United Airlines

[Land23R]

I know some feel seat plans are unreliable but I believe what they show say 30 minutes before SDT is a reasonable picture if not absolutely accurate. Based on those, both EWR and IAD have had some very disappointing outbound loads in recent weeks although today they looked appreciably better. Fortunately, J class has usually been reasonable and on occasions full (assuming not too many free upgrades) and I've no idea how significant freight might be on the b757.

It looks to me as if TCX has diluted the pax of the US carriers to NY and not just grown the market, particularly United perhaps. I should say that DL seems to have fared much better, perhaps because of the VS link.

 

[User001]

Loads to the USA from all of the U.K. Have been low for the past few weeks.

There have been some B747's from LHR-JFK with just 12 pax on one flight, some flights with 30-ish and one flight went out with zero, yes zero booked pax (still ran as a better load on the return).

It's not a MAN issue, it's general at this time.

 

[Land23R]

Interesting point User001. Have to say I've been surprised myself how many empty seats there appear to have been on some of the LHR flights, although not surprisingly the vast majority have been in Economy. They usually seem to find enough Business pax though.

One reason I mention the possible TCX impact is (from an admittedly occasional rather than frequent check), United's BHX flight to EWR has not dropped quite so much. As you know, both BHX and MAN have seen LFs in the past on the EWR route pretty consistently well over 80% and often >90%. If the CAA get their act together, it will be interesting to see what the stats actually show from April onwards. I wonder whether it's the use of narrow body a/c that makes UA more vulnerable as much as fare variances or don't most pax know or care what sort of a/c it is?

 

[User001]

Comparing our EWR service to BHX is a fruitless task.

BHX-NYC has grown by about 180 seats each way in the past 12 months. The size of Brum should be more than capable of absorbing those seats without major retractions, but they too have had low-ish loads the past few weeks.

MAN-NYC has grown by Up to 500 seats each way, with the addition of TCX, new delta, then upgauged delta and earlier use of B767 by AA.

Of course it's going to make a slight dent in the incumbents, it was inevitable. However, the growth on JFK has more than offset the loss on EWR, so, it's fair to say the market has grown.

With VS/DL already committed to adding a further 50 extra seats each way next summer, as well as having it from a UA rep direct that there will be a B767 on EWR, as well as potential Norwegian, then it's safe to say that the operators out there still see room for growth in the NYC routes.

 

[Dobbo]

Not sure about the plane as a whole I haven't had chance to ask her but certainly she said that there was no-one next to her and the guy behind had all 3 seats to himself

I don't know if things like the pound weakening and political movements have affected UK-US travel, but there certainly seems to be a downward trend as higighted by Land and User...

 

[Dobbo]

With VS/DL already committed to adding a further 50 extra seats each way next summer, as well as having it from a UA rep direct that there will be a B767 on EWR, as well as potential Norwegian, then it's safe to say that the operators out there still see room for growth in the NYC routes.

Hi User - did you receive any information on when this UA change would be made and/or where Norwegian are with their and for MAN (or - even not directly relevant - for BHX/EDI)?

 

[Dobbo]

Some negative news, the Washington flight has been suspended for the forthcoming winter season. No reported changes on the EWR flight as of yet. Previously expected that it would be upgraded to B763 but there must be a question mark hanging over that.

We are, of course, expecting UA to codeshare on the forthcoming MAN-IAH service operated by SQ.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38...e-united-w16-international-operation-changes/

 

[Jerry]

Some negative news, the Washington flight has been suspended for the forthcoming winter season. No reported changes on the EWR flight as of yet. Previously expected that it would be upgraded to B763 but there must be a question mark hanging over that.

We are, of course, expecting UA to codeshare on the forthcoming MAN-IAH service operated by SQ.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38...e-united-w16-international-operation-changes/

It's probably more cost effective for them to codeshare with SQ and use the plane on another route! At least MAN isn't losing the route altogether.

 

[Aceshigh]

Well it looks as though it might go to me.....!!!!

A summer only service doesn't cut the mustard.

Adding Houston daily is excellent but losing Washington is significant and realistically places any additional routes not yet announced in serious doubt !

 

[Land23R]

Well it looks as though it might go to me.....!!!!

A summer only service doesn't cut the mustard.

Adding Houston daily is excellent but losing Washington is significant and realistically places any additional routes not yet announced in serious doubt !

At present IAD does seem to return sometime during April'17 but that of course could change. I've not checked the frequency in May/early June which is as far as the schedules go.

The volume of flights from DUB to the States by EI and the US3 is way out of proportion for the size of country, so the amount of transfers from the UK must now surely be significant. Extra flights from MAN to DUB is no consolation!

I don't suppose our new Chancellor of the Exchequer will do anything about APD.
I

 

[Jerry]

It's probably more cost effective for them to codeshare with SQ and use the plane on another route! At least MAN isn't losing the route altogether.

Well it looks as though it might go to me.....!!!!

A summer only service doesn't cut the mustard.

Adding Houston daily is excellent but losing Washington is significant and realistically places any additional routes not yet announced in serious doubt !

But if SQ are doing the route instead then the route isn't lost and maybe United need the aircraft for a new MAN route or a new route to other regional airports in the UK. ie BHX? Or GLA? Or EDI? And surely there is only a certain ammount of demand for the US out of MAN? Maybe a different route in the winter would be better?

 

[Land23R]

Jerry, are you getting confused between IAH Houston, (SQ we hope) and IAD Washington (currently United)?

 

[Jerry]

At present IAD does seem to return sometime during April'17 but that of course could change. I've not checked the frequency in May/early June which is as far as the schedules go.

The volume of flights from DUB to the States by EI and the US3 is way out of proportion for the size of country, so the amount of transfers from the UK must now surely be significant. Extra flights from MAN to DUB is no consolation!

I don't suppose our new Chancellor of the Exchequer will do anything about APD.
I

Jerry, are you getting confused between IAH Houston, (SQ we hope) and IAD Washington (currently United)?

Yep sorry I have! Note to self read it properly! Thought United had added Houston.

 

[Land23R]

Well it's possible they may code share with SQ on IAH.

 

[Dobbo]

From UA's perspective The capacity lost on MAN-IAD (seasonal B757) would be replaced by codes haring on SQ's proposed MAN-IAH (daily B77W).

It is not the same route, but I suspect UA connections are stronger at IAH.

 

[David_itl]

UA's problem is that although the 757 may be the right aircraft for regional UK ops, it now has the perceived "lack of quality" compared to the competition - they may well feel that they could attract more passengers over a codeshared IAH route than they would doing IAD on their own. What I wouldn't mind betting on is that if IAD doesn't comeback, then the EWR service will be boosted to 767s to cater for increased travel to the States in summer time.

 

[ethanegcc]

I have just thought of this but couldn't United code share on the new SQ51/52 from MAN-SIN and SQ on UAs routes from MAN-EWR and IAD which would make an effective routing from EWR/IAD to SIN?

In reply to the above, many people I have spoken to would fly with DL 763/VS 333 or even AA 332 just to get away from that pesky 757. It has enabled many routes across Europe but it is just not popular with customers so with SQ in the mix, how much disparity will there be between the products of two partners and full service airlines operating transatlantic from MAN?

A 763 to EWR would definitely make a difference.

 

[Dobbo]

I think the issues UA face are:

1. IAD is a bit of a nightmare for connections;
2. The 757 is perceived in a negative light by passengers; and
3. The capacity pouring into JFK and the connections that offers.

They also probably knew or had a heads up about SQ to IAH which I expect they'll codeshare on.

 

[ethanegcc]

Given that United will codeshare on SQs IAH route that will provide growth but how will United go from here in MAN will they:
1) Scrap IAD, put a 767 on the EWR route
2) Scrap IAD, put a second daily 757 on the EWR route
3) Keep IAD seasonal 752, keep EWR the same
4) Keep IAD seasonal, put 767 on EWR
5)Scrap IAD and launch a route to ORD given there growing base there, keep EWR the same
6) Above but put two EWR 752s
7) Above but put the 767 on EWR
8) Extremely unlikely but keep IAD seasonal and EWR and add ORD

???

This summer EDI had more flights to the US than MAN did with UA. I understand we have an ORD link and EDI doesn't but surely there is more market from MAN?

 

[Dobbo]

I suspect nothing will change, but the "season" for the IAD flight will be shorter.

It may be that they bring the 767 on the EWR route but my expectations are not particularly high.