CWL is always going to fall behind in this situation as there's bigger Airports that need capacity filling. CWL has already seen expansion from this year, EXT's level of expansion wasn't great in comparison. TUI will know where it's customers are coming from and have probably realised TCX were attracting people from the same areas and trying to now spread out the capacity through the huge Southwest market. To me this is TUI flexing it's muscles and covering all areas.
Also bear in mind that TUI have planned huge expansion next year, even with the Max being delivered, this isn't on the scale that they were probably planning had the Max arrived on time and TCX still been around. That being said it could be that they've reached a cap on expansion given the level of new/leased aircraft capacity they are going to need. IF the Max doesn't come back by next summer they have either A) planned a contingency of backup aircraft or B) the planned expansion is based on a proportion of Max flying not being accounted for if it doesn't return, with announced expansion based on leased in aircraft, where if the Max does come back, it's a bonus and leasing contracts could not be taken up, or even could lead to another bout of expansion early next year.
 
Winter 2020/21 for TUI
Paphos 1 weekly Wednesday (doesn't operate in December, January and February except 24/2/21)
Alicante 2 weekly Tuesday and Saturday
Gran Canaria 1 weekly Saturday
Lanzarote 2 weekly Sunday and Thursday
Malaga 1 weekly Sunday
Tenerife South 3 weekly Monday, Tuesday and Friday
10 weekly flights but only 9 in December, January and February.

Dubai Al Maktoum 1 departure 18/1/21
Barbados 2 departures 28/2/21 and 28/3/21
Jamaica 1 departure 2/2/21
 
It's a shame they are not expanding more from CWL, when they are expanding a lot more from the larger airports, but as you have said previously Jerry, they have bigger fish to fry. Let's hope for more at a later date.
 
It's a shame they are not expanding more from CWL, when they are expanding a lot more from the larger airports, but as you have said previously Jerry, they have bigger fish to fry. Let's hope for more at a later date.
Winter they don't seem to be bothered to offer much more. I had hoped that maybe they would take LPA to 2 weekly and that Paphos will continue in December. I suppose we can hope that they'll add more but i'd be shocked if they did. It then begs the question of how the airport is going to expand if it's only based airline won't add flights in the winter.
 
TUI Summer 2021 so far
Bourgas 1 weekly Monday
Dubrovnik 1 weekly Thursday
Larnaca 1 weekly Sunday
Paphos 2 weekly Sunday and Thursday
Corfu 2 weekly Monday and Friday
Crete Heraklion 1 weekly Sunday
Kefalonia 1 weekly Tuesday
Kos 2 weekly Wednesday and Saturday
Rhodes 2 weekly Wednesday and Saturday
Zante 2 weekly Tuesday and Friday
Naples 1 weekly Wednesday
Faro 1 weekly Thursday
Alicante 2 weekly Tuesday and Saturday
Gran Canaria 2 weekly Thursday and Saturday
Ibiza 3 weekly Wednesday, Friday and Saturday
Lanzarote 2 weekly Sunday and Thursday
Malaga 2 weekly Sunday and Wednesday
Menorca 2 weekly Monday and Friday
Palma de Mallorca 6 weekly Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.
Reus 1 weekly Tuesday
Tenerife South 2 weekly Tuesday and Friday
Enfidha 1 weekly Friday
Antalya 2 weekly Sunday and Thursday
Dalaman 2 weekly Monday and Thursday

So far 44 weekly departures for Summer 2021 at peak summer so 3 weekly flights less than Summer 2020. No Monday Tenerife yet and no Tuesday Dalaman other carrier either, Antalya Sunday is down for other carrier. No PMI other carrier either yet and no Hurghada so either it's dropped or they are mulling whether to change it to Sharm el Sheikh only time will tell.
 
So DSA will get a second based aircraft for winter 2020/21. What do we think that the chances are of Cardiff getting one or even a part based aircraft?
 
DSA has quite a lot of competition quite close to them with LBA, and Manchester, but I notice that some of the expansion is on long haul, we would be up against that with TUI who seem to prefer BRS for long haul except for cruising in the winter when CWL gets more cruise flights. Still we can only hope for better times
 
DSA has quite a lot of competition quite close to them with LBA, and Manchester, but I notice that some of the expansion is on long haul, we would be up against that with TUI who seem to prefer BRS for long haul except for cruising in the winter when CWL gets more cruise flights. Still we can only hope for better times
TUI seems to ignore LBA and concentrate its Yorkshire offering on DSA. LBA has a very big Jet2 base though.

The winter cruise flights from CWL always do well and seem to give the lie to the idea that CWL can tend to struggle a bit in winter when it comes to finding bodies to fill aircraft. CWL always did extremely well with the summer Florida and Caribbean holiday flights, certainly in terms of filling the aircraft which makes it puzzling that, the odd venture apart, it hasn't seen regular summer flights to these destinations for probably a decade.
 
I think the decline in long haul from CWL started to take place when the chief exec of first choice took over at Thomson, First Choice had always been stronger at BRS,and he started to move flights there.
 
I think the decline in long haul from CWL started to take place when the chief exec of first choice took over at Thomson, First Choice had always been stronger at BRS,and he started to move flights there.
Yes, I remember that being said at the time and afterwards. Surprising in a number of ways because the 767-300s used from BRS, which were the original First Choice machines with fewer seats than Thomson's, still usually struggled to fly non-stop outbound. Even now the 787s sometimes have to take on fuel at either MAN or EMA to reach Cancun when the en-route weather is unfavourable. Florida doesn't seem to be a problem, although I have read suggestions that not all seats on the aircraft are available, although CAA passenger number stats suggest that in high summer not many, if any, seats are taken out of use.

Another factor that one might think could have played a part was the heavy landing of a TOM 767 at BRS in 2010 that caused considerable damage to the airframe. A subsequent AAIB report found that there had been a disproportionate number of heavy landings with 767s on runway 09 at BRS. It didn't deter TUI from continuing with its 767 programme from BRS for severel years afterwards or eventually replace those aircraft with 787s.

I can't think that these are routes that the BRS management would pay TUI a large subsidy to operate. If they thought they had a chance of one of the MEB3 then perhaps, even probably, but charter flights to the sun? So the rationale still seems unclear.
 
It's frustrating as winter is just stagnant. They just don't seem to be interested in adding more flights.
As for the cruise flights if they carry on reducing then in a few years time they'll be gone.
 
It is a shame, when you realise that CWL several years ago, had up to 7 TATL flights a week, TUI to Santo Domingo, Cancun, and Orlando, Thomas Cook to Orlando, Worldways and Air Transat to Toronto, and for a short time a charter to New York but I am unable to remember the small American airline that flew it/
 
I really can't see any of that summer charter long haul ever returning.

i agree, i think times have changed. Carriers like Norwegian didn’t exist back then offering dirt cheap fares. the legacy airlines have been dragged down to that pricing level so everyone is paying less. It’s not uncommon to see £250 to new york from london.
 
I really can't see any of that summer charter long haul ever returning.
APD devolution would be a huge factor. From April long haul APD wll rise slightly to £80 (£176 in higher classes of travel). For APD, long haul (or Band B as it's officially called) is classed as journeys over 2,000 miles from London to the capital city of the destination country involved.

Next summer TUI will operate both Bristol to Sanford and Bristol to Cancun 2 x weekly from May to the end of October. Both destinations will also be operated once weekly in April and Cancun will also be once weekly in November.

Ignoring under 16 travellers who don't pay APD on the lowest class of travel (ie normally economy), if an average of 200 over 16s travelled on these outbound flights that would bring in APD revenue of over £1.75 million a year. If the WG abolished APD TUI could keep fares as they are now at BRS and pocket the entire APD equivalent if they moved the operation to CWL. That would be a very big incentive to do so.

TUI will also operate frrom BRS to Hurghada and Cape Verde once weekly all next year with HRG 2 x weekly from November. Sharm el Sheikh will be weekly from May and 2 x weekly from November.

Assuming just 100 adult passnegers per outbound flight the APD take would be at least £1.25 million for the routes listed in the previous paragraph. So TUI could pocket another hefty sum if they moved those flights to CWL.

I'm not suggesting all the flights would be moved because catchment sizes come into it but I would be extremely surprised if some weren't.

Incidentally, it also gives the lie to the claim so often made that devolving APD for direct long haul flights would not affect BRS because it has none. Clearly it has. easyJet also flies to Hurghada 2 x weekly in winter.
 
APD devolution would be a huge factor.
I think it would be a consideration yes but I'm sceptical that TUI would potentially move Cancun and Orlando to CWL as I don't think it's guaranteed that the English passengers would follow. Maybe if they were looking at adding extra frequencies for the area?
I do think that APD might help more with a scheduled long haul airline like United or Delta?
 
It is a shame, when you realise that CWL several years ago, had up to 7 TATL flights a week, TUI to Santo Domingo, Cancun, and Orlando, Thomas Cook to Orlando, Worldways and Air Transat to Toronto, and for a short time a charter to New York but I am unable to remember the small American airline that flew it/

C.P Air DC8/DC10 and B747 - Toronto,and Zoom B767 - Toronto+Vancouver,plujs I think it was Trans Ocean DC8 done a small New York stint in 89.
 

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