated mainly by Cardiff crew. At one point Cardiff was on the brink of getting a 4th based aircraft however lost out on the 11th hour as the airline wanted to battle against Flybe at Birmingham.

In the Summer Malaga and Alicante I believe were up to 8 weekly and Palma was up to daily. There was also a daily Amsterdam. Belfast, Glasgow were 2 x daily and Edinburgh up to 3 x Daily. Murcia was maybe 3 x weekly. (Sorry quite vague).

During the winter bmibaby went 5 x weekly to Geneva i'm pretty sure and was very popular.

Many thanks for that. I think that comparing baby is relevant to the Flybe thread as it gives an idea of what was and what might be achieved.

I've only got detailed records from the baby base inception date (winter 2002-2003) until the end of summer 2005. AMS hadn't started by then and GVA was just a weekend route. Perhaps the switching of some routes to Air Wales made baby's own aircraft available to operate some of these other routes. I can't remember what happened to the Air Wales-operated routes when that airline ceased operations in 2006.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

bmibaby did build their base to 3 x B737-300 with 148Y seats (except when G-TOYD would visit which had (149Y). At least one year on a Saturday there used to be a visiting B737-500 which on a W pattern doing the Jersey route.

In the last year of operation however bmibaby decreased their capacity to 2 x B737-300 with one of our aircraft moved to Belfast and operated mainly by Cardiff crew. At one point Cardiff was on the brink of getting a 4th based aircraft however lost out on the 11th hour as the airline wanted to battle against Flybe at Birmingham.

In the Summer Malaga and Alicante I believe were up to 8 weekly and Palma was up to daily. There was also a daily Amsterdam. Belfast, Glasgow were 2 x daily and Edinburgh up to 3 x Daily. Murcia was maybe 3 x weekly. (Sorry quite vague).

During the winter bmibaby went 5 x weekly to Geneva i'm pretty sure and was very popular.

Thanks to yourself and TLY for the input.

I do remember torwards the end of the bmibaby operations the aircraft being shifted to Belfast. I also seem to recall bmibahy operating one or two random routes to Stansted (not from Cardiff obviously) torwards the end of its life. I may of dreamt that up so correct me if I’m wrong.

I do remember the 3 Daily EDI flights. I remember getting on a early morning departure maybe departing at 6.30 and flying up to a snowy Edinburgh. Another occasion I seem to recall getting on a 12.30 departure. A fun little airline to fly with generally friendly crews.

I do remember them operating Murica and maybe Almera which were popular at the time.

The airport went through a tough few years from 2008 onwards and there wasn’t really hope again till the Vueling announcement!

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I'm pretty sure at peak that either PMI, AGP or FAO were double daily most days. Not sure which one, but i'm sure there was a morning and an evening flight to one, maybe two of those destinations, at least 4 or 5 days of the week. Back in the "peak days" that we refer to for PMI there were WW operating i'd say at least 10 flights per week. TOM daily, mainly on the 757, FCA, MYT either on their own metal or utilising someone like Futura, Spanair, Iberostar (I think that's the name?) Probably in excess of 20 flights to PMI a week.
It's difficult to realistically compare 2017/18 with 2007/08. I often think back at how busy it was and how much of a mix of destinations and Airlines there were then. The question is, what's changed?
- Is the economy still in a different place to what it was? Are people travelling less?
- Are flights/holidays more expensive than they once were?
- There's obviously a lot of consolidation and airlines gone out of business, has CWL just simply had bad luck and lost out as a result? (FCA/TOM, MYT/TCX, Zoom, Monarch LH, XL LH)
- Are people flying from elsewhere? How many Welsh travellers were using other Airports back in 2007/08?
Spain has seen a huge rise in demand over the past few years as a result of Egypt/Turkey/Tunisia, its a shame that's not hugely reflected by VY or new routes by BE.

Murcia was very popular. Almeria was new but I think it was doing well.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

I do remember them operating Murica and maybe Almera which were popular at the time.

The airport went through a tough few years from 2008 onwards and there wasn’t really hope again till the Vueling announcement!

I believe the Almeria route never actually operated or if it did, the. It was for an extremely short period. Barcelona was another route that started but as soon as the RDF fund ran out they pulled the service. Bmibaby also tried Ibiza.

I think the deal with bmibaby actually killed off Air Wales as bmibaby took back some of their best performing routes leaving the airline trying to find new ones.

I have said it several times I think it is Jet2 who the airport really need to fight tooth and nail for. They can fill some of the great voids that missing and will complement what's being offered by Flybe.

Realistically unless some miracle happens I can't see who else could fill the void we have.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Jet2 would be the ideal complement to Flybe, assuming that Ryanair doesn't decide to enter the CWL market in a much bigger way. bmi baby was primarily a leisure airline at CWL, albeit it did have some city routes such as Edinburgh, Belfast and Paris. Flybe, on the other hand, is the opposite and is providing CWL with a growing range of city destinations.

Jet2 therefore with its major holiday route focus would fit in with Flybe's presence admirably. Vueling, TUI and Thomas Cook would be its competitors, not Flybe.

BCN was operated in summer 2007 by Thomson and CAA stats show that 23,000 passengers were carried. It gave up after the one season and was replaced by bmibaby in the summer of 2008 when the residue of the RDF allocation was transferred to it. baby carried 12,000 passengers in summer 2008 but didn't return to the route after that.

As for "where have all the sun route passengers gone?" Thomson went in for multiple weekly departures from CWL to the Costas and Palma for a summer or two in the early 'noughties' when from memory baby would have been operating too. Thomson had a big advertising campaign in the Bristol area with adverts on bus stops and on buses even though Thomson flew the same routes from BRS but at not the frequency it was operating them from CWL during that period.

 

[Jerry]

Jet2 would be the ideal complement to Flybe,

I think it would depend on the Italian routes, it's obviously a growing market at CWL with Flybe operating 3 soon to be 4 routes, i doubt Jet2 would be interested in Milan but Verona, Venice and Rome they would probably be interested in though they could add passengers rather than take them from Flybe.
I think it would have to depend on what sort of deal and agreement that the airport and Jet2 came to.

As for "where have all the sun route passengers gone?"

The sun route passengers are still there but one of the problems for CWL is that people get used to using specific airlines and airports and the main airlines that CWL want to attract too get passengers flying from CWL are operating from the airports that benefit from the leakage. CWL needs an airline that will base and work with it and build up the network without worrying so much about it's LFs at other airports.

 

[Bcn_boy]

What about Naples?