Cardiff Airport - General Thread

[superking]

A few years back BH air did a second flight to Burgas I think on a Friday evening. The flight was a split load with BHX.

 

[superking]

One way or another it all looks good for next year. Perhaps some things you say might not happen,but then something else might happen that no one has thought about.

 

[Jerry]

Hopefully there will be a surprise as well!
IB Express was a bit out of the blue though the airport had said a LCC had contacted them quite a while before i don't think anyone expected Iberia Express and a Madrid route.
Qatar Airways as well was too many a surprise as well. Especially considering the rumours linking them to BRS beforehand.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Qatar was a great surprise to many. Given that there would have been no operational problems at BRS with 787s (assuming that is the type to be used) it would have been a commercial judgement which most people took to mean that Qatar would go to BRS if and when they began their South West service that the airline's UK manager had said was in the wind in a press article published about 18 months ago.

Madrid will be a good test for airlines to look at how the 150/190-seat aircraft perform on non-sun routes. CWL has never had a problem filling these in peak summer. Traditionally it's the winter sun and city routes that have been found wanting. BCN, a sort of sun route but mainly a city route, has done ok but this year flight timings seem to have taken their toll a bit, or so it would seem. With a based carrier operating two or three rotations per day per aircraft it is inevitable that some timings will be less appealing than others, but they will still have to be well used.

Blue Air might be a possibility for CWL next year but they might wait until there is more clarity over Brexit.

 

[Jerry]

We won't really see how well Madrid has done until October or November depending on when the CAA release the stats! June's stats for MAD will have to be discounted really because of the Champions League final and Ryanair operated a couple of flights and I'd imagine they'd be counted as scheduled rather than chartered. If IB Express does well on it then it could encourage other airlines like TAP or Czech Airlines or SAS to launch routes like Lisbon, Prague, Copenhagen, Stockholm or Oslo. Which not only would provide new destinations for Welsh tourists from Cardiff Airport would also provide new sources of inbound tourism as well with airlines more known in their own countries than say Flybe would be.
Blue Air would be interesting. If they did decide to base at CWL they would need a lot of marketing but they would provide CWL with a based airline which would have the aircraft to do longer ranged route, they would be known in Eastern Europe as well and they don't seem adverse to trying new markets. They also have the 737 MAX on order for 2019 so who knows they may look at TATL as well!
Brexit is a consideration but it doesn't seem to have put Primera Air off though they have admitted they have a Plan B but haven't revealed what it is.

 

[superking]

Cant see SAS doing any thing into CWL as EasyJet do Copenhagen and Stockholm very soon.SAS tried brs a few times with the first time they stopped routes into brs was they were in a few money problems so brs a new route it was binned.They only did about a 6 week programme into BRS and never came back with this second try. Never did hear the reason why flights didn't continue. If CWL go after SASfor the 2 routes mentioned they would have a lot of work keeping them so cant see that happening any time soon.

 

[Jerry]

EZY doing MAD daily from BRS didn't stop IB Express launching MAD-CWL. Most of the routes that operate out of CWL operate out of BRS as well and just because an airline/route fails at BRS doesn't mean it will fail at CWL as although the catchment areas overlap they are still different. I'm not saying SAS will even look at CWL I just used those airlines and routes as examples of potential airlines and routes who might be given confidence to try CWL generally looking at it as a weekend break destination for their home market. If you look at the times for MAD-CWL they are friendly for a weekend city break for Spanish tourists. An airline like SAS or TAP or Czech would be approaching CWL with that in mind looking at what new destinations they could bring to their home market and introducing Wales as a tourist destination and then what Welsh passengers they can attract, while EZY would be looking from the opposite way and the demand of the BRS market first though EZY do have the advantage of already being well known at the destination its targeting.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wasn't suggesting a Blue Air base. It was more a thought of something on the lines of Liverpool that has, I think, a couple of routes.

Scandinavia can be a difficult place to sustain routes from regional UK. The first attempt from BRS was by easyJet to CPH in 2003-2004 which was then axed, along with other easyJet routes to CPH, when the Danish government slapped on a £7 per passenger arrival tax. easyJet returned to the route in 2012 at 3/4 weekly (I forget which) but have since reduced it to 2 x weekly. In June the load factor was 91.3% spread across 319s on Mondays and 320s on Fridays. As always we don't know the yield but with easyJet's vast experience of BRS it can be assumed that this level of frequency and patronage makes for an acceptable yield, whereas a greater frequency might not.

SAS did an 8-week 2 x weekly BRS-Stockholm (ARN) route (mid-June to mid-August) using B737-600s in both 2007 and 2008 that was then axed following this airline's mega downsizing at that time when 40% of its route network disappeared. SAS also did a full summer of BRS-Oslo at 3 x weekly in 2008 that went the same way as the ARN.

SAS returned with a similar 8-week ARN service in both 2014 and 2015, heavily advertised at both ends as a tourist service, that saw average loads of 88-90% on the B737-600 but it didn't return in summer 2016. All this shows how difficult it is to sustain Scandinavian routes. easyJet's new ARN this winter is sensibly (in my opinion) set at 2 x weekly. Time will tell if this works out.

I wouldn't entirely agree that easyJet's main preoccupation is with outbound traffic at BRS. The airline says that half its passenger numbers at BRS are business passengers which suggests a degree of inbound clientele, and the West Country is a major tourist destination with the likes of Bath, a UNESCO World heritage Site, and Bristol itself one of the most popular short break destinations in the country.

History tells us that if BRS struggles with a route the smaller and less prosperous CWL catchment with a lesser propensity to fly than many areas of the UK is unlikely to do any better in the majority of cases.

That's why I think that the Madrid route is so important. If that shows it can succeed then others will surely follow.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I wasn't suggesting a Blue Air base. It was more a thought of something on the lines of Liverpool that has, I think, a couple of routes.

Blue Air at Liverpool is a one aircraft base

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for that. In that case Blue Air might look at CWL for a base. I suppose it might depend whether the likes of Ryanair, Jet2, Monarch get in first.

 

[Jerry]

History tells us that if BRS struggles with a route the smaller and less prosperous CWL catchment with a lesser propensity to fly than many areas of the UK is unlikely to do any better in the majority of cases.

The Cardiff area and the South Wales area has changed a lot and is a lot more prosperous than it used to be. Yes it has it's poor areas especially in many parts of the South Wales Valleys but those areas are slowly being regenerated. Wales and Cardiff have had a lot of worldwide exposure in recent years with things like the NATO summit, the Wales football team getting to the Euro's semi final and the Champions league final does mean that routes that historically wouldn't have worked from CWL may now stand a chance and airlines that may not have even looked at Cardiff and Wales as a destination may now be looking at it. Wales like the West country has a unique history and landscape that may well be attractive to not just Europeans but people from across the world.

I suppose it might depend whether the likes of Ryanair, Jet2, Monarch get in first.

It will be interesting to see what happens especially with Ryanair in whether they expand their offerings or just keep it as it is. If a LCC is too come along and base then out of the 3 i wonder if Monarch could be the dark horse as although they have been in a spot of trouble they have ordered extra aircraft and with the routes they offer many could do well at CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Good points about the increasing prosperity in Wales but has the situation changed to the degree that a raft of non-sun routes is sustainable with 150/190-seat aircraft? That's why I keep labouring the point about Madrid. That can become the bellwhether.

We know that loads in themselves are not a clincher when it comes to route sustainability. Wizz axed Kosice from Bristol in June with a final month load factor on the route over 93%.

 

[Jerry]

There is a rumour on the Wales Air Forum that BA are looking at using the BAMC facility at Cardiff Airport for the future maintenance of their A350-1000 aircraft. According to wiki they have 18 on order but there is no due date. If that is true then that is good news for the facility there.

 

[Jerry]

I think this has been written before by Sion Barry from Wales Online but he's written or rewritten an article about why Wales should have it's own airline in light of the loss of the LCY route.
It's an interesting proposal and obviously no one would want to clash with the existing airlines but could it be a good way of getting to the airport routes like NYC or Toronto or Orlando or if Flybe in the future plan to remove the E jet base and just have Dash aircraft take over the routes like Rome and Milan and be used as a tool to promote Wales and provide economic links to places in Europe and North America. Obviously any endeavour like this would have to make money and be run at arms length from the Welsh Government like the airport is.
Another possibility though could be having an airline like Flybe operate it and sell the tickets through their website but just have 'Air Wales' or 'Wales Air' or 'Air Cymru' branded aircraft or aircraft branded to promote Wales itself.
Could be worth a feasibility study at least.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-opinion/wales-should-state-airline-13464427

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The immediate reaction is it's a non-starter. Airlines can be expensive to start up and then run, and governments aren't often good at this sort of thing, at least in the democratic West.

My other concern about the idea is that its proponent has long come over more as a supporter of CWL than as a serious business editor when it comes to Welsh aviation. In the days when Carwyn James was spouting so much nonsense about CWL Sion Barry seemed to be his public relations man. I have very little confidence in anything that Mr Barry says about the Welsh aviation scene.

Right, having stuck in that particular knife I will say that a serious look at the idea might not be out of court. Let's have a detailed look at the pros and cons, albeit that itself will cost some money if done properly. I wouldn't like to see an aviation analyst company telling the Welsh government what it thinks it wants to hear.

Why he thinks that Bristol Airport would be bothered I can't think. It would be no more than another airline at CWL. The people who could be more exercised might be the owners of other airlines at CWL despite Mr Barry's spotter's suggestion that the Welsh national airline would steer clear of existing routes. Why would they if those routes were likely to be profitable? Officers and managers of an airline company have a duty to their shareholders, in this case the tax payers, to run the company in the most profitable and sustainable way.

 

[Jerry]

Thinking about in a way Flybe is essentially acting as a national airline for Wales at the moment. It does operate most of the routes that any potential national airline would operate if Flybe weren't at the airport. Instead of a Welsh airline then maybe looking at a similar arrangement that the airport has with Flybe but for longer routes and in the future maybe getting Flybe to paint up a Wales branded aircraft to promote Wales as a destination.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thinking about in a way Flybe is essentially acting as a national airline for Wales at the moment. It does operate most of the routes that any potential national airline would operate if Flybe weren't at the airport. Instead of a Welsh airline then maybe looking at a similar arrangement that the airport has with Flybe but for longer routes and in the future maybe getting Flybe to paint up a Wales branded aircraft to promote Wales as a destination.

Given what appears to be an excellent relationship between Flybe and the airport owners (the WG) that (branding) would seem to be something that could easily be achieved.

 

[superking]

A few years ago brs was looking to set up its own airline. I did not look into it much but the main thing about airports owning a airline was operating well used routes. If that happrnrd then airlines already doing these routes would walk away from which ever airport. There was a few otherpoints as well cant remember what,but airports owning airlines don't mix/work.
You only got to look at southend and that will answer many points,as not going well at all.
My thoughts on it is airports stay at airports and airlines stay as airlines. Which ever they both do their operations well.

 

[Jerry]

In Cardiffs case it wouldn't really be the airport owning the airline but both being owned by the same parent company. In this case the Welsh government.

Southend is an interesting case. I've heard mixed things about the operation but it does sound like Stobart are still finding their feet there, it may take them time to find which routes work and which don't, similar to Flybe at CWL. Southend though has what CWL would love to have and that's a 3? aircraft Easyjet base!

 

[superking]

In Cardiffs case it wouldn't really be the airport owning the airline but both being owned by the same parent company. In this case the Welsh government.

Southend is an interesting case. I've heard mixed things about the operation but it does sound like Stobart are still finding their feet there, it may take them time to find which routes work and which don't, similar to Flybe at CWL. Southend though has what CWL would love to have and that's a 3? aircraft Easyjet base!

Southend forum talking about the A320 neo will be weight restricted at southend due to the engines heavier, and the runway problems they have there. I think with the brexit airlines are waiting to see how things pan out as all very uncertain.