Flybe

[TheLocalYokel]

It's weird that CWL has seen such a reduction and other airports are not, maybe they were in plan before the sale but it seems unlikely as they all had great loads. The only problem is their isn't another airline to fill the routes with the correct size planes which Flybe had. The German routes could be picked up by BMI but with BRS so close it makes it unlikely.

Of the 'smaller' Flybe airports such as EXT, SOU and CWL I'm surprised that CWL's deal with Fybe, reportedly worth several million pounds, has not unsulated it aganst any Flybe reductions until a general cutback takes place (if it does). If, still a big if because none of us knows what's going to happen, CWL does see some reductions before the likes of EXT and SOU one has to wonder about the value of the CWL agreement with Flybe. It's a ten-year deal and is not even half way through its duration yet.

I think we have to wait and see what transpires and not read too much into what appears to be the situation at CWL.

 

[Jerry]

I think from CWLs management point of view the routes they'll be concerned about maintaining is Edinburgh, Dublin, Belfast and Paris. The 4 busiest routes.
The Italian routes and Faro I'd imagine that they'd try and get Ryanair to take over.
Another possibility could be that they strike a deal with Stobart Air to operate a franchise and maybe even invest in the airport itself.
I guess time will tell.

 

[louis_walton]

I think from CWLs management point of view the routes they'll be concerned about maintaining is Edinburgh, Dublin, Belfast and Paris. The 4 busiest routes.
The Italian routes and Faro I'd imagine that they'd try and get Ryanair to take over.
Another possibility could be that they strike a deal with Stobart Air to operate a franchise and maybe even invest in the airport itself.
I guess time will tell.

I can't imagine Ryanair taking those sorts of routes on especially with the 737-800, maybe a couple in the future but probably not Verona and the German routes have a very slim chance of being picked up by them. If Ryanair further expand it will most likely start with sun routes as they are safest and then they might further expand with city routes. The CWL team are probably trying to get a route like Krakow to the airport which seems to work well everywhere with Ryanair at the moment.

 

[Jerry]

I can't imagine Ryanair taking those sorts of routes on especially with the 737-800, maybe a couple in the future but probably not Verona and the German routes have a very slim chance of being picked up by them. If Ryanair further expand it will most likely start with sun routes as they are safest and then they might further expand with city routes. The CWL team are probably trying to get a route like Krakow to the airport which seems to work well everywhere with Ryanair at the moment.

The German route would disappear unless Lufthansa took it over (not likely) but Rome and Venice are popular holiday destinations not too mention the inbound traffic and i'd imagine may be similar to routes like Malta and Barcelona in which it would see a mix of people taking suitcases for long holidays and weekend breaks. Verona would be more Italian lakes and Mountain holidays so maybe more suited to TUI but they do operate it from BHX i believe. Milan i don't see them looking at that.
It could be that with new owners CWL may be able to negotiate a new deal and maybe even a bigger Flybe base came from it? That would be nice!

 

[TOM100]

All these Flybe shenanigans are very worrying and they continue today. If (and I sincerely hope they don’t) they were to unravel - who could be looked to to provide the domestic capacity, pricing etc going forward ? Loganair is not the same set up esp given the Brexit effects and airlines not able to operate intra-European so easily. It must be quite worrying for the airports management.

 

[Jerry]

Eastern Airways would be a possibility if they survived. I don't think Stobart Air would be interested.
Ryanair would most likely pick up Dublin but would they be interested in the rest?
It's highly likely that Cardiff and Wales would lose a lot of connectivity to the UK and EU.

 

[TOM100]

I hope it doesn’t happen - I think the Eastern pricing strategy would put a lot of the Welsh travelling public off if they were having to pay £300 for a return to Edinburgh if they adapt their usual model ! The three large volume routes EDI, DUB and CDG are biggest worry. Assuming FR picked up DUB (and FAO extra capacity) I can’t see any obvious contenders for the other 2 (maybe AF or Hop for CDG). EDI would be a concern for capacity. Other routes are quite thin but these three routes are key for passenger volume. Hopefully it all works out and BE comes out stronger committed to CWL ! It shows how important BE are for CWL and the UK. Oh and I forgot about BHD.....

 

[Jerry]

I hope it doesn’t happen - I think the Eastern pricing strategy would put a lot of the Welsh travelling public off if they were having to pay £300 for a return to Edinburgh if they adapt their usual model ! The three large volume routes EDI, DUB and CDG are biggest worry. Assuming FR picked up DUB (and FAO extra capacity) I can’t see any obvious contenders for the other 2 (maybe AF or Hop for CDG). EDI would be a concern for capacity. Other routes are quite thin but these three routes are key for passenger volume. Hopefully it all works out and BE comes out stronger committed to CWL ! It shows how important BE are for CWL and the UK. Oh and I forgot about BHD.....

The only other options for the airport would be Easyjet and BA and i think there would be more chance of an A380 to JFK than either of those 2 being even interested. I think EDI, GLA and BHD would most likely be lost routes.
Hopefully that won't happen and whatever future Flybe has Cardiff will be an important part of it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The only other options for the airport would be Easyjet and BA and i think there would be more chance of an A380 to JFK than either of those 2 being even interested. I think EDI, GLA and BHD would most likely be lost routes.
Hopefully that won't happen and whatever future Flybe has Cardiff will be an important part of it.

Edinburgh, Glasgow and Belfast (and possibly Newcastle) are the major UK cities where air is the only viable option from CWL, unless a traveller is content to use surface connectivity, probably for leisure. Business passengers need flights.

I don't know how it would be overcome if Flybe did drop out but I can't see these cities remaining unconnected from CWL for long.

 

[Jerry]

From what I was told elsewhere it sounds like the routes that end in September and October will be dropped and it's apparently rumoured there will be significant winter cuts. My own opinion is that i wouldn't be surprised if the Flybe base goes back to 2 aircraft at least for the winter but probably permanently which would take CWL back to the original project Blackbird base of 2 Ejets.

 

[louis_walton]

They will most likely keep most of the regional routes at Cardiff as theirs not much competition and they are quiet essential (would the Government step in to try and save them since the rail is so tragic?) However routes that don't have at least a average of 80% load factors will have a big chance of being dropped simply because Virgin will want to try and see the green as quickly as possible so if a route isn't performing great they will quickly cut it. I have a feeling they will cut many routes in the beginning to try and see the green as quickly as possible to get share prices up and the value. Then when they feel comfortable and are building up a profit they will start to introduce more routes and up frequencies. But currently all I can imagine is lots of cuts unfortunately...

 

[Jerry]

Virgin will want to try and see the green as quickly as possible so if a route isn't performing great they will quickly cut it. I have a feeling they will cut many routes

I believe virgin will carry on with Flybe current strategy if trimming routes and frequencies. I don't think they'll do anything dramatic.

 

[Seasider]

I hope you are right.

 

[Jerry]

I hope you are right.

Me too!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

30-40 on todays early morning CWL-DUB. Maybe about the same on the belfast flight. The purser didn’t seem too concerned about the Virgin takeover though.

 

[Jerry]

Just booked on the last Cardiff to Berlin flight with Flybe! Return with KLM in the evening after a bit of planespotting at TXL!

 

[CWL94]

BE have added a 3rd daily flight on Fridays to DUB for the summer season

CWL 13:25 - 14:30 DUB
DUB 15:00 - 16:00 CWL

 

[Jerry]

That should mean if i'm correct that Dublin will be 16 weekly for next summer which is excellent news.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

With the demise of BMI and their BRS operation, is this the time for flybe to step up its German routes?
With only 2 flights per week from CWL-MUC vs BMs 2-3 daily flights, there must be scope to pick up the slack. Granted BM had LH connections and only 50 seat aircraft, but it couldn't warrant a daily or 5 weekly flight from CWL.
CDG should see a bit of a boost but it may instigate EZY to increase as well.
If BE could do a tie up with LH then FRA could be a possibility. FRA was heavily used for connections so it might be SN and KLM that will benefit there at BRS.

 

[Jerry]

I'd be surprised if they did increase Munich but it might help them get better loads and maybe keep the route going after September.
Will be interesting to see how KLM reacts at both airports!